28JAN09:
Q1-09 DOW: 8900
Q2-09 DOW: 7250
Q3-09 DOW: 5810
Q4-09 DOW: 3960
CITI NATIONALIZED
OBAMA GETS SICK 27AUG09:
Mini Crash 21SEP09 Predicted correctly:
Bailout=Bonuses
Demise of Bear Stearns
Demise of Lehman Bros.
Demise of AIG
Subprime would cause problems
Date of 2007 crash
CRAs were to blame
G20 riots were a party
Northern Rock run
Northern Rock Nationalization
HBOS and RBS demise
UBS really was Useless
Capitalists can only prosper if the State encourages them, doesn't imprison them or as in many communist countries just turns a blind eye.
The UK government is contributing to over 60% of the GDP. This is more than Cuba, one of the last rampantly communist countries left in the world. Well now the UK has joined the soviet bloc.
So far, the private sector is being tolerated by the index linked wielding civil service. However it is slowing being strangled as capital flows are inefficiently diverted and wasted via the fat cat public sector.
What if you start a new business and want a loan from a bank? Whatever the banks say it is near impossible to gain one. I know a couple of entrepreneurs who have spent 6 months trying to borrow money and they have given up. We might as well all throw in the towel and all work for state for that is where it is going.
Us Hedgies are 100% capitalists. We make money for ourselves and our staff. We go where tax and red tape is low and are nimble enough to set up flexible structures at the flick of a lawyers invoice. Unfortunately the clouds of socialism looming over us in Europe are challenging our beliefs and ostracizing us from society. We are lepers. We are the new minority. But there is hope.The EU Directive that is to kill us off is being challenged hard and we have set up a trade union to cause trouble.
Our brothers and sisters in the Netherlands and Sweden are supporting our cause and helping us with donation raising, making placards and spamming twitter.
Hedgies are angry. We were victims of the credit crunch and we are being blamed for it.
So I have changed my name to Red Fin. I am a pacifist by nature but following a few weeks playing GTA on my xBox have decided to look for a fight.
Signup to my newsletter if you want to join in.
Sorry Madoff. I am truly sorry on a number of counts. He didn't commit a fraud but the jury said he did. He was coming out in 2 years to write his memoirs but the jury said 150 instead. Crime really doesn't pay.
Bernard Madoff was sentenced to 150 years in prison earlier today, a maximum sentence. In front of the Manhattan courthouse, Madoff victims spoke out. CNBC has collected some excellent videos. WATCH:
Burt Ross, the former mayor of Fort Lee, New Jersey, offered perhaps the most memorable reaction to Madoff sentencing. Ross suggested that Madoff should be sent to the type of hell depicted in Dante's Inferno.
Fintag says Seems rather harsh. The man obviously has mental problems and should be given counselling. Even so, the people have spoken. Power to the people.
finalternatives says " Fairfield Greenwich Reopens New York Office "
Consultancy firms Towers, Perrin, Forster & Crosby and Watson Wyatt will merge, the two firms announced yesterday.
The US$3.5bn all stock deal will create a new publicly listed company called Towers Watson & Co. Some 55% of the revenues of the new company will come from its benefits practice.
Fintag says Bye bye Watson Wyatt and hello err, Towers Watson. That will take some getting used to.
HEDGE FUNDS RALLY TROOPS TO RAISE FUNDS FOR EU CAMPAIGN
A GROUP of hedge funds is putting together a fighting fund to battle the planned European Commission Directive on Alternative Investment Fund Managers that they say will unfairly punish the UK hedge fund industry.
The Alternative Investment Managers Association (Aima), has already put together a steering committee of funds, including BlackRock and Marshall Wace, to discuss ways to combat the proposals.
One of the most senior fund managers at Prudential has attacked hedge funds as selfish and devious and blasted derivatives as “the scourge of the modern age”.
Tom Dobell, who manages the £3 billion Recovery Fund for M&G, the insurer's asset management unit, made the remarks in letters sent this month to the fund's 100,000 investors.
Fintag says Oh dear. So we have a long only lovin', 19th century once a year asset allocation committee veteran who doesn't understand what we do having a paddy. No wonder Prudential has yet again let its pension holders down so badly.
Off you go. Buy some real estate and long only retail stocks. Hold them for 10 years and you never know you might make some money.
Many of the Pru's rivals love us to bits. Especially the Dutch and American ones.
