28JAN09:
Q1-09 DOW: 8900
Q2-09 DOW: 7250
Q3-09 DOW: 5810
Q4-09 DOW: 3960
CITI NATIONALIZED
OBAMA GETS SICK 27AUG09:
Mini Crash 21SEP09 Predicted correctly:
Bailout=Bonuses
Demise of Bear Stearns
Demise of Lehman Bros.
Demise of AIG
Subprime would cause problems
Date of 2007 crash
CRAs were to blame
G20 riots were a party
Northern Rock run
Northern Rock Nationalization
HBOS and RBS demise
UBS really was Useless
Credit spreads are tightening. This is good news. Whilst getting leverage or refinancing is still near impossible, it is moving in the right direction and has moved from impossible to not quite impossible. My fear is once credit starts flowing, because its so cheap it could cause a massive imbalance in the markets. Analysts have always been obsessed with interest cover and debt ratios but with no inflation and no interest rates, who cares? You might as well borrow with the intention of not paying it off. Borrow as much as you can. Just like in the dot com days. And the last 4 years.
As we have seen, some big companies are too big to fail. Capitalism embraces failure but we are no longer capitalists. So just like GM et al who levered up and then pleaded help, it looks like behind the scenes they are getting plenty of it. Help that is. They are too iconic to allow to fail.
America without a car industry? Not possible.
Deflation isn't something people are talking about anymore but one thing they are is that we can start to party again.
The old Greenspan put option appears to have been sold to TFG. Or maybe it has expired? Or maybe he actually shorted it? Either way, there is this niggling feeling that we are entering a world of newness as the old crumble.
After the dot com bubble passed, a few regulations were put in place and then we partied again. Despite being hugely transparent, I am starting to feel uncomfortable about telling you what we are up to since to be quite frank we are still panning.
But one thing I can ask is why don't governments impose 100% tax rates on the banks? If they are going to be making profits again after being bailed out by you and me, surely this is the easiest way of recouping some of that debt?
Enough incoherent rambling and onto more important things:
BARCLAYS AND LLOYDS REVEAL STEEP RISE IN BAD DEBTS
Barclays and Lloyds Banking Group both warned today that bad debt write downs are set to soar over 2009, blaming poor economic conditions for the surprise rise in impairment charges.
In a trading statement for the three months to March 31, Barclays said impairment charges had increased by 79 per cent to £2.3 billion. However, it said strong growth from its investment bank, including the newly acquired Lehman Brothers in New York, resulted in a 15 per cent rise in first quarter profits to £1.19 billion, offsetting a 45 per cent fall in income from its retail and commercial lending arms.
Fintag says Good news then. That will push up the stock prices.
Stock Appreciation = f(Honesty, Bad debts, Lack of Capital)
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK EXPECTED TO CUT BENCHMARK INTEREST RATE TO 1% TODAY; TRICHET TO ANNOUNCE POSITION ON NEW POLICY MEASURES
The Governing Council of the European Central Bank is expected to decide at its meeting in Frankfurt today to cut the benchmark interest rate from 1.25% to 1%. ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet will announce the Bank's position on likely new policy measures to deal with the Eurozone recession.
Markets view the expected cut today as the final cut in a cycle where the Governing Council has reduced the benchmark rate from 4.25% last October.
This year the judges awarded the esteemed Outstanding Contribution to the Industry to Stanley Fink, CEO of International Standard Asset Management (ISAM). In an exclusive video interview with Hedge Funds Review, Fink talked about his plans for ISAM as well as offering advice to the industry.
Other award winners included BlackRock's Middle East & North Africa Opportunities Fund for Best Emerging Markets Hedge Fund. Best Multi-Strategy Hedge Fund was won by Brevan Howard Master Fund (Brevan Howard Asset Management). BHAM also won the Best Overall Group.
Fintag says Oops I spilled my Frothy Fairtrade Latte. The Kiss of Death awards (past recipients include Amaranth, Lehman, Peloton and Bear Stearns) and Fink gets an award. The man is a broker, not a Hedgie.
And an OH (Hendon to you an me) gets a kiss on the ass too.
Nice.
GLOBAL CRISIS 'VASTLY WORSE' THAN 1930S, TALEB SAYS
The current global crisis is “vastly worse” than the 1930s because financial systems and economies worldwide have become more interdependent, “Black Swan” author Nassim Nicholas Taleb said.
“This is the most difficult period of humanity that we're going through today because governments have no control,” Taleb, 49, told a conference in Singapore today. “Navigating the world is much harder than in the 1930s.”
Fintag says I had almost forgotten we are in the worst Bear market of all time ...
lewrockwell says " Looking Back on the Greatest Depression "
BANK OF AMERICA, CITIGROUP, GMAC NEED MORE CAPITAL
Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc., Wells Fargo & Co. and GMAC LLC are among the companies judged to need additional capital according to results of regulators' stress tests on the 19 largest U.S. banks.
