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Fortune Telling
28JAN09:
Q1-09 DOW: 8900
Q2-09 DOW: 7250
Q3-09 DOW: 5810
Q4-09 DOW: 3960
CITI NATIONALIZED
OBAMA GETS SICK
27AUG09:
Mini Crash 21SEP09
Predicted correctly:
Bailout=Bonuses
Demise of Bear Stearns
Demise of Lehman Bros.
Demise of AIG
Subprime would cause problems
Date of 2007 crash
CRAs were to blame
G20 riots were a party
Northern Rock run
Northern Rock Nationalization
HBOS and RBS demise
UBS really was Useless


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THE FINTAG NEWSLETTER
@ Fri 27 February 2009 : GMT

FINTAG COMMENT

Political corrections.

If I say blondes are prettier and more fun, but are more unstable and hence not good marriage material... Or the Scottish are solely responsible for the demise of the UK and Scotland should be annexed... Or Obama is useless because he is a lawyer and is too tall... then some of you will agree and others disagree. Some of you will say, you can't say that. Others will want an argument. I prefer the latter as dictatorships grow out of socialism and we don't want that do we. Or do we?.

When debating serious issues is suppressed by society, the aggrieved find new ways to vent their frustrations. After the first world war when Germany was humiliated, it turned towards National Socialism and look where that ended.

The stifling of debate is feeding the rise in fascism. The UK is seeing a rise because only at the ballot box can you state how you really feel so underground it is bubbling unpleasantly. The conventional media are oppressed like a parmesian cheese wrapped in plastic in the fridge and we are always being told off for being thin, fat, greedy, smart, stupid, intelligent and working in finance. I have no idea what is right and wrong anymore.

Take house prices in the UK. They fell a lot yesterday but the media suppressed talking about it. Don't mention House Prices. Don't mention the gloom. Don't mention the masses are very pissed off and want to see the introduction of capital punishment.

That is where the bloggers come in. Soothsayers and lights of wisdom in a world of rabbits staring at on coming traffic.

Why should I defend being a hedgie? I employ lots of people directly and indirectly, provide happiness to my investors who look after your pensions or spend the money on goods and services. We are the markets. And yet I am detested but I am the answer too. [Editor: Are you starting a new religion? Fintagology perhaps?]

So please call me Finbar L Taggit.

3 in a bed
Yesterday I visited a Prime Broker and thanks to a co-fintagger putting me onto Single Stock Futures as an alternative to existing stock lending arrangements for some of my financing needs, we had a lively debate indeed. No more fees, no more counterparty risk, no more state street hot stocks, no more trading errors. My PB agreement has also been finessed and all that one way clausing has now gone and my cash is spread around various other banks. My boot was firmly on my foot.

So I cabbed it to Fleet Street to see the paled skin. It was a similar story and suddenly the arrogance was gone. It was when I went into the local branch of Boots (a bit like a posher version of Duane Reade) for my weekend's supply of protection that I stumbled across a paradox. A dichotomy. We are in a depression and copulating is the new hi-def black for 2009. So one would have thought the price of contraception would go up. But no. Unlike most pubs where a condom costs two quid, Boots are selling them for 42p each. A buy one, get one free offer. I am sure the pope must be livid. Still, if it stops STD's that cannot be a bad thing. Or is it a sign deflation is here already?

It was national no smoking day and the lady in the store told me they couldn't find any smokers. I told her next year would be busier because if condoms are so cheap, there will be plenty more post coital cigarettes being smoked.

CNBC
For years now I have selected a CNBC news clip. Today they changed their videos and didn't tell me so I have to get my IT geek to sort out the new code.

THE MOST SENSIBLE SOLUTION IS TO POLICE THE BANKS FROM THE BOTTOM UP

telegraph

Banks are still struggling under the weight of weak assets, as the anaemic economy takes its toll. Waiting for recovery before trying to fix regulatory failures which contributed to the catastrophe no longer seems sensible, given how long a wait it might be. Nor is it politically appropriate, as angry taxpayers seek reassurances that they won't be called on to prop up failing banks again.

That is a pity, because trying to come up with sensible reform while the financial system is in turmoil, institutions are weak and sentiment is running high makes an already difficult task even more fraught with danger. Politicians hoping to score points or do down rival financial centres are not best placed to find the right answers. Bankers are in no position to call the shots but it is vital for policy-makers to consult with them, and it's a lot easier not to bother when they are all in disgrace.

