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Fortune Telling
28JAN09:
Q1-09 DOW: 8900
Q2-09 DOW: 7250
Q3-09 DOW: 5810
Q4-09 DOW: 3960
CITI NATIONALIZED
OBAMA GETS SICK
27AUG09:
Mini Crash 21SEP09
Predicted correctly:
Bailout=Bonuses
Demise of Bear Stearns
Demise of Lehman Bros.
Demise of AIG
Subprime would cause problems
Date of 2007 crash
CRAs were to blame
G20 riots were a party
Northern Rock run
Northern Rock Nationalization
HBOS and RBS demise
UBS really was Useless


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THE FINTAG NEWSLETTER
@ Wed 08 April 2009 : GMT

FINTAG COMMENT

Advertising.

Well here is an interesting one. Someone I know runs one of the world's largest display companies (you know, road sign adverts, sides of buildings etc). He was telling me business was booming. Why? Well its cheap and cheerful and penetration is higher than TV where its hit and miss. Not that I know much about advertising but since its the root of capitalism I am surprised Obama hasn't legislated against it, the way he has Wall Street.

Most blog sites are run on founders equity. A few placed ads bring in some extra working capital but it doesn't raise much. Google ads are quite good but the model is changing for we all want clutter free facebook type sites where content excels and anything as ostentatious as advertising is kept well away.

Yesterday I put up a donation button. I had decided the ads got in the way and wanted a new source of income to help pay for my gym membership. It is important I am kept toned and fit for the purposes of providing you all with a better blogging experience. Little did I know the money would pour in. Literally. It's my own little ponzi scheme (except its onshore and I will have to pay tax - but hey ho I am not a real person so I guess my Editor will have to pay instead).

So thank you to those who donated. You kindly helped pay for a couple of Personal Training sessions with Greta. She will be delighted and so will I ...

But enough of my ego. As a hedgie, my ego has been brought down to size. It has been a bell curve of a ride.

10 years ago people thought I worked in a garden center. 5 years ago they thought I was a cowboy. 2 years ago I was a stud muffin master of the galaxy. Today I am a has been, a nobody, a pizza delivery boy, a performance fee parasite, an opaque leach who does things to small defenceless puppies. Of course I could retire [Editor: Not sure what your first wife would say to that] but I have too much energy and would only come to harm. I much prefer trying to work out today's real issues and proving everyone wrong. Here are my current perplexions:

Inflation versus Deflation

Bear Rally versus Start of Rally

Bartering versus Shop lifting (shop, not shirt)

Quantitative Easing versus Laxative Easing

Structured Products versus Waste Products

Cloning versus Replication

That sort of thing.

Greg Newton
Why did I start fintag? It was after following Greg Newton's Naked Shorts analysis of the Refco debacle. He inspired me to also challenge the media's interpretation of events. Greg preempted the current crisis and the plusfunds / refco fraud which he analyzed so well, was the start of a serious decline in the American dream - greed, incompetence and corruption. He inspired me to do a British version of his blog but with the less detail and humor. In fact it turned out nothing like but we did share the odd viral. My Globeop / Global Cockup got me lots of hits and Greg often linked to me. We communicated regularly and had a good laugh although I was unable to meet him in person. I skyped him under the name chris_the_dog. He thought that was funny.

Greg died on 1st April (sic) and my respects go out to his friends and family. Strange, but I thought bloggers were invincible. It appears not.

portfolio says " The Great Greg Newton "

News
Anyone who says they have raised assets for any new funds in the past 6 months is a liar. The hedge fund industry is contracting fast but yesterday a subscription arrived. I couldn't believe it. Attached to the back of it (like Madoff we only accept faxes) was a redemption for a much larger amount. Delta hedging gone wrong meez thinks. Having already told investors I will rebate all my fees back, living on thin air is not fun. But then I guess a lot of you are already doing that. Nice.

ECONOMIST NOURIEL ROUBINI LASHES OUT AT CNBC HOST

washington post

CNBC's Jim Cramer has another feud on his hands.

Just weeks after "The Daily Show" host Jon Stewart took Cramer to task for trying to turn finance reporting into a "game," famous bear economist Nouriel Roubini criticized Cramer on Tuesday for predicting bull markets.

"Cramer is a buffoon," said Roubini, a New York University economics professor often called Dr. Doom. "He was one of those who called six times in a row for this bear market rally to be a bull market rally and he got it wrong. And after all this mess and Jon Stewart he should just shut up because he has no shame."
Fintag says
Cramer versus Roubini. Two bears, one physically and one mentally, having a fight.

MARKET BEAR ROUBINI STICKS TO DOUR FORECASTS

reuters

There's still bad news ahead for the U.S. economy and the bear market for stocks is not over yet, according to a prominent economist who foretold much of the current turmoil.

