28JAN09:
Q1-09 DOW: 8900
Q2-09 DOW: 7250
Q3-09 DOW: 5810
Q4-09 DOW: 3960
CITI NATIONALIZED
OBAMA GETS SICK 27AUG09:
Mini Crash 21SEP09 Predicted correctly:
Bailout=Bonuses
Demise of Bear Stearns
Demise of Lehman Bros.
Demise of AIG
Subprime would cause problems
Date of 2007 crash
CRAs were to blame
G20 riots were a party
Northern Rock run
Northern Rock Nationalization
HBOS and RBS demise
UBS really was Useless
"Need we wonder if even for a moment it ever occurred to them that rich people have feelings too?" Tom Wolfe, London Evening Standard (free edition - normally 50p) 11 May 2009.
Novelists are great commentators. They see the world differently and none more so than those who write about finance.
Most people who work in finance are assholes. I am a big one and most of my friends are even bigger. We think we are better than everyone else and it makes sense because we are. But there were times when we were not. We were cuddly. Now if we are told otherwise then we get all defensive and take it out on the nearest half asleep quant.
Bean Counting Yesterday I was outed as a Chartered Accountant. Its a professional qualification that in the UK is seen in a higher light than the MBA which is seen as all trousers and no action. In the City and Wall Street, you need a number of personality traits. Autism is one. Lying is another. Bipolar Disorder comes in handy. A big mouth and a dab hand at knowing where to take clients for a good time is useful. But number 1 is a good track record of academic excellence (or a brilliantly faked resume / cv).
Finance is a closed club and only those with the requisite traits and skills are allowed in. In fact getting in is easier than getting out. It truly is a prison for the insane.
As mentioned yesterday, I am consulting on a new novel about the hedonistic lifestyle us hedgies lead. I may give the impression that most of us are dull geeks who under other circumstances would have been train drivers or in prison, but it is not true. Some of us are very naughty. We have too much money [Editor: You mean did] and enjoying Mick Jagger like debauchery. We transcend soap opera and live a life of unphathomable fantasy.
Our lives, just like our hedge funds, are opaque since the regulators have never wanted to air us in public. Just like a British MP who has for years used his expense account to repair moats, buy bath plugs and pay someone to cut the hedge with scissors without any of us knowing, their world has now changed. So now it is my turn to be outed, not as an Accountant (if only) but as a once perfect specimen of a human being to one of contradiction and irrationality. Spilling the beans seems necessary to put the record straight.
Help needed As a dysfunctional man with ham fisted blackberry thumbs, I have been providing anecdotes to a professional writer who is turning this into a bonfire of liars' poker for the 21st Century. The plan is to write like Charles Dickens who wrote in instalments before sticking them up together at the end and producing a book, film and opera (only kidding). The publishing world is a spent business model and this is a new approach which so far is working. The world of advances and pumping thousands on unknown authors is not appropriate in an age when fearful cost cutting is the new black.
Unlike the markets, which are living on false hopes and expectations. It amazes me how those who are running the show are believing their own hype but as consipracy theorists would point out, the markets have rallied after the G20 because the G20 decided to gag the media.
The fundamentals are shockingly bad. But we don't want to believe them. I am selling in May and going away because history shows the summer is not a good time to be investing. There are many more important things to do like killing ex colleagues and having a good time whilst covered in white powder [Editor: Steady].
President Obama has lately begun pointing to optimistic signs for the economy, but the continuing crisis still bedevils his budget projections and his domestic agenda.
Peter Orszag, the budget director, who appeared with President Obama last week, disclosed the latest revisions in his blog.
The administration, in final budget and tax details released Monday, disclosed a double wallop of bad news from government number-crunchers. First, its Office of Management and Budget reported that the economy had added — both for this year and next — $90 billion to the historically high deficit estimates the administration issued just two months ago.
Fintag says Have you ever seen such denial? Are we really so stupid to think this isn't a serious problem? The numbers say this and our heads say "big debt isn't a problem". I am frightened. Truly.
Under the guise of discussing the woes faced by Playboy. Like we're falling for that one. The spank rag is apparently considering printing fewer issues, and raising its cover price, on account of being faced with the issue of no one paying for porn-- especially when it's not live action-- anymore.
