28JAN09:
Q1-09 DOW: 8900
Q2-09 DOW: 7250
Q3-09 DOW: 5810
Q4-09 DOW: 3960
CITI NATIONALIZED
OBAMA GETS SICK 27AUG09:
Mini Crash 21SEP09 Predicted correctly:
Bailout=Bonuses
Demise of Bear Stearns
Demise of Lehman Bros.
Demise of AIG
Subprime would cause problems
Date of 2007 crash
CRAs were to blame
G20 riots were a party
Northern Rock run
Northern Rock Nationalization
HBOS and RBS demise
UBS really was Useless
This time 2 years ago, the conference sector was booming. The likes of Marcus Evans and Terrapin enjoyed the fruits of over charging the "people who like people" to visit out of town hotels with stained carpets and vile tasting mints listening to supposed experts talking about important matters of the day when in fact they were selling their own firms.
I have been to a few, but very few in the last year. Today I am off to a secret seminar, a bit like the #climatecamp, where some senior hedgies are going to talk about how we continue trading in the UK but actually reside in Switzerland to avoid the high tax and regulation. There will be no journalists or interns on a jolly. [Editor: So you are going to the pub will a few of your mates then?]
Whilst all our shorts have been closed out and we sit on financials and any company that services the financial industry, the news today covers more Goldman Sachs bashing, Ex Lehman employees putting in hundreds of millions of dollars in back pay claims, Japan full of ex investment bankers driving taxis and more analysis on the parallels with the Great Depression W.
When retail expert and all-around economy watcher Howard Davidowitz appeared on Tech Ticker in February declaring the worst was yet to come for the U.S. economy and that Americans' standard of living has changed permanently, our comment boards lit up.
But surely with the latest rally off the March lows, bearish Davidowitz is more bullish, right? Not a chance. Look at your financial history books.
Two of the biggest rallies of more than 40 percent occurred during the Great Depression, says Davidowitz of Davidowitz & Associates,a retail consulting and investment banking firm. "People were sucked in and ultimately were destroyed," he says. It's a warning to today's investors, who are hoping to extend the rally.
Don't get Davidowitz started on the economy or fundamentals. "Barack Obama's numbers have all gone mad," Davidowitz says. The Obama administration recently announced the U.S. budget deficit will be $9 trillion during the next decade; $2 trillion higher than the original forecast.
Fintag says When analysts start getting confused then you know we are in trouble. I have to say, surfing this wave is fun but the crash is in sight and probably 16th September it will get tricky before some real volatility in October and November.
barrons says " How the Current Recession Stacks Up "
financial times says " UK business spending weakest in 43 years "
Apple has approved the Spotify iPhone application, allowing users to stream music to their handsets.
The company submitted the application to Apple's iTunes App Store for its approval in July.
The application will be free, but will require the user to have a premium Spotify subscription, which costs £10.
Fintag says As you know I was one of the first advocates of Spotify and again proven right that this iTunes killer is on the right tracks. My hedgie for musics playlist is very comprehensive. Please take a look and add any more hedge fund inspired tracks.
Crude oil prices rebounded after slipping below $70 a barrel on Thursday, while US natural gas touched a multi-year low, dropping at one point by more than 7 per cent, as storage facilities bulged.
Oil reversed two days of losses, as buoyant US equities were seen as a barometer of future energy demand.
The commerce department reported the US economy shrank less than expected in the second quarter, aiding sentiment.
Fintag says So there is a correlation between stock market optimism and the oil price. Bizarre.
The Wall Street Journal reports that Joseph Gregory, Lehman Brother's former president, has put in a $233m claim as a creditor against the bankrupt company's estate for performance-related and restricted stock options. Some people have no shame.
The newspaper also reports that Dan Sontag, the former head of Merrill Lynch's brokerage unit, only learnt about the appointment of Sallie Krawcheck (who was coming in over his head) just a few minutes before Bank of America publicly announced it.
Hedge fund administrator GlobeOp Financial Services has settled claims it misvalued the assets of a collapsed London hedge fund.
GlobeOp agreed to pay Regents Park Capital Management, which imploded in 2006, US$43.5 million to put to rest Regents Park's claims about GlobeOp's calculation of the funds' value and “the impact on that of mispriced position values provided by a principal of the hedge fund's investment manager,” the administrator said in a statement. By making a deal, GlobeOp avoids going to arbitration with Regents Park, which was seeking US$109 million in damages.
Fintag says Wow that was a big claim for Global Cockup's cockup.
Japan's unemployment rate rose to a record 5.7% in July in figures released just days before a general election.
Companies are continuing to lay off workers even though the economy has returned to growth after the most bruising recession for decades.
The state of Japan's economy is the key issue in the election campaign.
Opinion polls show the Liberal Democratic Party, which has governed for 53 of the last 54 years, faces defeat in the election.
