28JAN09:
Q1-09 DOW: 8900
Q2-09 DOW: 7250
Q3-09 DOW: 5810
Q4-09 DOW: 3960
CITI NATIONALIZED
OBAMA GETS SICK 27AUG09:
Mini Crash 21SEP09 Predicted correctly:
Bailout=Bonuses
Demise of Bear Stearns
Demise of Lehman Bros.
Demise of AIG
Subprime would cause problems
Date of 2007 crash
CRAs were to blame
G20 riots were a party
Northern Rock run
Northern Rock Nationalization
HBOS and RBS demise
UBS really was Useless
So the bear rally is over. Apparently. My trip to Hong Kong was abandoned because British Airways had not upgraded their First Class cabins as advertised and tried to give me an Anya Hindmarch bag as compensation. So I stayed at home and watched the pundits on Bloomberg and CNBC spouting the usual waffle. My late afternoon tea at Sketch was with a former (and they are all former these days) colleague who worked at one of the well known Consultants that rhymes with masturbat.on [Editor: uh? Are you following the "here in the city" site and putting periods all ove. t.e pl.c.e?]. He told me the new news for the asset management world is to get out of cash and into assets with a positive return. Wow I thought, that is revolutionary. And on top of this, investors want thousands of reports everyday. They want reports that are verbose, in pdf and are at least 1GB in size. Everyday. Twice a day would be even better.
So the rally is over. Or is it just starting? Apart from day traders, who really cares? The bottom will be here when it comes and when it does it won't be obvious. But I cannot see the bottom just yet. There is too much debt, consumption has collapsed and the people want a few more years living in tents and picking out food from their teeth with sticks.
Talking of sticks, I have decided to solicit donations for running this blog. Despite many institutions wanting to advertise, I have decided to take the adverts off and demand donations. Consider it my pension. I give away a lot for free and in return get nothing but abuse. So click the button and send me a dollar.
Wouldn't it be cool to put money into the Fintag Ponzi Scheme? After I have collected some donations I shall tell you how I spent it. Good trade, eh?
PRIVATE SCHOOLS CLOSING AT RATE OF ONE A FORTNIGHT AS CRUNCH SENDS FAMILIES TO STATE SYSTEM
One private school is forced to close every fortnight as the credit crunch means families can no longer afford the fees.
At least 30 fee-paying schools have shut or merged in the past year, according to teachers' leaders.
A handful have reopened under new management but most have gone under, leaving parents scrambling to find new schools at short notice and teachers out of work.
Fintag says Pre empting the future is a real doddle if you just use your common sense. Here is a cartoon from last year:
Many deflationistas believe that the wealth being destroyed by the bursting of the global credit bubble will swamp the money being created by fiscal and monetary authorities for the foreseeable future, thus eliminating the threat of inflation, at least in the near term.
But what they seem to be discounting is the effect that a contagious loss of confidence can have on the value of a fiat currency, which is, after all, dependent on the continued faith of those who accept it as a medium of exchange and a store of value.
Fintag says The jury is still out at Fintag. This is still unchartered waters and despite inflation products booming away, will general prices go up or into negative territory is still unknown.
In August 2008, Tetsuya Ishikawa was made redundant from his job at Morgan Stanley.
How I Caused The Credit Crunch is a work of 'faction' which takes in Ishikawa's seven years at the forefront of the credit markets, and is an expose of the human failings behind the credit crisis. It is a tale from the heart of the bewildering banking maelstrom whose catastrophic collapse has plunged the world towards the worst recession since the 1930s.
Fintag says Novels are being written by thousands of unemployed incompetent bankers right now. Most will be dire. They will all tell the same story and it will be really dull. Unless of course someone writes a story about the excesses that were never reported in the media. Watch this space (if you are an agent / publisher and want a decent lunch and a full synopsis plus many chapters already written, then contact me ...but be prepared for debauchery and damn right hubris)
A Canadian man who dubbed himself the "Chinese Warren Buffett" faces federal charges of running a Ponzi scheme that targeted primarily Chinese-Americans and has left millions of dollars unaccounted for, the Securities and Exchange Commission announced Monday.
A federal judge in Dallas last week granted the SEC's request for emergency relief for investors, freezing the assets of Weizhen Tang, 50, of Toronto, and several of his businesses, including the Texas-based WinWin Capital Management LLC. The judge appointed a receiver to take control of Tang's assets, which also include WinWin Capital Partners LP and Bluejay Investment LLC.
Fintag says Winwin capital - doesn't the name give it away?
ZUCKERMAN SUES MERKIN OVER $40 MILLION MADOFF LOSS
Mort Zuckerman, chairman of Boston Properties Inc. and publisher of the New York Daily News, sued Ezra Merkin and his Gabriel Capital LP over $40 million in losses stemming from investments made with Bernard Madoff.
Zuckerman today accused Merkin, the former GMAC Financial Services chairman, of placing his assets with Bernard L. Madoff Investment Securities LLC without his knowledge. Madoff, 70, was convicted on federal charges last month of using his firm to run a $65 billion fraud, the biggest Ponzi scheme ever.
