28JAN09:
Q1-09 DOW: 8900
Q2-09 DOW: 7250
Q3-09 DOW: 5810
Q4-09 DOW: 3960
CITI NATIONALIZED
OBAMA GETS SICK 27AUG09:
Mini Crash 21SEP09 Predicted correctly:
Bailout=Bonuses
Demise of Bear Stearns
Demise of Lehman Bros.
Demise of AIG
Subprime would cause problems
Date of 2007 crash
CRAs were to blame
G20 riots were a party
Northern Rock run
Northern Rock Nationalization
HBOS and RBS demise
UBS really was Useless
Andy Murray was in the shower next to me. He likes preening his hair and had enough hair products to open up a couple of hair salons. I crossed the road to Boots and bought a post work out snack and strawberry and banana smoothy. The auto check out machine had an update patch and was slow. I hit the buttons and swore a lot. The girl next to me was deciding whether to buy a bleaching kit. Her hair was dark brown. She left it on the check out machine and the electro voice complained. Nearby an O2 store had queues of people waiting for it to open. The iPhone really is a drug.
My cab was unusually clean and smelled of Andy Murray so I jumped out as quickly as I could and my door smacked into someone carrying a Starbucks. I gave them a fiver and they said it wasn't enough. I checked my portfolio to see if I was long coffee. I am.
So there you go. All true and extremely dull. The 21st century, don't you just love it.
Apparently blogs are out of date and this will soon have to be 140 character sentences of inane commentary. [Editor: No change there then].
Dinner Party At the weekend I learned about the new mini boom in Commercial Real Estate in London. Due to the cheap as chips GBP, Italians and Spanish have been paying silly money for prime commercial property but that this boom is nearly bust. The bargain hunters are out but with no tenants, the yields will collapse once more. Of course with zero interest rates, yields are looking healthy but only when tenants are paying.
Many landlords are offering 10 year deals of rent free. It is better to have someone pay the rates and taxes than not at all. Just like air planes - better to have seats full of bums than empty. So once again we shall see burnt fingers and foreigners looking stupid.
I note very cheap flights being offered to Australia (sub GBP400) and last night I bought a first class ticket on Virgin to Los Angeles return for less than GBP1000.
Upshot? Short those airlines, and commercial property and go long coffee, hedge funds, hair products and Apple (again).
Big Boy My hit stats report came in and it normally goes into my spam folder. So I took a look. 750,000 hits in May. Surely some sort of joke? There seems to be a correlation with the dumbing down of this site and the number of hits.
Tomorrow I shall be investigating why hedgies are more attractive than bankers and whether crop circles can be used to predict the markets.
PROPERTY RUSH AS BILLIONS RAISED TO PICK UP BARGAINS
Depressed commercial property prices have prompted a wave of interest in the market with up to 16 firms currently working on or readying plans to launch real estate funds.
Blackstone, the New York-listed financial services firm, heads the list with plans to raise around $2bn (£1.2bn) in Europe for a new Special Situations real estate fund.
The fund will look to buy up cheap real estate debt rather than equity. Blackstone recently raised $400m from high-net-worth individuals for a similar segregated fund. The cash was raised in just three weeks.
A source said: "There is incredible dislocation in the market. The opportunities in the real estate debt market are staggering. I don't think the raising is a signal that we've hit the bottom of the market by any means. "But there are some incredible bargains to be had in the debt arena. And Blackstone could have a relatively free ride given the travails at the property arms of some of its main rivals."
Morgan Stanley has launched a custodial service for hedge funds in a bid to shore up its prime brokerage business. The banks said its prime brokerage clients will have the option of placing their long securities in a custody account provided by the bank's chartered trust company, Morgan Stanley Trust National Association (MSTNA).
Hedge funds have become concerned about the safety of assets held in prime brokerage accounts following the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008. An estimated $40-$70 billion in hedge fund assets held by the Lehman's European arm were frozen in the bankruptcy proceedings.
