28JAN09:
Q1-09 DOW: 8900
Q2-09 DOW: 7250
Q3-09 DOW: 5810
Q4-09 DOW: 3960
CITI NATIONALIZED
OBAMA GETS SICK 27AUG09:
Mini Crash 21SEP09 Predicted correctly:
Bailout=Bonuses
Demise of Bear Stearns
Demise of Lehman Bros.
Demise of AIG
Subprime would cause problems
Date of 2007 crash
CRAs were to blame
G20 riots were a party
Northern Rock run
Northern Rock Nationalization
HBOS and RBS demise
UBS really was Useless
Trading is an emotionless activity. If it wasn't, the Priory would be full of jibbering idiots. Us hedgies have other things to worry about. We worry about events that we cannot control, predict or risk manage.
Take Scotts. It's a great restaurant. They know me and I know them. I know that if I am 20 minutes late they will give my table away. So I worry that if I am late, my guests will not get to eat at Scotts. My mitigation is to ring up, offer bribes, and run a bit faster but I would prefer it if this was not the case.
More importantly, here are some others:
1. The EU Directive. Is this for real? I worry that I will have to move to Malta.
2. Why did I move my prime broking from Goldmorgan Stanley to Credit Suisse just after Lehman went down?
3. Why can't I have the leverage I want and not that dictated by some spotty 12 year old Credit Officer?
4. What do Investors really want when it comes to transparency? An extra page on my newsletter or a copy of my cell phone log?
5. Why is the definition of Client's Monies being challenged by the courts re Lehman? Its my money and those thieving expense lovin' Administrators PWC are stealing my assets.
6. What is wrong with having my mates on the board on my funds?
Get the drift?
Here is some news for you to worry about:
BRITAIN FACING BIGGEST DEFICIT IN WESTERN WORLD, WARNS OECD
In a further blow for Alistair Darling, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development also warned that the Government may have to pump more than £130bn extra into the banking system.
Most economic statistics released in recent months have been better than expected, including the CBI's distributive trades survey yesterday, which was the strongest for a year. However, the OECD downgraded its forecast for UK growth this year to a contraction of 4.3pc - compared with a previous forecast of -3.7pc.
Fintag says ...and the FTSE goes up on this news because, yeah, its already priced into the markets. Pleeeeeease!
The European Central Bank said it will lend banks 442 billion euros ($621 billion) for 12 months, the most it has ever allotted in an auction, as it steps up efforts to unblock credit markets in the 16-nation euro region.
The Frankfurt-based ECB filled all bids in its first offer of 12-month loans to banks at the current benchmark interest rate of 1 percent. The 1,121 banks that participated receive the funds tomorrow. The euro interbank offered rate, or Euribor, for 12-month loans fell to 1.57 percent today, a record low.
Fintag says Debt. Printing press. Unemployment. Trade deficits. Gloom. Doom. But will my new iPhone be delivered today as promised or has it got lost in the mail?
THE worst recession since the Second World War is drawing to a close, according to the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development's (OECD) quarterly economic outlook, published yesterday.
Stimulatory government policies and improving financial conditions meant the Paris-based think tank revised its forecasts upwards for the first time since June 2007, predicting that GDP would shrink by 4.1 per cent in 2009 in the OECD area, before expanding by 0.7 per cent next year. But the think tank revised down its outlook for the UK.
Fintag says I had better crank up my social engagements then.
The Governor of the Bank of England inflamed tensions with the Chancellor on Wednesday when he told MPs that he had not been consulted over imminent Treasury proposals to shake up banking regulation.
Minutes after playing down claims of a rift with Alistair Darling, Mervyn King left the Commons Treasury Committee stunned as he disclosed that he had not seen a draft of Mr Darling's crucial regulation White Paper, due as soon as next week, and did not know what is in it. He agreed with Conservative MPs on the committee that the system of bank regulation is “a mess”.
Fintag says These people run my country and they are arguing over who does what.
independent says " King warns of the 'long hard slog' to clear Britain's debt "
Almost half of the world's 8.6 million wealthiest investors have lost confidence in their fund manager, according to a report that lays bare how the credit crunch has damaged their personal fortunes.
Investors' lack of faith prompted a quarter of those with financial assets of more $1 million to pull funds from a manager or dismiss their adviser last year, according to a report by Merrill Lynch Wealth Management and Capgemini, the consultant.