Bank of America has the biggest shortfall, at $34 billion, according to people familiar with the matter. Citigroup's requirement for deeper reserves to offset potential losses over the coming two years is about $5 billion, people with knowledge of that bank's results said. Wells Fargo requires about $15 billion, while GMAC's need is $11.5 billion, one person said.
Fintag says What is a few billion between taxpayers? Funny how we all immune to the terrible state that these US institutions are in. Its almost as if when there is no news, it must be good news and the stock price goes up.
Volkswagen and Porsche announced plans to merge on Wednesday in a move that would relieve the sports carmaker from its debt burden and bring the 3½-year takeover saga surrounding Europe's largest carmaker to an end.
After a meeting of the Porsche family owners and VW and Porsche executives in Salzburg, the family clan agreed to create an “integrated car-manufacturing group” with 10 marques united under one roof.
The move would in effect set Porsche aside from the nine existing brands of the VW group and bring the sports carmaker's hopes of a domination of Europe's largest carmaker to an end.
Fintag says Oh dear. I look forward to the Porsche GTi.
The trustees of New York City Police Pension Fund (NYCPPF) have voted to suspend the use of placement agents, firms and middlemen in investments with the NYC Pension Funds, NYC comptroller William Thompson has said.
Last week, the New York City Employees' Retirement System (NYCERS) took the same decision, following a specific request by comptroller Thompson in response to investigations on placement agents connected to the NYC retirement plans' investments
Fintag says Is it me, or is this really funny?
THE NEW LOOK FOR HEDGE FUNDS THIS SUMMER: MUTUAL FUNDS
Despite the aversion retail investors have recently had to hedge funds, the hedgification of traditional investments is apparently continuing in some quarters of the money management business.
Back in March, Chip Roame, the founder and CEO of Tiburon Strategic Advisors told the online newsletter Advisor Perspectives that:
“Absolute returns and more broadly non-correlated assets are likely to be a growing part of the investing market. Consumers will seek out advisors and institutions that offer non-correlated assets. These strategies will come back and grow within the 40-Act universe and among traditional hedge fund product structures. Investors have paid such a dear price in the current market, and they want to believe that some smart guy can figure out how to properly diversify and reduce risks.”
Fintag says Gone on. Trawl through my archives and read about my assessment that Hedge Funds would turn into Mutual Funds. FiNTAG: Always one step ahead its a wonder I ever manage to get out of bed in the morning ....
NICOLA HORLICK IN LINE TO COLLECT £7M IF OUSTED IN BRAMDEAN ALTERNATIVES COUP
Vincent Tchenguiz, the property entrepreneur who owns a 28.7pc of the fund, has launched a boardroom coup at Bramdean Alternatives - sparking one of the most colourful City battles this year.
Mr Tchenguiz, who owns his stake through his investment vehicle Elsina, wants to appoint new directors to the board
Fintag says How is it the useless always make so much money?
39 comments
Confused said ...
@Fin: What more important things...?
07 May 09 - 08:59 gmt
Confused said ...
I read this on the BBC website yesterday: From Duncan in Kent, TMS inbox: "Re the chap with the apple stuck in his mouth. I regularly take part in an event called the 'scotch egg challenge'. Quite simply when leaving a supermarket car park you place a recently purchased scotch egg whole into your mouth. You then log the mileage of how far you have driven before you can speak. 4.3 miles is my PB. Its a game that all the family can play."
Brilliant.
07 May 09 - 09:01 gmt
GalwayBoy said ...
I do hope motormouth Horlick gets shafted by Tchenguiz....mwahahahaha
07 May 09 - 09:02 gmt
anonymous said ...
I suppose that jobless hedgies will now play the 'scotch egg challenge' by placing the egg in their mouth before getting to the till. That way not only can you see how far you can get (and save some pences on the egg), but also we may see new records on how many eggs can be stolen!
07 May 09 - 09:19 gmt
anonymous said ...
How is it the useless always make so much money? ... the world is like Monopoly, collect 7M salary as you pass GO <----- EASY
07 May 09 - 09:25 gmt
Cyclops said ...
Stock Prices= f ( reality/10 , (perceptions + delusions)*10)
at least I was delusional enough to do not miss the last bear rally.
07 May 09 - 09:43 gmt
anonymous said ...
oh dear fin belatedly embraces this rally....time to sell?
07 May 09 - 09:47 gmt
MsR said ...
@confused See I read that and I can't think of any other country in the world where sticking a scotch egg in your mouth whilst driving, could be thought of as 'family fun' nor even worth sharing with a news service.
07 May 09 - 09:47 gmt
damiendamien said ...