Fintag says ...as predicted by FiNTAG many months ago. MS has lost a lot of PB clients and it had to provide some sort of bankruptcy remote protection. The big problem is custody businesses take many years to reach critical mass and this is just a publicity stunt from a wounded animal.
Next up? Goldman Sachs. Goldman who used to build everything are using RiskMetrics for their risk and Citi for their Custody. Even the best sometimes have to admit defeat.
Governments that have borrowed heavily to fight the economic crisis should not accumulate any more debt, the president of the European Central Bank has said.
Jean-Claude Trichet said existing stimulus packages were "sufficient".
"There is a moment where you cannot spend more and accumulate more debts. We are at that moment," he said.
Fintag says On Saturday I was sent 2 new credit cards. An Amex and a Visa. The total credit limit is a staggering GBP50,000. So I have set up a new bank called FiNTAG Shark Loans. Check me out on craigslist - GBP2000 loans at 25% APR repayable after 12 months.
Top hedge funds have been buying up Lehman Brothers' debt in hopes that the failed investment bank's estate can win court battles to recover billions of dollars in collateral held by competitors with whom it did business. The bulk of the potential claims stems from JPMorgan Chase's role as a clearing bank for Lehman in the repurchase - or repo - markets. Lehman borrowed heavily in the repo markets - a practice that left it susceptible to a loss of confidence.
Fintag says At 10 cents a debt, it is an interesting trade. However, Linklaters have been telling the market that all this comingled debt is worthless but all I say is who are they? My lawyers beat them so there. As you know I have some collateral stuck at the bank of fluff and as time goes by the less it seems I will see as much as I thought.
NEWSREEL: “SUBSCRIPTION GATES”, DARWIN AND FREE TRADE IN HEDGE FUNDS
The Economist evokes Darwin again (as it likes to do) to describe recent hedge fund culling. But if the evolution of species requires competition, then ironically, the seeds of the next overpopulation may be planted in today's somewhat-less-than-competitive environment for hedge fund investing...
“This Darwinian process may have helped those managers who survived. A smaller industry means there is less competition for profitable opportunities. Work by Bill Fung and Narayan Naik of the London Business School shows that one of the best periods for hedge-fund outperformance occurred in the aftermath of the collapse of Long-Term Capital Management in 1998. Then, as recently, market prices moved erratically, creating anomalies to exploit.”
Fintag says We are back.
WORLD'S BIGGEST HEDGE FUNDS OPPOSE EU CAP ON LEVERAGE
"The idea that one times shareholder assets is highly leveraged is perfectly ludicrous," he said. "Most damaging is also discrimination against any fund manager not set up in the EU, which is very worrying to the Americans. It is not very clearly written and was obviously done in a hurry. Much of it needs to be redrafted urgently."
One hedge industry source expressed fears that it could cause "hundreds of funds to shut down overnight" or relocate outside Europe. AIMA's members manage 75pc of global hedge fund industry assets.
Fintag says Shut down? No, run off to Switzerland and sink the Euro. Nobody bullies a hedgie.
Which brings us to the debate on macro-prudential regulation. In good times, banks would hold more capital; in bad times, less. There are two reasons for this: the first is dynamic provisioning, which makes sense: build up reserves to make sure you don't go bust when loans start to default. The second is much less convincing: if banks are forced to jam on the brakes when the going gets good, bubbles could be eliminated. Central bankers are fans of this approach as they want us to believe that had they used interest rates to control the explosion of credit, the damage to GDP would have been too great. Much better, they claim, to start varying how much capital banks must put aside - and use interest rates only for fighting consumer price inflation. But this is too simplistic, given how central bank policy stoked the bubble. Another problem with macro-prudential rules is that regulators within and between countries will disagree on the state of the economy, which could be a nightmare. Using prices to control the supply of money is better than using quantity controls. It is a lesson we learnt in the 1970s, when credit was rationed. Let us hope we are not about to forget it.