Fintag says Given many of these wealthy people are fund managers anyway, it makes sense ...
When President Obama unveiled his financial regulation plan last week, a collective sigh of relief was heard throughout the U.S. financial community. The “regulation overkill” many feared on Wall Street had not materialized.
So bravo to Mr. Obama, who has demonstrated the good sense not to kill the goose that laid all those golden eggs.
Will Europe's politicians be smart enough to follow his lead? The jury is out. But there is reason to believe “regulation overkill” may be on the menu for Europe.
Fintag says Every day I worry that the average hack has an attention span of about a week. Stories are recopied and paste and this old story of us being berated again and not being to blame is here again. Of course we are innocent.
The Treasury was "leisurely" in updating its plan for dealing with a bank in trouble, according to a report by a committee of MPs.
The weaknesses over readiness for a bank hitting difficulties were clear in 2004 - three years before the run on the Rock, the report said.
The Public Accounts Committee (PAC) view is the latest critical report on the Northern Rock crisis.
Fintag says In days gone past, banks were saved behind closed doors. It happened in the early 1990s and the early 1970s. Transparency and blame aren't always the best solutions.
Another ratings agency is changing the way it looks at the hedge fund industry.
Moody's Investors Services said it will now group its ratings into five categories and offer a ratings scorecard to make its methodology clearer, Dow Jones Newswires. It's move follows Fitch Ratings' decision to change the way it gauges risk in the funds of hedge funds it rates.
Odi Lahav of Moody's took pains to distinguish the firm's hedge fund ratings from its ratings of structured finance products, which are blamed in part for the magnitude of the financial crisis. He told Dow Jones that Moody's uses a “fundamentally different” approach for the few hedge funds it rates, focusing on governance, valuation and trading systems, and not taking into account a hedge fund's performance or strategy.
Fintag says What a complete waste of time and resources. What are they rating? The funds? The managers? The performance? The risk of default? The staff / coffee machine ratio?
26. I'm more aware of why I love my job because of Twitter. As I was returning from a sales trip, I tweeted: “Anyone who thinks the capital markets are collapsing should go out and spend a day with the traders - lots of innovation going on out here!” The act of paying attention to the ironic, funny, shocking, and curious things that happen from day to day makes me more aware of why I love my job.
Fintag says Follow me most days for my reflections on life and odd comment on what my latest long and short ideas are. Here is a taster:
Short socks, dollars and term memory: Long teeth, tin and oil.
The greatest fear among hedge fund managers and executives, who have seen their industry shrink in the financial crisis, is neither the flight of wealthy investors nor ill-functioning markets but regulation, according to a survey to be released Wednesday.
Among respondents, 38 percent said that "onerous government regulation" was the biggest threat to the industry, reflecting their anxiety over Washington's heightened attention to hedge funds and other Wall Street firms involved in the financial crisis. Lack of willing investors was a distant second, with 16 percent. Other factors, such as a lack of access to capital and a lack of market transparency, received single-digit percentages.
From Rick Bookstaber, the Seven Habits of Highly Suspicious Hedge Funds:
1. No independent risk reporting 2. A change for the worse in the critical risk numbers 3. Increased use of derivatives 4. High level of secrecy 5. Growth in headcount and lifestyle 6. Decline in assets under management 7. Lackluster recent performance
Fintag says If only Due Diligence were that simple.
8. Check the nostrils for signs of white powder
33 comments
Munch the Conquerer said ...
FIRST!!!!!!!!
YA-HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!
All ready to LOSE?
LOSERS?
LOSER Island, SINKING into the sea?
THEN, we'll take your women!
bwahahahahaha
Lots of love, from South Africa
25 Jun 09 - 06:32 gmt
anonymous said ...
Nice comment - I refer you to my youtube link yesterday.
25 Jun 09 - 07:12 gmt
Alpha60 said ...
Fin - Your last comment "8. Check nostrils for white powder"...Think most Ldn/NY HF managers PM would fail that test!!
25 Jun 09 - 08:56 gmt
said ...
Any of you English POWDER PUFFS wanna hold conversation?
25 Jun 09 - 13:20 gmt
anonymous said ...
Not with someone of such a limited intellect as yourself. Unattractive proposition.
25 Jun 09 - 14:09 gmt
Maria said ...
hahaha...check the nostrils:)
yes, I've seen some commercials for the new ipod and I am tempted to have it solely for that amazing application that finds your car... normally i send myself sms's with the streets where I'm parked :) and then i forget i did that ...and get panicky for not finding my car :)
25 Jun 09 - 16:18 gmt
anonymous said ...
