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Fortune Telling
28JAN09:
Q1-09 DOW: 8900
Q2-09 DOW: 7250
Q3-09 DOW: 5810
Q4-09 DOW: 3960
CITI NATIONALIZED
OBAMA GETS SICK
27AUG09:
Mini Crash 21SEP09
Predicted correctly:
Bailout=Bonuses
Demise of Bear Stearns
Demise of Lehman Bros.
Demise of AIG
Subprime would cause problems
Date of 2007 crash
CRAs were to blame
G20 riots were a party
Northern Rock run
Northern Rock Nationalization
HBOS and RBS demise
UBS really was Useless


Paying the bills





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THE FINTAG NEWSLETTER
@ Wed 11 February 2009 : GMT

FINTAG COMMENT

2 trillion dollars.

I am starting to get worried. When Paulson tried to push thru his M-LEC and his TARP, we were all shocked at the numbers. But they were only hundreds of billions. Peanuts really. So how did Guiltytax (sorry I have trouble with the man's name) come up with such a round number for his new FSP? I will tell you how.

The man has a mac and recently bought a time machine. Storage used to be counted in the megabytes. Along came gigabytes and now terrabytes. Well terra sounds like trillion and I reckon he bought a couple of 1 terrabyte TM's and was sitting in his car and thought hey 2 trillion sounds a lot, surely that should do the trick. I mean that is a lot of dollars.

Of course it won't. It is like feeding a ...I am struggling here, you need to help out ...an animal that always eats and never gets fat ...anyway, it is all so out of the ordinary that if it doesn't work what happens next? 4 trillion? All debt cancelled? Nationalization of everything? This isn't funny. In years to come we will look back and realize that it was the most stupid thing that was done. If you have to spend money, spend it on investment that we can all benefit from like bridges and nightclubs.

The upshot of all this candy shop exuberance will be inflation. Printing money always brings about inflation and then rates will go up and the dollar will fall and so on and so forth and the USA will become the next Zimbabwe.

In times of economic stress, social unrest is not what the doctor order. It is becoming clear that tolerance and liberalism is being replaced by selfishness and narcissism (or is that the other way round?). Having fallen over the day before, yesterday I was dissed by an old risk manager who was my boss when I was a nipper. Perhaps it was because he was wrapped up in a dirty dog's blanket and I only gave him 50p for his appalling rendition of Valerie.

Talking of vagrants, everyday a band of fintaggers comment freely about the world around them and recently they have taken a turn to the dark side. The fear and loathing is seeping through the cracks of the internet and it isn't very nice. But then what do you expect when everyday one's livelihood is threatened and relaxation and chilling are so 2007?

US THROWS TRILLIONS AT CRISIS, BUT DEVIL IS IN DETAILS

earthtimes

The United States has now pledged as much as 3 trillion dollars to stabilize the economic and financial systems, but the sheer complexity of the crisis means that many details of the country's recovery plans are still uncertain. The new promises were part of a whirlwind day Tuesday in Washington - a culmination of President Barack Obama's early efforts to restore confidence in both the banking sector and wider economy.

Tuesday saw a series of government actions, legislative hearings and warnings from administration officials that the crisis could last years, despite the massive federal response.

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner laid out the broad strokes of an overhauled effort to address the financial crisis - the first set of blueprints offered by the Obama administration.
Fintag says
That's his name Geithner. It is German for "tax evader" I believe. Whatever. What concerns me is the man looks like a young Marlon Brando. When I mean young, I mean about 12 years old.

So Freddie and Fannie have absorbed USD200billion so far? Nice.

big barry says " About Bailout Nation . . . "

bloomberg says " Geithner Says Bank-Rescue Plans May Reach $2 Trillion "

HBOS WHISTLE-BLOWER: I WARNED FSA ABOUT BANK RISKS

telegraph

The senior HBOS executive who claims he was sacked for whistle-blowing has alleged he warned the Financial Services Authority about the bank's practices, but they failed to investigate his concerns.

Paul Moore, who was head of group regulatory risk at HBOS, said officials at the FSA, the regulator of all financial services providers in Britain, ignored his pleas because they wanted a "quiet life".

