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Fortune Telling
28JAN09:
Q1-09 DOW: 8900
Q2-09 DOW: 7250
Q3-09 DOW: 5810
Q4-09 DOW: 3960
CITI NATIONALIZED
OBAMA GETS SICK
27AUG09:
Mini Crash 21SEP09
Predicted correctly:
Bailout=Bonuses
Demise of Bear Stearns
Demise of Lehman Bros.
Demise of AIG
Subprime would cause problems
Date of 2007 crash
CRAs were to blame
G20 riots were a party
Northern Rock run
Northern Rock Nationalization
HBOS and RBS demise
UBS really was Useless


Paying the bills





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THE FINTAG NEWSLETTER
@ Fri 08 May 2009 : GMT

Lobster MTM

FINTAG COMMENT

Mark to pricey Market data.

I reckon 80% of my exposures are to listed instruments. They are easy to price and easy to buy and sell. The other 20%, and I am not telling you the value because I haven't a clue, is exposure to unlisted, unquoted, OTC, off exchange stuff. I own debts in Lehman so its probably a good 4 years before I get to see value; I own AIG instruments that have spreads as wide as my ego; and bits of Icelandic paper knocked together using tippex and sellotape that I have framed for prosperity. Valuing much of it is not possible or quite frankly warranted. I buy for the long haul and have no interest in valuing something that has no market and I cannot sell anyway.

My investors aren't happy. For many years they turned a blind eye. Now they won't accept my marks anymore and are demanding independent pricing. Problem is the brokers charge a lot of money for prices. If I pay for it, it cuts into my lifestyle. My Administrators won't pay because the license arrangements are onerous and they work to tight margins as it is. They are too scared to assign Bloomberg tickers or Cusips to my listed positions as it is. If you want independence, the investor should pay. But the investor won't pay so why should I? So we end up in stale mate.

You see in boom times, data is free. Or freely stolen. Vendors didn't care. Today it costs an arm and a leg. It really does. And this is causing Regulators a real pain in the art works. Regulators, mifids, compliance jockeys and internal and external auditors want independent mark to marking. But they want it for free as if they were checking prices off google finance. They want to cherry pick instruments but the brokers only offer global non distribution licenses on portfolios of instruments. They cost tens of thousands of dollars.

Mike Bloomberg or Markit didn't get where they are today by giving away data for global consumption. The Regulators want to ensure RBS or Barclays are telling the truth. But they won't pay for the data that is out there. And nor will the banks or hedge funds. The upshot is as usual, data vendors are the winner, and the regulators and investors losers.

So if Obama wants to do something useful, then nationalize the data vendors and create a market data source that we can all use for free.

THE INTERNET'S ROLE IN GAMING THE MARKETS

new york times

Who's the villain here? Is it Mr. Ribotsky's funds? They appear to have followed the rules. Is it the company? It has made the required disclosures, albeit sometimes on a tardy basis. Is it people who promoted the stock? Perhaps, but it is not easy to know exactly who they are. Is it the naked shorts? They have violated S.E.C. rules, but at the same time they have probably saved investors money by keeping the stock from rising to heights even more absurd than the ones it reached.

If the villain is not easy to spot, the victims are. They are the people who will end up owning worthless stock. Don't be surprised if some of them conclude that they were victimized not by the people who promoted a company with nothing to recommend it, but by the naked short-sellers who figured out what was happening and, in effect, siphoned off some profits that would have gone to the promoters.
Fintag says
A good reason why markets are so volatile. Information transparency was always thought to be a great leveller to the efficient market exponents. Alas, it has not done so. RSS feeds and streaming news is also contributing to a market of ups and downs.

We love it.

HEDGE FUND GIANT GOTTEX TAKES STAKE IN SJC CAPITAL

finalternatives

Swiss fund of hedge funds shop Gottex Fund Management has taken a controlling stake in U.S-based firm SJC Capital Partners.

