28JAN09:
Q1-09 DOW: 8900
Q2-09 DOW: 7250
Q3-09 DOW: 5810
Q4-09 DOW: 3960
CITI NATIONALIZED
OBAMA GETS SICK 27AUG09:
Mini Crash 21SEP09 Predicted correctly:
Bailout=Bonuses
Demise of Bear Stearns
Demise of Lehman Bros.
Demise of AIG
Subprime would cause problems
Date of 2007 crash
CRAs were to blame
G20 riots were a party
Northern Rock run
Northern Rock Nationalization
HBOS and RBS demise
UBS really was Useless
Just as a glimmer of hope glimmered across the horizon the other day and nervous investors and traders dreamt of better times, that old black dog has started to bark again. Bear markets are difficult to trade because they are not linear in the short term and unlike a waterfall where gravity just pulls you down, they flap around like a one winged seagull. This market is fighting the pull of gravity and gusts of wind keep thrusting the parachutists back to the airplane [Editor: Uh? Another outpouring of wind ...]
All eyes are on anything that could signal the end or the beginning of a new bear market. It is tiring, but then again I am only talking about equities. There are many more markets to ride but the media is always fixated by the equity market indices. And rightly so because it is one of the few liquid markets that indicate long term sentiment. The long dated bond market is supposed to help us understand the yield curve, the currency markets the viability of a country and the commodity markets the state of progress. But equities encompasses all economic variables and hence our love of understanding and taming the beast.
It is spring in the UK and flowers are starting to grow. They are glimmers of better things and we all hope that this glimmering turns into a full blown eye blinding nuclear sun.
Todays theme is glimmer.
Definition: A faint light; a dim glow; A flash of light; A faint or remote possibility; To shine with a faint light (wiki)
HOUSE PRICES 'COULD DROP ANOTHER 55%' AND LEAVE BRITAIN BANKRUPT
House prices could slump by another 55 per cent, a respected City forecaster warns.
It also predicts a deep recession lasting throughout next year and a 'very real probability' that Britain will go bankrupt.
The report leaked yesterday from financial analysts Numis Securities says that the collapse in house prices is not 'anywhere near over'.
They have already fallen 21 per cent from their peak, but the report says they will slump further by up to 55 per cent if the over-correction in prices is as bad as in the early 1990s.
That would leave 6million Britons in negative equity - when their house is worth less than their mortgage.
Fintag says Haven't I been saying this for a couple of years [Editor: No]? 60% of the UK's balance sheet is real estate. This is madness. Here is a history lesson in pictures (I have a hangover after the consumption of too much German beer and words are not coming easily - I was wrong about Munich; it is a really fun place):
The investment bank's proprietary trading desk disclosed its 0.29pc short position just a day after it emerged that John Paulson, the New York-based hedge fund manager, had made a profit of up to £300m by betting on a fall in Lloyds Banking Group shares.
Morgan Stanley, which could be working on behalf of a third-party client, is thought to be one of the first short-sellers to take a disclosable position in Standard Chartered. The bank's shares fell 11½ to 798½p.
Fintag says Standard Chartered has so far avoided the spotlight but alas its time is here. A glimmer of goodness blighted by a glimmer of lies. Perhaps.
bloomberg says " UBS Has SF20.9 Billion Loss, 'Cautious' on Outlook "
This week there are 526 opportunities to be in the employment of the taxpayer as you can see on the right. This week's non-job, however, comes from Northamptonshire County Council:
“Community Policy Manager £46,470 - £57,168 pa
The purpose of Community Partnerships is to manage community growth, diversity and cohesion; improving the quality of life for the people of Northamptonshire; and supporting all people and communities, especially those that are vulnerable or at most risk of social exclusion.
Fintag says Socialists. Civil Servants. Red Tape. Glimmering bonkersness.
FREDDIE TO TAP $30.8 BILLION IN AID AS LOSSES DEEPEN
Freddie Mac, the mortgage-finance company thrust into a leading role in President Barack Obama's homeowner rescue plans, said it will tap an additional $30.8 billion in federal aid after loan holdings and other assets deteriorated.
Fintag says Not much glimmering in this pile of toxic waste.
Recessions gripping economies around the world will hit men harder than women as job insecurity threatens an inherent sense of masculinity, damaging mental health, a British researchers said this month.
A study by Cambridge University showed that despite more women than men losing their jobs in Britain due to the credit crunch, men who think they may be fired or made redundant are likely to become more stressed and depressed than women.
Fintag says This is because men never smell the flowers.