Fintag says See. The old world sense of fun is no longer profitable. I never understood Playboy. People like Tom Wolfe would write for it and on the next page women would be serially exploited. Thankfully for most women the tables are turned and us men are now being exploited for the way we look thanks to David Beckham. In years to come he will be seen as a turning point in the fall of western civilisation.
Not that the sellers and peddlars of six pack remedies are complaining.
BERNANKE SAYS EARLY RESPONSE TO BANK TESTS ENCOURAGING
Government "stress tests" of how 19 major banks would endure a sharp downturn in the economy already appear to be helping banks gain access to private capital, a key element in economic recovery, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said on Monday.
"The initial indications are encouraging," he told a conference organized by the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank.
Fintag says I am crying really hard. It is not a pleasant sight.
David Geffen, the former record executive who made an offer for the LA Times two years ago, now wants to buy the New York Times, say people close to the situation. Geffen, a co-founder of DreamWorks SKG, made an offer in the past two months for the 19.8% stake in the New York Times Company held by Harbinger, the activist US hedge fund controlled by Philip Falcone. His offer was rebuffed, but Geffen remained interested and would be “a patient buyer”, they said.
Jean-Claude Trichet signalled on Monday that the global downturn had bottomed out with some large economies already able to put the recession behind them and look forward to renewed growth.
OECD composite leading indicatorsThe European Central Bank president's comments on Monday in Basel, Switzerland, had added weight because he was speaking on behalf of the world's leading central bankers, not just for the eurozone.
Fintag says OK. I am puttting my neck out. The cliff edge is there. Just in front of you. Rising unemployment, bad debts, deflation, social unrest, zombie companies. Will you be pushed or jump? Or is that a parachute in your bag?
A prominent Manhattan lawyer has pleaded guilty to defrauding hedge funds of more than $400 million.
Fifty-eight-year-old Marc Dreier on Monday pleaded guilty to conspiracy to commit securities and wire fraud, securities fraud, wire fraud and money laundering. The charges carry a potential prison term of 30 years to life in prison.
Fintag says That is a biggy. A man who started life as a respectable lawyer flipped to the dark side...
The prevailing view amongst the commentariat (reflected in the recent deliberations of the G20) that the financial crash of 2008 was caused by market failure is both wrong and dangerous. Government failure had a leading role in creating the conditions that led to the crash.
* Central banks created a monetary bubble that fed an asset price boom and distorted the pricing of risk.
* US government policy encouraged high-risk lending through support for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (which had explicit government targets of providing over 50pc of mortgage finance to poor households) and through the Community Reinvestment Act and related regulations.
* Regulators and central bankers failed to use their considerable powers to stop risks building up in the financial system and an extension of regulation will not make a future crash less likely.
Here's today's riddle: which financial black hole could be transformed into a mountain of gold simply by moving the ownership of the black hole from one part of the public sector to another?
The answer is Royal Mail's pension fund.
Here's the Alice-in-Wonderland financial engineering.Because Royal Mail can't afford to fill the deficit in the fund, the government has proposed to take responsibility for all its liabilities as of 16 December last year (as part of wider plans to rehabilitate Royal Mail that include a highly contentious sale of a stake to the private sector).
Under this pension rescue plan, the government would also inherit Royal Mail's assets.
Fintag says The humble postman will soon be bringing down the UK government. A vote of no confidence and an election in October.
35 comments
blank said ...
it
12 May 09 - 06:59 gmt
Munch said ...
Drive By Shooting!
12 May 09 - 07:21 gmt
kimball said ...
I'm afraid we shall all fall down very soon!
12 May 09 - 08:30 gmt
anonymous said ...
That was very amusing. Finbar is the Elton John of hedge funds
12 May 09 - 08:47 gmt
Top Cat said ...
Still convinced you are qualified as an accountant, even if you are not practising now!
12 May 09 - 10:22 gmt
Moron said ...
its a dog eat dog world...and I am a big hungry dog!!!!
12 May 09 - 11:00 gmt
MsR said ...
Lots of sticks in Mayfair Moron
12 May 09 - 11:09 gmt
anonymous said ...
"anyone can fall in love, that's not hard to do it isn't so clever.
12 May 09 - 11:32 gmt
Anonymous Bull said ...
Moron is a hungry dog losing money on a daily basis...still short moron??