The U.S. asset management firm, which was founded last year by Stephen Czech, specializes in provided secured loans to middle market companies that are unable to obtain loans from traditional sources due to the credit crisis.
Fintag says
Don't forget to pack the toothpaste ...

AIG BLAMES MARKET DISRUPTION FOR LOSS

financial times

American International Group reported a $4.35bn net loss in the first quarter, reflecting continuing markdowns of the value of credit insurance sold by its financial products unit.

The company blamed “restructuring and market disruption charges and accounting charges related to taxes” for its performance. AIG's loss, which amounted to $1.98 a share, follows the $62bn loss it took in the last quarter of 2008, the largest quarterly loss in US corporate history, and a loss of $8.9bn for the year-ago period
Fintag says
Well it is never going to blame itself for its incompetence, is it?

This loss is a tax payer loss so what is the US taxpayer going to do then? Pump in more money or ride out the losses and hope the future gains are really stellar?

bloomberg says " Morgan Stanley to Raise $5 Billion in Stock, Debt "

HEDGE FUNDS RISE 3.8 PERCENT IN APRIL

dealbook

Hedge funds posted gains of 3.8 percent in April as the stock market continued its rally and commodities began rising, according to a preliminary report from Hedge Fund Research.

Year-to-date, hedge funds have gained 4.2%, with the best performance coming from firms that specialize in energy and basic materials. Funds that were short the market were hammered in April, falling 7.5 percent on average.
Fintag says
Warm glow. Pride. Middle finger.

bloomberg says " Income Partners to Reopen Oldest Hedge Fund to Redemptions "

STERLING SPOOKED BY BANK'S SPENDING SPREE

this is money

The pound fell sharply against both dollar and euro this afternoon after the Bank of England said it would pump £50bn more cash into the economy to ease the credit crunch.

The news that the Bank is increasing the funding of its quantitative easing (QE) programme to a total of £125bn saw sterling drop by a cent to $1.508 and nearly two euro cents to €1.12.
Fintag says
As it should be. Looks like Mervyn is really worried about deflation and so I am I. My bet to run naked down Regent Street still stands if the UK suffers deflation.

So a message to Mervyn - please print faster ...

U.S. BANKS RACE TO FILL $74.6 BILLION STRESS TEST HOLE

reuters

U.S. regulators told top banks on Thursday to raise $74.6 billion to build a capital cushion officials hope will restore faith in financial firms and set a course out of the deepest recession in decades.

Within minutes of release of the bank "stress test" results, which showed smaller capital needs than once feared, several of the 10 firms needing capital immediately issued statements detailing how they planned to raise it.
Fintag says
That is a lot of money. Will Obama ask the US taxpayer to fill the gaps I wonder?

The real question is what is the point? These banks are all underwritten by the US government so they might as well not have any capital reserves.

alea says " New York Fed Board Chairman Stephen Friedman Resigns "

BROWN EXPENSES CLAIM REVEALED

financial times

Gordon Brown claimed £6,577 in expenses to pay his brother for a shared cleaner who worked at his London flat, according to details of 13 senior ministers' expenses which emerged on Thursday night.

Mr Brown's spokesman said the claim was above board and that the unusual arrangement - which lasted for 26 months - was set up because it was better for the cleaner's National Insurance to work for one employer.
Fintag says
Imagine a UK Prime Minister trying to avoid tax. I go to prison and he gets to be able to say "sorry" and carry on.

Soon we will have murderers in court saying "I had an off day but don't worry I will pay the funeral bills."

FORTRESS SHEDS OVER $2 BILLION IN FIRST QUARTER

finalternatives

The Fortress Investment Group suffered $2.6 billion in hedge fund redemptions in the first quarter bringing its year-to-date assets under management to $26.5 billion. The alternative investment behemoth also reported a net loss of $287 million for the quarter.

