28JAN09:
Q1-09 DOW: 8900
Q2-09 DOW: 7250
Q3-09 DOW: 5810
Q4-09 DOW: 3960
CITI NATIONALIZED
OBAMA GETS SICK 27AUG09:
Mini Crash 21SEP09 Predicted correctly:
Bailout=Bonuses
Demise of Bear Stearns
Demise of Lehman Bros.
Demise of AIG
Subprime would cause problems
Date of 2007 crash
CRAs were to blame
G20 riots were a party
Northern Rock run
Northern Rock Nationalization
HBOS and RBS demise
UBS really was Useless
After yesterday's oof news, the current crop of press release driven media content is enough to send me back to the Cipriani for a second lunch. Or is that breakfast? Is it the Jet lag or am I losing the plot and should just throw in the towel and go fishing?
There was fun though. Yesterday. For those who work in Mayfair, and you were walking about in the afternoon avoiding all those black satin clad girls handing out cards to the Mayfair Club, I was in various poses and disguises having my photo taken. Green Park. The Square. The Ritz.
My photographer, Jim, had set up a lighting rig and hid behind a white umbrella whilst I posed wearing various masks. I had taxi drivers jumping out of cabs snapping the spectacle, hoards of Japanese tourists clambering to find out if I truly was Jude Law (with hair) and of course the police who moved us on at every opportunity had a good laugh.
The results will be out later this year.
Now it is time to reveal my computer model outputs. It is grim for you longsters. The VIX is going to spike later this year and early next year the markets will tank. I will reveal the precise date later this year.
Don't forget, FiNTAG was the only website that predicted the crash within 3 days, 1 year before it happened. 17 October 2007. I have a track record [Editor: And what about all those predictions that never came true?]
New Home I have been looking at moving to Switzerland and there is no space (homes to rent, schools, office space). Geneva is full. Zurich is the same. What is going on here guys and girls?
FRANCE and Germany made a surprise return to growth in the second quarter of 2009, official data showed yesterday, making them the first of the major economies to exit the worst post-war global recession.
Figures from Eurostat showed that Western Europe's two largest economies both grew by 0.3 per cent in the three months to June on the previous quarter, while the Eurozone as a whole shrank by 0.1 per cent.
Fintag says A few basis points and the party is back. Surely you are kidding? These stats are unverified and use different algorithms. But hey, if it makes us smile then this is good news. So where did the UK and US go wrong?
ICELAND TO CUT PUBLIC SPENDING BY 30% OVER NEXT 3 YEARS; SLAMS UK AND NETHERLANDS
Iceland's prime minister Jóhanna Sigurðardóttir, says in an article published in the Financial Times today that her government plans a 30 per cent cut in public spending over the next 3 years, with extensive contractions in infrastructure spending and wages. She terms it "a heavy burden for our population of 300,000." In the article, she also slams the UK and the Netherlands for demanding compensation for payments on deposits in respect of a failed Icelandic online bank.
Fintag says Iceland. The new Argentina. [Editor: uh?]
About 3.5 million homeowners are unable to move due to a lack of equity in their home or because they would struggle to get a mortgage, according to the mortgage broker John Charcol.
An estimated 2 million households are currently thought to have less than a 10 per cent equity stake in their property or be in negative equity. A further 500,000 homeowners have only a 10 to 15 per cent equity stake in their property and about 1 million have a sub-prime or self-certification mortgage which they would be unable to renew if they moved.
Fintag says Now of course if they hadn't been so greedy and rented, this wouldn't be a problem.
Please, please, please ...the next UK government put CGT on property sales and this will never happen again.
First, her husband gets caught running the largest financial fraud in history. Then, she's forced to give up everything, including her homes, except for $2.5 million in pocket change, which the receiver in the Bernard Madoff case is going after, anyway. Now, she's dealing with the revelation that her husband of 50 years cheated on her.
