28JAN09:
Q1-09 DOW: 8900
Q2-09 DOW: 7250
Q3-09 DOW: 5810
Q4-09 DOW: 3960
CITI NATIONALIZED
OBAMA GETS SICK 27AUG09:
Mini Crash 21SEP09 Predicted correctly:
Bailout=Bonuses
Demise of Bear Stearns
Demise of Lehman Bros.
Demise of AIG
Subprime would cause problems
Date of 2007 crash
CRAs were to blame
G20 riots were a party
Northern Rock run
Northern Rock Nationalization
HBOS and RBS demise
UBS really was Useless
Moneyweek magazine has a profile on the top 3 tax havens for retirement. Following the news Cayman has run out of money and is seeking a bail out from the UK government, it didn't feature. And nor did Iceland or Latvia. Or Delaware.
In order of island fun, they were Panama, Malaysia and Cyprus. Now these are relatively fun places but only for a day or two. I have spent the last 18 months with my tax advisers, trying not to pay them of course, trying to work out what I do next tax year. You see, it is nice to see proper taxation levels at the sort of 20% range but life is about living and the only people I ever get to meet in places like Zug and Gibraltar are scrooge like odd balls.
It is a real dilemma. One has to factor in the other people, healthcare, insects, culture, and of course the quality of restaurants. Maybe I am doing this all wrong and should go bankrupt, live off state benefits for a couple of years, change my name and spreadbet instead?
Or do I just wait until the Tories get into power and hope the black hole of debt isn't as bad as first feared and enjoy the flat tax system they should be introducing?
The solution is not to earn any income. There are ways of manufacturing capital gains and that is what I shall do instead. Who needs money anyway? I lived as a student on nothing so why cannot I do the same now?
Few economists saw our current crisis coming, but this predictive failure was the least of the field's problems. More important was the profession's blindness to the very possibility of catastrophic failures in a market economy. During the golden years, financial economists came to believe that markets were inherently stable — indeed, that stocks and other assets were always priced just right. There was nothing in the prevailing models suggesting the possibility of the kind of collapse that happened last year. Meanwhile, macroeconomists were divided in their views. But the main division was between those who insisted that free-market economies never go astray and those who believed that economies may stray now and then but that any major deviations from the path of prosperity could and would be corrected by the all-powerful Fed. Neither side was prepared to cope with an economy that went off the rails despite the Fed's best efforts.
Fintag says Predicting the future is not easy. However, isn't it interesting that most banks have in house Economists and Hedge Funds dont? There is a good reason - they are a waste of money. All good traders are economists. The only reason to have one is to put out an opinionated view, send the markets down a one way street and do the opposite. Goldman are excellent at this.
As for the academics, most of them have no idea how the real world works and are about as good or bad as someone who tells the future from reading tea leaves.
Of course Economists are in the media, filling up the finance TV programmes trying to get their opinions out. Most traders keep quiet and make money.
The crash was known to be coming. I got the date right, and many others in the market knew it was going to happen just as we all know the W market we are in is going to crash again.
But you know that already, right?
OVER-THE-COUNTER PAINKILLERS CAN CAUSE ADDICTION IN THREE DAYS
The drugs, which contain codeine and include brand names such as Nurofen Plus and Solpadeine Plus, are sold over the counter and are routinely used to ease headaches, back problems and period pain.
But official figures show that tens of thousands of people have become dependent on the drugs, many accidentally, with women most at risk of developing an addiction.
Fintag says A nice parallel with banking bailouts.
DUTCH FUNDS WRITE TO MCCREEVY OVER ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS DIRECTIVE
A group of Dutch pension funds and institutional investors has written to the European Commission to express their concerns on the effects of the proposed alternative investment fund management directive.
In a letter addressed to the European internal market commissioner Charlie McCreevy, the funds said the current proposals "may reduce investment opportunities and risk diversification, lead to higher costs and lower returns, and may not reach its intended objective to reduce the systemic risk as experienced under the current financial crisis".
Fintag says Slowly but surely, the old dinosaurs are waking up to the EU Directive and realising that it stinks.
telegraph says " Capping bankers' pay may be revenge but it's no solution to a crisis"
financial news says " Bailed-out finance chiefs stay ahead in US pay stakes "
It's difficult to believe it has only been six years to the day that I started The Kirk Report. Frankly, I'm as enthusiastic and fired up now than I was after several people encouraged me to write this blog and share my insights.
Some interesting factoids since the very beginning:
* 13,265,882 visitors from 129 countries have visited * I've replied to 738,242 emails * There have been 9,357 posts * I've shared 3,130 charts
Fintag says Six Flags it is then. Am I as enthusiastic and fired up? Absolutely not at all. This blog is an albatross but being an addict like most finance people, I just love the attention.