Speaking on BBC 2's Newsnight, he said: "I raised and reported all of this whistle-blowing claim that I had with the FSA but they did nothing either," he said.
Fintag says
Let us get one thing straight. HBOS and RBS were NOT real banks. They wanted to be Investment Banks and had no idea how to do it. The fact they were run by the Scottish Mafia is neither here or there, well it is, but they obviously hadn't a clue.

It is a bit like someone who discovers a brothel and is told to wear a condom. Repeatedly they ignore this risk protecting device and end up with some nasty itch. Risk managers are a pain but sometimes you should listen to what they say otherwise why bother employing them?

Still, as this debacle goes to the top of the FSA and the UK government, it is clear these greedy people were complicit and make incompetent bankers look less incompetent.

I trust the media will hound these incompetents until they are strung up with the rest of the people who should be strung up [Editor: And who are they?]

independent says " PM's adviser blamed for collapse of HBOS "

CONSISTENT PRICING METHODOLOGY NEEDED SAYS REPORT

hedge funds review

A process of implementing an 'enterprise pricing policy' as a consistent, repeatable methodology for valuing complex financial instruments and creating an audit trail from the front to back offices is outlined in an industry report released by NumeriX, the independent provider of advanced analytics for the derivative and structured products markets, and CMA, the credit information specialist. The paper discusses the importance of consistent pricing policies for the accurate valuation of complex derivatives and structured products.

The credit crunch has revealed the market inefficiencies and forced institutions to evaluate their participation in complex markets in terms of the valuation, model validation and overall risk management involved with structuring and managing portfolios. While organisations will continue to invest in software to develop better pricing strategies, there are several key requirements to meet. These include standards between trading desks, which support different asset classes, model validation for new products and trade capture from the front to back office.
Fintag says
Guess what. Pricing anomolies is what helps some make money and others lose money (UBS usually).

This utopia has been argued for years. With companies like SuperDerivatives trying to do something similar, this is old but new news.

INVESTORS AND ECONOMISTS RAIL AGAINST OBAMA BAILOUT PLAN

independent

Investors and economists condemned President Barack Obama's financial rescue plan yesterday for being light on details and ducking the vital questions still needing resolution before the global banking system can be restored to order.

Investors and economists condemned President Barack Obama's financial rescue plan yesterday for being light on details and ducking the vital questions still needing resolution before the global banking system can be restored to order.
Fintag says
I don't recall Bernanke or Paulson being that much into detail so why should Marlon be the same? Don't forget New York is bankrupt? Actually, I think TFG looks more like Forrest Gump?

Given he was behind shafting Lehman and causing this current mess, I am starting to have doubts that TFG will be able to save Boring Obama. [Editor: What is all this code speak?]

option armeggedon says " Geithner pisses off markets "

UK UNEMPLOYED MAY TOP TWO MILLION

bbc

The number of jobless people in the UK is expected to rise above two million for the first time since 1997 when figures are published later.

Between September and November 2008 unemployment rose to 1.92 million, up 131,000 from the previous three months.
Fintag says
Statistics. I am in Starbucks writing this and I am the only person who has a job. How do I know this? I am in my dressing gown and everyone else is dressed up ready for job interviews.

HEDGE FUND FRAUDSTER'S GIRLFRIEND PLEADS GUILTY TO HELPING HIM RUN

finalternatives

The girlfriend of convicted hedge fund fraudster Samuel Israel has pleaded guilty to helping him skip bail.

Debra Ryan changed her plea in the case this morning. She told U.S. District Judge Kenneth Karas that Israel had woke her up the night before he was to report to prison in June and pleaded for her help. Ryan obliged him, helping him pack the recreational vehicle in which Israel lived for his three weeks on the lam.
Fintag says
So much for this cartoon then:



GOLDMAN TRIES TO BE FRUGAL, BUT...

portfolio

Saving money evidently is harder than making it, at least when you're Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

The famously successful investment bank -- er, bank holding company -- chose to relocate a Technology and Internet Conference from Mandalay Bay Las Vegas to a San Francisco Marriott in a move to burnish its image as a thrifty recipient of heaps of TARP money.

The only problem is that Goldman doesn't know if it will save money in making the change -- or wind up spending more because of it. A Mandalay Bay employee who requested anonymity told the Associated Press that the cancellation fee to move the February 25-27 conference was $600,000.
Fintag says
Where have all the fruit baskets gone?