So says one of Madoff's most virulent victims, Sheryl Weinstein, in her new book. Madoff's Other Secret: Love, Money, Bernie, and Me will be published on Aug. 25. The ghost-written tome, which is “a fast read,” said a spokesman for the publisher, St. Martin's Press, will detail the affair, including photographs and intimate descriptions of the Ponzi schemer extraordinaire, who was sentenced to 150 years in prison for his crimes earlier this year.
Fintag says Forget Wall Street 2. I want to see Madoff The Movie ASAP.
MINISTERS CONSIDER LEGISLATION TO REIN IN BANK BONUSES
Senior cabinet ministers are so disappointed with the Financial Services Authority's new pay rules, released this week, they are considering whether legislation may be needed to crack down on bankers' bonuses.
A number of ministers, including Lord Mandelson, the business secretary, are understood to be unhappy with the City regulator's remuneration code, which toned down some earlier suggested measures.
Fintag says Firstly, why doesn't ft.com work in Firefox anymore - I get a nice blank pink page.
The FSA is going to be abolished when the Tories get into power. The Bank of England know what they are doing and used to regulate very well so why not again ...errr not true ...remember BCCI ...but that was a long time ago and as I have said before and I will again for the new readers I was with Eddie George in the early 90s as a young Jude Law look-a-like and he bailed out a number of banks behind the scenes. The media never knew and it worked.
Transparency isn't what it is all cracked up to be - that is why France and Germany are out of recession.
From copper to oil, wheat and corn, commodities are booming. With a rally expected to continue over the next few months, this gold rush is leaving even a reviving stockmarket in dust.
White sugar rose today to a record in London as economies recover from recession and global production runs short. Cotton and copper futures neared one-year records, pushed by a slumping dollar, which makes investment in these dollar-denominated commodities more attractive to foreign investors.
Fintag says Speculation. Don't you love it. Without foundation, just a huge wall of cash looking for alpha, beta or another burned backside.
bloomberg says " Bank Shares May Be Poised to Drop After 74% Surge in Six Months "
Here's a rather amusing spoof that recently appeared in The Borowitz Report. 'In what some on Wall Street are calling the biggest blockbuster deal in the history of the financial sector, Goldman Sachs confirmed today that it was in talks to acquire the U.S. Department of the Treasury. According to a Goldman spokesperson, the merger between Goldman and the Treasury Department is 'a good fit', because 'they're in the business of printing money and so are we'.
The spokesman said that the merger would create efficiencies for both entities: 'We already have so many employees and so much money flowing back and forth, this would just streamline things'.
Fintag says Ha, this news is too late. The Treasury is run by Goldman Sachs and has been for years.
A landmark settlement that will spare UBS a lengthy and damaging U.S. tax trial is set to be signed next week and will involve the disclosure of the biggest holders of secret Swiss accounts.
"The signing will most likely take place next week," a source familiar with the situation told Reuters on Friday.
The source did not want to disclose any details from the settlement, but the New York Times said on Friday Swiss accounts in the name of U.S. residents over a certain dollar amount would be disclosed to U.S. tax authorities.
Big banks, facing government pressure to clean up their balance sheets, are beginning to quietly unload billions of dollars in toxic residential mortgages.
A handful of distressed mortgage players including hedge funds and private equity firms have been eagerly bidding on the assets, which they believe will generate healthy profits over time once the mortgages are modified, according to sources briefed on the deals.
In one of the biggest deals so far, Wells Fargo recently sold a $600 million pool of mostly nonperforming mortgages to Arch Bay Capital, a specialty mortgage service company majority-owned by the hedge fund York Capital Management, according to people briefed on the deal. It's unclear exactly how much Arch Bay paid for the mortgages, but other bidders who looked at the assets estimated the pool was sold for between 35 cents and 40 cents on the dollar.
Fintag says And I have seen plenty about too. My new credit opportunity fund is seeing a lot of dealflow and it is so cheap for obvious reasons.
Oh, and here is my lunch:
75 comments
Munch the Greatest said ...
First!
Bitches!
14 Aug 09 - 08:42 gmt
anonymous said ...
Re: New Home - What do you mean by full? Those of us blessed with a British passport can come to Geneva with no major problems..
