28JAN09:
Q1-09 DOW: 8900
Q2-09 DOW: 7250
Q3-09 DOW: 5810
Q4-09 DOW: 3960
CITI NATIONALIZED
OBAMA GETS SICK 27AUG09:
Mini Crash 21SEP09 Predicted correctly:
Bailout=Bonuses
Demise of Bear Stearns
Demise of Lehman Bros.
Demise of AIG
Subprime would cause problems
Date of 2007 crash
CRAs were to blame
G20 riots were a party
Northern Rock run
Northern Rock Nationalization
HBOS and RBS demise
UBS really was Useless
I am on another ozone busting tour of the world during the next few weeks and I have correlated my trading performance against my time in the air. It seems the more tired I am, the grumpier and bearish I get. If I sleep well and my bed isn't moving I am bullish and my performance exceeds all expectations. This is nothing new I am sure but lying on a flat bed in first class, with the thin air full of the flatulence of those from the back of the plane, it is no wonder I lose a sense of reality.
Today's reality is that much of the media is grumpy and seeking out bearish news once again. Maybe it's because the hacks wish they were on my plane off to new climates instead of hunched over a well worn MacBook scraping a living rewriting press releases and rehashing old Fintag comments of year gone past.
Strangely the only asset class that is doing well are on the walls of my office and in the underground cellar in my house. Haven't we also done this story too in the past? Is there anything new to report anymore?
But the real story of the day is this. Why, when I fly Virgin Atlantic from London to New York during the day I am given a wash bag and yet when I fly back during the night time I have to ask for one?
BALTIC DRY INDEX HAS WORST WEEK SINCE OCTOBER MELTDOWN AS CHINESE DEMAND SLOWS
The Baltic Dry Index, which tracks shipping costs and is viewed as leading indicator for commodity prices, has had its worst week since the peak of the financial crisis last October, as Chinese demand slowed. The index fell from 3,350 to 2,772 this week - a fall of 17.2pc - as imports of iron ore and coal slowed down. The index is now 35pc lower than its 2009 high, hit on June 3.
Fintag says So Asia is going to pull the West out of its depression? Right ...
Britain has not yet shaken off the risk of slumping into a Japan-style "lost decade", the Bank of England will this week indicate as it downgrades its growth forecasts, and casts deflation as a significant threat. The Bank 's Governor, Mervyn King, will use Wednesday's Inflation Report to signal that the risk of falling victim to a debt deflation trap was one of the primary reasons why the Monetary Policy Committee extended its controversial Quantitative Easing (QE) programme last week. And in a further sign of the fears still surrounding Britain's economy, a prominent expert has said that next year could be even more painful than 2009 as the UK suffers a second wave of the slump.
Fintag says You probably don't suffer from this, but I do. It is where you say something and 2 years later it becomes all the rage. I am neither a trend setter or a soothsayer but just a pragmatist who looks at things the way they are. Read my archives. I have been here before. Next ...
telegraph says " IMF puts total cost of crisis at £7.1 trillion "
independent says " Stephen King: Does the Bank of England know something the rest of us don't? "
U.S. BANK FAILURES RISE TO 72 WITH COLLAPSES IN FLORIDA, OREGON
U.S. bank failures rose to 72 this year with the collapse of two lenders in Florida and one in Oregon amid the worst economic slump since the Great Depression.
Regulators shut First State Bank and Community National Bank, both based in Sarasota, Florida, and Community First Bank in Prineville, Oregon, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. said in statements yesterday. The FDIC was named receiver. Closing the lenders, with combined assets of $769 million and deposits of $662 million, will cost the deposit insurance fund about $185 million.
Fintag says Weird how this sort of news is lost amongst the rest. This is truly shocking and yet we seem to have become be immune to failure. Thankfully we can cheer ourselves up knowing that those canvases on the wall will pay for that Florida retirement...
Tudor Investment Corp., the $10.8 billion hedge-fund firm run by Paul Tudor Jones, said equity markets could decline later this year, creating buying opportunities.
Slowing growth in China and the return of front-page stories on swine flu may be “further catalysts for global equity markets to pause in September,” the Greenwich, Connecticut-based firm said in an Aug. 3 client letter, a copy of which was obtained by Bloomberg News.