CALPERS INVESTMENT BOSS TO FACE HIS FIRST BIG TEST
Market turbulence has battered the California Public Employees' Retirement System, one of the country's largest retirement plans, as its funding ratio fell to 66% during the first six months of its fiscal year to December 31—compared with 89% at the start of last year—handing its new chief investment officer his first big test.
Fintag says I am waiting for Arnie to rape CALpers to help pay off his budget deficit.
The fear factor is taking over the markets, the economy and the public psyche. And no matter what programs or photo ops the new administration stages, it won't help restore public confidence if the rhetoric and the policies are surrounded by gloom.
This is not to say that "positive thinking" can turn the stock market around, or restore jobs, or create incentives for business to expand production, or even for consumers to start spending again. That would require real incentives -- things like lower tax rates on risky investments or capital gains. Or tax breaks for entrepreneurs to create businesses and expand hiring.
Fintag says I am struggling to find glimmering news. Where art thou' my glimmer?
Microsoft Corp founder Bill Gates is the richest man again, overtaking investor Warren Buffett, as the global financial meltdown wiped out $2 trillion from the net worth of the world's billionaires, Forbes Magazine said on Wednesday.
The number of billionaires in the world fell by nearly a third to 793 in the past year, with large numbers dropping off the list in Russia, India and Turkey.
Fintag says Buffet takes a wrong turn into insurance alley and Gates gives us Vista, the worst experience you could ever want. And Gates is in the lead again.
Investors flocked to sell government bonds to the Bank of England as it launched an unprecedented programme to expand the money supply and breathe new life into the economy.
The Bank was overwhelmed with offers to sell the bonds by some of the country's biggest investment groups in an early sign of success over its historic quantitative easing move.
Fintag says A glimmer of hope or down right panic? Swapping UK debt into cash and buying gold. Good trade.
JIM CRAMER SHORTING STOCKS, MANIPULATING MARKETS, SAYING THE SEC DOESN'T UNDERSTAND
In light of the current economic crisis, and with the hullabaloo ignited recently by Jon Stewart over the accuracy of CNBC's reporting, we thought it might be useful to revisit this shocking 2006 interview Jim Cramer gave to TheStreet.com's Aaron Task.
In it, the host of Mad Money says he regularly manipulated the market when he ran his hedge fund. He calls it "a fun game, and it's a lucrative game." He suggests all hedge fund managers do the same. "No one else in the world would ever admit that, but I could care. I am not going to say it on TV," he quips in the video.
Fintag says How can an unregulated journalist be able to do this? This is the problem with the world. Financial Institutions are being regulated to death and journalists can sell any old pap.
Hedge funds of funds, the middlemen that pension funds and endowments often use to create alternative portfolios, lost roughly one-third of their assets last year, according to new data released on Tuesday. The industry's largest funds of funds, managing more than $1 billion, now jointly control $744 billion in assets, according to industry publication InvestHedge.
Fintag says Thanks to Madoff of course. These funds feed my funds so this glimmering news of sadness is not good. However, this is nothing compared to the loss to the families in Germany regarding the latest teenage video game massacre. The fact I am in Germany is a coincidence [Editor: Although you do seem to follow trouble ...]
Law firms across the United States may be dismissing partners and staff, cutting bonuses and freezing salaries, but every cloud has a silver lining: experienced bankruptcy and restructuring lawyers are hotter than ever as the number of corporate failures surges.
According to BankruptcyData.com in January and February this year 36 publicly traded companies filed for bankruptcy in the US, up from 17 last year and 11 in 2007. The companies involved were also larger, with a combined value of $66.5 billion, compared with $10.6 billion last year.
Fintag says Glimmering lawyers. Don't you just love 'em.
29 comments
Doddsegg said ...
so in the nuclear sun we all go blind and then the triffids arrive , take over the earth and we have to live in our own small island enclave- but arent we already blind and arent triffids already managing the earth?
12 Mar 09 - 08:31 gmt
anonymous said ...
Doctor finds a magic lantern on the beach. Rubs it and the genie pops out. "Okay, you know how this works but there's 1 change. Everything you ask for, lawyers get 2x"
12 Mar 09 - 09:13 gmt
anonymous said ...
Doctor - got it. first off I've worked hard all my life and want a villa on the beach. Genie - ok (poof - villa on the beach) but remember, lawyers get what you wish for x2.
Doctor, I'd like US$10million. (poof - money). Genie - OK but the layers got 20mil.
Doctor: I've had a good life and feel charitable so I wish to give one of my kidneys to a needy person. Genie smiles: Nice game plan!
12 Mar 09 - 09:14 gmt
Top Cat said ...
As previously mentioned, interest rates are always "slashed". And federal aid is always "tapped". Don't these financial journo's have any other phrases they could use?
