28JAN09:
Q1-09 DOW: 8900
Q2-09 DOW: 7250
Q3-09 DOW: 5810
Q4-09 DOW: 3960
CITI NATIONALIZED
OBAMA GETS SICK 27AUG09:
Mini Crash 21SEP09 Predicted correctly:
Bailout=Bonuses
Demise of Bear Stearns
Demise of Lehman Bros.
Demise of AIG
Subprime would cause problems
Date of 2007 crash
CRAs were to blame
G20 riots were a party
Northern Rock run
Northern Rock Nationalization
HBOS and RBS demise
UBS really was Useless
What are they good for? Well actually they are good for a lot of Hedgies and are huge investors. Without them the hedge fund industry would be half the size.
Rumors were they would disappear post Madoff but not at all; they are just reinventing themselves. Its a game of survival as assets have plummeted.
Pre Madoff (PM) a FOHF bought Pertrac, created an asset allocation methodology (equally weighted mostly), hired a few keen and eager due diligence people who liked flying and staying in 1 star hotels, and entertained a few large Dutch pension funds. The money came in and for a scrappy newsletter the fees on fees just rolled in. It was a lifestyle business.
Post Madoff (PM - oops that didn't work), these FOHFs are having to moor up their yachts and do some actual work. They are morphing into mandated managed account platforms, marketing only, fiduciary liability is for others, houses. And this is good for change means survival and selfishly means assets for us Hedgies are safe.
Of course the funds we all want to have as friends are the SWFs and today we link to a table showing you the biggest ones. And they are big but alarmingly are in most cases based on oil assets.
Oil really is the new black. Again.
Quote of the day “There was an implicit greed in not questioning and just accepting unnatural returns.” Hugh Hendry of London-based Eclectica Asset Management on Madoff Investors (CNBC)
U.S. investigators say 10 or more people associated with imprisoned swindler Bernard Madoff could face criminal charges in the coming months, a law enforcement source said on Tuesday.
The source, who asked not be identified because of the continuing investigation into the multibillion-dollar Madoff fraud, said the FBI was "closer to the beginning than the end" of the probe.
Fintag says Phew! None of us ever thought he could do this alone although his low grade clerical staff who did what they were told and fabricated statements must surely not be in the 10. Bets are his family are.
California prepared on Tuesday to resort to issuing IOUs as the giant but cash-strapped U.S. state struggled to approve a new budget in time for the new fiscal year that begins on Wednesday.
The IOUs, which are notes promising payment to vendors and local agencies, or shutting down some public services, are among measures that California and other states may have to rely on as they contend with staggering budget gaps caused by the U.S. recession.
Fintag says July 1 is here and bankruptcy looms ...
yahoo says " Immigrants in US are asking for money from home "
The correlation coefficient for the S&P 500 and the Reuters/Jeffries CRB index of commodities has been at 0.74 for the last 60 days. A value of 1 means perfectly correlated, but to give you the historical significance of a reading of 0.74 — it's the highest correlation in at least five decades, according to Bloomberg.
The S&P is also increasingly moving in tandem with the price of crude oil, with the correlation value above 0.7 in June. The correlation between the S&P and the MSCI Emerging markets index is also apparently the tightest since Russia defaulted on its debt in 1998. While we're told the correlation between the S&P 500 and the HFRI index of hedge funds reached 0.5 per cent in April for the first time in almost five years.
Fintag says That old commodities play is playing out again. Oil supply is up, demand is down but the price keeps on going upwards. Speculators, don't you just love 'em?
business week says " Oil up to near $72 on dollar fall, Nigeria attack "
financial times says " UK economy shrinks most in 50 years "
When the financial crisis struck the global economy last autumn, European governments moved swiftly to keep their biggest banks from falling into an abyss — never mind fears over nationalization.
But now, as big banks on this side of the Atlantic show signs of recovery, a number of their counterparts overseas are sinking into a spiral of deepening losses that has prompted the European Union to consider a more aggressive approach to cleaning up its banking system.
Fintag says Who cares? Markets are rallying and its boom time. Buy those spades ...
US - The Securities and Exchange Commission could bring charges against State Street Corp. in relation to sub-prime related losses in bond funds run by State Street Global Advisors.
Fintag says Subprime - seems such a long time ago.
global pensions says " USS to hire 25 hedge funds as part of alternative investment programme "
13 comments
Munch the Nut said ...
I am a looser .. any questions ?
01 Jul 09 - 06:06 gmt
anonymous said ...
Yes - where did you learn to spell you chump?
01 Jul 09 - 06:39 gmt
Maria said ...
why are the newsletters getting shorter, Mr Taggit?
:)
01 Jul 09 - 09:34 gmt
anonymous said ...
Maria when you are facing torrent of redemptions for completely missing the biggest market rally in over 10 yrs, updating a now tired website for a shrinking population of mongs doesn't seem so important any more
01 Jul 09 - 10:31 gmt
Finbar said ...
I am marketing - lots of new business.
01 Jul 09 - 14:19 gmt
toilet said ...
speaking of mongs,I am decamping tomorrow to the beach ....but i decided i needed some time on Nantucket in August to get in touch with my feminine side so I contacted a lady who told me and I quote'we are desperate to rent so why don't you tell me what you want to pay......'
01 Jul 09 - 14:39 gmt
anonymous said ...
wow. either fin is getting tired of posting snippets or comment-ees are getting run over by Moron, today's newsletter is incredibly........boring!
01 Jul 09 - 15:51 gmt
Finbar said ...
Just about to go on vacation for 5 weeks so packing my bags.
01 Jul 09 - 17:55 gmt
ProblemChild said ...
Hedgies don't need holidays. Holidays are for wimps.
01 Jul 09 - 18:05 gmt
Etaoin said ...
Will there be a market in CA IOUs? I love the idea of them getting them all back as tax payments! Esp. if they are easily transferrable.
Will North Korea begin counterfeiting them?
01 Jul 09 - 18:58 gmt
AthenaDelphi said ...
Fin, when you do leave for vacation - please put up one of your pictures - similar to when you left for 2 months to do study Kabbala (way back when).
Have fun, bring protection, and watch out for tsunami's if going to southeast asia.
Hi MsR, Maria, Moron and Anon Bull!
01 Jul 09 - 22:13 gmt
AthenaDelphi said ...
PS: I'd like a t-shirt that says: Finbar went on vacation and all I got for my viewership support was this t-shirt.
(tiny lettering under: fintag.com).
Blue please.
01 Jul 09 - 22:15 gmt
Moron said ...
Athena honey i have a very simple rule when people refer to me and other people then i shud be the first name in the list of names - DO U UNDERSTAND!!!!!!!
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