Assets under management for Fortress' hybrid hedge funds stood at $6.5 billion as of the end of March, compared to $8.1 billion during the same period last year. The firm's Drawbridge Global Macro Funds was down to $2.3 billion in the first quarter from $6.1 billion as of the end of December. The fund has gained 5.2% year-to-date. Fortress' $1 billion Commodities Fund experienced little change in its AUM and is down 0.5% YTD.
Fintag says
It loses 10% AUM and loses USD300m. So 1 billion of AUM is worth 100m in income. Wow. 10% return. Not bad at all.

CHRYSLER AND THE NON TARP LENDERS - AND INVESTORS' REPUTATION RISK

castlehall

The judge in the Chrysler bankruptcy case has now forced the hedge funds forming the "Chrysler non TARP lenders" to identify themselves as they pursue their case.

According to Bloomberg, the funds involved (down from 20 late last week) are:

"The Chrysler Non-TARP Lenders are as follows, according to the filing: Schultze Master Fund Ltd. of Purchase, New York; Arrow Distressed Securities Fund at the same Purchase address; Schultze Apex Master Fund, at the same address; Uniondale, New York-based Stairway Capital Management II L.P; Group G Partners LP, based in New York; GGCP Sequoia L.P., at the same New York address; Oppenheimer Senior Floating Rate Fund, in New York; Oppenheimer Master Loan Fund LLC, at the same New York address; and Foxhill Opportunity Master Fund LP, based in Princeton, New Jersey."

Fintag says
I haven't reported this saga because I, frankly, am finding it really dull. Where are the horses and dancing girls?

MAJOR BANKS NEGOTIATE, SPIN, CHAFE AT STRESS-TEST RESULTS

washington post

Some major banks managed to wrest concessions from the government in closed-door negotiations over their "stress tests" that helped them put the best face on their results, financial analysts, industry officials and sources said.

The banks were intent on sending a message that they were strong enough to weather the economic storm and didn't need additional capital infusions from the government that could all but nationalize their franchises.

Citigroup successfully pushed to lower the amount of common equity it needs to raise to $5.5 billion by applying $52.5 billion from capital it has not yet reworked. It also was able to get a credit for the sale of a unit that has not been completed.
Fintag says
Now that isn't a surprise.

Bankers versus Civil Servants.



51 comments
AthenaDelphi said ...
Um, Fin? That picture is really gross. The legs and eyeballs are enough to want to make me hurl the recently swallowed pasta.

Where do you eat? And you should ask for your money back. That dish looks awful in presentation alone: everything is red.

08 May 09 - 07:09 gmt
AthenaDelphi said ...
PS: I hope the desert was better and happier to have been plated to be eaten. I took a look again at your dinner dish and have to ask: was the thing female as its legs look frenchly hairy and unshaved.

08 May 09 - 07:11 gmt
AthenaDelphi said ...
Hey Mr. Taggit, can you go over to Hampshire in July and video tape the wedding that I'm not going to because my name is now on the HomeSecretary's list of unwanted's into England. Its being held at Dogmersfield Park on Chalky Lane. I'd say thank you but you're photographs will be your ultimate payment.

And with that 3rd posting - I'm outta here.

08 May 09 - 07:17 gmt
Aldous the hoax said ...
"So if Obama wants to do something useful, then nationalize the data vendors and create a market data source that we can all use for free."
that's exactly what this administration would love to do. Fix prices at whatever level is required to create wealth effect creation belief.
Wouldn't it be great if asset prices (from houses to equities to whatever) were 50% higher, imagine how rich we would be!
Just fix the prices. But make sure nobody is allowed to sell.

08 May 09 - 08:08 gmt
anonymous said ...
If you look carefully at that fork, you can see Finbar's image reflected in it, revealing his identity


08 May 09 - 09:29 gmt
Dan said ...
As if we needed any more reason to avoid deflation. Viewers will be tormented for life

08 May 09 - 09:43 gmt
Moron said ...
I am bored!!!!!

08 May 09 - 10:39 gmt
anonymous said ...
bored of being wrong probably

08 May 09 - 10:41 gmt
MsR said ...
@moron Can you be bored without so many exclamation marks? They are exhausting and as I have said before, it is a brave writer who uses them.