The world's central bankers have warned that the British economy faces relapsing into another recession - the much-feared "double dip" downturn.
A continuing drought in bank lending, evidenced in the latest figures from the Bank of England, and the threat that spiraling public borrowing will feed through to higher interest rates and inflation, are judged by international economists to be mortal dangers to a sustained recovery.
The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), which comprises the 30 most advanced economies in the world, added to the gloom, saying that Britain remained "deep" in recession and faced a "bleak short-term outlook".
Fintag says The dreaded W.
I like the W hotel in New York, but it's a bit small and trendy for me.
ANNALS OF UNINTENTIONALLY REVEALING PRESS RELEASES, HEDGE FUND EDITION
The FT Alphaville team receives quite a few unsolicited and often irrelevant press releases, many of which we delete with nary a second glance - while others we lampoon mercilessly.
And others, we can't help but read - like the missive which landed in our inboxes, with the subject line, “Hedge funds bull**** on art” (censorship FT Alphaville's).
Fintag says Spelling isn't a hedgies greatest attribute. That comes elsewhere and is useful in the bedroom [Editor: Steady]
He grew up in elite circles in Buenos Aires, acquiring the polish and privileged connections that paved the way for him to become a star private banker in New York to wealthy clients at UBS and JPMorgan Chase.
BUBS quietly settled the Finra action for $1.44 million last December. In mid-June, UBS filed a broker report for Mr. Arbizu's successor, Mr. Decastro, saying that he had left the firm amid an internal investigation of “violations of firm compliance and client confidentiality rules.”
“I know I am stupid,” Mr. Arbizu said. “I feel that in all these years I had my head divided into two sections, in one small section all this problem and in the rest my 'normal' life.”
Fintag says Pirate equity is full of crooks. I mean, they all know each other and play pass the parcel all day long. One fund launches and it buys its assets from another PE fund so why not do it personally? Maybe I was a bit too strong. They aren't all crooks in the biblical sense; more in the moral sense.
SPARX TO START NEW GLOBAL MACRO HEDGE FUND, PRESIDENT ABE SAYS
Sparx Group Co., Asia's biggest hedge-fund manager, plans to start its first global macro fund, adding a strategy that was among the few winners in 2008 when an equities rout led to the only annual loss in its 20-year history.
The fund, which will wager on trends in stocks, bonds and currencies worldwide, will be sold to institutional investors in the next few months as Tokyo-based Sparx expands beyond equity- related offerings, President Shuhei Abe said. He declined to give the fund's size, saying that and other details are still being worked out.
Fintag says How can something so dull and irrelevant get a whole Bloomberg page?
Anyone can say they are launching a new fund. Raising real assets is the challenge and we never get to hear about whether they were successful or not.
CNBC reports that the size and strength of JPMorgan's balance sheet is now thought by many to put the firm in pole position to take market share from investment banking rival Goldman Sachs. Dick Bove, the well-respected bank Rochdale Securities bank analyst said last week that 'JPMorgan can (now) compete with, and beat, Goldman Sachs'.
In the meantime, Reuters reports that JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon has warned that the US financial services / markets industry could suffer if it has too many regulators. Writing in The Wall Street Journal, Dimon said: 'Any regulatory overhaul should ensure that government oversight of the financial system is efficient....(but) we should avoid the temptation to have multiple regulators just for the sake of having them. Three or four regulators looking at (and fighting over) the same issue is not a wise use of taxpayer money. Companies can't operate that way. Neither should the government'.
Fintag says And why not? Goldman wasn't always the best just like BMW wasn't.
JP Morgan are the new Audi.
PROMINENT RESEARCHER FINDS “EXTREME VALUE THEORY” CAN TURN VAR INTO A BETTER CRYSTAL BALL
The risk-controlled portfolio also peaked 4 months after the S&P 500 Index during the technology bubble and began recovery 3 months earlier. In the present downturn, it peaked in July 2007, 3 months ahead of the Index. It remains to be seen where the bottom of the current decline will occur.
Taken together, VaR and CVaR allow both the forecasting and management of risk. Using Extreme Value Theory to estimate them is the only prudent approach in turbulent markets or in the risk management of hedge funds where fat tails are the rule rather than the exception.
Fintag says Of course this assumes normal distribution. Which is not proven.
