28JAN09:
Q1-09 DOW: 8900
Q2-09 DOW: 7250
Q3-09 DOW: 5810
Q4-09 DOW: 3960
CITI NATIONALIZED
OBAMA GETS SICK 27AUG09:
Mini Crash 21SEP09 Predicted correctly:
Bailout=Bonuses
Demise of Bear Stearns
Demise of Lehman Bros.
Demise of AIG
Subprime would cause problems
Date of 2007 crash
CRAs were to blame
G20 riots were a party
Northern Rock run
Northern Rock Nationalization
HBOS and RBS demise
UBS really was Useless
Everyday the markets move up and down and then stop somewhere near where they were at the start of the day. And everyday there has to be a reason for the moves. Sometimes the news is a reason and sometimes it is nothing but noise as portfolios are rebalanced and market makers tweak spreads for the fun of it.
Despite the media being bullish, and some would say its the G20 pressing the media to report only happy news stories, the markets went down a bit yesterday. There were many reasons and many of these reasons were very dull.
Financial profit taking perhaps? Concerns over Japan? Obama's dog soiling the whitehouse furniture? Instead of guessing why, here is some commentary. It is a bit like reading the weather forecast.
Well the shops have an Easter Egg mountain, Darling is saying one thing while his boss says another, and Glaxo is looking to buy anti wrinkle creams. Iran starts a nuclear war of words and I am having to wear a t-shirt in the gym that says I am employed. Despite my prediction Oracle and Google would merge, Oracle buys up Open Office and so now making it Closed-Like-Microsofts-Office.
Today I launch a new book. It is a book without words and has lots of pictures taken over the last 2 years. They are some of my favorites. I decided to have no commentary because although each one tells a story and has profound meaning I want the viewer to work this out for them self. If you cannot read and like to see Japanese ladies hailing cabs on 5th Avenue, the book is for you:
More details to follow on the second and more important book later (once the full PR machine has kicked in early next week ...).
Death I am sad to report a death. Following a very illuminating (and I paid) lunch with a well known Private Equity guru, he told me the news I had been expecting. The Private Equity model is dead. Big dead. And permanent too. Apparently it no longer works and may never work. Given the huge sums of money taken out by the Pirates, it is funny that the Bankers have taken the blame. Some of these Pirates took out hundreds of millions and nobody knew anything about it. Shocking.
So here is a glass to those who work in the industry tied to their carry and bored shitless.
Reporting from Washington and Los Angeles -- In the first major disclosure of corruption in the $750-billion financial bailout program, federal investigators said Monday they have opened 20 criminal probes into possible securities fraud, tax violations, insider trading and other crimes.
The cases represent only the first wave of investigations, and the total fraud could ultimately reach into the tens of billions of dollars, according to Neil Barofsky, the special inspector general overseeing the bailout program.
Fintag says Well it had to happen. When the Government is handing out cash, it makes sense to take it if your bank is on the edge of a precipice. Given the people handing out the money have no idea where it is going, the waste and abuse must be horrendous. Does anyone know what Goldman and JP Morgan did with their handouts?
financial news says " Mayo warns bank trading results are unsustainable "
Editor's Note: Here's another great piece from Reggie Middleton. I've reprinted a the opening to this one, but you can get the entire piece with his graphs and charts from the link at the end.
Who Is the Newest Riskiest Bank on the Street? Posted by: Reggie Middleton Apr 20, 2009
Early in 2008 I named Morgan Stanley the "The Riskiest Bank on the Street" (see historical links at the bottom of this article). Well, now its time to update my opinion. Who deserves the title "The Riskiest Bank on the Street" now? Well, let's see what the market says...
Fintag says A controversial website with unfortunately really dull news.
Private equity investor, First Reserve has closed its new buy-out fund at $9 billion, The Financial Times reports. The fund was undersubscribed, falling short of its $12 billion target.
California State Teachers' Retirement System invested $800 million in the fund, Washington State Investment Board $400 million and California Public Employees' Retirement System invested $300 million. The fund will invest in oil reserves, making energy equipment, and uranium reserves.
Fintag says As I was saying about the death of Private Equity ...oops
GOLD: TRADERS REMAIN BULLISH AS HEDGE FUND MANAGERS BUY GOLD FUTURES
Gold is expected to climb this week on speculation the decline in prices may boost demand from jewellers and other buyers of the physical metal. Fourteen of 34, or 41 percent, of traders, investors and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News said gold would advance this week. Eleven of them forecast lower prices and nine were neutral.
Hedge-fund managers and other large speculators increased their net-long position in New York gold futures by 2 percent in the week ended April 14, according to US Commodity Futures Trading Commission data. Speculative long positions, or bets prices will rise, outnumbered short positions by 129,895 contracts on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Fintag says Here comes the bubble.
