28JAN09:
Q1-09 DOW: 8900
Q2-09 DOW: 7250
Q3-09 DOW: 5810
Q4-09 DOW: 3960
CITI NATIONALIZED
OBAMA GETS SICK 27AUG09:
Mini Crash 21SEP09 Predicted correctly:
Bailout=Bonuses
Demise of Bear Stearns
Demise of Lehman Bros.
Demise of AIG
Subprime would cause problems
Date of 2007 crash
CRAs were to blame
G20 riots were a party
Northern Rock run
Northern Rock Nationalization
HBOS and RBS demise
UBS really was Useless
Yesterday was a day of two halves. I attended a charity event in Paternoster Square, next to St Pauls and Goldman Sachs. It was warm, the people funny and it was for a good cause. People danced and the sun shone. Laughter was heard and lunchtime employees ate their home made sandwiches staring at their colleagues wearing oversized pants. It was in the name of a cancer charity - Orchid.
The next half was horrific. The UK's Chancellor set about shoring up the Icelandic like finances of a country with severe problems. Last time the IMF bailed out the UK when its debt was 6% of GDP. Today it is 12% and while the IMF has better things to do, other plans have been hatched instead. Like borrowing from an international community that may just say no.
The UK budget left a bitter taste. Income Taxes up, no public sector cuts and public borrowing like you have never seen before. Depressed or what? Is it a dream or am I in a coma?
I chatted to someone in the know. And there are rumors Bob Diamond is to leave BarCap and head up Goldman. I just made that up but it seems plausible. I don't know what is real anymore.
Alistair Darling's 2009 Budget has been derided as a stew of unrealistic forecasts and missed opportunities, after the Chancellor conceded the current slump is comparable with the Great Depression but insisted it would be over by Christmas.
In what economists described as a "fantasy Budget", Mr Darling imposed swingeing new taxes on those who earn more than £150,000, which will raise as much as £5.5bn a year by 2012 - one of the biggest per-capita tax increases in recent history.
But while he will try to trim some departmental budgets, he will nevertheless increase the total amount the Government will spend this year and the next by £37.6bn. This indicates that if he does intend to balance the nation's books, he will do so not with spending cuts but with tax rises.
Fintag says If I have falling income, I tend to cut back. This makes sense. Borrowing is what got us into this mess.
Anyway, I look forward to the next Gilt auction to see what the take up is while I work out which country I shall leave for. However, not all is lost for a general election will be called next year and this new era of socialism can be killed off again.
telegraph says " A savage and pointless attack on Middle England "
guardian says " Alistair Darling's great financial squeeze on the rich "
The message it sends to potential investors. By ramping up taxes on the rich, this Government is saying it plans to punish success, and discourage high earners. We're in a deep recession, Darling admits that, and the best way to get us out of it is to get as much FDI flowing into the country as possible. All this sky-high tax rate will do is convince multinational companies that locating in Britain is a mistake. The Chancellor spoke today about doing the right thing for business, about rebuilding the financial services industry and taking real steps towards getting Britain back on the right financial track. Turns out, this was all just rhetoric, his announcement today will produce quite the opposite result on every account.
Fintag says Remember the Laffer curve: Higher taxes means less revenues:
Historically hedge funds out of ignorance, or simply because they could not perceive any benefit, have largely ignored Global Investment Performance Standards (GIPS), ethical standards for investment performance presentation to ensure fair representation and full disclosure of an investment company's performance history.
The standards were born out of the frustration of pension fund trustee's inability to differentiate between good and bad asset managers in the mid 1980s. Without standards it appeared that all managers were above average performers.
The parade of Wall Street banks posting better-than-expected earnings was brought to an abrupt halt yesterday by Morgan Stanley, which swung to a loss during the first three months of this year.
Much of the miss was the result of a perverse accounting rule covering the value of its own debt, but the bank also posted another $1bn (£691m) hit to the value of its portfolio of commercial real estate investments.