The obvious danger is a regulatory backlash that stifles risk-taking and innovation. That is a possibility. Worse still, it is not hard to imagine a regime which is costly to run, burdensome, bureaucratic and fails to protect taxpayers from banking stupidity.
Fintag says
It has taken decades to get to where we are now. Trying to change the way the financial landscape works in 6 months is like ripping up all legal precedent and starting again. Madness. The banking model works; its just the politicians cannot stop interfering. As the heart of capitalism it is like getting someone who can barely read a medical textbook to perform open heart surgery.

Changing the regulation is a bit late now. The balance sheets of the banks are shot because the Auditors never bothered doing their job properly and the cumbersome capital ratio reporting was abused by the banks.

In 1991 I sat at the Bank of England in secret (still wearing nappies too) watching small banks being looked after the big. It was done in secret. Nobody knew. It worked. France have already done this and their banks are safe.

Sometimes transparency is not always a good idea.

Personally I think this is more worrying:



independent says " King warns banking sector may need more bailouts "

JAPAN RECESSION DEEPENS AS FACTORY OUTPUT PLUNGES

bloomberg

Japan's manufacturers cut production by a record 10 percent in January and household spending plunged, adding to evidence that the economy in its worst recession in 60 years.

The month-on-month decline in factory output exceeded December's record decline of 9.8 percent, the Trade Ministry said today in Tokyo. Household spending fell 5.9 percent from a year earlier, the biggest drop in more than two years.
Fintag says
No wonder the Japanese hate the Americans. Look what they have done - again. Twice bitten is careless.

DARK DAY FOR DIVIDENDS

cityam

Income investors, already hit by a rush to cut dividends, suffered further distress today as the recession forced several businesses to either axe or dramatically reduce payouts.

Engineer GKN has decided to do away with the final dividend after announcing another 2,400 jobs will go in 2009. It sacked 2,800 last year.

The final payout was also scrapped at shopping centre owner Liberty, which admitted it is mulling a £350m rights issue, after a huge write-down caused a full year loss of more than £2.6bn.
Fintag says
No dividends is fine when interest rates are zero. Its the capital appreciation I am worried out. Best to stick with Junk Bonds for the time being.

BIGGER ROLE SOUGHT FOR ECB IN BANK SUPERVISION

times

The supervision of banks and insurance companies in Europe must be strengthened and an effective early warning system introduced to identify possible systemic risks, according to a report handed to the European Commission President yesterday.

The plan to restore health and confidence to the battered financial services sector was prepared over four months by a group chaired by Jacques de Larosière, a former Bank of France Governor and International Monetary Fund director.
Fintag says
After the EU watched the FSA become the lead regulator worldwide, its time has come. And I welcome this. Time to scrap the FSA and have a regulator that has consistent regulation across many countries.

When BCCI went down years ago, the critics said it was because there was no one regulator. We never learn do we.

I bet in 20 years time we will be having the same discussions.

If everything was perfect it would be very dull indeed.

UBS UNDER ATTACK OVER MADOFF FUND

icfa

UBS has been accused of "serious failure" by Luxembourg's financial regulator over its custodianship of a $1.4 billion fund that funnelled money into Bernard Madoff's alleged $50 billion 'Ponzi' scheme, writes the Financial Times.

The FT said the regulator ordered the bank to pay compensation, saying the "poor execution of its due-diligence obligations constitute a serious failure of its surveillance role as a depositary bank."
Fintag says
Ponzi schemes are everywhere. Someone pointed out to me yesterday that the Insurance industry is just one huge Ponzi scheme. They get a bad rap. AIG excepted, most insurance Ponzi schemes do very well. Even Buffet thinks so.

OBAMA PROPOSES BUDGET DEFICIT OF $1.75 TRILLION OR 12.3% OF GDP - - HIGHEST SINCE 1942

finfacts

President Barack Obama on Thursday delivered a $3.6 trillion budget for the fiscal year ending September 2010 and said it aims to "break from a troubled past," with expanded government activism, tax increases and spending cuts targeted at those he says profited from "an era of profound irresponsibility." The budget plan projects a federal deficit of $1.75 trillion for 2009, or 12.3% of the gross domestic product (GDP), a level not seen since 1942, the first year of World War II for the United States.
Fintag says
He must be very proud. I am deeply shocked.

TAX CUTS

new york times

As President Obama vowed during his campaign and again after the elections, the proposed budget would extend the Bush tax cuts for most households with taxable incomes below $250,000 but allow them to expire at the end of 2010 for families with incomes above that level.
Fintag says
When you are in a recession, people don't have income so tinkering with tax does very little as we have seen in the past. Confidence is what you need and it is in short supply.

