28JAN09:
Q1-09 DOW: 8900
Q2-09 DOW: 7250
Q3-09 DOW: 5810
Q4-09 DOW: 3960
CITI NATIONALIZED
OBAMA GETS SICK 27AUG09:
Mini Crash 21SEP09 Predicted correctly:
Bailout=Bonuses
Demise of Bear Stearns
Demise of Lehman Bros.
Demise of AIG
Subprime would cause problems
Date of 2007 crash
CRAs were to blame
G20 riots were a party
Northern Rock run
Northern Rock Nationalization
HBOS and RBS demise
UBS really was Useless
I watched the Citi stock price fall 5% then recover 10% and so rise 15% in a few hours before going somewhere else. For an old blue chip to have that sort of emerging market mining volatility is madness. Rumors were it was running out of capital. Again. Then TFG said the banks had lots of capital and it was all right again.
As I said yesterday, don't you get it? The G20 are manipulating the media. Good stories good, bad stories bad. I mean who looks at fundamentals anymore?
Citi is in a real mess. It is bankrupt. Look at its financial statements. Its assets are not fairly valued but then who wants another Lehman? They are too big to fail which is why we all love trading C.
If it were possible, I would love to launch a hedge fund called the "enhanced levered C fund". It would only trade Citi stock and bonds. It would be risky but the potential huge. It would be long one day and short the next. I could hedge it with Citi single stock futures contracts. Some days it would sit on cash held at Citi bank accounts. Citi could be the prime broker and Custodian too.
Who needs to worry about naked shorts - with Citi you would have to worry about naked longs too.
Talking about being Naked Anyway, back to that old chestnut - deflation. I felt deflated that the UK's inflation rate is now negative, as reported yesterday for the first time since the birth of Rock 'n' Roll, and this would result in me running naked down Regent's Street as previously stated. Luckily, it wasn't the inflation indicator I am following so it will give me a few months grace. The body waxing can wait and Greta my PT can be paid for a few more sessions.
Come on Merv. Print those pound notes. Faster, please.
Book. Yesterday I launched a book of pictures -FINTAG'S STREETS. Not being able to write properly, as I spent more time fagging at Eton College than I did learning, I have to leave writing books with words to the experts. So that is what I have done.
Today the Times (of London) has written a piece about a project I am involved in where my lurid life as a Hedgie comes to the big screen via a novel. More to follow in the coming days...
DARLING PLANS RECORD U.K. DEFICIT, LIMITING ROOM FOR STIMULUS
Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling today will deliver a U.K. budget with what may be the biggest deficit on record, limiting his ability to counter the worst recession since World War II.
The shortfall this year may jump to 160 billion pounds ($232 billion), or 11 percent of gross domestic product, according to a survey of 24 economists conducted by the Treasury. Darling, who estimated an 8 percent gap in November, will announce his figures to Parliament at 12:30 p.m. in London.
Fintag says I can feel pain coming later today. Real pain.
Apparently Canada is the new safe haven. Here is why:
independent says " Budget 2009: Third of business leaders can see green shoots "
MPs will receive about £150 a day on top of their salaries for attending the Commons in an emergency package of anti-sleaze reforms to be rushed through Parliament.
Gordon Brown was facing opposition from MPs in all parties over his surprise announcement.
Fintag says I might do the same thing for my employees.
ALTIS PARTNERS OFFERS MANAGED ACCOUNTS IN GLOBAL COMMODITY PORTFOLIO
Managed futures adviser Altis Partners (Jersey) is to offer managed accounts in its Global Commodity Portfolio for a limited period until 30 June 2009.
The Global Commodity Portfolio has been available via a Jersey-domiciled fund vehicle since April 2006. It has delivered net annualised returns of +16.5 per cent since inception, and +44.3 per cent in 2008.
Fintag says I see managed accounts are the new saviour of the Hedge Fund world. Here is a paper I found looking at the costs of running a platform:
A sustained price above $70 is needed to cover investments in Canada's tar sands, the deep-water fields off Brazil, and Russia's "High North" above the Arctic Circle.
Much the same goes for biofuels from grains (sugar is cheaper). They matter. Bioethanol swings the global crude price. It accounted for 60pc of extra oil supply worldwide from 2007-2008.