Fintag says The only people who are happy in the US are litigation / dispute resolution lawyers.
REVEALED: HEDGE FUND AND PE LEVERAGE, AMONGST OTHER STRICTURES
Managers of hedge funds and private equity will need to be registered, hold a minimum level of capital and provide regulators with information on both the size and source of their borrowings, according to a draft EU proposal obtained by Reuters.
The information, which could be fed to the new-fangled European Systemic Risk Council, will also include national regulators being told each fund's exposure to illiquid assets, together with details of the valuation methodology employed and the custodian arrangements.
Firms with less than €250m under management will be exempt from the proposals, however.
Fintag says So that will be easy to get around then. Does the 250 include leverage? What if I open up 4 managed accounts will 240 in and set up 4 different advisers? Where there is a will, there is a way. And who will ever find out? I will just lie and say my funds have been written down. They are private pools of capital. Is this the end of privacy?
Fund managers are focused on building up disclosures, a report by software provider Sophis has revealed.
Hedge funds and asset managers are increasingly prioritising transparency to address the lack of investor confidence in their risk management standards, according to the study.
Sophis said a collapse in investor confidence over risk management within the sector is causing a cultural shift, with 67% of asset managers planning to embrace transparency by increasing investor reporting.
Fintag says More reports. Nice.
This isn't so nice:
financial news says " Most see liquidity drying up if SEC brings back uptick rule "
JAPAN'S HEDGE FUNDS SHUN TRADING MODELS TO FIND 'HIDDEN JEWELS'
Hideki Wakabayashi sat through 500 meetings with company executives before settling on the stocks that produced a 13 percent advance last year for the long-short equity hedge fund he runs at Tokyo-based Finnowave Investments.
Toru Hashizume matched Wakabayashi's performance with a 13 percent return for his Ginga Service Sector Fund by following a similar path. He said he sifted through 800 stocks before betting on about 70.
Fintag says Funny how the Japanese were forced out of Hedge Funds (thanks to Basel 2) and into Japanese equities as the market tanked big time and now they want back in.
The Irish Republic's government is to unveil its second budget in six months as the economy contracts sharply.
Dublin faces the double challenge of dealing with a deepening recession while being forced to correct the worst deficit in Europe.
Fintag says Thankfully it is part of the EURO. So how do the other member states feel about bailing out the Iceland of Europe? They pumped billions into it when it was poor and will have to pump billions into now it is (was) very rich. The joke is with the Irish ...
38 comments
MsR said ...
Gosh Fin, you're not suggesting I write a novel about hedge funds, sex, wealth and hubris and call it Toxic People are you? Maybe I will
07 Apr 09 - 08:23 gmt
AthenaDelphi said ...
I donated! xxxoooxxx
07 Apr 09 - 08:52 gmt
AthenaDelphi said ...
"How I caused the credit crunch." Fin-You missed the book/interview with the guy who MADE THE SOFTWARE that allowed the people to do what they did. He says his family has lost almost all of their $$. Guess that's why he did the book.
07 Apr 09 - 08:55 gmt
anonymous said ...
I hate it when moron is right about the markets. Up almost 1%.
07 Apr 09 - 09:03 gmt
anonymous said ...
I saw that the manufacturing sector of England was terrible for the quarter. Pass the Gordon's Gin. I'd like to help.
07 Apr 09 - 09:19 gmt
Moron said ...
i am an animal.....if u ever met me in real life u would run scared....never underestimate Moron:))))
07 Apr 09 - 09:31 gmt
Moron said ...
but I do love playing the dribbling idiot on this site....its fun:)))
07 Apr 09 - 09:39 gmt
Anonymous Bull said ...
@anon 9.03 pls do explain how moron has been proven right about the mkts? What your seeing is a temp pullback caused by profit taking from most houses. Be prepared for the next leg up..
07 Apr 09 - 10:32 gmt
Moron said ...
next leg up...??? yeah lets have the next leg up....lets come out flying from the greatest financial crisis of our lifetimes in a beautiful v shape that keeps the idiotic american spirit of unbridled optimism still alive...can't wait!!!
07 Apr 09 - 10:37 gmt
Moron said ...
no wonder the word bull forms the first few letters of bullsh*t:)))
07 Apr 09 - 10:38 gmt
Wink and Read said ...
sold all my remaining GS shares yesterday, looking for a retest of the lows, shorting at these levels is a no brainer
07 Apr 09 - 11:19 gmt
Moron said ...
grrrrrrr..........:)))
07 Apr 09 - 11:24 gmt
Tradebot said ...
'tis bear market rally ain't over until SPX gets to touching distance of 1000! market moves in the way where it is going to hurt the most amount of people... you need more upticks to get the widows and orphans to go long for the drop. No time to go short.... yet!
07 Apr 09 - 11:36 gmt
Anonymous Bull said ...
@moron and anon well its your choice to listen and either accept/reject my view. Either way when im proven right again!!!...am available to mentor you through this market...lol
07 Apr 09 - 12:41 gmt
Munch said ...
Whining Brits
Where are the REAL men?