IS BARACK BARKING UP THE WRONG TREE? - - PAT MCARDLE, ULSTER BANK
Greenshoots of recovery were aired last week by the US President and head of the Federal Reserve and the new first dog, Bo, also got an outing. Is his master barking up the wrong tree?
It is unusual for President Barack Obama and Federal Reserve chairman Bernanke to simultaneously sing the same tune, indeed, one could be forgiven for thinking that there was more than a coincidence about it.
Fintag says Before our eyes, Obama is turning into Oprah. He smiles, listens and cares. But whereas Oprah can stop there, Obama has to follow through and do something. And what is he doing apart from smoking and playing with his dog all the time?
Hedge fund assets under management will hit a nadir of $1 trillion (686 billion pounds) by the end of the second quarter before rebounding to $2.6 trillion by 2013, an industry report predicted Monday.
An industry study by Bank of New York Mellon and Boston-based research firm Casey Quirk also estimated that 60 percent of new funds over the next four years will go to funds of hedge funds, investment products designed to spread risk and diversify exposure.
Fintag says I know I did this one yesterday but its a nice bottom.
Hedge fund assets could rise to $2.6 trillion by 2013 after bottoming out at roughly $1 trillion in 2009. Capital appreciation and $800 billion in net inflows over the next four years will push global levels to nearly triple the 2009 figure, according to a study* of institutional investors, investment consultants and hedge funds.
The report by Bank of New York Mellon and Casey, Quirk & Associates, forecasts pensions will be the greatest source of net flows between 2010-13 with net flows after 2010 to be strongest from high net worth individuals. Pensions are forecast to put $252 billion into hedge funds with family offices at $95 billion and wealth advisors at $58 billion, said the report.
Fintag says See. The nice bottom is to turn into a huge one.
The European Commission's plans to regulate hedge funds and private equity for the first time threaten to become a central issue in the European parliamentary election campaign.
Some key parliamentarians criticised draft proposals on Monday as being “almost worthless”. In a letter to José Manuel Barroso, the Commission president, leaders of the Socialist group, the second-largest bloc in the parliament, said the proposal was so “filled with loopholes” that it would be “highly ineffective” in regulatory terms.
Fintag says Ha ha ha! Useless politicians haven't a clue ....
STOCK MARKET BULLS HAVE GOT IT WRONG, WARNS NOURIEL ROUBINI
Nouriel Roubini, the so-called "arch bear" economist who predicted the current financial crisis in 2006, added further gloom yesterday after he wrote off recent rises in global stock markets as no more than a dead cat bounce.
While an increasing number of analysts have in recent weeks urged investors to go back into equities, Mr Roubini, a professor at New York University's Stern School of Business who has emerged as one of the most respected economic voices in the wake of the credit crunch, warned yesterday that he didn't yet see a buying opportunity.
He holds little faith in the recent market rallies, which prompted some to suggest a recovery was underway. "I'm still cautious and bearish," he said. "I believe we are closer to a bottom in the stock market than a year ago, but this is a bear market rally."
Fintag says Mmmm. I wonder if Roubini is building a nice long portfolio somewhere. Once he starts saying the bottom is here, the markets will rally. Why? Because they are bored of hearing the same old same.
290,000 JOBS LIKELY TO GO IN LONDON BEFORE END OF 2011
According to a new report published by Greater London Authority Economics, London's Gross Value Added growth rate should fall 2.7% in 2009, and will probably stay negative in 2010, before rising 1.7% in 2011.
The report says that London's 'exposure to financial services poses risk for the London economy should the downturn in this sector prove prolonged, which appears possible'. The capital is therefore likely to see contractions in employment in 2009, 2010 and 2011, with up to 290,000 jobs being lost through 2011.
Fintag says I am going to have a word with the owners of my Gym. They need to restrict members to those in employment only ...I cannot stand being around unemployed bankers. [Editor: You are no Oprah]
President Obama's top economic advisers have determined that they can shore up the nation's banking system without having to ask Congress for more money any time soon, according to administration officials.
In a significant shift, White House and Treasury Department officials now say they can stretch what is left of the $700 billion financial bailout fund further than they had expected a few months ago, simply by converting the government's existing loans to the nation's 19 biggest banks into common stock.
Fintag says So the US government has gone from being a Private Equity fund to a Hedge Fund. Nice.
34 comments
Moron said ...
FIRST FIRST FIRST FIRST FIRST!!!!!
21 Apr 09 - 08:45 gmt
fitzcaraldo said ...
I knew Moron was still alive - where are the other commentators - unemployed, dead?
21 Apr 09 - 08:51 gmt
Moron said ...
