28JAN09:
Q1-09 DOW: 8900
Q2-09 DOW: 7250
Q3-09 DOW: 5810
Q4-09 DOW: 3960
CITI NATIONALIZED
OBAMA GETS SICK 27AUG09:
Mini Crash 21SEP09 Predicted correctly:
Bailout=Bonuses
Demise of Bear Stearns
Demise of Lehman Bros.
Demise of AIG
Subprime would cause problems
Date of 2007 crash
CRAs were to blame
G20 riots were a party
Northern Rock run
Northern Rock Nationalization
HBOS and RBS demise
UBS really was Useless
A bit like predicting the second coming or the end of the world, if I get the date of the crash wrong there is no need to worry. There will be another time when you will listen to my words because I have got it right in the past. But it will happen.
Of course like Peter and the Wolf, if I cry too many times, nobody will listen. So I will only say it once.
Worrying trend Last Friday I had an especially long lunch in the depths of Mayfair. Without name dropping I had Russell Brand on my left and Tim Rice to the right. Amongst the silicon and botex there were also a number of Saville Row suits, Rolexes and colored string bracelets. I believe these are friendship bracelets and exchanged between friends. Across 5 tables I counted 3 string bracelets. That means 60% of all men in suits are wearing stupid jewelry.
As a minority I demand my human right not to wear one.
Revenge of the Clones Here is some blurb from Goldman Sachs hedge fund replicator. It is the funniest product disclaimer I have read in a long time. It is like saying "This car, which is a VW, aims to replicate the performance of a Ferrari but without having any parts of a Ferrari. In fact it is a Donkey"
Here you go (there was a spelling error in the original where replicate had a p missing but not wanting to embarrass Goldman's poor usage of a spell checker, I applaud them for the fintag style of typo errors) ....
GS ART reflects theory that returns of hedge funds ("HFs") are composed of both “beta” (or varying market exposures) and “alpha” (or manager skill). The returns of a highly diversified and passively managed portfolio of HFs may have more beta than alpha. GS ART seeks to approximate this beta component in a liquid, transparent, cost efficient manner using exclusively return data from third party database widely available to subscribers. GS ART hence reflects the return of a dynamic basket of long and short investable Market Factors determined by an algorithm to approximate patterns of returns of hedge funds as a broad asset class. The Market Factors are screened annually and re-weighted monthly using defined statistical analysis. Before considering an investment in GS ART, you should read the full disclosure document which contains important information. GS ART is not expected to be able to track HFs returns very closely; instead it should be viewed as an independent asset class that is expected to display patterns of returns over time broadly resembling returns in HFs as a broad asset class. Tracking errors could arise due to i) HFs invest in a broader set of Market Factors, ii) GS ART based on historical return data and iii) GS ART incorporates certain weighting constraints (more information available on request).
FIVE MORE U.S. BANKS ARE SEIZED, PUSHING TOTAL FOR YEAR TO 89
Lenders in Illinois, Iowa, Missouri and Arizona collapsed, pushing the number of bank failures to 89 this year amid continuing fallout from the worst economic slump since the Great Depression.
Illinois lenders InBank of Oak Forest and Platinum Community Bank of Rolling Meadows; Vantus Bank of Sioux City, Iowa; First Bank of Kansas City, Missouri; and First State Bank of Flagstaff, Arizona were shut by regulators, and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. was named receiver, the agency said in statements yesterday. Closing the lenders, with combined assets of $1.1 billion and deposits of $982 million, will cost the deposit insurance fund about $401 million.
Fintag says Not big banks, that is for sure but it seems strange that a failing bank is seen as a normal course of the business cycle.
M'LEARNED FRIENDS MAKE HAY WHILE CITY LAWYERS SUFFER
An increase in legal disputes arising from the credit crunch led to a record year for Britain's top commercial barristers, with overall turnover increasing 14 per cent to £750 million, according to research published today.
As many of the City's top solicitors' firms struggled because of the slump in deals, their counterparts at the Bar were busier than ever, according to The Lawyer, the trade magazine. Eight London chambers made revenues of more than £30 million in 2008-09.
Fintag says There are a number of senior partners who haven't drawn any income in the past year. You see, unlike bankers, lawyers make money in good times and take a hit in the bad times which is how it should be.
The latest film by Michael Moore, the US documentary maker, says that capitalism is "evil". Capitalism: A Love Story, targets the big banks and speculators who have been blamed for contributing to the global financial crisis.
"You have to eliminate it and replace it with something that is good for all people and that something is democracy."
The bad guys in Moore's mind are big banks and hedge funds which "gambled" investors' money in complex derivatives that few, if any, really understood and which belonged in the casino.
Meanwhile, large companies have been prepared to lay off thousands of staff despite boasting record profits.
Fintag says Obama take note: Michael Moore should be hired as a special consultant to help sort out Healthcare and other issues of a socialist nature.
If you are looking for a job as an extra, then take a look at this (ht dealbreaker): Casting for Wall Street 2
BANK REFUSES ARMLESS CUSTOMER DUE TO LACK OF THUMBPRINT!
Another day, another story Bank of America could do without.
But this time, it's a 'jobs-worth' over at the bank's retail arm (forgive the pun) who is to blame. Fox News reports that an armless man went into a BofA branch in Tampa, Florida, to cash a check.