Nouriel Roubini, a professor at New York University's Stern School of Business and chairman of economic research firm RGE Monitor, said on Tuesday that he expected more dour macroeconomic data and problems in the banking and housing sectors, as well as pressures on consumers.
Fintag says
So when does he think the bottom will arise? He can't be a bear all his career can he? Or can he ....?

P.RN HEDGE FUND FOUNDER REFUTES FRAUD CLAIMS

finalternatives

Is last year's most provocative hedge fund launch just another fraud?

Sources close to AdultVest Inc., which manages the Priapus Investment Fund, an adult entertainment hedge and private equity fund, say that it is spending investor money on more than just investments, and that what investments there are don't account for the returns it claims. A former investor says that founder Francis Koenig is looting the fund to pay for fine art, expensive wines, cars, personal trips and alimony. Meanwhile, a former employee tells FINalternatives “there was no capital being generated” during his time at the firm.
Fintag says
Not another ponzi scheme surely? Where did it all go? Not on wine, women and song surely ....?

HUTCHISON RAISES $1.5 BILLION IN GLOBAL BOND DEAL

finance asia

Hutchison Whampoa, the conglomerate headed by Kong Kong tycoon Li Ka-shing, priced a $1.5 billion 10-year global bond early Tuesday morning local time. It was only the second global bond issue by an Asian corporate so far this year, after Korean steel maker Posco raised $700 million two weeks ago.

The bonds pay a coupon of 7.625% and were reoffered at 99.676 for a yield of 7.672%. They mature on April 9, 2019.
Fintag says
Look at those yields. No wonder it was popular.

ART PRICES FALL 35% AS COLLECTORS CASH IN

financial times

Art prices plunged during the first quarter of the year as cash-strapped collectors looked to unload works by postwar masters that had earlier boomed in price along with the stock market.

The Mei Moses index, set for release on Tuesday, shows art prices fell 35 per cent in the first quarter, having held up during earlier months of the financial crisis.
Fintag says
I tried to hand some Damien Hirsts to my local thrift shop but they turned them down.



MANHATTAN OFFICE RENTS FALL MOST IN QUARTER CENTURY

bloomberg

Manhattan office rents fell the most in at least 25 years in the first quarter as financial companies slashed jobs and relinquished space in the U.S. recession.

Rents dropped 6 percent from the fourth quarter to $65.01 a square foot, commercial property broker Cushman & Wakefield Inc. said in a report today. The decline is the most in records dating back to 1984, Cushman said, and shows how much the fallout from the September bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. hurt the New York property market.
Fintag says
Supply > demand. Obvious really.

HEDGE FUNDS GAINED 1.8% OVER ALL IN MARCH

dealbook

Hedge funds rose an average of 1.8 percent in March, the first overall monthly increase this year, leading to a gain of 0.52 percent in the first quarter, Hedge Fund Research reported Tuesday.

In contrast, the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index rose 8.54 percent last month, but it still lost 11.67 percent in the first quarter.
Fintag says
Music to my donations. So why are my investors still redeeming?

DEFAULT COUNT RISES TO HIGHEST SINCE GREAT DEPRESSION

bloomberg

Thirty-five companies defaulted in March, the highest number in a single month since the Great Depression, according to Moody's Investors Service.

The rate at which speculative-grade corporate borrowers worldwide failed to meet their obligations rose to 7 percent from 4.1 percent at the end of last year, Moody's said in a report today. So far this year, 79 companies rated by Moody's have defaulted, the New York-based ratings firm said.
Fintag says
And the bulls think we have bottomed?

ATTITUDE SHIFT SEEN IN RISK MANAGEMENT

hedge funds review

Risk management and portfolio construction are set to undergo major change as hedge funds get to grip with a post-financial crisis world.

Hedge fund investors have learnt the hard way that diversification across asset classes and strategies does not necessarily protect against losses in extreme market conditions.

This realisation is leading to a fundamental shift in attitudes towards risk management and portfolio construction techniques in the investor community, according to Olivier Le Marois, chairman and senior business consultant at Paris-based Riskdata.
Fintag says
Diversification. Beta correlation was so rife in the last 10 years, it amazes me why anyone bothered with risk management. But then what do I know. I still don't understand what these two over used words actually mean.

CHIEF OF GOLDMAN PROPOSES REVAMPING PAY ON WALL ST.

new york times

The chief executive of Goldman Sachs, Lloyd C. Blankfein, says Wall Street compensation needs to be overhauled. On Tuesday, he suggested some guidelines, including having an individual's performance evaluated over time.