Fintag says I still don't understand the rationale for capital adequacy. It is a joke. I mean nobody talks about SIVs any more and these are being used more than ever to move crap assets off regulatory returns.
Never trust a banker...
hitc says " Mistress Gets 8 Years For Murder Of Banker She Loved "
Battered U.S. airlines are trimming first- and business-class seating in favor of coach on international flights as they wait for signs of life in high-end travel that could presage a broader recovery.
So far, these signs are scarce, but if a global economic recovery takes hold, airlines with the best international routes will recover the fastest.
Until that happens, however, U.S.-based global carriers -- especially those with a large transpacific presence -- will suffer more than their rivals.
Former Formula 1 driver Michael Schumacher was 'unmasked' as Top Gear's The Stig at the start of the latest series - but fans are still left wondering about the true identity of the mysterious test driver. The seven-times world champion took off the white helmet during an interview with Jeremy Clarkson after completing a lap of the Top Gear circuit in 1 minute 10.7 seconds in a £1million Ferrari FSX - seven seconds faster than ever before.
The Stig test drives cars around the Top Gear track in Dunsfold Park, Surrey, and trains each week's guest for their lap for the Star in a Reasonably-Priced Car feature.
Fintag says Ha. He was good in the wet and that should have given it away. Very amusing.
Finbar Taggit is really Mervyn King.
15 comments
Munch the Greatest said ...
FIRST!
SLUTS!!!
MWAHAHAHAHAHAHAA
Anyone want to talk RUGBY?????
MWAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
22 Jun 09 - 07:07 gmt
Munch said ...
That's right!
ALL nice and quiet from the LOSER island!
Keep mit that way - or else!
{draws forefinger across throat}
22 Jun 09 - 08:43 gmt
MsR said ...
Munch: What are these comments? You are not the man I used to go to garden parties with. Here at Ms R Towers, rugby (and darts) are the only sports we don't do but it was not a thrashing. Now be the gentleman you used to be.
22 Jun 09 - 08:58 gmt
anonymous said ...
The boks scraped through you idiot, the Lions put on a pretty good show. LOSER island? Get real idiot. South Africa is a dysfunctional state
22 Jun 09 - 09:43 gmt
Boerbull said ...
"he Lions put on a pretty good show"
Oh that's a jolly good trenchant observation, what?
They're going to put on an even BETTER show in Pretoria. It's called the Complete Capitulation Show!
Enjoy!
LOSERS!
22 Jun 09 - 10:19 gmt
Anonymous Bull said ...
Who is this Boerbull?? Even more annoying than Moron and his short calls...There can only be 1 Bull on this site and that is me!!
22 Jun 09 - 12:37 gmt
Lex said ...
The comments on this site are really letting the guys/girls down who do all the hard work. Shame.
22 Jun 09 - 13:02 gmt
anonymous said ...
Couldn't agree more, although at least Moron has gone quiet, amazing considering markets are down
22 Jun 09 - 13:58 gmt
Moron said ...
ATTACK KILL DESTROY!!!!!!!!
22 Jun 09 - 14:43 gmt
anonymous said ...
given the level of inane banter that proliferates this site and the size of the SA contingent currently, it would seem that IT help desks must be pretty slow right now. Are there not enough alternative sports sites for you all to boast/whine/bleat on? You never know Moron may be right!
22 Jun 09 - 15:02 gmt
Anonmous Bull said ...
The SPX needs to break and close below 895 before I'm convinced of this pullback. Lets not forget the invisible hand which has been holding this market up for a while now
22 Jun 09 - 15:57 gmt
Munch said ...
LOSER Island!
Yes, UK and USA are going to SLIDE into the sea, slipping on an OCEAN of debt and toxicity!
Bye Bye, losers!
22 Jun 09 - 18:44 gmt
llcarlos said ...
So let it be written. So let it be done. 893. ramer saw it coming.
22 Jun 09 - 23:13 gmt
howard said ...
@llcarlos -thx Pharoah - inane comments are your sole contributions - keep swimming, the river ain't that wide!!
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