28JAN09:
Q1-09 DOW: 8900
Q2-09 DOW: 7250
Q3-09 DOW: 5810
Q4-09 DOW: 3960
CITI NATIONALIZED
OBAMA GETS SICK 27AUG09:
Mini Crash 21SEP09 Predicted correctly:
Bailout=Bonuses
Demise of Bear Stearns
Demise of Lehman Bros.
Demise of AIG
Subprime would cause problems
Date of 2007 crash
CRAs were to blame
G20 riots were a party
Northern Rock run
Northern Rock Nationalization
HBOS and RBS demise
UBS really was Useless
With talk of Inflation, punitive taxation and rising unemployment it seemed only reasonable to get in touch with those who remember the 1970's. It would have been a pleasure to interview Mick Jagger who left the UK when nearly all his earnings were taxed but alas he was unavailable. Luckily I was at a private seminar with Goldman Sachs last night with some old timers who regaled stories of tax and awe. They were of course petrified of the vote on heavy taxation of bonuses and had no time to talk about anything else. Goldman have been lending money to employees to help them out but with this practice being potentially challenged, they are looking at anything to avoid paying tax on their bonuses.
Some are arguing that they never got a bonus. It was monies owed from previous years efforts that they forgot to collect. Others say they are partners and receive drawings so they never had bonuses. And so on. The lawyers I am sure are lovin' it.
However, I do feel truly sorry for these people and anyone who is a US citizen. Obama is on the socialist road to hell.
HOUSE PASSES HEAVY TAX ON BONUSES AT RESCUED FIRMS
The House overwhelmingly approved on Thursday a near total tax on bonuses paid this year to employees of the American International Group and other firms that have accepted large amounts of federal bailout funds, rattling Wall Street as lawmakers rushed to respond to populist anger.
Despite questions about the legality of the retroactive 90 percent levy, Democrats and some Republicans said the tax on bonuses for traders, executives and bankers earning more than $250,000 was the quickest way to show angry Americans that Congress intended to recoup the extra dollars. Even backers of the measure noted it was an extraordinary step.
Fintag says The electorate are angry and rightly so but just like prohibition, this is a step too far. The repercussions are horrendous and a flight to the black economy will be the new black.
So today we should pray for those at JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Citi, AIG FP, and Wells Fargo.
---Please God, if these wretched urchins have spent their ill gotten bonuses, please help them find a way to pay the tax that the almighty O needs to placate the rioting jobless and socialist state troopers who have lost everything to people smarter than they but who are now caught out by their own arrogance. Amen
For those in London, be careful because Gordon Brown will jump onto this band wagon for sure. Bankers are not safe. No wonder Barclays did everything to avoid being contaminated by Government ownership.
Investment Banking is truly dead. Long live Hedge Funds!
dealbreaker says " Is The AIG Tax Constitutional? "
LONDON WILL REMAIN KEY FINANCIAL CENTRE AS LIGHT-TOUCH REGULATION ENDS, TURNER INSISTS
Setting out his vision for change, the FSA's new chairman issued a stark warning that regulation will become far more stringent. However, this tough new line will not harm London's position as a premier financial centre, he claimed, because regulation worldwide will become more rigid.
In a statement intended to counter threats from hedge funds and other financial institutions that they may relocate if the UK becomes unattractive, he added: "We are not going to fall into the trap that we did in the past of trying to get a minor competitive advantage by making regulation a little lighter than elsewhere. The disadvantages of getting it wrong are hugely bigger."
Fintag says This is the UK's big opportunity ...leave taxes alone, keep the light touch and all the banks will set up their head offices in Canary Wharf.
Obama, we love you. Just as the Fed hoovers up old debt and pays out huge amounts to China and Japan who cannot believe their luck, Obama has presided over some tax legislation that will send people packing from the USA. What else is he going to do? Grow vegetables?
Gold futures in New York rose as much as $563.70, or 7.2 per cent, to $952.80 an ounce after the Fed said it would buy as much as $300 billion of U.S. government bonds, adding to the supply of dollars. Heating oil rallied 6.7 per cent, copper gained 5.4 per cent and aluminium advanced 3.8 per cent.
“Money is being pushed into the system and that's creating the inflationary threats that the markets are contemplating,” said Daniel Brebner, executive director of commodity research at UBS AG in London. “Commodities are a decent way to hedge against that potential threat. Real estate could be another.”