He also called for hedge funds to be subjected to government oversight to reduce the kind of excessive risk-taking that stoked the global financial crisis.
Fintag says
Typical. He raped his shareholders in the good times and tries to deflect his anger in the bad times to us hedgies. Given Goldman Sachs is a hedge fund, well was, he is a compete hypocritical lying banker. But then he is Goldman. What would you expect?

RBS TO CULL 9,000 STAFF AS IT HANDS OUT OPTIONS TO DIRECTORS

independent

Royal Bank of Scotland is to axe a further 9,000 employees as part of its desperate £2.5bn cost-cutting drive, just a day after it announced lucrative share option packages for directors at the group.
Fintag says
More headlines. If you read the small print, they are not firing anywhere near that many people.

GEORGE SOROS WARNS JUMP IN STOCK MARKETS SINCE MARCH IS A 'BEAR-MARKET RALLY'

telegraph

“It's a bear-market rally because we have not yet turned the economy around,” Mr Soros said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “This is not a financial crisis like all the other financial crises that we have experienced in our lifetime.”

Stock markets around the world have gained in recent weeks on hopes renewed efforts to fix the banking crisis and a stabilisation in economic data signal the sharp deterioration since the collapse of Lehman Brothers may have eased.
Fintag says
I wonder how his commodities portfolio is doing?


48 comments
Moron said ...
the idiot is back....will talk more irritating rubbish today...:)))

08 Apr 09 - 09:10 gmt
fitzcaraldo said ...
first at 10:10 (CET): shocking!

08 Apr 09 - 09:12 gmt
fitzcaraldo said ...
sorry, Moron was first...

08 Apr 09 - 09:12 gmt
Moron said ...
Yeah,.....basically realized that if I dont come in and talk rubbish then nobody comments and it all gets very boring.....so here goes more rubbish.....Obama is an idiot.....he shud be with his wife tending to the vegetable garden in the white house....what is he doing in Iraq....why can't George Soros be President instead???????

08 Apr 09 - 09:16 gmt
anonymous said ...
do we think we are brighter than politicians? Absolutely!

08 Apr 09 - 09:25 gmt
Moron said ...
grrrr:))))

08 Apr 09 - 09:39 gmt
MsR said ...
Moron what do your team think you are doing while you talk to us about gardening? Important analysis?

08 Apr 09 - 09:40 gmt
Moron said ...
ms R.....my team is scared of me.....I learnt a long time back in life that if u want something in life....don't ask...just snatch it.....fear is a very powerful weapon.....only wimps and idiots are nice!!

08 Apr 09 - 09:42 gmt
Moron said ...
and they are nice....not bcos they want to be nice....but bcos they don't have the courage to speak up....which imho is hypocrisy.....brutal focus on the other hand is a quality that u have to respect....that is why I think women are superior creatures....bcos they feel more and it makes them tough......i hate the head in the sand brigade!!!

08 Apr 09 - 09:49 gmt
MsR said ...
@Moron quite right too. You should beat them.
Well observed about women. Courage is not something many people have; I learned that in my corporate days and see it every day.

08 Apr 09 - 09:54 gmt
MsR said ...
@Moron quite right too. You should beat them.
Well observed about women. Courage is not something many people have; I learned that in my corporate days and see it every day.

08 Apr 09 - 09:54 gmt
Moron said ...
there is an old saying......a vicious rival will do u more good than an idiotic friend....bcos the vicious rival keeps u on ur toes and forces u to get better every day.....smug and insensitive is what I can't stand....thats why I got so annoyed at that pizza delivery video.....u have to feed ur family.....go and do it....don't take the laziest way around and then sit and whine....idiot!!!!

08 Apr 09 - 09:57 gmt
anonymous said ...
shut up moron, this aggressive stance is pathetic

08 Apr 09 - 09:58 gmt
MsR said ...
@anon 9.58 as annoying as it sounds I think what Moron is trying to say about organisational behaviour is that he'd rather have a team of people who are capable of feeling and have self-awareness as they are tougher.

08 Apr 09 - 10:01 gmt
MsR said ...
Which makes me wonder, I know there are fewer women in your biz but any women in your team Moron...other than cute dollies?

08 Apr 09 - 10:04 gmt
Moron said ...
yes anon 9:58...i am sure it is pathetic...just as i am sure life is all black and white,.....and the world is fair....blah blah blah....wake up alice....u aint in wonderland anymore!!

08 Apr 09 - 10:05 gmt
Moron said ...
no women Ms R.....they will always have a compassionate streak no matter how tough they get....I look for ruthless hungry men....they make the best producers....which is what makes u think now...all those mavericks who have been displaced at the banks...what are they gonna do next.....find them and back them....there will be some new empires created out of this mess!!!