14 Aug 09 - 09:01 gmt
damiendamien said ...
Just set up a mailing address in Geneva, fly to Dublin, train to Belfast, ferry to Scotland and train back down. Taxman is none the wiser.
14 Aug 09 - 09:13 gmt
LoveMeHateMe said ...
@ anon 09:01: Think about supply/demand buddy... I am shorting your career now! ... just kidding
14 Aug 09 - 09:20 gmt
Tradebot said ...
Hey Finbar, you are missing on the funniest story doing the rounds : RBS paying £7m guarantee [first year only!] to "rainmaker" and "star bond trader" called Antonio Polverino. Who? Ha ha ha!
14 Aug 09 - 09:28 gmt
Tradebot said ...
Ha ha ha! And this after all that hot air from FSA of "banning excessive bonuses". Plus RBS is state owned bank as well! Well, that's what you get when you put Lord Myners in charge!
14 Aug 09 - 09:32 gmt
anonymous said ...
Damn it! I think I walked straight past Fin outside The Stafford Hotel whilst he was posing, Carnevale mask and all!!!
14 Aug 09 - 09:47 gmt
Finbar said ...
@anon 9:32 - yes that was I ...
14 Aug 09 - 10:10 gmt
author of a blog said ...
Hey tradebot all that talk from regulators about bonuses is a load of bull. Over inflated traders/bankers will still collect their pieces of gold. Interesting to read in FT about Citi's start energy trader being paid ~100 mio
14 Aug 09 - 10:31 gmt
Global EMU Inc said ...
I still think you are Ian Wylie. Just tell us who you are and put us out of our misery. What were the photos for?
14 Aug 09 - 10:32 gmt
anonymous said ...
@author of a blog, that's very old news.
14 Aug 09 - 10:34 gmt
author of a blog said ...
Hey what are people's views on Crude Oil??
14 Aug 09 - 10:36 gmt
Moron said ...
haaa chooo...crude oil always needed some refinement...imho:))))
14 Aug 09 - 10:41 gmt
MsR said ...
@aoab I'm afraid I have to concur with some that you are trying to sell your blog and be popular and it annoys people and makes me cringe. I can't explain why and I know Moron posts every 30 seconds but he is a masochist and likes being abused. Although the language was pretty awful yesterday from some anons, I think it's worth reading btw the lines. If you are/were a trader you can't be surprised by the reactions.
14 Aug 09 - 10:41 gmt
anonymous said ...
Well said Ms R and very nice given aoab's Tourettes.
14 Aug 09 - 10:52 gmt
Moron said ...
someone needs to defend aoab....I will.....I think he is brave to promote his blog....and I think his blog has some very good ideas......and I am not a masochist....I am a tool with character:)))))))))))
14 Aug 09 - 10:55 gmt
author of a blog said ...
Hey MsR for what would be considered a finance blog I don't see much finance/markets related chat. Just a bunch of bitter people venting their spleens. I just want to initiate market chat is that such a bad thing? Not in anyway trying to hijack what is a v well written blog.
14 Aug 09 - 11:04 gmt
anonymous said ...
aoab(cock) wylie isn't with gandhara anymore...maybe if you had a bloomberg you would know this
14 Aug 09 - 11:05 gmt
anonymous said ...
stark contrast to your poorly written blog
14 Aug 09 - 11:07 gmt
anonymous said ...
aoab - your toe-curling attempts at advertising your blog are embarrassing. Ms R hit the nail very squarely on the head. My guess is you probably are a retrenched GS trader as you mentioned, but a very very young guy with no experience or wisdom
14 Aug 09 - 11:14 gmt
author of a blog said ...
hey come on. I am just trying to make a living here. My blog is already better than Fintag.com. I am thinking of changing to paid subscription (about $100/month). Moron - stop licking my ass
14 Aug 09 - 11:18 gmt
anonymous said ...
in the hedge world we already hold sell-side in contempt and ignore all of their recommendations; why the hell would we be interested in the uninformed views of a out of touch sacked sell-sider?