V@R died in 2007. It is a waste of time. It is meaningless. Any trader who trades using V@R won't survive very long. V@R keeps the academics happy and gives Risky Quants a reason to be in a job. Regulators like it because it sounds complicated. It is a long only measure and I don't even know why I am giving it any space.
The only people who make money form V@R are RiskMetrics. This listed company charges hundreds of thousands to produce pivot tables from positional information. Capitalism at its best.
economist says " The simplest behavioral finance model ever "
20 comments
A Psycho said ...
First!
30 Jun 09 - 07:30 gmt
Maria said ...
this green double decker reminds me of the completely red air greenland airplane that i've seen a while back...it looks conspicuous.
30 Jun 09 - 07:57 gmt
anonymous said ...
Didn't Boris promise to bring back the Routemaster? Where are they?
30 Jun 09 - 08:35 gmt
Confused said ...
@the editor of this blog: I'm intrigued to discover whether or not you actually read what Fin has written before it is published. The number of spelling mistakes and grammatical errors in today's edition is quite impressive.
30 Jun 09 - 08:52 gmt
Maria said ...
@confused:
so what? who cares about those? this edition is what i can call 'a classic fintag' :)
i think none of the goals of this newsletter (if indeed there are any goals) is to be gramatically correct :)...
30 Jun 09 - 08:57 gmt
damiendamien said ...
"The fund, which will wager on trends in stocks, bonds and currencies worldwide"
Classy. Are there any funds that choose assets randomly? I mean seriously, one that was sent up by a disciple of Malkeil as a UCITS compliant art prank?
30 Jun 09 - 09:20 gmt
A Psycho said ...
@Maria a London bus journey can be v romantic
30 Jun 09 - 09:58 gmt
anonymous said ...
Romantic? They smell like sh1t and normally have half of London's mentally challenged population riding them
30 Jun 09 - 10:07 gmt
Maria said ...
oh i've tried them, smelled like amsterdam, and then tried the metro and it was a sauna, so i finally decided to walk :)
30 Jun 09 - 10:09 gmt
Moron said ...
Maria honey, I will plug my mains cable into your love socket and give you a shock with some of my direct current.
30 Jun 09 - 11:12 gmt
Confused said ...
@Maria: I fully expect Fin to make many spelling/grammatical mistakes. In fact, I welcome them; the content is the most important part of this blog, and the only reason for my patronage. I'm simply questioning whether or not the editor does any editing at all. I'd just like to know what the editor does if not correct errors...
30 Jun 09 - 11:16 gmt
Top Cat said ...
@Confused. Surely you know by now that Fin, the editor, and Finbar's IT Geek are one and the same person?
30 Jun 09 - 11:39 gmt
Maria said ...
@confused i can tell you what the editor does (if the editor is not Fin in a different guise): he is stressing some points by intelligently providing necessary sarcasm for some of Fin's comments... i I were Fin, I would probably take my editor out for a beer from time to time :), because he sounds fun.
@ Moron: ?? :) i thought u'r an elephant :)
30 Jun 09 - 11:44 gmt
A Psycho said ...
@Maria I wouldn't be as uncouth as Moron...would you ever go salsa dancing?
30 Jun 09 - 11:54 gmt
Maria said ...
:)
why am i getting these replies ?? i am as serious as a girl can be...and still i get 'honey-ed' and 'salsa-ed':)...i should probably not laugh this much :)...but i can't help it:).
30 Jun 09 - 12:04 gmt
anonymous said ...
moron well done for being on the wrong side of the biggest quarterly rally of your career...nice job
30 Jun 09 - 13:00 gmt
Moron said ...
culdnt be arsed mate...i like too blow up once in a while...keeps this bullsh*t job exciting.....when u reach my level of cynicism ... u will understand.....try crashing a car on a racetrack just for the adrenaline rush:)))0
30 Jun 09 - 13:02 gmt
Anonymous Bull said ...
I bet Moron is secretly working at a long/short shop...pretending to be an ultra bear on here to p*ss other posters off
30 Jun 09 - 13:51 gmt
Charles P said ...
Madoff. Not one word about his greedy investors who all thought they were stealing from someone else. At least I have something to talk about at cocktail parties.
30 Jun 09 - 15:27 gmt
damiendamien said ...
I think I read somewhere they may be able to reclaim taxes. The profits weren't real, so neither were their taxes. Though this puts those who sold out before it all fell apart in a funny situation.