Steve Valdez, who was born without arms and wears prosthetic devices, was apparently turned away - and all because he couldn't produce a thumbprint to confirm his identity! Valdez was incredulous, as he even provided two photo IDs. He later received a telephone call of apology.
Fintag says Seems rather insensitive. Almost as bad as being a Brit going thru US Immigration at JFK.
While the banking crisis blew the world's economic system to pieces last year, financial regulators from the Isle of Man were talking to their counterparts at the Financial Services Authority in Canary Wharf.
Of uppermost concern was the future of troubled Icelandic bank, Kaupthing. Iceland's own financial crisis was about to claim its most high-profile victim. And the bank's Isle of Man division had assets worth an estimated £900m. Should Kaupthing's Isle of Man branch funnel its cash back to Iceland, or take it to what it assumed to be a safer haven, its London outpost? What the FSA advised is not clear, but what is indisputable is that the island approved the release of £532m of the assets to the London arm.
Fintag says No, this is dull. This story is however quite interesting...
guardian says " iPhone makes worldwide loss, says report "
Almost a year after it filed for bankruptcy, the value of Lehman Brothers shares has soared amid a surge in trading activity.
Other bankrupt companies - where the value of shares is usually close to zero because equity investors are compensated only after all creditors have been repaid - have also seen a frenzy of trading in the last few days.
“People lost so much money last year and they are so desperate to recoup their losses, that they are willing to invest in anything,” said Brad Golding, portfolio manager of CRC Financials Opportunity hedge fund in the Cayman Islands. “Everyone wants a lottery ticket.”
Fintag says Ha, this is diversification gone mad! Happy Birthday to Noumra and BarCap who enjoyed the Lehman's cake last year. Is it really a full year that my collateral has been stuck at LBIE?
An SEC spokesman cited the agency's policy not to comment on pending investigations. But the SEC disclosed recently, in information given to a Senate committee, that since 2005 it has received more than 40 additional alerts about Pequot from stock exchanges, based on signs of insider trading and market manipulation. SEC chairwoman Mary Schapiro in a letter told the committee that all of these had been forwarded to the SEC enforcement division, although the agency hasn't disclosed the extent to which the alerts have been investigated.
Cor, I thought. This is what it must be like to be in one of those films. You nod off for 10 minutes and you wake up in 200 years' time. We had just pitched up at the Gare du Midi in Brussels and the transformation was incredible. It was 20 years ago that this paper despatched me to the Belgian capital to be its Common Market Correspondent, and in those days the Gare du Midi was a wonderfully dingy place with feral cats and trod-on chips and Turkish taxi drivers snoozing in their battered Mercs and trains departing slowly for First World War destinations like Poperinge.
Now the future had arrived. A vast space-age Eurostar terminal loured over the ancient quartier, and as we headed into the heart of Euroville I couldn't believe my eyes. Poor old Brussels took a terrible pasting in the Fifties, when ruthless British developers moved in and razed so many lovely maisons de maître, whacking up anonymous office blocks in their place. That was nothing to the destruction now taking place in the name of Europe. As you get to the sites of the burgeoning European institutions, it is as though gigantic alien motherships of glass and steel have crash-landed on the city, dwarfing the cobbled streets and crushing out the patisseries and the gloomy little bars I used to love....
Fintag says I really believe that the UK must leave Europe for its own good. Either that or it joins and we enjoy a strong Euro for let's face the USD and GBP are shot to pieces.
BARACK OBAMA ACCUSED OF MAKING 'DEPRESSION' MISTAKES
Barack Obama is committing the same mistakes made by policymakers during the Great Depression, according to a new study endorsed by Nobel laureate James Buchanan.
His policies even have the potential to consign the US to a similar fate as Argentina, which suffered a painful and humiliating slide from first to Third World status last century, the paper says.
There are "troubling similarities" between the US President's actions since taking office and those which in the 1930s sent the US and much of the world spiralling into the worst economic collapse in recorded history, says the new pamphlet, published by the Institute of Economic Affairs.
In particular, the authors, economists Charles Rowley of George Mason University and Nathanael Smith of the Locke Institute, claim that the White House's plans to pour hundreds of billions of dollars of cash into the economy will undermine it in the long run. They say that by employing deficit spending and increased state intervention President Obama will ultimately hamper the long-term growth potential of the US economy and may risk delaying full economic recovery by several years.
Fintag says That is the problem. Nobody reads history books and countries like the USA hire presidents who have no experience.
telegraph says " Adam Smith would not be optimistic in today's economic world "
8 comments
Timewarp said ...
It's the 19th? Have I missed something, like 12 days?
07 Sep 09 - 08:35 gmt
anonymous said ...
suspect you've missed the last few thousand issues of Fintag or you're making a lame joke even for commenters on this site.
07 Sep 09 - 09:00 gmt
anonymous said ...
September 19th is a Saturday!
07 Sep 09 - 09:58 gmt
anonymous said ...
Saturday makes sense
07 Sep 09 - 10:43 gmt
Shirley said ...
Does 'stupid jewellery' (US trip getting to the spelling?) include ties?
07 Sep 09 - 10:46 gmt
anonymous said ...
....flop...
07 Sep 09 - 16:45 gmt
Moron said ...
cant believe the loser who wrote Im not sure I will suvive.....what a load of bollocks!!!!........I WILL SURVIVE....I WILL BEND THE WORLD TO MY DESIRES....IF THE DOOR DOESN'T OPEN....I WILL BREAK IT!!!!
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