PHILLY PAPERS FIGHT LENDERS OVER 'LOCAL' OWNERSHIP
The owners of Philadelphia's two major newspapers are trying to rally support for local management of the business -- taking on banks and other creditors that hope to win the company in a bankruptcy auction. And the creditors are trying to get the campaign stopped.
The ''Keep It Local!'' slogan is blasted in full-page s in The Philadelphia Inquirer and Philadelphia Daily News, on Philly.com's home page and on delivery trucks, buttons and even subscriber bills.
The ads suggest that outside owners -- ''banks and hedge funds located in New York, Beverly Hills and elsewhere'' -- would slash news coverage and staff and perhaps close the smaller Daily News. The creditors object to the publicity blitz and want a bankruptcy judge to shut it down. They call the campaign ''scare tactics'' designed to demonize any outside bidders.
Fintag says My favourite US pub is in Philly. Take a look...
SEC CONFUSED APPROACH PREVENTED DETECTION OF MADOFF FRAUD
An inexperienced staff, a lack of communication and inexplicable delays in commencing examinations prevented the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) from detecting the fraud committed by Bernard Madoff, according to a report by H David Kotz, the SEC's inspector general.
SEC examiners and enforcement staff were "confused about certain critical and fundamental aspects of Madoff's operations" and "caught Madoff in lies and misrepresentations", yet they failed to follow up inconsistencies and simply accepted his explanations as plausible, Kotz said in his report.
Fintag says Let us hope there aren't any others out there. Madoff 2's I mean. But what gets me is how the SEC has survived despite failing to regulate AIG, Freddie and Fannie, all the Investment Banks, ABS products, etc etc. Madoff was just another in a long list of failures.
independent says " Crackdown looming on banks amid huge level of complaints "
MADOFF AUTHOR SAYS METS OWNERS MAY NOT HAVE TO SELL
Maybe it's more a matter of if: The author of a new book on the Bernard Madoff scandal isn't so sure that the owners of the New York Mets will be forced to sell the team, after all, despite hundreds of millions in losses on the Ponzi scheme.
Interviewed on the New York sports talk radio station WFAN, Erin Arvedlund clarified her claim that “it's a matter of when” Fred Wilpon would sell the scuffling baseball team, and predicted it could come as early as next year.
Arvedlund, who says the Wilpons lost $700 million in the scam run by longtime family friend Madoff, denied that she said a sale was inevitable. New worries about the team's financial condition emerged this week when it was reported that the Mets would cancel their Florida-based instructional league program.
Fintag says I have spoken at length to Erin and she is a smart cookie. She outed Madoff years ago and her book is the best out there.
World leaders on Thursday set out the first steps toward withdrawing emergency support for the global economy even though they warned that the crisis was not over. The US, UK, France and Germany called for work to start “on exit strategies to be implemented in a co-ordinated manner as soon as the crisis is over”.
Tim Geithner, US Treasury secretary, said finance ministers should start to spell out how the “very successful policy response” to the economic crisis could be reversed. Speaking at the US Treasury before flying to London for a meeting of finance ministers of the G20 group of nations, Mr Geithner said these exit strategies were “very important to [the] confidence” of the financial markets.
Fintag says I have one request: please just stop now. Please. It isn't helping.
We know one hedge fund client that's not likely going to be seeking business from Credit Suisse anytime soon. David Einhorn's Greenlight Capital.
That's because Erin Callan, who was demoted from her job as chief financial officer of Lehman Brothers last month, has found a new gig in the New York office of the Swiss bank as head of its global hedge fund business.
Callan and Einhorn, you might recall, didn't exactly see eye-to-eye on Lehman's financial stability. Einhorn was publicly short Lehman stock and tearing apart its 10-Q while Callan struggled to paint a pretty picture for anxious shareholders.
Fintag says Ah, the delightful and smart Erin Callan ...
THE bitter row over the future of the City intensified yesterday after Prime Minister Gordon?Brown signed up to a joint Franco-German letter which signalled a fresh, much harsher line against bonuses.
The letter to the G20 chairman, coming ahead of today's meetings, said they should “explore ways to limit total variable remuneration in a bank either to a certain proportion of total compensation or the bank's revenues and/or profits.”
Despite the dramatic u-turn, the Treasury said it was still opposed to some of the more radical anti-bonus plans. “You'll notice there's no reference to the word 'cap'”, a Treasury source told City A.M. “It's very carefully worded. We want to see an end to inappropriate remuneration.”
Fintag says It won't work so why bother? Better to split the banks up and do something properly, not irritate people.
The investment banking chief of HSBC Holdings said he sees a “significant opportunity” to increase revenue from hedge funds after the collapse of Lehman Brothers last year, Bloomberg News reported.