14 Aug 09 - 11:21 gmt
Moron said ...
i am not licking ur ass....and i have no real interest in ur piece of sh*t blog......u r just an irrelevant waste of space....and I am using u as an excuse to pick another fight.....cop on sugarpuss:)))
14 Aug 09 - 11:23 gmt
author of a blog said ...
anon 11.07 To those accusing me of advertising my blog, all I say is you guys seem to bring it up more often than I do. If you don't like my blog I don't give a flying fu*K
anon 11.14 What parameters does one set to judge wisdom. Think it's a v subjective topic and by your comment you reveal more about your lack of judgement/wisdom/following crowds than I do about myself. How can you make a snap judgement about someone through a few internet comments?
14 Aug 09 - 11:26 gmt
author of a blog said ...
anon 11.05 you degenerate sh*thead I didn't write the comment about Ian Wylie. Think you need to clear the sh*t out of your eyes and read things clearly
14 Aug 09 - 11:28 gmt
anonymous said ...
For the very reason that your comments here and on your blog lack depth. You also rise to the bait of trolls on this blog, you should ignore them entirely. You come across as quite immature, no shame in that, but you do.
14 Aug 09 - 11:28 gmt
author of a blog said ...
whoever posted as my username on here I think you're a really damaged insecure person...learn to fight your own battles openly instead of using sh*tty tactics. I never claim to have written a better blog than Fintag
Moron that wasn't me writing that guff at 11.18
14 Aug 09 - 11:30 gmt
Moron said ...
aoab, you've blown it mate. I'm gonna have you if we ever meet. Chew you up and spit you out :)))))
14 Aug 09 - 11:33 gmt
author of a blog said ...
Look whatever I was just trying to get peoples opinions on crude oil today and get a genuine discussion about markets going, wasn't trying to advertise my blog or make myself look more important than I am. If you guys want to b*tch all day long I'm more than happy to oblige, but it would be far more interesting if we had a discussion about the FICC markets.
14 Aug 09 - 11:38 gmt
anonymous said ...
More interesting to bitch isn't it?
14 Aug 09 - 11:40 gmt
Moron said ...
on second thougts i think aoab rocks!!!!
14 Aug 09 - 11:48 gmt
damiendamien said ...
I think the price of crude oil will definitely go up but could also go down depending on the demand from buyers and the amount available for sale. I'm seeing the similar dynamic across all financial instruments.
14 Aug 09 - 11:48 gmt
MsR said ...
@aoab: Maybe it isn't that sort of blog. Just like The Epicurean Dealmaker doesn't discuss deals. Perhaps you should go to a blog/chatroom where other day traders live? It seems logical to me if you want to have those sort of chats.
14 Aug 09 - 11:52 gmt
Moron said ...
no i think aoab really rocks......cannot understand why everyone is on his case all of a sudden.....
14 Aug 09 - 11:55 gmt
anonymous said ...
anyway back to markets...i have a question for aoab...on your blog ypou talk about RBNZ -- "RBNZ don't have the money to intervene"; what do you mean by this statement...?
14 Aug 09 - 11:58 gmt
anonymous said ...
Could Moron and aoab be the same person? Either that, or in some sort of homoerotic relationship
14 Aug 09 - 12:06 gmt
anonymous said ...
@Finbar, have you worked out how to stop spammers disrupting our pleasure yet? Also, what happened to Sageguage? I loved that idea but it seemed to fizzle out.
14 Aug 09 - 12:07 gmt
Moron said ...
i can assure u Moron and aoab r not the same person.....but i do like that word erotic.....would love to hear it from Maria:))))
14 Aug 09 - 12:10 gmt
author of a blog said ...
anon 11.58 Any intervention by the RBNZ to sell NZD will be met by a wall of money from HF's and banks prop desks to keep the carry trade alive. Frankly speaking NZ don't have the reserves to fight the speculators and would only be wasting taxpayers money.
