28JAN09:
Q1-09 DOW: 8900
Q2-09 DOW: 7250
Q3-09 DOW: 5810
Q4-09 DOW: 3960
CITI NATIONALIZED
OBAMA GETS SICK 27AUG09:
Mini Crash 21SEP09 Predicted correctly:
Bailout=Bonuses
Demise of Bear Stearns
Demise of Lehman Bros.
Demise of AIG
Subprime would cause problems
Date of 2007 crash
CRAs were to blame
G20 riots were a party
Northern Rock run
Northern Rock Nationalization
HBOS and RBS demise
UBS really was Useless
Despite urging you all to vote UKIP in protest at the "EU Directive" that will force us Hedgies into a land of red tape and business prevention, the party came second. As you know I hate losers and today I feel like a loser. However, other commentators are saying that by beating Labour into third place, we have effectively bashed in the last nail in Gordon Brown's coffin so it isn't such a bad result.
Thankfully, Europe didn't swing to the extreme right although a few mavericks sneaked in and the EU Parliament will be a lot noisey than it used to be. No more rubber stamping and expense abuse.
The weekend was a good one for Billy (Elliot), Jenson (Button) and Roger (Federer). As for Gordon Brown, the odds of him surviving the end of the week are looking bleak. However, like a well organised Hedge Fund, our Prime Minister is locked in nicely and it is very difficult to open up the redemption gate. He set the rules and is enjoying the fruits of his Labour [Editor: That is awful ...]
Not surprisingly, the number of books about the causes and consequences of the financial crisis has proliferated in recent months. To help our readers keep up, Financial News has compiled the following list of 10 finance books released this year along with brief synopses and links to reviews and excerpts.
Fintag says Of course books are not the best resource. Blogs are much better because they are reporting warts 'n' all real time and as we know History likes to be distorted.
As a Hedgie I like to ponder. So I have created for your pleasure my top 10 events that changed the world (post second world war). This has been tested on some mates in the pub and slightly changed for an international audience but I hope you agree with my assessment. Sadly the last big events happened nearly 20 years ago but that is because we like to think we are are at the cutting edge whereas we are nothing of importance.
The Obama administration plans to require banks and corporations that have received two rounds of federal bailouts to submit any major executive pay changes for approval by a new federal official who will monitor compensation, according to two government officials.
Fintag says Karl Marx must be partying like its 1867.
“BETA BLOCKERS” AIM TO REDUCE THE BLOOD PRESSURE OF THOSE FACING HEDGE FUND GATES
Linear regression models (a.k.a. factor models) have a number of emerging applications in the hedge fund industry. One of the most often-cited here and elsewhere is hedge fund replication (see related posts). But as we discovered recently, regression-based models can also be used to estimate the daily returns occurring between monthly hedge fund reporting cycles (see related post). In addition, MIT's Andrew Lo has proposed several other applications of linear factors models to address situations such as transitioning between managers and portfolio rebalancing for risk management purposes (see related post).
Fintag says You mean other Hedgies are still using factor models? Ha ha ha ...
NEW DEBT-FOR-EQUITY DEALS PUT LENDERS IN CHARGE AS COMPANIES STRUGGLE TO MEET REPAYMENTS
The tide has turned. Companies great and small have seen their equity values crash and vanish. Treacherous trading conditions and oppressive debt piles have made it difficult for even the best-performing firms to meet their borrowing commitments.
In the wreckage, ownership is silently slipping away from companies, buy-out groups and shareholders. Instead, those who control the debt, not equity, are moving into the driving seat.
Fintag says This is always the case. The Private Equity model is one where the debt / equity ratio is huge because at the end of the day debt holders always own companies.
UMA THURMAN HELPS HEDGIE BOYFRIEND'S CHARITY TOP TARGET
Still, from inside the now disused Waterloo International train station, one could be forgiven forgetting that times are tough for the global economy, and for hedge funds. Attendees paid £10,000 just to sit down, and spent £5,000 on raffle tickets for a chance to win one of five cars painted by British artist Damien Hirst, he of the £50 million diamond-encrusted platinum human skull of two years ago.