08 May 09 - 10:48 gmt
Moron said ...
ALLIGATOR!!!!

08 May 09 - 10:49 gmt
Moron said ...
ms R.....I get bored very easily....just perpetually bored of everything:(((

08 May 09 - 10:51 gmt
Confused said ...
@MsR: Re your scotch egg challenge comment yesterday, I heartily agree that the first time one participates in that activity can certainly be classed as a "What have I become?" moment.

08 May 09 - 11:08 gmt
Confused said ...
And I must say I was very pleasantly surprised to find a woman with a taste for one of the few true gentleman's sports. (although your nationality may have something to do with that...)

08 May 09 - 11:11 gmt
MsR said ...
@confused In Australia all girls are given courses in Sports Watching:) Plus we play lots of sport so we're brainwashed.

08 May 09 - 11:18 gmt
MsR said ...
@confused as for the Scotch Egg Challenge, you only have to watch Britains Got Talent to see its provenance.

08 May 09 - 11:23 gmt
anonymous said ...
msR talking to moron again...battered wife syndrome

08 May 09 - 11:57 gmt
Moron said ...
everybody talks to Moron.....I am what everyone wants to be but is scared to admit.....nasty, irreverent and incredibly exciting:)))))

08 May 09 - 12:30 gmt
MsR said ...
@anon.11.57 No,he crossed the line with me with something he said about four weeks ago actually when I think his exuberance got the better of him. I haven't chatted to him since then: this was an impersonal comment about his punctuation. I am the last person to suffer from that syndrome

08 May 09 - 12:56 gmt
Moron said ...
ms R ....u have no idea what crossing the line really is:)))

08 May 09 - 13:05 gmt
anonymous said ...
@Moron. Were you bullied at school for your buck teeth and acne, or did your father cane you publicly for bed-wetting? Or both?

08 May 09 - 13:25 gmt
Moron said ...
i was beaten and left for dead as a child - grew up in a foster home - was always told I would amount to nothing - fell in love and had my heart broken brutally because she left me for someone who had more money - every time I have wanted something it has been taken away from me - so I learnt to fight!!!

08 May 09 - 13:53 gmt
Moron said ...
am scared to laugh....bcos everytime I do something goes wrong....have too many demons....and no friends...welcome to my life:))

08 May 09 - 14:06 gmt
anonymous said ...
Whoever told you that you would amount to nothing had amazing prescience. If only the person who left you for dead had been more thorough

08 May 09 - 14:13 gmt
Anonymous Bull said ...
What we have here is the classic case of the fantasist re-living his dreams through the anonymity of the internet. In reality Moron is prob a window cleaner in mayfair, who watches everyone go about work. Thinking by acting as he does on here, thats what the mayfair office workers must be like with their fancy schmancy monitors.

08 May 09 - 14:16 gmt
Moron said ...
assume what u will mate.....what do I care?

08 May 09 - 14:17 gmt
Moron said ...
as long as u remember that we have already priced in a picture perfect recovery, mid cycle valuations and are abt to fall into the abyss again right here right now......what do i care:)))))

08 May 09 - 14:18 gmt
toilet said ...
Is it only me that finds Graham Onions surname incredibly amusing?Is spending most of my day looking at BATS on bloomberg a sign of a life ended?Also why don't we have more fun names for our cricket teams....we have Durham...India has the Chennai Super Kings and the Rajasthan Royals....errr thats all I have to say.

08 May 09 - 15:06 gmt
Moron said ...
i think i is a donkey:))))........when I get this next leg down right I gonna get the risk management guys fired....what fun....I love getting ppl fired:))))

08 May 09 - 15:19 gmt
MsR said ...
@toilet Well the Guardian likes his name..see the sports section..something about reducing Windies to tears...it's a gift. Isn't there a guy called Mustard too?