Fintag says Truth. Lies. Misinformation. Who really knows?
DECLINES IN EXTERNAL DEBT ELEVATES CONCERN FOR GLOBAL RECOVERY
The decline in external debt exposures of G7 and emerging countries could come at the cost of economic growth, according to Hennessee Group, an adviser to hedge fund investors.
Hennessee voiced concern in early 2009 that the global financial crisis could enter a new and more dangerous phase, one that could push several international countries to the brink of failure and further hinder the global economic recovery. Of particular concern was the dramatic growth in external debt exposures of G7 and emerging countries and the increasing risk of another outright failure similar to that of Iceland when it had a debt to GDP ratio exceeding 900 per cent.
Fintag says Now that is a dramatic statement. Surely WW3 is now imminent? Wars always follow depression.
Fortress Investment Group, which this week announced a narrowed quarterly loss, is none too happy with the U.S. government.
Briger also dismissed the U.S. response to the financial crisis as “parochial,” arguing that just bailing out banks is a short-term expedient.
Fintag says Poor ol' Obama. He is damned if he does and is useless if he doesn't. I suppose it is always better to have a "nice" President in power when things are going wrong. You know. Jimmy Carter, Nelson Mandela, those sorts of people.
The Financial Services Authority (FSA) is to publish a code this week setting out how banks will have to change their policies on pay and bonuses.
The FSA launched a consultation in February looking at measures to discourage excessive risk-taking.
He said that the FSA is responsible for making sure that the calculation of bonuses is not encouraging too much risk that would put banks at risk of failing and also for deciding whether the banks as a whole are distributing too much money for their own health.
Fintag says Ha! What a cop-out. The Banks pay fees to the FSA. If the FSA alienates the Banks, the Banks will go elsewhere. Conflict of Interest. Less art on the walls of the FSA.
MANDELSON TAKES CHARGE AND RESOLVES TO REJECT DARLING 'DEFEATISM'
Lord Mandelson will defend the City from tough European Union legislation during his week at the helm of government, The Times has learnt.
The First Secretary is dismayed at what he regards as Alistair Darling's “defeatist” approach and has promised to redouble efforts to fight off proposals from Brussels, according to industry sources.
Fintag says Fintag was the first to state that Mandy has a deal with Brown to be the next Leader of the UK's Labour Party. The man is dangerous but I will give him due respect for his current actions. Let us hope he can do a Thatcher and knock these jealous German / Frenchies into touch. World War 3 doesn't have to involve weapons of mass destruction - just a middle finger and some rude words.
7 comments
anonymous said ...
oh dear fin...you really are out of touch.
10 Aug 09 - 08:29 gmt
yona said ...
Fin you missed this one while you were away (since you talk about Tudor aka "The Trader")!!!
Oh Fin, there is no way Mandy is going to be the next leader of Neuerarbeitspartei - the man has accustomed to good life of the ruling class. Going from his Lordship First Lord of everyting to the leader of the opposition is aking to deserting your mansion in order to go and work in coal mines as a prole. Oh yes, and der Arbeitspartei is going to be a one of helluva coal mine indeed....deep, wet, dank pit... with no coal in it!
10 Aug 09 - 10:29 gmt
Tradebot said ...
...with Harriet Harperson in charge!! Ha Ha Ha! on a serious note, yes , the risk assets are looking pricey and the lack of sleep and bad breakfast is making me bearish. But when to short? Sooner or later?
10 Aug 09 - 10:32 gmt
Cyclops said ...
Fin, low quality blog today. Is your Editor on hols? Should I short fintag?
Boring Monday syndrome maybe.
10 Aug 09 - 11:03 gmt
MsR said ...
@Tradebot: I am not a huge fan of Harriet H but in fairness I think her problem is often in the delivery of the message rather than the message. She relies too much on heat seeking soundbites these days.
10 Aug 09 - 11:17 gmt
anonymous said ...
If you look carefully at that painting, you can see (in the third dot from the left on the bottom row) a reflection of Finbar, revealing his true identity. Also, in the woman's shiny handbag.
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