07 Apr 09 - 13:41 gmt
Moron said ...
anon bull.....grrrrrrr....don't mess with the animal:))))
07 Apr 09 - 13:48 gmt
Moron said ...
anon bull.....let's meet up for a fight, settle things the old fashioned way :))))
07 Apr 09 - 14:00 gmt
MiC said ...
Careful, FiN. If the US government shows up and forces you to take TARP funds, you mind find yourself hauled in front of Congress to discuss your egregious pay.
07 Apr 09 - 14:40 gmt
Moron said ...
news on bloomberg.....obama lands in iraq on unannounced stop.....what an idiot....what a smiling clueless idiot.............grrrr!!!....im sure hillary would have done a better job.....i can see her saying these ppl deserve the mess they are in ..... voted for 3 idiots in a row.......clinton, bush and obama:))))
07 Apr 09 - 14:47 gmt
Anonymous Bull said ...
@Moron i warn u i was trained by Mr Miyagi in the way of kara-te...I am a deadly fighting machine..lol!!
07 Apr 09 - 15:00 gmt
Moron said ...
@anon bull......i am a third degree brown belt in karate...no kidding ....didnt get the black belt bcos i broke my instructor's nose during a kumite and they threw me out....no kidding:))))
07 Apr 09 - 15:03 gmt
Moron said ...
so now let me think....what happens when a total amateur in karate (probably a yellow belt....what a dainty little colour:)))).....steps into a fight with a hard nosed pro.....i guess the same thing that happens when a chimpanzee falls out of a tree and comes face to face with a roraring lion:))))
07 Apr 09 - 15:08 gmt
Rock hard chimp said ...
Moron you fool. Chimpanzees are incredibly strong. Don't knock them
07 Apr 09 - 15:36 gmt
Moron said ...
GRRRRR:))))
07 Apr 09 - 15:38 gmt
anonymous said ...
Is it just me that loves this blog, but is more than mildly irritated by Moron monopolising the comments with total rubbish? About one in ten of his comments are interesting. The rest self-serving nonsense. Does this chump really have a job? It seems that most people managing money wouldn't have time to write this much on a blog. I suspect the comments made a few weeks ago that he is either unemployed, nothing to do with finance, or a day trader, are accurate. I hope he disappears without trace
07 Apr 09 - 15:39 gmt
Moron said ...
very emotional comment.....u r right though....i talk too much rubbish!!!
07 Apr 09 - 15:44 gmt
Mr. Bean said ...
Our friend Moron, forever constipated with short calls and inane banter.
The domain name "donkeyideas.com" is availible, and I for one suggests he creates his own blog there.
:P
07 Apr 09 - 16:20 gmt
Moron said ...
but, on second thoughts, at least it adds liquidity to the comments section....so here comes some more rubbish:))) 1. self serving.....how...identity not revealed:))) 2, unemployed.....too relaxed to be unemployed! 3. nothing to do with finance.....actually most ppl in finance do nothing all day....u must be the only exception:)))) so....lets have a fight!!!
07 Apr 09 - 16:21 gmt
anonymous said ...
Shut up Moron. Doesnt your IG account need some attention.....?
07 Apr 09 - 16:47 gmt
Moron said ...
:))))))
07 Apr 09 - 16:49 gmt
Curly One said ...
Moron, keep your comments to those related to the market and you'll be fine. Stop talking about yourself all the time, stop those bizarre and cr@p smiley faces, and try and post 75% less often. Or, as suggested, get your own blog
07 Apr 09 - 17:01 gmt
Moron said ...
ok here goes market comment.......seeing some early cyclical names that i know well trading at midcyle valuations after this rally.....just adds to my suspicions that there is too much optimism now for the rally to carry any further...what are the bulls seeing that makes them think we can get to 1000 on s and p???....am very interested in knowing....
07 Apr 09 - 17:06 gmt
anonymous said ...
too little too late king cnut
07 Apr 09 - 17:09 gmt
MiC said ...
if we get through 1000 on the S&P, we are in comfirming territory that it would be on the onset of a new cyclical bull lasting several quarters. sorry bub, no way.
it's reasonable to argue that the current bull run in bear market isn't done, but there's just no way the bear market is over.
07 Apr 09 - 18:44 gmt
Moron said ...
dunno mate...am seeing all the classic signs that this rally is over.....both technically and fundamentally (mid cycle stock prices on early cyclical stocks)!!!!
07 Apr 09 - 19:03 gmt
anonymous said ...
i guess we are stuck with 666 to 966 on the spx for the next year or two..before the big down leg to sub 500. Expect a lot more of these (seemingly) massive rallies and a lot more of anon bull v/s moron crap.
07 Apr 09 - 20:38 gmt
anonymous said ...
I see that whenever anyone mentions negative about obama the people here want to shut the poster up. First was Athena and next is Moron. I didn't know that hedge funds were all pro-Labor or pro-democrat.
07 Apr 09 - 22:20 gmt
Alpha60 said ...
I don't trust Obama. Bit too much rhetoric and oratorial skills for my liking...Wasn't a dodgy german about 60+yrs ago v good at that too!!