Fintag says So what is going wrong at Stanley? Of course it has one of the world's largest real estate portfolios. I wonder how many people Mack shouted at yesterday.
The Morningstar 1000 Hedge Fund Index rose 2.1% in March (0.1% YTD), while the currency-hedged Morningstar MSCI Asset-Weighted Hedge Fund Composite Index increased 0.1% (0.5%) as hedge funds took modest advantage of March's upswings in the global equity and credit markets.
Equity markets around the world significantly rebounded in March as appetite for risk returned, especially in emerging markets. Positive lending and manufacturing news in China coupled with higher commodity prices, which helped stocks in other emerging economies such as Russia, drove the Morningstar MSCI Emerging Markets and Morningstar Emerging Markets Hedge Fund Indexes to increase 4.2% and 6.2%, respectively.
Fintag says Well I hope so. We just had a Bear Rally ...
On Wednesday, for example, the cost of protecting five-year gilts was 95 basis points - meaning it costs £95,000 a year to insure £10m of bonds - up from 18 basis points last summer (albeit down from a peak earlier this year).
But if that is embarrassing enough, the cost of insuring the chocolate giant Cadbury was on Wednesday far lower, around 50bp. A company that peddles chocolate coins, in other words, is currently deemed a better credit bet than the British Treasury itself.
So, for that matter, are tobacco giant British American Tobacco, services provider Compass, consumer goods group Unilever, energy group Centrica and Pearson, owner of the Financial Times.
Fintag says Fags, chocolate and washing powder are a safer bet than my gilts. Good luck to the Treasury - I expect the yields to be quite healthy and even more so if the UK's Credit Rating is slashed.
GEITHNER SAYS CRISIS UNPRECEDENTED IN MODERN TIMES
Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said Wednesday the United States bears a substantial share of responsibility for a global economic crisis that could cost the world up to $4 trillion in lost output this year alone.
While the crisis started in the U.S., Geithner said its damage has spread widely with serious challenges facing much of the globe.
"Never before in modern times has so much of the world been simultaneously hit by a confluence of economic and financial turmoil such as we are now living through," Geithner said in remarks to the Economic Club of Washington.
Fintag says CYA
FREDDIE MAC CFO IN APPARENT SUICIDE: POLICE SOURCE
The finance chief of troubled U.S. mortgage giant Freddie Mac, David Kellermann, was found dead on Wednesday after apparently committing suicide, a police source said.
Kellermann, promoted to acting chief financial officer last September after the government took control of the company, was found hanging in the basement of his home in an affluent Washington suburb at around 5 a.m. (0900 GMT).
Fintag says Don't tell me Freddie and Fannie were ponzi schemes? Awful news of course.
Say tuned. William A. Ackman, the outspoken hedge fund manager, says he has a “plan to save the universe,” or at least the financial universe.
Mr. Ackman, who turns 43 this month, has been meeting with Lawrence H. Summers, President Obama's chief economic adviser, to pitch his proposal for solving the nation's financial crisis, according to an article in the latest issue of Condé Nast Portfolio.
Fintag says Nice.
29 comments
Spoiler said ...
First, Very Very First. Not Almost Nearly. But First.
23 Apr 09 - 08:00 gmt
anonymous said ...
Juvenile
23 Apr 09 - 08:12 gmt
Moron said ...
LAST LAST LAST LAST LAST!!!!!
23 Apr 09 - 08:46 gmt
Moron said ...
ckkkkkkkkk
23 Apr 09 - 09:01 gmt
LostInIndia said ...
In our darkest hour, Ackman comes to our salvation.
One hedge fund to rule them all!
23 Apr 09 - 10:07 gmt
anonymous said ...
Maybe Moron is Ackman... ackackackackackackackackackackack
23 Apr 09 - 11:35 gmt
Moron said ...
ckkkkkkkkkk!!!!!!!