Fintag says Amazing that despite Japan's volatile economic record they have had the same governement in power for over 50 years. Time for a change meez thinks. If the children are rebelling and getting fat then the country needs to change.
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission will not enforce any action against hedge fund, Amaranth Advisors, Bloomberg reports. The regulator has completed a three-year investigation to determine if Amaranth misled investors in any way, including trading outside its mandate or failing to disclose relevant information to them.
Fintag says I just don't get it. Amaranth put all its eggs in one basket and collapsed. Billions were lost and the SEC drops the case. 3 years of legal fees and all for nothing.
Over the past few years I've looked into the much-too-cozy relationship between Goldman and Washington.
I've suspected that this Wall Street firm has been acting, in essence, as an arm of the government. And I am also pretty sure that if Goldman and Washington have something secret going on, the investment firm isn't doing it for altruistic reasons. There's money to be made.
In 2007 I reported in this column that Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson let the cat out of the bag when he confessed on a cable TV show that it was "my job to talk regularly to market participants . . ."
Paulson had been the chairman of Goldman right before taking the job as head of Treasury.
Fintag says This time last year it was AIG employees. Now it is Goldman Sachs employees who are the new axis of evil.
GlobeOp gets sued again? $43.5m uses up all their cash.
28 Aug 09 - 09:36 gmt
anonymous said ...
Short GlobeOp today then!
28 Aug 09 - 10:32 gmt
author of a blog said ...
Hey Fintag I got 2 points to make
1. Price of Oil has been leading stk mkts optimism for a while and is in turn driving appetite for risk currecncies (NZD/GBP at multi yr highs as an example). Therefore IMHO world mkts are being indirectly driven by percieved hurricanes in the Atlantic ( Better go long NHC) and militants in the Niger delta and any flare up in the ME ( Long Militants / Terrorists)
28 Aug 09 - 11:32 gmt
author of a blog said ...
2. Japanese election due to take place and opinion polls and commentators believe that the LDP's iron grip of Japan will loosed as the DPJ come into power. The DPJ are more respectful of BoJ independence but are looking to have their men elected onto the governing board. I personally don't think the japanese election results would be -ve for the Yen
28 Aug 09 - 11:33 gmt
author of a blog said ...
Sorry last point....I predict a event will take place b/ween sept 9-13 that will have a major impact on global mkts
And yes I iknow I leave myself open to criticism from the multiple anons on here, but couldn't care less.
28 Aug 09 - 11:35 gmt
GalwayBoy said ...
Nice spamming aoab
Has Paulson called the turn on financials then?
28 Aug 09 - 11:47 gmt
anonymous said ...
Ha, chill out 'author of a blog' seems nobody gives a hoot what you think. Nice work pal.
28 Aug 09 - 13:26 gmt
damiendamien said ...
An 'event'? Intriguing.
re Paulson, sadly he could be right. Citi, however abominable, won't be allowed to fail so can't see him losing too much, everything to play for if/when someone anwsers the cluephone and breaks it up. Probably worth a punt as really things can't get any worse (or maybe I'm not imaginative enough)
28 Aug 09 - 14:07 gmt
Cyclops said ...
Aoab, have you taken your pills today as prescribed by the doctor?
(I have a name. I dont hide behind anon)
28 Aug 09 - 14:13 gmt
ProblemChild said ...
How come the 'editor' has as many typo's as Finbar on a good day?
28 Aug 09 - 14:26 gmt
toilet said ...
Does anyone know if theres the equivalent of something like DUG where I can put a leveraged inverse play on aoab's ideas?Thanks in advance.
28 Aug 09 - 15:54 gmt
GalwayBoy said ...
Damien, I think aoab is referring to the recent collapse in lobster prices :)
Paulson is sniffing around BofA too
28 Aug 09 - 16:20 gmt
Tradebot said ...
aoab... me thinks crude is driven up by the rally in risk assets. nothin' to do with demand/supply.
28 Aug 09 - 16:26 gmt
author of a blog said ...
@tradebot agreed re: crude supply/demand fundamentals have been thrown out of the window. It has become a good indicator for risk appetite, and is closely correlated with USDCAD. I'm seeing 74.8 and 69.3 as the key resistance levels on WTI...breaks of these and it's time to cash in
28 Aug 09 - 16:54 gmt
Richardlogo said ...
Fintag says ... surfing this wave is fun but the crash is in sight and probably 16th September it will get tricky before some real volatility in October and November.
author of a blog said ... ....I predict a event will take place b/ween sept 9-13 that will have a major impact on global mkts
I love fortune telling says Thursday 17th Sept is a stinker
28 Aug 09 - 23:07 gmt
Moron said ...
ha...i called the crash before everyone...i even called it before the rally started...so there.....I'm the best....PEASANTS!!!!:)))
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