Fintag says Of course inflation is what we all want. But only if it can be controlled. Cash is so 2008. Gold is the new black for 2009, although I look better in Silver and Platinum.
reuters says " Oil pares gains after 7 percent surge, hovers around $51 "
Michelle Obama will begin digging up a patch of the South Lawn on Friday to plant a vegetable garden, the first at the White House since Eleanor Roosevelt's victory garden in World War II. There will be no beets — the president does not like them — but arugula will make the cut.
While the organic garden will provide food for the first family's meals and formal dinners, its most important role, Mrs. Obama said, will be to educate children about healthful, locally grown fruit and vegetables at a time when obesity and diabetes have become a national concern.
Fintag says This is the most frightening news I have ever read. Do they know something we don't?
huffington post says " "Washington's A Little Bit Like American Idol, Except Everybody Is Simon Cowell" "
David Cameron signalled that the rich will have to pay "their fair share" to rescue the economy from the mounting crisis in the public finances.
And it was made clear that hundreds of thousands of top earners will face paying the new rate - which Labour will also introduce after the election if they hang onto power - if he enters Number 10.
Fintag says So, who thinks the markets are going to recover now in the near future? Looks to me like the house market is going to crash even faster than before, consumer demand will freeze as we barter everything and nobody will ever be seen wearing jimmy choos. Instead we should go long sandals and short hairdressers.
AMERICANS GETTING JOBLESS BENEFITS REACH 5.5 MILLION
The number of Americans collecting jobless benefits swelled to a record 5.47 million, indicating that former employees are unable to find new work as companies continue to cut costs.
The number of people staying on benefit rolls jumped by 185,000 in the week ended March 7, the Labor Department said today in Washington. Initial jobless applications last week topped 600,000 for a seventh straight time, the worst performance since 1982, while the figure was less than forecast.
Fintag says Food stamps. The Waltons. Anarchy in the USA.
The biggest loser of the year was Fairfield Greenwich's $6.9 billion Sentry Fund, which fed money exclusively to the Madoff incinerator. Fairfield's other funds had around $7 billion in them and experienced heavy losses as well because of the chaotic market.
Tremont Group's Rye family of funds, which included more than 10 vehicles, may be out more than $3.1 billion because of Mr. Madoff, which put it at No. 9 in HedgeFund Intelligence's list of last year's biggest flame-outs. In tenth place was Kingate Management's Kingate Global fund, with $2.7 billion and also a Madoff problem.
Many firms that closed last year did not have Madoff exposure, of course. Coming in at No. 2 on the top 10 list was Drake Management, with $4.7 billion in assets under management at its peak. The firm decided to shut down after it failed to get enough support from investors.
Fintag says The hedge fund graveyard. Leave them. They are losers. Concentrate of the survivors.
But hey, when did DB Zwim go down? Did I miss that one?
BANK OF AMERICA LOSES MERRILL BONUS DISCLOSURE CASE
Bank of America has lost its legal fight to prevent New York State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo from publicly releasing the names of the 200 Merrill Lynch staff who bagged the biggest bonuses for their toils in 2008.
Reuters reports that New York State Supreme Court Justice Bernard Fried ruled that 'the record does not support the intervenor's claim that the employee compensation information is a trade secret'. Bank of America has confirmed that it will comply with the ruling. Cuomo said that AIG was next on his list.
Fintag says Remember this crap cartoon? And the winner is, the taxpayer ...
In these difficult economic times, it falls to each of us to do what we can for those less fortunate. So it was that Ms Robinson found herself taking a hedge fund manager to dinner in Mayfair, an area where he once walked tall in Kilgour suits.
Having successfully halved the net worth of his clients, he is now reduced to slinking between the doorways of Curzon Street in Oxfam cast offs, avoiding anyone with a Russian accent. I found him in a manhole in Brook Street.
The Holy See is struggling to contain international anger over the Pope's claim on his first official visit to Africa that Aids "cannot be overcome through the distribution of condoms, which even aggravates the problems".
The Pope's remarks about condoms, and a recent furore over his lifting of the 20-year excommunication of a British bishop who has questioned the Holocaust, has left him looking isolated and out of touch, prompting calls for a radical shake-up of the way the Holy See delivers its message.
Fintag says Maybe the Pope should join Obama's team.