NY HEDGE FUND CHARGED WITH FRAUD

hedge funds review

Hedge fund manager James Nicholson, founder and president of New York-based Westgate Capital Management, has been arrested and charged with bank and securities fraud.

He is accused of falsifying returns and creating a 'virtual' accounting company to certify financial statements that overstated assets by millions of dollars.
Fintag says
Another American Hedgie does it again. If you are an investor, forget the detailed due diligence. Ask these questions:

1. Do you have a well known independent Administrator?
2. Do you offer Managed Accounts?
3. Do you offer monthly or better liquidity with no silly 3 month notice?
4. Is the Prime Broker segregating the assets?
5. Is the fund audited by a top Accountancy firm?

If the answer is yes, then look at the performance and the volatility.

SMALL NEW STAR FUNDS EXTINGUISHED

financial times

New Star has closed two of its hedge funds after withdrawals of the crisis-hit fund manager's internal capital left them too small to survive.

The manager has shut its three-year-old Firefly fund after Harry Tyser, its manager, quit in December, as well as the six-year-old Apollo fund.

New Star was seized by its banks in December in a debt-for-equity swap and has agreed a sale to larger rival Henderson in a stunning fall from grace for the previously high-flying group.
Fintag says
Oh dear.

AS IF CITIGROUP HAS JUST BEEN SOOOOO SUCCESSFUL AT INVESTING IN HEDGE FUNDS: IT'S PROVIDING SEED MONEY (ALONG WITH BLACKSTONE) TO SOME FORMER EMPLOYEES FOR THEIR $200M STARTUP

wall street folly

Given their disastrous forays into investing in hedge funds not to mention their shaky finances, we wonder what Vikram and Co can possibly be thinking with their apparent decision to still help fund a $200 million hedge fund start-up, along with Blackstone, run by a couple of former Citigroup prop trading guys. Blackstone is sitting on piles of cash, and isn't on government life support, so we have no problem with them ponying up. But Citi? We wonder what Barney Frank et al. will have to say about that. We kind of think it's ridiculous. They need to get their financial house in order before staking others.
Fintag says
And why not eh? Another sad day in the world of Citi. So why hasn't the Bandit been fired yet?

GLOOMY LLOYDS GROUP RESULTS DUE

bbc

More bad news from the UK's banks is expected later when the Lloyds Banking Group posts its results for 2008.

Shares in Lloyds, which is 43% government-owned, fell sharply after a trading update revealed larger-than-expected losses at its subsidiary HBOS.
Fintag says
Oh dear. HBOS pulls down a decent bank. We warned you of course and many didn't listen:



GOODWIN STANDS FIRM £16M RBS PENSION

financial times

Sir Fred Goodwin's pension arrangements were at the centre of a war of words on Thursday night as the former chief executive of Royal Bank of Scotland traded allegations over the terms of his departure from the ailing bank with Lord Myners, the City minister.

The two men exchanged terse letters in public after it emerged that Sir Fred, who was forced out of RBS last October without a payoff, had started collecting a £693,000-a-year pension.
Fintag says
His pension is even bigger than I thought. I will leave the viral as is though. Given RBS is costing the UK tax payer hundreds of billions, it is rather irrelevant. The man will need around the house protection unless he leaves the country and lives in France where he will be feted as a hero.

ISDA CDS STANDARD MODEL LAUNCHED/

alea

As the CDS market evolves to trade single name contracts with a fixed coupon and upfront payment, it is critical for CDS investors to match the upfront payment amounts and to be able to translate upfront quotations to spread quotations and vice versa in a standardized manner. Implementing the ISDA CDS Standard Model and using the agreed standard input parameters will allow CDS market participants to tie out calculations and thus improve consistency and reduce operational differences downstream.
Fintag says
Having banged on about the CDS market being an unregulated nightmare of comic proportions, I am pleased to see it becoming regulated. Many people love the CDS market and it has replaced the Credit Rating Agencies. We applaud this. The market is so much better when it is run by its participants.

VOLCKER URGES 'STRONG' RESTRICTIONS ON HEDGE FUNDS

bloomberg

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker called on Congress to ensure financial-market stability through regulatory changes including “strong restrictions” on hedge funds, private equity and proprietary trading.

“We must not again leave the markets so vulnerable that a breakdown will again threaten the national and world economies,” Volcker, who heads President Barack Obama's Economic Recovery Advisory Board, said today in a hearing of the congressional Joint Economic Committee in Washington.
Fintag says
Hat tip to the fintagger who pointed out Volker's roadshow speech. He has strong opinions. I like that and I like the fact he can air them. Here are mine. The man is an idiot.