08 Apr 09 - 10:07 gmt
anonymous said ...
I'm sure you are a relatively good chap but please can you stop acting like an adolescent prick. that is all i'm going to say and i suggest radio silence

08 Apr 09 - 10:11 gmt
Moron said ...
:))))).....just like to stir things up a bit

08 Apr 09 - 10:12 gmt
anonymous said ...
what are all the extra ))))'s, do you have a double chin?

08 Apr 09 - 11:06 gmt
Tradebot said ...
Rally Rally Rally!!

08 Apr 09 - 11:36 gmt
Moron said ...
dribble dribble dribble!!!

08 Apr 09 - 11:53 gmt
Anonymous Bull said ...
SPX close below 800 could see a futher move down to 760-770 region. Thats the time to start buying again

08 Apr 09 - 12:12 gmt
anonymous said ...
i think this is a great market..wait till another dip to 700 and go 100% invested..+ buy some otm long dated calls and go for a 2 year vacation.


08 Apr 09 - 13:03 gmt
anonymous said ...
bad luck morom market is bouncing off 800/806

08 Apr 09 - 13:45 gmt
Moron said ...
moron is very bearish.....moron do not trust this rally one bit

08 Apr 09 - 13:50 gmt
Moron said ...
GRRRRR!!!!

08 Apr 09 - 13:54 gmt
Maria said ...
so women in the kitchen and men in the financial world :) cute...i don't relate:)

08 Apr 09 - 14:50 gmt
Anonymous Bull said ...
Is Maria another disguise for Moron...he has said many times he is clinically insane...

08 Apr 09 - 15:33 gmt
Moron said ...
anon bull.......remember what i said...don't fall out of a tree and taunt the lion:))))

08 Apr 09 - 15:35 gmt
Maria said ...
I can chop things...:) but I'm not a really good cook for the rest.



Maria is not Moron. However you cannot verify this statement:).

08 Apr 09 - 15:37 gmt
Dan said ...
Completely off base, FT. Hansen raised 750MM on a new fund. Of course it was down from the 2BB he expected, but it was all blue chip money.

08 Apr 09 - 15:41 gmt
Anonymous Bull said ...
hmm im getting more and more suspicious about this Maria/Moron dichotomy.

@Maria if im wrong i apologise to associate u with moron...lol

08 Apr 09 - 15:44 gmt
Moron said ...
Maria...are u good with carrots???:)))

08 Apr 09 - 15:45 gmt
Maria said ...
@anon bull: apologize accepted


@ Moron:chop them and boil them in the soup :)

08 Apr 09 - 15:51 gmt
Moron said ...
:)))

08 Apr 09 - 15:53 gmt
anonymous said ...
I wonder if moron is a computer programed by finbars geek to add liquidity, as it constantly repeats - but like many scifi robots its gone mad, maybe we're looking at the first stages of artificial life...

08 Apr 09 - 16:12 gmt
anonymous said ...
moron is a prat you can't fake that level of inanity

08 Apr 09 - 16:20 gmt
David S. Products said ...
RIP Greg Newton. Still in shock. Does anyone know about memorial services? He was a giant and was ahead of the market in rooting out evildoers and at the same time making it entertaining and funny.

08 Apr 09 - 16:29 gmt
anonymous said ...
finbar, haven't seen many scoops recently!? whats going on?

08 Apr 09 - 16:40 gmt
anonymous said ...
where is stephen jen going on the buyside

08 Apr 09 - 16:48 gmt
anonymous said ...
if finbar is still receivig net redemptions then he has more pressing matters than finding scoops to post here. Well-performing funds stopped getting redemptions in Feb and got good inflows starting March from investors afraid of missing this rally.

08 Apr 09 - 16:50 gmt
anonymous said ...
Fin,

I'll open he bidding at 50p for the pair of preserved cows.... go a chip I hear.

08 Apr 09 - 17:06 gmt
anonymous said ...
Fin,

I'll open he bidding at 50p for the pair of preserved cows.... got a few chips, I hear.

08 Apr 09 - 17:06 gmt
Moron said ...
grrr:)))

08 Apr 09 - 17:33 gmt
anonymous said ...
Moron is a serious contender in the most irritating imbecilic chump ever to have graced this Earth. About on a par with Little and Large or Ronnie Corbett. In fact, perhaps he is Ronnie.....

08 Apr 09 - 19:46 gmt
Moron said ...
GRRRRRR:))))

08 Apr 09 - 21:29 gmt
WellWisher said ...
How can I donate in USD instead of GBP? I do not want to pay service charges on my credit card for doing international transactions.

09 Apr 09 - 01:42 gmt

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