Amazing how few comments there are when that tool Moron is away (is he on holiday?) I sometimes think only Moron and a few ragtag South Africans read this blog now as the former has driven everyone away
25 Jun 09 - 16:47 gmt
Maria said ...
@anon: isn't it? i was thinking the same thing...
maybe Moron didn't "look right/look left" and a car drove over him...:)
in any case, one thing is sure: very very few comments these days...but the holidays might be the cause.
25 Jun 09 - 16:50 gmt
anonymous said ...
Perhaps he finally got sacked for his shoddy performance over the past few months and dare not show his face here.....Anon Bull will be loving it
25 Jun 09 - 17:09 gmt
A Psycho said ...
Hello Maria, enjoying the sunny weather in London?
25 Jun 09 - 17:12 gmt
Moron said ...
Moron never gets sacked ladies......but once in a while I like studied silence.....PEASANTS!!!!
25 Jun 09 - 17:23 gmt
anonymous said ...
Yeh right. More likely is the sunny weather is showing up more streaky windows meaning your rag and bucket are in greater demand
25 Jun 09 - 18:01 gmt
A Psycho said ...
I think Moron probably faced a long queue at the internet cafe today, as he has now been re-trenched
25 Jun 09 - 18:55 gmt
Maria said ...
A psycho... the weather was quite nice, but I stayed less than 3 days. i would like to drive in London (on the wrong side:) ), it might be fun and quite stressful for the other drivers :)...
25 Jun 09 - 19:51 gmt
Moron said ...
Maria honey i wud like to drive u around london:)))
25 Jun 09 - 19:56 gmt
Maria said ...
u know, frisky as i am, i got really shocked by the drunk ladies on the streets :)...I'm not sure I'm actually fit to stay in london longer than 2-3 days :). i might sound a little sexist, but the gentlemen did not shock me as much :)...
studied semi-silence re the 'honey treatment':)
25 Jun 09 - 20:06 gmt
Moron said ...
Maria u bring out my inner animal:)))
25 Jun 09 - 20:10 gmt
Maria said ...
the toad?:)
25 Jun 09 - 20:18 gmt
Moron said ...
no honey the horny elephant.....now check up wikipedia to see why i chose to be an elephant....u will learn something new:)))))
25 Jun 09 - 20:51 gmt
Maria said ...
i did look it up... should i associate you with a white elephant,then?:)
25 Jun 09 - 22:02 gmt
Richardlogo said ...
@Maria typo - cool app for an iPhone rather than an iPod gizmag.com/iphone-app-helps-you-find-your-parked-car/9609/
25 Jun 09 - 23:28 gmt
Maria said ...
true, i did not see that, i was thinking of an i-phone. thanks :)
26 Jun 09 - 07:49 gmt
anonymous said ...
No Fin - do you think he was really MJ?
26 Jun 09 - 08:38 gmt
Top Cat said ...
Love it! Although more likely he was a childhood fan and is too upset to type.....
26 Jun 09 - 08:43 gmt
Maria said ...
it is a bit strange to think MJ is dead though...
26 Jun 09 - 08:55 gmt
anonymous said ...
Gone to live with his buddy Elvis (ex father-in-law) on some Caribbean island
26 Jun 09 - 09:04 gmt
Maria said ...
where's fin. i can't be expected to make a news selection myself :)
i actually went to a 'primary source' this morning but I don't even have enough patience to read the titles :)
26 Jun 09 - 09:15 gmt
ProblemChild said ...
FIRST SUCKERS!
26 Jun 09 - 09:18 gmt
anonymous said ...
ProblemChild, nice fail.
26 Jun 09 - 09:44 gmt
anonymous said ...
Michael Jackson - dead. I blame it on the boogie
26 Jun 09 - 09:47 gmt
anonymous said ...
Jackson - Breaking news...…it wasnt a heart attack , he was last seen in a childrens hospital having a stroke
26 Jun 09 - 09:54 gmt
Confused said ...
What's the difference between MJ and Sir Alex Ferguson?
Come August, Ferguson will be playing Giggs.
26 Jun 09 - 10:19 gmt
anonymous said ...
Almost 11am and no newsletter. I want a refund. Oh hang on, I don't pay anything.....
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