25 comments
stockemloanem said ...
Single stock futures are still a better concept than opportunity. Of course, your PBs would lose revenue. I'm sure they're more concerned with the liquidity of your positions than their bottom line.

27 Feb 09 - 08:13 gmt
LLoyd B said ...
so Boots next to GS in Fleet street, let me place a few calls

27 Feb 09 - 09:06 gmt
Moron said ...
absolutely milking it today....could this be any easier!!!

27 Feb 09 - 09:18 gmt
Jaa said ...
Moron.... looking at exit levels for my shorts... Investors Intelligence reports showing only 5% bulls.. this is too low a reading, I think we have more downside but taking some money off the table is prob wise.. any thoughts?

27 Feb 09 - 10:13 gmt
Moron said ...
seeing an interesting dichotomy...loads of stocks at/below 52 week lows....but many that are still significantly higher than november lows......avoid the ones that are already trashed....short the ones that still have some hope/froth in them....hard to see any rally catalyst here....santa claus and the obama excitement are now behind us....can't see what can drive a 6-10% rally....just oversold is not enuff...sometimes a 2% move can take market from oversold to overbought

27 Feb 09 - 10:17 gmt
Tradebot said ...
Goodwin shouldn't move to France, he should move to Holland. After all he has saved the Dutch payer £20+bn. They should welcome him with open arms and give him lifetime's supply of Edam.

27 Feb 09 - 10:32 gmt
Moron said ...
nothing else to do...time to play with arianeb again...has anyone had any luck with rebecca....do tell how:)))

27 Feb 09 - 10:41 gmt
Panta D - 3 said ...
Yes I Had...Moron if you recruit me in your HF I will explain how to do it :)

27 Feb 09 - 11:01 gmt
Tradebot said ...
err. Dutch taxpayer that is. Still , the financials suck and the equities suck. Moron is correct.

27 Feb 09 - 11:12 gmt
Moron said ...
now...to get rebecca to suck as well:)))

27 Feb 09 - 11:52 gmt
Panta D-3 said ...
Hey guys wht s up today..I should be depressed not you..come on make an effort, say something...

27 Feb 09 - 15:09 gmt
Moron said ...
just can't make it work with rebecca...need some help here:))

27 Feb 09 - 15:10 gmt
Panta D-3 said ...
@ Moron..I told you the deal is..you hire me...and I will tell you ;)

27 Feb 09 - 15:31 gmt
Panta D-3 said ...
and we will enjoy shorting the market togheter lol

27 Feb 09 - 15:33 gmt
Anonymous Bull said ...
Have to agree with Jaa, it's time to start closing your shorts and locking profits...

Moron have to disagree with you, there are some good value stks out there that are good buy and holds..

27 Feb 09 - 15:50 gmt
Moron said ...
buy and hold is dead mate!!

27 Feb 09 - 15:51 gmt
fitzcaraldo said ...
good night and good luck!

27 Feb 09 - 18:03 gmt
Super Mario said ...
What a crazy day...im off to celebrate with sake bombs!!

27 Feb 09 - 18:13 gmt
AthenaDelphi said ...
Its late in the UK so I'm probably writing this to no one. Feels like I'm sending it out into the waves of the ocean. We were told that those who make $250k (US) a year will not be able to deduct our mortgage interest payments any longer and our charitable giving which was a $1=$1 deduction will now be $1=28 cents. I will now make $249,990 and stop in August. Paint or write for the next 4 months and start again. So sad. No more bartending.

27 Feb 09 - 19:58 gmt
AthenaDelphi said ...
I see IberiaBank has had it with Obama's talk about capping capitalism. They're going to pay back TARP to get out from under the thumb of socialism. As long as there are free bankers, there are seeds of capitalism.
Good for IberiaBank. I wonder now if the US govt will let them go. Obama has become, in my mind, the Emperor of Star Wars and we are the rebels. IbariaBank is the first transport that is away!

27 Feb 09 - 20:03 gmt
Moron said ...
athena darling....shut up:)))

27 Feb 09 - 22:06 gmt
damiendamien said ...
Taxi to Galt's Gulch...

28 Feb 09 - 01:17 gmt
athenadelphi said ...
moron, what's your chart telling you for next s&p support levels?
love you too sweetie!

28 Feb 09 - 06:53 gmt
anonymous said ...
Re:Citi, dilution and the heavy volume on Friday, is Sheik W still in Citi or has he sold out his positions to the US gov't? I'd be really pissed if I were him.

28 Feb 09 - 17:30 gmt
anonymous said ...
This is it!

Game over!

No more hiding - crash time!

Good luck to all, see you on the other side!

28 Feb 09 - 18:08 gmt

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