23 Apr 09 - 11:39 gmt
anonymous said ...
Moron, have you got any friends? I would say doubtful. Anyone with a repertoire of annoying repetitive phrases like you is the person normally bullied at school
23 Apr 09 - 11:56 gmt
Moron said ...
nope ... no friends...no body likes me
23 Apr 09 - 12:02 gmt
Mr R said ...
i think moron is really cool!
23 Apr 09 - 12:11 gmt
MsR said ...
That was not me..you need a better vocab if you're going to imitate me. I don't use exclamation marks either: as far as I know only Tom Wolfe can get away with them.
23 Apr 09 - 13:38 gmt
anonymous said ...
moron burning on his bonfire of inanity
23 Apr 09 - 13:50 gmt
MsR said ...
And Mr R doesn't write. He does numbers only.
23 Apr 09 - 13:51 gmt
damiendamien said ...
Ballard dies and Wolfe lives. No justice.
23 Apr 09 - 14:05 gmt
MsR said ...
@damiendamien Well Ballard had a good innings. BTW after your E Financial debut, how is your bid for stardom going DD?
23 Apr 09 - 14:10 gmt
Moron said ...
ckkkkkkkkk:))))
23 Apr 09 - 14:13 gmt
Jaa said ...
"Taxing your way out of debt is like standing in a bucket and trying to lift yourself up by the handle".
Winston Spencer Churchill
23 Apr 09 - 14:35 gmt
NonDominic said ...
You know what is funny. The funny thing is that people consider someone making 150k pounds per year to be "rich". Maybe instead of raising the tax rate they should start taxing the real rich and how about the corporates as well? Sorry for any offense to any nondoms reading this comment.
23 Apr 09 - 14:53 gmt
Moron said ...
150k pounds a year is monkey rich....a bit like strategy consultant rich or long only fund manager monkey rich.....bet u though ..... u will find a lot of monkeys who 'think' they are rich on 150-250k pounds a year.....ckkkkk:))
23 Apr 09 - 14:58 gmt
NonDominic said ...
Oh, also my apologies to Arsenal fans. Under my plan, footballers, especially good ones, would remain tax-exempt.
Moron, I like that a lot: "monkey rich", I'm going to start using that. Tax the monkey rich! Oh wait, they are already heavily taxed! Thats ok, they can still afford the best bananas and extra virgin olive oils.
23 Apr 09 - 15:03 gmt
NonDominic said ...
Oh, also my apologies to Arsenal fans. Under my plan, footballers, especially good ones, would remain tax-exempt.
Moron, I like that a lot: "monkey rich", I'm going to start using that. Tax the monkey rich! Oh wait, they are already heavily taxed! Thats ok, they can still afford the best bananas and extra virgin olive oils.
23 Apr 09 - 15:03 gmt
Moron said ...
the monkey rich are the bunches of idiots u find employed in many corporations.....they are not the idiots who pretend to be content on 40-70k a year......they are even worse.....they earn 150-250k a year....in some cases maybe even 400-500k.....classify their jobs as gold jobs....and tell their long suffering frustrated wives how well they have done in life........monkeys!!!!!!!!!!
23 Apr 09 - 15:08 gmt
Moron said ...
i once had a boss like that......made me swear i wud rather starve and beg on the streets than ever work with such fools again!!!
23 Apr 09 - 15:11 gmt
Jaa said ...
Anon bull is one...
23 Apr 09 - 15:22 gmt
anonymous said ...
moron you've said quite a few times that you work with fools!
23 Apr 09 - 15:45 gmt
Moron said ...
hmmmm...i thot i said i work with nasty ppl....not fools.....ckkkk!!
23 Apr 09 - 16:22 gmt
Panta said ...
@Moron...I d rather be a monkey rich, than a poor monkey....like me :)
23 Apr 09 - 16:55 gmt
anonymous said ...
Moron....everything you say just builds up evidence proving what a total a$$hole you are.
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