12 Mar 09 - 09:45 gmt
Moron said ...
don't see this market bottoming out before 2010 at the earliest....more likely 2011....also hard to trust bear market rallies of any significance....go to realmoney.com and read all the recent articles by bob marcin.....unlike jim cramer (marketing machine).....marcin actually makes sense...comments very little.....but each comment is a gem
12 Mar 09 - 10:03 gmt
Moron said ...
a bit like me....comments very little....but each comment is a gem:))))
12 Mar 09 - 10:19 gmt
davros said ...
Cheer up fin, everything is amazing right now and nobody is happy ht_p://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LoGYx35ypus
12 Mar 09 - 10:51 gmt
MsR said ...
@Top Cat Or maybe they could just shut up and stop feeding the fire.
12 Mar 09 - 11:07 gmt
Top Cat said ...
@Ms R - agreed. A three month hiatus would be most agreeable
12 Mar 09 - 11:19 gmt
MsR said ...
@moron: You are a gem moron. Perhaps in need of some polishing but a gem nonetheless
12 Mar 09 - 11:32 gmt
Moron said ...
ms R....I am a nasty piece of work.....grrrrr!!!)))
12 Mar 09 - 11:37 gmt
MsR said ...
@moron: You can fool some of the girls moron, but not me
12 Mar 09 - 11:43 gmt
anonymous said ...
@moron you are a boring repetitive imbecile, making himself feel important by monopolising the comments on this blog. aside from your loyal sycophants panta and jaa and ms r, nobody wants to hear your banal rantings. i hope that you are slayed by anonymous bull in some sort of deathmatch.
12 Mar 09 - 12:04 gmt
anonymous said ...
@Fin, time to sack your new IT geek. Comments clock is out by one hour
12 Mar 09 - 12:05 gmt
Moron said ...
@anon....thank you for your insight.....now take ur lovely words.....curl then into a little ball.....and shove the ball up ur ar*e!!!
12 Mar 09 - 12:09 gmt
MsR said ...
@anon12.04 Darling, is that because in reality I would shred you to bits? I think I am far more welcome here than you and sycophancy is not what this is about. It is you who are not only banal, but lacking in imagination, curiousity and balls. I pity you.
12 Mar 09 - 12:13 gmt
Boston said ...
Callable federal agency bonds.... And lots of long walks to enjoy Spring.
12 Mar 09 - 14:26 gmt
Osiris said ...
bonds: too many sellers and one big buyer? and how is that a success?!? congratulations BoE you just crashed fixed income ... and that completes the trifecta ...
12 Mar 09 - 16:36 gmt
Anonymous Bull said ...
Anon 12.04 well said...But we need not worry. You see Moron is the kind of chancer you see in the mkt from time to time. He sounds like a day trader who blindly follows jim cramer...and prob trades out some chop shop in the counties. It just seems too convenient how he has so much time on his hands to be here and work at a HF!!
12 Mar 09 - 17:11 gmt
Moron said ...
hmmm...so am i boring or am i a chancer....make up ur mind bulls:)))) must say i prefer the chancer tag to the boring one!
12 Mar 09 - 17:15 gmt
Anonymous Bull said ...
I see it only took 4 mins to prove my point about Moron...
@MsR - Your presence on this blog adds a much needed feminine touch...think you will always be welcome!!!
12 Mar 09 - 17:32 gmt
Moron said ...
anonymous bull....enjoy ur day in the spotlight mate.....
12 Mar 09 - 17:34 gmt
anonymous said ...
if moron hadn't lost his nerve with his long call at the end of last week he would have been up by about £200 - pound a point. could have paid for oh i don't know a fintag cushion for his sofa plus maybe a mug.
12 Mar 09 - 17:43 gmt
Moron said ...
boring....chancer at a fund in the counties....spreadbetting from home......love it.....so much creativity in full flow:)))
12 Mar 09 - 17:51 gmt
MsR said ...
@anonymousbull. Thank you but where is my QuEasy money? Where are the helicopter drops?
12 Mar 09 - 17:55 gmt
anonymous said ...
i'm not a fixed income man, what are the implications of what yesterdays boe exchange?
12 Mar 09 - 18:03 gmt
anonymous said ...
ie, why has it fu**c*ed up fixed income?
12 Mar 09 - 18:19 gmt
Moron said ...
sell this rally guys.......market printing a strong panic buying signal again....it gets really nasty from here....!!!
12 Mar 09 - 20:42 gmt
AD said ...
to late for friday but i find it hillarious that Obama is now a cheerleader for Citibank and Bank of America telling everyone that its not that bad, blah blah blah - oh, don't read the fine print that these banks are nationalized so we need to make money - please buy our stock so we can get out first. PONZI.
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