A veritable hedge fund manager's fantasyland was auctioned off, including a hunting party at Mulgrave Castle (£280,000), a drive around a test track (V150,000) and a visit to Team Ferrari's digs at the Monaco Grand Prix (£120,000).
Fintag says So the man with the trousers raised USD25m. That is extremely impressive and shows what a caring group of people we are. Yes, I did attend and would show you some photographs but alas I left my camera on the tube ...
Gordon Brown faces a showdown with his MPs Monday after a humiliating night at the polls, as a slump in Labour support helped allow the far-right British National party win its first European parliament seat.
Early results showed Labour's vote share collapsing to below 20 per cent, pushing the party into fourth place in some regions. In Wales, the Conservatives beat Labour into second place, the first time that had happened in decades.
Fintag says Brown is like the Terminator. Where as Tony Blair was made of Teflon, Brown cannot be killed.
So depart Ken Leet and Jeff Lubin - the two senior-most partners at Cerberus in Europe. Full story over at Financial News.
The gist of things is that Cerberus is scaling back its European operations quite significantly. Lubin was instrumental in establishing the firm's presence in Europe and Leet was later hired just over two years ago to strengthen it.
Fintag says I don't really know Cerberus that well. Apparently the lifts aren't very good.
FINK ASPIRES TO BE NO. 1 FUND MANAGER WITH BARCLAYS UNIT OFFER
BlackRock Inc., the bond boutique co- founded in a one-room office by Laurence Fink in 1988, is a step closer to becoming the world's biggest money manager after emerging as the leading bidder for Barclays Plc's fund unit.
Fink has moved ahead of contenders for Barclays Global Investors including Bank of New York Mellon Corp., three people familiar with the talks said late last week. London-based Barclays, the U.K.'s third-largest bank, is seeking more than $12 billion for BGI, and may keep a 20 percent stake in the unit, one of the people said.
A secretive unit taxpayers and accountants cannot contact is delaying the repayment of thousands of pounds in tax refunds
An office block in Bristol has become the financial equivalent of George Orwell's Room 101. Taxpayers chasing repayment of thousands of pounds they have been overcharged have faced the nightmare of their cases disappearing into the building with no indication of when the money will ever emerge.
Fintag says Typical. The state grabs your taxes at every opportunity but if you have overpaid they struggle to get it back to you ...
Traders are beginning to price in expectations the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this year as the recession shows signs of abating.
Federal-funds futures contracts on the Chicago Board of Trade show a 70 percent probability the central bank will lift its target rate for overnight bank borrowing to at least 0.5 percent by November after a report today showed the U.S. economy shed the fewest jobs in May in eight months. Rate-increase odds were 27 percent yesterday.
Fintag says We like a bit of tightening.
REGULATORS PUSH FOR CHANGE AT TWO TROUBLED BIG BANKS
With a crucial deadline looming in the federal bank bailout program, Washington regulators are pressing some unwelcome prescriptions upon two of the nation's largest lenders. One by one, allies of Kenneth D. Lewis, the embattled leader of Bank of America, are bowing to pressure from the Federal Reserve and leaving the board. The bank named four new directors with financial experience on Friday, a shake-up that could further weaken the hold of Mr. Lewis on the company. More board changes are expected.
Stock hedge funds climbed an average of 7.1 percent in May, their best monthly performance in more than nine years, according to Hedge Fund Research Inc.
Equity funds gained 13 percent this year through May, second only to convertible-bond funds, which jumped 25 percent, according to data compiled by the Chicago-based firm. All hedge funds advanced an average of 5.2 percent in May, boosting returns for the first five months of 2009 to 9.4 percent, the company reported.
Fintag says This is really shocking news. This sort of volatility does us down. We really are nothing but sheep in wolves clothing. In a long market we should be flat and in a down market we should be up. It is a disgrace.
49 comments
Lord Munch, Overlord of Everything said ...
First bee-atches! I will grind Moron to dust
08 Jun 09 - 07:09 gmt
anonymous said ...