08 May 09 - 15:24 gmt
anonymous said ...
Has anyone ever heard of a boutique called Polar Capital?

08 May 09 - 15:27 gmt
Alpha60 said ...
Pretty sure there was a country game (durham) where the scorecard read - Sidebottom caught Mustard, Bowled Onions

08 May 09 - 15:29 gmt
Moron said ...
AAAAAAAAAHHH CHOOOOOOOOOO!!!! I think I have swine flu:)))

08 May 09 - 15:33 gmt
Moron said ...
AAAAAAAAHHHHH!!!!!

08 May 09 - 15:40 gmt
Moron said ...
chooooooooo:))))))

08 May 09 - 15:40 gmt
Maria said ...
because you are a pig and you have flu? :)


(couldn't stop writing this, it is too funny :) )


08 May 09 - 15:40 gmt
Moron said ...
Maria honey...I have to go to a meeting now .... but I will come back in an hour.....and then I shall play with you..... till then.....dream abt the strwas and the spoons:)))

08 May 09 - 15:48 gmt
Maria said ...
i disallow you to call me 'honey'. i would never call you moron or idiot (even though you call that yourself). it is impolite.

have a nice evening, I will leave very soon.

08 May 09 - 15:52 gmt
Moron said ...
fantastic!

08 May 09 - 15:54 gmt
The Tax Inspector (wrong blog) said ...
www.hmrc.gov.uk/employers/ebik/ebik3/relocation-05.htm

Looks to me like these greedy MPs are breaching the HMRC tax rules.

08 May 09 - 16:32 gmt
Thomas the Tank engine said ...
@Maria i'm not a lawyer, but am sure there is some kind of injunction you could take out against moron and his lecherous behaviour

08 May 09 - 16:43 gmt
Moron said ...
I am back....seek....kill....destroy.....hunt!!!!!!

08 May 09 - 17:18 gmt
anonymous said ...
I've heard of Polar - why do you ask?

08 May 09 - 17:40 gmt
anonymous said ...
Are they any good?

08 May 09 - 17:45 gmt
anonymous said ...
I've heard of them as well.....fundamentally flawed franchise.....only 1.4 bill under management....and all the staff and infrastructure in the world.....poor sods...had one fund that actually made money...and the manager of that quit

08 May 09 - 17:50 gmt
anonymous said ...
My fellow anon has given the answer I would have given

08 May 09 - 17:58 gmt
anonymous said ...
U.S. BANKS RACE TO FILL $74.6 BILLION STRESS TEST HOLE
Funny how those that DIDN'T take the tarp money and thus are not under Darth Obama's thumb are the ones that got named as needing more $$.

Wells Fargo? Warren Buffet owns that bank (almost) and WB is a big O supporter, but that doesn't mean much to O, when its control he wants, not just donors.

08 May 09 - 18:08 gmt
anonymous said ...
Fin, if you have any bond positions in US companies, I'd say get out now! Bondholders were screwed to the point of squeeling so the unions could be 2nd in line for payoff, whereas bondholders, usually 1st - became 3rd at 20 cents on the dollar re: Chrysler. Then you've got a judge who was appointed by a liberal oversighting the whole thing - will justice really be served like that lobster you have pictured?

08 May 09 - 18:12 gmt
Global EMU Inc said ...
Moron is like a little child. Perhaps if we all ignore him enough he will go away? Killing or banning him don't seem like options, so perhaps we should all just ignore him

08 May 09 - 19:22 gmt
anonymous said ...
Hi Finbar - have you found out how to stop spammers disrupting out pleasure yet? Please update us all.

08 May 09 - 19:22 gmt
Moron said ...
impossible....nobody ignores the master!!!!!!

08 May 09 - 19:23 gmt
Moron said ...
I hate myself!!!!!

09 May 09 - 21:58 gmt

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