12 May 09 - 11:46 gmt
Moron said ...
still short long only monkey.....down 8% ytd and still short.....thats the way I like it!!!!
12 May 09 - 11:53 gmt
anonymous said ...
Why do you assume Anon Bull is long-only? He may be long-short but just feel the market is going up so is taking a long bias?
12 May 09 - 13:04 gmt
Moron said ...
he said yesterday he takes a v long term view......thats the kind of thing u hear a lot in long only....they are all usually very long term.....30-50 year investment horizons:))))
12 May 09 - 13:08 gmt
anonymous said ...
h ttp://preview.tinyurl.com/qj888b UK unemployment figures to come out early - who got the leak
12 May 09 - 14:15 gmt
Moron said ...
i do not understand why this rally keeps rallying:))))...just walked past the risk guys....i saw fear in their eyes....fear of what I'm about to do to them...this is fun:)))
12 May 09 - 15:58 gmt
toilet said ...
Time to order a curry.Strangely, the establishment I frequent gives you chicken vindaloo regardless of what you order.Ask for allo gobi, get chicken vindaloo. Still for $5 what do you expect.I avoid looking in the kitchen but I havent died yet.
12 May 09 - 16:02 gmt
toilet said ...
Also, to make my curry experience more authentic i am watching the Indian cricket on bloomberg.I'll shutp up now as this is getting a bit 'twitterish' which is crap.
12 May 09 - 16:24 gmt
A Psycho said ...
Moron didn't know they were plants that needed watering by the risk guys
12 May 09 - 16:33 gmt
Moron said ...
they are scared for their children.....and their wives...they need to keep their jobs.....this is going to be so much fun...time to set a cruel example!!!!
12 May 09 - 16:35 gmt
anonymous said ...
Moron - they have fear in their eyes because they are scared you might stop and bore them to death with your drivel, you boring, insignificant tool
12 May 09 - 16:37 gmt
Top Cat said ...
@toilet, for a real Indian experience, you should put a toilet roll in the fridge ready for 'relief' in the morning
12 May 09 - 16:38 gmt
Moron said ...
Grrrr!!!!!!!
12 May 09 - 17:12 gmt
anonymous said ...
Desperately Unfunny Moron strikes again. I can't bring myself to read this blog any more, solely because of Moron's irritating comments!
12 May 09 - 17:40 gmt
Moron said ...
then don't read the comments....just read the blog...simple:)))
12 May 09 - 17:42 gmt
anonymous said ...
Me too - he's an absolute bozo. I'll patiently wait until he gets bored or dies, then I shall return!
12 May 09 - 17:52 gmt
Moron said ...
well...I did tell u when the rally would start....and though I was early in predicting its end.....I am telling u know....close ur eyes blindly and follow me over the precipice as we all go down!!!!!!!!!!!
12 May 09 - 18:03 gmt
anonymous said ...
Don't you get it tw@? Nobody wants to hear your boring comments! Shut up!
12 May 09 - 18:11 gmt
damiendamien said ...
I like his comments although I'm short everything thats not in my fridge or bathroom.
12 May 09 - 18:21 gmt
anonymous said ...
Damiendamien, I think you are in a shrinking minority my pedigree chum. His star is truly waning. What we need is a return to the purity of Finbar Taggit
12 May 09 - 18:42 gmt
Super Mario said ...
Some of moron comments are funny. He creates debate
12 May 09 - 19:50 gmt
Moron said ...
Moron is one of the rare ruthless geniuses of our times......a great eccentric artist like Leonardo Da Vinci.....indeed I am the Da Vinci of the modern age!!!!!!!!!!!
12 May 09 - 20:03 gmt
anonymous said ...
you remind me more of the floortrader of past ages...an extinct species
12 May 09 - 21:25 gmt
Curious Joe said ...
When did this blog change from a hedge fund blog with a smattering of Finbar Taggit's life to one about some clown calling himself Moron? How the mighty have fallen.
12 May 09 - 22:06 gmt
anonymous said ...
thats way too harsh for no reason at all the blog is still what it was and the comments are just ppl fooling around having fun
12 May 09 - 22:55 gmt
Curious Joe's Mum said ...
Curious Joe its way past your bedtime - get back into your nappies now
12 May 09 - 23:07 gmt
howard said ...
Lighten up on the criticism obviously all of you are still interested. u know ur here because of him.