EU AGREES FUNDING OF €100M FOR IRISH INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS FROM €5BN ECONOMIC STIMULUS PACKAGE; GERMAN AMBASSADOR WARNS OF SECOND IRISH NO TO LISBON TREATY
EU agree funding of €100m for Irish infrastructure projects from €5bn economic stimulus package; German ambassador warns of second Irish No to Lisbon Treaty
EU leaders on Thursday agreed a €5 billion economic stimulus package which will provide more than €100 million EU funding for Irish infrastructure projects. Meanwhile, the German ambassador to Ireland has defended remarks he made at a cultural event in Tralee, Co Kerry, in which he warned of the consequences of a second Irish No to the Lisbon Treaty.
The SEC has today filed suit against David Loglisci, a 38 year old ex-investment banker who, from 2004 to 2007, served as CIO and Deputy Controller of the New York State Common Retirement Fund together with his alleged accomplice, Henry Morris. According to the SEC's website,
The SEC's complaint alleges that Henry "Hank" Morris, the top political advisor and chief fundraiser for former New York State Comptroller Alan Hevesi, and David Loglisci, former Deputy Comptroller and Chief Investment Officer of the New York State Common Retirement Fund, orchestrated a fraudulent scheme from 2003 through late 2006 that corrupted the integrity of the New York State Common Retirement Fund in order to enrich Morris as well as others with close ties to Morris and Loglisci.
Fintag says The news has been pretty dull recently. And then it all comes at once ...
HEDGE FUND FRAUDSTER GREBOW GETS FOUR YEARS IN PRISON
Convicted hedge fund Ponzi schemer Bret Grebow has been sentenced to four years in prison for defrauding investors of almost $8 million.
Grebow, co-founder of Montvale, N.J.-based hedge fund HMC International, pleaded guilty last year to investment adviser fraud. He swindled investors of $7.8 million, according to prosecutors, before HMC collapsed in September 2005.
“Grebow operated HMC as a classic Ponzi scheme, using new investor funds to pay distributions and redemptions to existing investors,” prosecutors charged.
Fintag says Another ponzi scheme ...when will this end?
A $639m London hedge fund collapsed on Thursday night after the discovery that the main asset of Weavering Capital's flagship fund was a $637m derivatives trade with an offshore company controlled by the fund's founder and chief executive. Weavering Capital called in administrators on Thursday and its Weavering Macro Fixed Income fund was put into liquidation in the Cayman Islands. Weavering froze the fund a week ago after discovering the position and calling in PwC to investigate.
Fintag says This is getting silly. Can I go back to bed?
Goldman Sachs said shareholders in the investment bank's London-listed fund of hedge funds would have to wait until 2012 to get all their cash back if they voted against continuing the $522m (£372m) fund, as the scale of problems facing the listed hedge fund sector becomes clear.
Goldman's Dynamic Opportunities yesterday called a continuation vote, triggered by a clause requiring a vote if the shares trade at a discount to net assets averaging 5 per cent over 12 months.
Fintag says Remind me, who are Goldman Sachs? Wasn't it that company where after 9 interviews to get in, gruelling hours of arrogance and pay packets that would pay off the debt of most African countries, the employees were superior to every other human being? It appears no more. What is happening to the world? Who are the new villains?
And finally... It appears only bonuses paid after 31 December will be impacted. Merrills staff have got away with it ... Phew!
29 comments
Hanky Paulson. said ...
Ben is so lucky. Who else has ever been able to spend trillions of somebody else's money with no return and not get put in jail. I love the stuff he's buying too. Everything that nobody else wants. The guy is a genius. I've invited him to my place in the Hamptons this summer if it doesn't work out. We can have a good laugh at Bernie Madoff's expense. Hey Fin close your fund and you can join us.
20 Mar 09 - 08:05 gmt
Moron said ...
seeing some action in a few names that basically tells me we are going down sharply here to a new low....this is the end of a bear market rally rather than a pullback in the context of a newly minted bull market.....anyone who uses the term bull market anymore should be castrated and shot!!!
20 Mar 09 - 09:33 gmt
anonymous said ...
not bad for a friday Fin.....
20 Mar 09 - 09:59 gmt
anonymous said ...
actually Wonder Woman aka Michelle is the gardener in chief
20 Mar 09 - 10:07 gmt
Jaa said ...
Not sure donkey..not sure..would be happy enough with a sell off to 700 in spx....BTW triple witching day, today so could have some whipsaw action later on.. have a good un..