At a Nomura Holdings conference on Thursday, the chief, Stuart Gulliver, said, “We've seen a number of hedge funds moving their accounts to HSBC because their main concern is getting their money back. We can give people leverage in a segregated account, so they don't have the operational risk that came out when Lehman Brothers failed.”
Fintag says HSBC. Prime Brokerage. An oxymoron surely?
20 comments
Top Cat said ...
That silver shelter is awesome, I want one!
04 Sep 09 - 07:11 gmt
Munch the Fantastic said ...
FIRST!!!
BITCHES!!!
04 Sep 09 - 07:18 gmt
anonymous said ...
Wrong!
04 Sep 09 - 07:42 gmt
m mcconaughey said ...
@topcat. its called an airstream. The seminal US "trailer". handbuilt in aluminium. Sean Penn lives in one. and I use one for surfing. does anyone with half a brain come on this blog?
04 Sep 09 - 07:45 gmt
Top Cat said ...
I'm terribly sorry for not having detailed knowledge of this subject. It's obviously an important one. Fin refers to it as a "shack shelter" on his Flickr page.
04 Sep 09 - 07:53 gmt
anonymous said ...
How about Malta Fintag? In the EU but 15% tax to foreigners. 3 hour flight from London where you can go back to 90 days a year officially, and ferry over to Italy for the restaurants.
04 Sep 09 - 08:51 gmt
anonymous said ...
Labuan rocks. Errm - except there is nothing to do there
04 Sep 09 - 08:59 gmt
Panta said ...
@ "Fin HSBC. Prime Brokerage. An oxymoron surely?"....Ahaha U great Fin
04 Sep 09 - 09:30 gmt
catsick said ...
how about New Zealand , can try for four years tax free ( all offshore income ) or failing that Japan , first 5 years tax free , we are putting an airstream at the bottom of the goryu run in Hakuba this winter so you can kip there if you like ....
04 Sep 09 - 09:47 gmt
Miss Toastpoints said ...
Of course the SEC didn't detect Madoff or anything else fraudulent... They are absolutely useless. When they used to "audit" our fund, they honestly didn't even understand how a mark to market works. The fund manager would say "Oh, the reason why there is such a discrepancy between our Euro price and your Euro price is that we use a London close rather than a NY close." There would be a 15% difference (in his favor, of course), which is not even possible. Didn't matter, they never noticed...
04 Sep 09 - 10:59 gmt
hate those guys said ...
at least moron finally got his (well deserved) place in a (hopefully) descent mental home - now it's just munch who's left! I guess he must be a really board intern at some icelandic bank, with his daily post also being his greatest daily achievement. uarggg
04 Sep 09 - 12:08 gmt
Deltahedge said ...
Philadelphia is a sh*thole
04 Sep 09 - 15:51 gmt
Moron said ...
Dear hate those guys,
I would really like a opportunity to meet your sister - having heard some truly nasty things about her I would totally appreciate this opportunity to satiate her rather insatiable appetite for........... life:))))
Moron
04 Sep 09 - 16:41 gmt
hate those guys said ...
back from the asylum - there must have been a mistake that they let you out already - but at least I see that they cured you're swearing a little bit ;)
and as my sister by chance has a black belt in showing morons how to shut up for ever I'd be very happy to establish contact between you two!!
04 Sep 09 - 16:51 gmt
anonymous said ...
@hate those guys - almost every reader of this blog would pay your sister to shut this bozo up. But, sadly, you have just done the one thing that keeps him going....respond to him. Best to let him rant alone and hope he gets bored or dies
04 Sep 09 - 17:03 gmt
Etaoin said ...
Finbar, who needs tax shelters? Why not just become a hedge fund heretic and forget everything you know about hedgie style alpha-chasing with its frustrations and, well, gosh, what is the British equivalent to an American tax-efficient and low cost approach to investing, with lots of munis and relatively conservative allocations to indexed global equities, with long holding periods? Have you guys got something like that?
04 Sep 09 - 17:10 gmt
Moron said ...
Dear hate those guys,
I am grateful for this opportunity to tend to your sister......I shall be particularly meticulous as to what uses I put her black belt to:)))
Moron
04 Sep 09 - 17:37 gmt
Richardlogo said ...
Fintag said ...
Who needs money anyway? I lived as a student on nothing so why cannot I do the same now
sites.google.com/site/livingwithoutmoney/
a delightfully nutty site
04 Sep 09 - 18:40 gmt
anonymous said ...
nice try Etaoin
04 Sep 09 - 20:39 gmt
william said ...
Arvedlund, who says the Wilpons lost $700 million in the scam run by longtime family friend Madoff,
Surely what they actually lost is the sum first given to Madoff less dividends and adjusted for inflation.I would guess that this would be considerably less than the headline amounts. What they thought that they had tucked away the financial genius is another (fairy) story
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