14 Aug 09 - 12:28 gmt
author of a blog said ...
anon 11.58 Ever since the g20 meeting and the market manipulation being carried out by the US through the GS robots, it would be foolish for RBNZ to use their precious reserves in fighting a losing battle, better to let market foces decide the value of NZDUSD, which they have with the considerable appreciation in this pair.
14 Aug 09 - 12:29 gmt
Finbar said ...
@anon 12:06 - SageGauge is relaunching later this year
14 Aug 09 - 12:29 gmt
anonymous said ...
too long, didnt read
14 Aug 09 - 12:30 gmt
anonymous said ...
aoab..that doesn't make sense -- a central bank doesn't deplete reserves by resisting appreciation of their local currency, they add them. you have got it wrong.
14 Aug 09 - 12:54 gmt
anonymous said ...
how embarrassing aoab...and your market illiteracy is there on your own blog (and this one) fo everyone to see
14 Aug 09 - 13:03 gmt
anonymous said ...
"precious reserves" haha what a tool!
14 Aug 09 - 13:11 gmt
anonymous said ...
what a moron, a central bank can theoretically sell limitless amounts of its own currency ...this is how China can create $2tn of FX reserves. can you really have worked for GS FX?
14 Aug 09 - 13:21 gmt
author of a blog said ...
anon 12.54 & 13.03 are you insane is that your problem?!? Every central bank intervention cost money and depletes reserves if not carried out properly...To prevent apreciation of NZD they have to sell kiwi and buy USD. But as I clearly stated speculators, HF's and prop desks fully know the stk mkt rally is on a wild tear therefore RBNZ will be met with a wall of NZD buying and USD selling
14 Aug 09 - 13:25 gmt
author of a blog said ...
So any selling by RBNZ will result in losses on their intervention as they will have to keep on selling but at higher handles
14 Aug 09 - 13:26 gmt
author of a blog said ...
Back in 2004 when the RBNZ organised themselves properly with resources to be able to intervene, a moral hazard was detected in that exporters could erroneously conclude that the RBNZ would take the top off any NZD over-valuation, therefore exporters did not need to hedge currency risk long-term as the RBNZ underwrote that risk. Think you need to go back to trading 101 numpty...and no I never claimed to worked within GS FX get your facts right sh*tface
14 Aug 09 - 13:27 gmt
author of a blog said ...
anon 13.21 you need to get a sense of proportion your trying to compare the chinese economy to NZ. Do you realise how foolish that comparison sounds?? China's surge in reserves has nothing to do with the CB selling yuans, but with renewed capital inflows from private investors pouring money into chinese shares and property investments...get your facts right before you make generalised statements
14 Aug 09 - 13:39 gmt
anonymous said ...
don;t want to intrude into a private spat here but aoab you did write at 12.28 "Frankly speaking NZ don't have the reserves to fight the speculators" which does seem inaccurate/misleading.
14 Aug 09 - 13:41 gmt
anonymous said ...
consider this statement -- "Every central bank intervention cost money and depletes reserves if not carried out properly"...the first part (costs money) is correct, the second part (depletes reserves) is quite clearly incorrect.
14 Aug 09 - 13:47 gmt
Moron said ...
i believe its much more exciting to discuss whether or not women r all whores:)))
14 Aug 09 - 14:04 gmt
anonymous said ...
i would stop digging aoab, you are way out of your depth. number one it's pretty clear that a constraint on a central bank intervening to cap it's local currency can never be a deficiency of reserves, obviously if they are buying fx and selling their local currency they can't be depleting fx reserves no matter how unprofitable (measured in local currency terms) this intervention proves to be.
14 Aug 09 - 14:06 gmt
anonymous said ...
your comments on china are again simply incorrect -- do you imagine these dlrs magically appear in PBoC coffers just because China has a BoP surplus! The PBoC actively mops up dlrs (thereby injecting yuan, ex sterlisation) as a means of fixing its exchange rate.