20 Mar 09 - 10:09 gmt
MS said ...
you are using the idiom "the new black" too often.
20 Mar 09 - 10:12 gmt
Moron said ...
Jaa imho...next stop ...dow 6000...i am salivating.....what do u call a donkey who salivates.....a sally donkey:))))
20 Mar 09 - 10:13 gmt
anti 24/7 said ...
i blame the internet, wikipedia, instant messaging, 24/7 reporting, the education system, drugs, head hunters, working at weekends, working at all.
20 Mar 09 - 10:18 gmt
KONG said ...
Jimmy Choo left London over six months ago, much to my wife's dismay and my bank balance's relief. He's back in Malaysia where they don't tax his eyeballs out.
20 Mar 09 - 10:19 gmt
Jaa said ...
hahaha.. you buffoon....
20 Mar 09 - 10:19 gmt
Moron said ...
Jaa ... why u not so sure.... r u seeing anything that i'm missing????
20 Mar 09 - 10:43 gmt
MsR said ...
@Kong Oh put her in old school trainers. When the revolution comes we'll all have to run very fast.
20 Mar 09 - 11:09 gmt
Jaa said ...
Moron..not sure if you are familiar with elliotwave. Anyhow, the top count for me in SPX as a benchmark, considers the move down from highs in 2007 to recent low as 5th wave conclusion . I was expecting one more leg down to new lows, but the recent rally above 800..
20 Mar 09 - 11:41 gmt
Jaa said ...
....has ALMOST negated this view. On balance of probabilities I would say there is an equal chance of new lows or stalling at 700...we have to see how price action plays out in the sell-off to have any idea. Ofcourse your views will be helpful.
20 Mar 09 - 11:41 gmt
Moron said ...
i get elliotwaves....but the action now smells more like wave 4 than wave 5....depends i guess if u believe the peak of this bull market was early 06 or mid 07....then the 06 correction would have been wave 4 and the rise into 07 wave 5 before the crash......on that assumption we shud be at wave 4 now with wave 5 leading to a final brutal capitulatory selloff no.....???????
20 Mar 09 - 11:54 gmt
Moron said ...
of course....other than that.....i am still a donkey:))))
20 Mar 09 - 12:20 gmt
Jaa said ...
No doubt we could still be in an extending 5th wave with the capitaulation day to come, this would be highly preferable for me. However there are a number of scenarios that could play out, its just not as clear cut. Your analysis maybe helpful in clearing up any uncertainties.. But for the moment I agree, we should be heading lower..
20 Mar 09 - 12:26 gmt
Moron said ...
not even sure if i am such a believer in elliott wave ..... the problem with these big picture theories is that u can rationalize them somehow if u look at past market behaviour since markets are so choppy.....can always find some pattern that fits some wave somehow.....thats what concerns me....
20 Mar 09 - 12:30 gmt
anonymous said ...
get a room
20 Mar 09 - 12:55 gmt
Jaa said ...
no single study is best, using different ones together can sometimes give a high level of confidence in ones view. In the past EW has worked well for me and not just in stocks...for most people is mumbo jumbo.. and your a donkey..
20 Mar 09 - 13:41 gmt
Super Mario said ...
Where have the europeans on this blog gone...must be on holiday!!
20 Mar 09 - 14:18 gmt
damiendamien said ...
Tyne,Dogger moderate to poor. Rockall,Malin,Hebrides moderate or good, occasionally poor later.
20 Mar 09 - 14:21 gmt
Moron said ...
hearing a lot of chatter that this is a pullback within an intermediate term uptrend and the uptrend will resume after a week or so....i just dont buy that arguement.....still stand by what my work is showing......next stop dow 6000....fasten ur seatbelts!!!!
20 Mar 09 - 15:24 gmt
anonymous said ...
great point by leon black about commercial real estate. Hold on to your hats. 4 trillion to unwind.
20 Mar 09 - 15:32 gmt
anonymous said ...
DB Zwirn went down about a year or two ago. Some issues with auditors and the SEC. Fund is now in liquidation.
20 Mar 09 - 15:44 gmt
anonymous said ...
and I had read that there were allegations that a certain private jet used for private use was mistakenly paid for by the fund..
20 Mar 09 - 15:46 gmt
Moron said ...
private jets are cool......love the little pvt jet building at city airport with mini lounges:)))
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