Court documents of the New York University's lawsuit against financier Ezra Merkin have revealed a testimony from Victor Teicher, The New York Times reports. The convicted offender, who served as an adviser and fund manager, stated at a deposition that he warned Merkin about Madoff's consistent returns.
NYU is suing Merkin and his firm, Gabriel Capital for placing $24 million of the school's endowment money in the hands of Bernard Madoff and violating his fiduciary duty to investors by hiding the Madoff investment from them.
Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said the “vast majority” of U.S. banks have more capital than needed, stoking a rally in stocks as investors await results of stress tests on the balance sheets of the biggest lenders.
“Currently, the vast majority of banks have more capital than they need to be considered well capitalized by their regulators,” Geithner said in testimony to a congressional oversight panel on the government's financial-rescue program. He added that there will be a “series of options” for lenders deemed to need additional money at the conclusion of the tests.
One shareholder was applauded when he paraphrased Winston Churchill to describe the Citigroup board when he said that never before have so few done so much damage to millions of shareholders. But, despite the anger, all the proposed directors were elected after four-and-a-half hours at the bank's annual meeting yesterday.
Fintag says Pandit the Bandit is made of Teflon. He would give Tony Blair a good run for this money.
Amid a deepening recession and credit crisis, investors have gotten used to companies' earnings going from bad to worse. Now, based on the first of a wave of first-quarter results, earnings might be going from worse back to just bad.
But that's small comfort. While the first two weeks of the current earnings season, which kicked off with Alcoa's (AA) release on Apr. 7, do not confirm the pessimists' worst fears, the tidings are still pretty grim. Based on analyst predictions and the first 58 companies to report in the first quarter, Standard & Poor's estimates that the 500 in the broad S&P 500 should see operating earnings drop 26% from a year ago.
Fintag says So it is time to stop and wait and see what happens next quarter. I am not so sure but I would love to be proven wrong.
MORGAN STANLEY P.E. ARM RAISES $1.14B FUND OF FUNDS
Morgan Stanley Alternative Investment Partners has raised $1.14 billion in commitments for Morgan Stanley Private Markets Fund IV, a private equity fund of funds.
MSAIP Fund IV incorporates three main strategies: buyouts, primarily in North America and Western Europe, global venture capital and special situations. AIP's investment strategy emphasizes less efficient market segments and targets managers with differentiated skill sets in the U.S., Western Europe and emerging private-equity markets.
Fintag says Have I been asleep? Something like a recovery seems in the air. It was only yesterday that I said the Private Equity model was dead. Seems like it has come to life. Hail the Lord!
ny post says " PRIVATE EQUITY INVESTMENTS A TIME BOMB "
Alistair Darling will be forced to issue more than £200bn worth of government bonds this financial year - well above market expectations - as he concedes in Wednesday's Budget that the public finances have plunged deeply into the red.
With public borrowing set to soar to £170bn-£180bn, the chancellor will have to tap the market for an issuance of gilts that will be well over £50bn higher than the Debt Management Office estimated last month.
Fintag says And who is going to buy them? The last Gilt auctions were not very successful. I will stick to gold.
CREDIT SWAP DEALERS SHRINK MARKET BY 38%, ISDA SAYS
Credit-default swap dealers slashed their market by 38 percent last year as regulators pushed them to reduce risk, according to the International Swaps and Derivatives Association.
The notional value of credit-default swaps outstanding plunged to $38.6 trillion as of Dec. 31 from $54.6 trillion mid- year and $62.2 trillion at the end of 2007, the New York-based ISDA said in a survey published in Beijing today.
“In the current environment, firms are intensely focused on shrinking their balance sheets and allocating capital most productively,” said ISDA Chief Executive Robert Pickel, whose group represents dealers that control trading.
Fintag says Maybe it is because there are less traders than there were.
Managers of some of the world's top hedge funds say they are benefiting from sharply reduced competition from the once-mighty proprietary trading desks of the same investment banks they used for financing - which earlier in the decade were taking similar trading positions as their hedge fund clients. Daniel Och, founder of publicly traded Och-Ziff Capital Management, told the FT that Och Ziff is now seeing less competition for investments, making it easier to capitalise on opportunities.