14 Aug 09 - 14:07 gmt
author of a blog said ...
anon 13.41 my statement would be innacurate if someone could inform us of the total reserves held by RBNZ. As it is unlikely that anyone posseses intimate details of their total reserves my statement cannot be falsified. I don't claim to have any intimate knowledge either but IMHO their reserves cannot amount to the wall of money on the other side of that trade
14 Aug 09 - 14:31 gmt
anonymous said ...
poor old aoab, he really got taken to school there; your last response is a bit pathetic!
14 Aug 09 - 14:41 gmt
anonymous said ...
I asked our currency trader to read what you had written aoab, and he looked very confused. Said you had no idea what you were talking about
14 Aug 09 - 14:45 gmt
author of a blog said ...
anon 14.07 your point "a central bank can theoretically sell limitless amounts of its own currency ...this is how China can create $2tn of FX reserves" - Is incorrect...the increase in China's reserves has come about from foreign investment, it doesn't have anything to do with the fact they have a BOP surplus as you quite cleverly state. Not denying that doesn't play a small part but you cannot attribute your earlier statement to contradict my statement re: NZ
14 Aug 09 - 15:36 gmt
anonymous said ...
wall of money - cnut
14 Aug 09 - 15:40 gmt
author of a blog said ...
anon 14.45 you could ask the queen of the fairies for all I care...If you and your ccy trader are confused not my problem. I'm here to discuss market fundamentals to improve my bottom line.If you don't like it no need to participate
14 Aug 09 - 15:42 gmt
anonymous said ...
I just want to participate with someone who actually knows what they are talking about....not someone who got retrenched from GS after probably one week as the tea boy on the FX desk
14 Aug 09 - 15:48 gmt
toilet said ...
err....enough of this tomfoolery aoab...a cb can print as many of their own currency for the purposes of selling it as they want...of course if thoses sales are left unsterilized then there is the potential inflationary consequences to worry about but please stop confusing this with reserve depletion from supporting a weak currency.....anons continue with character assasination please as im bored
14 Aug 09 - 15:50 gmt
author of a blog said ...
anon 15.48 your comment did make me chuckle I'm good at making tea so would prob still be at GS if that was the case. But if you did have any grey matter you would realise you actually participated in a conversation with me, not the other way round. So if I don't reach your nobel economist level of convo I suggest you go "eat a dick" as my sarf london mates would say
14 Aug 09 - 16:07 gmt
author of a blog said ...
Also to point out...over the last 30 mins or so Uni of Michigan confidence levels have come below expectations hence all my trades stated on my blog today are profitable...short oil, long yen and Long USD... So good to be right so often...by my rudimentary calcs that 78% hit rate in the last month alone
14 Aug 09 - 16:11 gmt
anonymous said ...
Fooled by randomness.....come back in two years minimum then we may be interested if you have a successful record
14 Aug 09 - 16:18 gmt
anonymous said ...
Why did you get sacked from GS?
14 Aug 09 - 16:20 gmt
anonymous said ...
@Finbar - please let us know when the SageGuage relaunch happens by an announcement on here
14 Aug 09 - 16:23 gmt
author of a blog said ...
anon 16.18 LoL as a follower of Taleb I don't deny that fact. I think 2 yrs is a tad long though. I fully intend to be back on a desk by then making a nuisance of myself to fellow traders/gamblers etc
14 Aug 09 - 16:29 gmt
author of a blog said ...
anon 16.20 3 of us got the chop from the same desk. Would be happy to tell you as I don't feel at fault ( Was initiated by the senior VP on our desk with guys in Tokyo that went v awry ) but this is too public a forum and I know for a fact quite a few GS guys read this blog
14 Aug 09 - 16:35 gmt
anonymous said ...
@aoab, appreciate that your posts don't need to be grammatically accurate, but the confusion you suffer between your and you're is really grating. Oh, and you appear to have no knowledge of currency market operations either.
14 Aug 09 - 17:42 gmt
Moron said ...
but wy r we not dscussing my priceless insight that women are all whores:(((
14 Aug 09 - 18:40 gmt
Moron said ...
...and they deserve to be used, abused and beaten.....in fact many of them actually enjoy it:))))
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