Moron is like a cockroach.....always crawls out when least expected:)))
21 Apr 09 - 09:01 gmt
MsR said ...
I tried to kill a cockroach once when I lived in Sydney. I sprayed it with furniture polish then tried to hammer it. Finally I set it on fire. Didn't die. Are you like that Moron?
21 Apr 09 - 09:17 gmt
Top Cat said ...
Moron - do you run around like crazy in your office and scare the ladies?
21 Apr 09 - 09:29 gmt
Moron said ...
yup yup and yup:)))
21 Apr 09 - 09:32 gmt
Moron said ...
always remember a rule in life...only the cockroaches survive (apologies Mr Andy Grove)
21 Apr 09 - 09:34 gmt
Munch the Greatest said ...
A Moron is just another breed of cockroach
21 Apr 09 - 09:57 gmt
anonymous said ...
only the cockroaches survive - loving that quote Mr Moron.
21 Apr 09 - 10:52 gmt
Moron said ...
thank you....I am a creative cockroach:)))
21 Apr 09 - 10:57 gmt
Anonymous Bull said ...
Nah your just a plain cockroach
21 Apr 09 - 12:54 gmt
damiendamien said ...
h_tp://ow.ly/2l46 In Iceland, free gym for the unemployed
21 Apr 09 - 13:42 gmt
Moron said ...
ckkkkkkkkk!!!!!!!!!!!........(the sound that cockroaches make:))))
21 Apr 09 - 14:03 gmt
Boston said ...
If private equity is really dead, then why am I reading hedge fund strategy stuff?
Are we hoping to return to 2004 maybe? 1994 maybe? 1984?
Safety and liquidity, then return. Bonds, treasuries, TIPS, munis. All good.
21 Apr 09 - 14:20 gmt
anonymous said ...
does dresdner actually provide prime bro now days!?
21 Apr 09 - 15:12 gmt
anonymous said ...
Right chaps and chapets, how bullish are we in Argentina at the moment>??>?
21 Apr 09 - 15:25 gmt
Moron said ...
ckkkkkkkkkk!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
21 Apr 09 - 15:42 gmt
Cyclops said ...
When our master Fintag is going to run down Regent street naked?
"Britain falls into deflation for first time since 1960", Telegraph
21 Apr 09 - 16:07 gmt
Jaa said ...
BRMNAWORDNOOIG =
I AM GORDON BROWN =
MAD ON BORROWING
21 Apr 09 - 16:47 gmt
Tradebot said ...
deflation bs... anyway, as Gordo the Great says RPIX is no good, you got to use CPIX. That is still well positive and ABOVE BoE inflation target. Happy hiking , Merv!
21 Apr 09 - 17:21 gmt
Anonymous Bull said ...
SPX bounces off 830...Seriously i should be charging for my technical advice!!
@Moron/Jaa - still gunning the SPX down to 780??
21 Apr 09 - 17:37 gmt
Alpha60 said ...
@anon 15.25 - Forget Argentina. I'm bullish about Brazil.
21 Apr 09 - 17:39 gmt
Moron said ...
ckkkkkkkkkk!!!!
21 Apr 09 - 17:42 gmt
Moron said ...
I have three basic rules of trading 1. Always respect the primary trend 2. Be very wary of countertrend moves 3. Shag all the secretaries in the office:))))
21 Apr 09 - 18:00 gmt
anonymous said ...
Archi and Mehitabel rule OK
21 Apr 09 - 18:02 gmt
Maria said ...
@ Moron:
and (apparently) 4. comment on Fintag.com all day long :)
21 Apr 09 - 18:32 gmt
Moron said ...
hey Maria....u any good with bananas:)))
21 Apr 09 - 19:09 gmt
Maria said ...
haven't we been here before? :)
-banana milkshake maybe...
do the secretaries get all these culinary ideas in ur head? :)
21 Apr 09 - 19:23 gmt
Moron said ...
we havent been here bfore...we only been cucumbers and carrots.....thank god...at least u dont chop bananas:))))!!
21 Apr 09 - 19:26 gmt
Anonymous Bull said ...
@Moron i don't often agree with you, but yeah rule no. 3 is a good one
21 Apr 09 - 19:27 gmt
Maria said ...
I'm probably out of my chopping mood :)...
21 Apr 09 - 20:24 gmt
Jaa said ...
haha..go on the donkey..
21 Apr 09 - 20:30 gmt
Moron said ...
So Maria do u like straws with ur banana milkshakes - i think girls look cool with milkshakes and large straws:))))))
21 Apr 09 - 21:14 gmt
Maria said ...
So Moron is there anything u think that u haven't shared with fintag.com readers? :)
facebook
free daily e-mail
feed