If you look closely at that shirt, you can see Finbar reflected in the protective wrapping, thus revealing his identity
08 Jun 09 - 07:11 gmt
anonymous said ...
Lord Taggit: Since the Fed Reserve Chairman is an appointed position by the president, we will see whether Bernanke likes his job or wants out. If he raises rates, he tanks Obama's plans and he's out of a job. If he doesn't raise rates, he might get to keep his job (larry summers waiting in the wings) but if 10 year rates keep rising, B-man is out of a job as BHO needs a fall guy.
Bernanke is toast and rates won't go higher.
08 Jun 09 - 07:18 gmt
anonymous said ...
Britain elected its first extreme-right politician to the European Parliament, with the British National Party winning a seat in northern England's Yorkshire and the Humber district.
The far-right party, which does not accept nonwhites as members, was expected to possibly win further seats.
Yippppeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee or not.
08 Jun 09 - 07:24 gmt
anonymous said ...
"Fringe groups could use the EU parliament as a platform for their extreme views but were not expected to affect the assembly's increasingly influential lawmaking on issues ranging from climate change to cell-phone roaming charges."
Forget the fringies. The EU worries about cell phone roaming charges? No wonder we're in the shitter.
08 Jun 09 - 07:35 gmt
AthenaDelphi said ...
@anon7:11 -If you look closely at that shirt, you can see Finbar reflected in the protective wrapping, thus revealing his identity
Only if you photoshop it, reverse color polarity, increase grey tones you see a reflection and to me it looks amazingly like: Tony Blair.
So either Lord Taggit is really Tony Blair or its true all Englishmen look alike.
08 Jun 09 - 07:39 gmt
AthenaDelphi said ...
Hey MsR - what's being served for tea today? And what, in your opinion, is the best brand of gin there is?
08 Jun 09 - 07:41 gmt
AthenaDelphi said ...
@anon7:18 - yes, Bernanke is appointed, yes Summers is "waiting in the wings", but if the markets don't trust the appointment the Marxist President puts into power, then it won't matter. The dollar becomes worthless as its being monetized.
If only the British Pound could get some backbone we'd see a flight to Sterling.
08 Jun 09 - 07:43 gmt
Moron said ...
Lord Munch.....I will munch u up and spit u out!!!!!!!!!!!!
08 Jun 09 - 08:45 gmt
Jaa said ...
Ladies and gentlemen and moron.. now is the time to sell the shit out of the stock market...have a good day..
08 Jun 09 - 08:53 gmt
Moron said ...
Jaa my love.....I SAID THAT ALREADY......BCOS I AM THE DARK SITH LORD OF THE STOCK MARKET......BEWARE THE BL**DY CRASH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
08 Jun 09 - 08:57 gmt
Moron said ...
I want to see people suffer....divorce and suicide....pain and humiliation....no more smug self assured smiles....I WANT TO SEE SAD FACES EVERYWHERE!!!!
08 Jun 09 - 09:19 gmt
MsR said ...
@Athena I will defer to other readers on matters of gin but a friend of mine swears by Hendricks.
08 Jun 09 - 09:28 gmt
anonymous said ...
_____ is my prediction. v
08 Jun 09 - 10:00 gmt
anonymous said ...
bugger that didn't come out how i wanted it too. meant to be a square root which then flat lines.
08 Jun 09 - 10:01 gmt
Jaa said ...
so, square root of the current spx px... i would agree with that..
08 Jun 09 - 10:07 gmt
Moron said ...
dow 6000 ... next stop!
08 Jun 09 - 10:07 gmt
anonymous said ...
ding ding
08 Jun 09 - 10:10 gmt
Anonymous Bull said ...
@Moron / Jaa - I beg to differ, this market has a long way to go before we can call off this BM rally
08 Jun 09 - 10:14 gmt
Moron said ...
anon bull....i know who u are and I am coming to get u!!!!!!
08 Jun 09 - 10:15 gmt
Anonymous Bull said ...