The best of crazed BBC viewers is collected at .... h_tp://ifyoulikeitsomuchwhydontyougolivethere.com/category/retired-colonels/
07 May 09 - 12:01 gmt
anonymous said ...
fkn feedburner down again - cant get RSS.
Drop em like hot shyte, I say.
07 May 09 - 12:29 gmt
Tradebot said ...
oh the Superwoman Horlick is right... you can have it all!
07 May 09 - 14:50 gmt
Maria said ...
I had to google scotch eggs :), therefore today is not wasted as I have learnt something...
07 May 09 - 15:36 gmt
Moron said ...
hey Maria....ever tried a scotch egg milkshake:))))
07 May 09 - 15:37 gmt
Morons apprentice said ...
@Maria now you know what they are would they be something you might like to suck on while you drive then?
07 May 09 - 15:40 gmt
Moron said ...
Moron's apprentice....wtf.....the master does not appreciate imitators!!!!! btw....this bullsh*t rally is over!!!!
07 May 09 - 15:45 gmt
anonymous said ...
If only Bramdean's share price bore some correlation to her dress size. She must be at least an 18 at the moment
07 May 09 - 15:58 gmt
Maria said ...
haha...well, the combination of boiled egg and sausage meat deep fried doesn't sound appealing for my health in general. in believe my grandma's cuisine has enough liver killing dishes as it is, I don't need to bother with UK ones on top of that:)...
and, yes, i get the innuendos as well :), but sometimes they're not funny ...
07 May 09 - 16:15 gmt
Moron said ...
Maria......do u still like large strwas with ur milkshakes:)))
07 May 09 - 16:20 gmt
Maria said ...
that one I didn't get :)...u mean the spoon straws :)?
07 May 09 - 16:27 gmt
Maria said ...
Before I leave (in 3 min, because 5.30 is the new 3 a.m.), I need to say what was my favourite comment of the day (sorry Mr Taggit, it is again written by a reader :) ):
"Stock Prices= f ( reality/10 , (perceptions + delusions)*10)"
that, in my book, is a strike of genious! :)
07 May 09 - 16:29 gmt
Moron said ...
Maria....didn't know u were a fan of spoons.....I like spoons but wish there was more leverage...u know:)))
07 May 09 - 16:36 gmt
Morons apprentice said ...
And theres me thinking that my comment was your favorite...
@Moron you are the dark sith lord and i am your trainee..lol
07 May 09 - 16:38 gmt
Moron said ...
I like flattery....I like people bowing bfore the master!!!!
07 May 09 - 16:51 gmt
Anonymous Bull said ...
Are moron and his apprentice one and the same. Moron has mentioned before he is clinically insane
07 May 09 - 17:11 gmt
Moron said ...
anon bull.....i will chew u up and spit u out....long only monkey!!!!
07 May 09 - 17:39 gmt
anonymous said ...
@Anon Bull - probably. Who else would want to be an apprentice of a widely condemned Muppet
07 May 09 - 17:44 gmt
Maria said ...
leverage and short only, isn't that living on the edge, spoon or no spoon:)?
ok, break over, back to work :).
07 May 09 - 17:54 gmt
Moron said ...
Maria.....u have no idea what living on the edge feels like honey:)))
07 May 09 - 18:07 gmt
Maria said ...
oh?...
:)
07 May 09 - 18:24 gmt
Moron said ...
but if u like .... i can show u the edge .... with or without the spoon:))))
07 May 09 - 18:29 gmt
Maria said ...
i shouldn't have asked and I knew it :).
I haven't asked the Gods for the edges, my friend. Enjoy! :) I am not the one to judge one's choices:)
07 May 09 - 18:34 gmt
Moron said ...
all or nothing honey....i don't do the friend bullsh*t:)))
07 May 09 - 18:40 gmt
Maria said ...
luckily nobody* reading this blog has to worry about this :)
*disclaimer: if somebody you actually know reads this, then nobody=most of the bored employees :)
07 May 09 - 18:49 gmt
anonymous said ...
Does anyone know a reliable hitman I can pay to shoot Moron? I would pay up to £20k
07 May 09 - 18:51 gmt
Moron said ...
u pay chicken shit to shoot the master!!!!!!!!..............even ur hitman would run scared when he sees me:)))
07 May 09 - 18:55 gmt
anonymous said ...
Fintag's blog entries were lite and less filling today. Isn't the fun there anymore?
07 May 09 - 19:20 gmt
Moron said ...
I am mad!!!!!!!
07 May 09 - 20:57 gmt
Moron said ...
SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY!!!!!!!!!!!
07 May 09 - 22:22 gmt
llcarlos said ...
Like Maria, I also had to look up scotch egg. Looks delicious. It' s probably better than an egg McMuffin.
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