From here on out you'll have to figure out what is and isn't considered inappropriate touching on your own.* Apparently Thursday will be the last day at the House of Mack for at least a handful of employees in the homosapien resources department (particularly those focusing on recruiting).
Fintag says Tranche 14?
TEN BIG US COMPANIES SHELTERED $58 BILLION IN EARNINGS OVERSEAS IN 2008; IRISH OFFICIAL TO BEGIN WORKING WITH US TAX LOBBYISTS NEXT WEEK
The Wall Street Journal reports today that just ten of the largest US companies sheltered nearly $58 billion in earnings overseas during 2008, representing about $20 billion in potential tax revenue. Total US corporate tax receipts last year were around $304 billion. The Irish Government has announced that an official from IDA Ireland, will begin working with US tax lobbyists next week.
The Journal says the Obama administration's nascent proposals to tax offshore profits may have a sizable impact on the likes Pfizer, Cisco Systems, Coca-Cola and Hewlett-Packard, which shelter tens of billions in income offshore annually.
Fintag says If only it that were that simple. Still, I am sure Obama's huge team (where are they? So many vacancies and so many dirty people) of Treasury folk will be coming up with good ideas to resolve.
23 comments
spoiler said ...
Sixth
22 Apr 09 - 07:27 gmt
spoiler said ...
seventh too
22 Apr 09 - 08:20 gmt
damiendamien said ...
damn
22 Apr 09 - 08:33 gmt
Moron said ...
FIRST FIRST FIRST FIRST FIRST!!!!!
22 Apr 09 - 08:39 gmt
auckland said ...
Per last story, some significant US companies are moving to Switzerland. When will the Obama - Swiss showdown occur? Lots of tax dollars leaving US--print the shortfall while you can? Pincer movement coming.
22 Apr 09 - 09:23 gmt
anonymous said ...
St Pauls, mid day there will be naked bankers working out.
22 Apr 09 - 09:25 gmt
anonymous said ...
managed accounts: lower fees, higher costs, much harder to manage and clients can leave when they want. So they are great. Managed accounts are just the latest marketsing story from funds of funds trying to justify their reasonfor being....
22 Apr 09 - 09:28 gmt
anonymous said ...
I already saw the naked bankers on Moorgate at 9:30....nothing special about them (I expected lots of £££ bills hanging out their strings).
22 Apr 09 - 10:35 gmt
anonymous said ...
Any women?
22 Apr 09 - 11:40 gmt
Moron said ...
i love naked women:))))
22 Apr 09 - 11:41 gmt
Tradebot said ...
he he he.... Britain is closed for business boys!
22 Apr 09 - 13:05 gmt
Tradebot said ...
back to the 70s. 83% tax rate, tax 'em until their pips squack
22 Apr 09 - 13:20 gmt
Top Cat said ...
Can you believe that clown Darling has introduced a 50% rate? Bye bye just about every good worker we have.
22 Apr 09 - 14:25 gmt
anonymous said ...
yes it would be much better to tax those with a high marginal propensity to consume...typicaly kneejerk responses from economically illiterate fools on this board
22 Apr 09 - 14:29 gmt
anonymous said ...
Popularist nonsense. Done solely to appease the people who want to hang anyone who works in a bank
22 Apr 09 - 14:33 gmt
toilet said ...
there was also a 15 % surcharge on unearned income back then if my fast fading memory serves so top rate was 98% ......nice touch
22 Apr 09 - 14:40 gmt
Moron said ...
well......I bank offshore.....there are always perfectly legal ways around every system.....just be smart abt it.....ckkkkk!!!!!
22 Apr 09 - 14:41 gmt
toilet said ...
FYI moron the co-op savings bank branch on Neasden high st is not considered offshore......
22 Apr 09 - 14:47 gmt
Moron said ...
hint: check out what the combination of non dom and Channel Islands can do for you....perfectly legally........ckkkkkkkk!!!:)
22 Apr 09 - 14:48 gmt
Moron said ...
Only the cockroaches survive:)))
22 Apr 09 - 14:53 gmt
anonymous said ...
new 09 highs on S&P straight ahead
22 Apr 09 - 16:02 gmt
catsick said ...
time to update your how crap is london cartoon for the new nicer higher tax rates ...
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