Good luck Moron...though here is a hint, Old Burlington st or Curzon st...take your pick
08 Jun 09 - 11:45 gmt
anonymous said ...
@Anon Bull, be careful. This self-proclaimed hardnut/lunatic could be standing behind you right now with a bucket and a sponge, cleaning your windows.
08 Jun 09 - 11:53 gmt
anonymous said ...
htt p://www.isgordonbrownstillprimeminister.com/ worth checking every so often!
08 Jun 09 - 11:56 gmt
anonymous said ...
Tanqueray 10 is overrated for a G&T but makes a mean martini. Hendricks and Bombay too peppery / fragrant. Plymouth is my favourite 'everyday' gin. Good all-rounder.
08 Jun 09 - 12:34 gmt
Maria said ...
Some right wing extremists did get into the EU Parliament (at least from my country), but I am just hoping they will not have enough "weight" to influence anything around (in fact, I am almost sure they will not be able to).
If they do, I want to move on the moon, or on Mars, or wherever :)
08 Jun 09 - 14:48 gmt
Moron said ...
Maria is back...the party begins:)))
08 Jun 09 - 14:53 gmt
Maria said ...
studied silence :)
08 Jun 09 - 15:06 gmt
Moron said ...
I'd say u are stunning.....as in u have a stunning intellect:))
08 Jun 09 - 15:07 gmt
Maria said ...
hei moron, you ran out of people to bully so you pick on a girl on a website?
go and bore someone else.
08 Jun 09 - 15:16 gmt
Jaded said ...
Maria are you dutch? Geert Wilders seems to have done pretty well over there
08 Jun 09 - 15:18 gmt
Moron said ...
Maria honey....I will 'bore' you only - but gently so - now go on wikipedia and search for the many meanings of bore....u will learn something new today:))))
08 Jun 09 - 15:18 gmt
Maria said ...
oh i give up
08 Jun 09 - 15:20 gmt
Maria said ...
no, I'm not Dutch, I'm Romanian :)... we have our own morons :)
08 Jun 09 - 15:22 gmt
Moron said ...
Maria....I have big plans for you.....:)))
08 Jun 09 - 15:25 gmt
Maria said ...
no, you don't.
anything else you have and feel the need to share? :)
08 Jun 09 - 15:30 gmt
Miss Anagram said ...
Finbar Taggit is an anagram of "Big At Farting"
08 Jun 09 - 15:31 gmt
Moron said ...
a big heart.....and a big mouth....a big brain.....and big eyes:))))
08 Jun 09 - 15:33 gmt
Maria said ...
ok, I admit: it was funny that you stopped there :)).
even though you also have a sligthly inflated ego :).
sometimes you are so full of hot air that I am surprised you don't start floating over whichever city you are living in; but now I understand that this is because of the big heart :)
08 Jun 09 - 15:36 gmt
Moron said ...
I love you too:)))..... love makes me all soft and cuddly:))
08 Jun 09 - 15:38 gmt
Maria said ...
love gives me nausea :) and I immediately sense danger so stop mentioning the word:)).
08 Jun 09 - 15:42 gmt
Moron said ...
women are all the same....too cynical to love...too scared of getting hurt.....paranoid of rejection.....incredible:)
08 Jun 09 - 15:44 gmt
Maria said ...
ufff...can anyone explain why some comments don't get posted??
08 Jun 09 - 15:56 gmt
Moron said ...
try again...sometimes u have to try and post twice.....
08 Jun 09 - 16:03 gmt
Galway Lad said ...
Sensational Irish victory in the T20 WC...Back to the swamps with you B'desh
08 Jun 09 - 16:26 gmt
anonymous said ...
Maria / Moron porn. Enough to put one off one's lunch
08 Jun 09 - 16:38 gmt
Blue Horseshoe said ...
ADBE, ANF & LVS check them out
08 Jun 09 - 17:39 gmt
llcarlos said ...
The USA is dead in 5 minutes. F 'em.
08 Jun 09 - 20:56 gmt
AthenaDelphi said ...
thank you all for your recommendations as to GIN. I do Appreciate it! :)
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