Here is a picture of some Goldman loo paper. No wonder most Goldmaners walk funny:



Sorry, here is the right picture:



AMARANTH, PERELLA WERE VICTIMS OF DREIER'S FRAUD, U.S. SAYS

bloomberg

The victims of Marc Dreier, the New York lawyer charged in a $400 million fraud, included Amaranth Group Inc., Perella Weinberg Partners and Blackstone Group LP's GSO Capital Partners, U.S. prosecutors said.

Government lawyers identified the firms in a court filing in New York on Feb. 9 as three of the 20 institutions they claim are victims of Dreier's thefts. Prosecutors didn't disclose how much it alleges each of the companies lost.
Fintag says
Imagine that. Amaranth a victim of a fraudster ....

ACKMAN APOLOGIZES FOR 'DREADFUL' LOSSES IN TARGET FUND

finalternatives

“In my effort to get last week's letter out promptly, I neglected to apologize,” Ackman wrote in a letter dated Sunday, a copy of which was obtained by The Wall Street Journal. “I am deeply disappointed by PSIV's dreadful performance and I apologize profusely for the fund's results to date.”

Those results have been every bit the “disaster” he described to the Journal on Sunday. The fund—which invests exclusively in the securities of retailer Target Corp.—plummeted more than 40% last month, after losing some 68% last year.
Fintag says
Oops. He got MBIA right and everything else wrong.




41 comments
Panta Brasilero said ...
Good Morning everybody...



11 Feb 09 - 07:57 gmt
MsR said ...
Morning Panta..Lots of good looking Italians and Brazilians here in N1 last night. Very pleasant

11 Feb 09 - 08:12 gmt
Hanky Paulson said ...
Timmy G is bucking for the Nobel Prize. He hopes to be the first man to fill a black hole with money. Ben tried it and failed. I tried it ... Tim is the new guy lets hope he does better. I don't think there will be inflation till people with jobs get raises. I hear that's not going to happen anytime soon. But you don't hear much in the Caymans.

11 Feb 09 - 08:12 gmt
AthenaDelphi said ...
I'd date Tim Geithner - if only I could get past his batman ears. I would be suspicious, if while at dinner, he got a message in the clouds from a beam of light, and claimed that he had to leave to go fix the banking system. Who is he trying to kid? And he left me to pay the tab for dinner to boot.
Figures!

11 Feb 09 - 08:25 gmt
anonymous said ...
Hey Fin - you didn't mention Fortress admitting it cut its workforce by 11% last month. The company got rid of 100 people - reducing its staff from 900 to 800. Funny thing is that in 2008, they hired 200 people so its really 50% of those that got laid off.

Damned statistics.


11 Feb 09 - 08:30 gmt
AthenaDelphi said ...
Even the messy 'loo' looks better then the hole in the ground in East Germany when I was over there during college. Being female and having to do bodily functions over a hole with 1 sheet of itchy paper the lady gives you outside for a small 'donation' was a horrible experience. I've hence had upgrades done to my circulatory waste system thanks to the Japanese robotics division. I'm now ready for space travel!



11 Feb 09 - 08:34 gmt
AthenaDelphi said ...
I have buyers remorse. I'd like to return my current president that I voted for and chose the other old guy who wouldn't pick dried up old Keynesian's from off the shelf, dust them off, plump them up and put them into positions of power. You should have played Squawk Box (CNBC) with Joe Kernan vs. Carl Quintanilla from yesterday AM. Joe was right and Carl was an angry Obama-ite. Delightful theater.

11 Feb 09 - 08:42 gmt
AthenaDelphi said ...
Where is moron? He should have made lots of money yesterday playing in the US's sandbox.

11 Feb 09 - 08:45 gmt
Panta said ...
Hey MsR I had 2 defeats on 2 games in just 3 days...First rugby then football...I defy anyonelse to have a better score...The best thing was a poor man dinner in an Italian restaurant in Islington that we had after the match...

11 Feb 09 - 08:47 gmt
anonymous said ...
Is Spain really going to leave the EU and the ECB? Or are they just threatening to get the rates down?

11 Feb 09 - 08:52 gmt
Alpha60 said ...
Why the GS bashing today fin? If i remember correctly the goldman toilets were designed more like fort knox with the heavy metal doors...Though i do wonder if the sweet trolley and breakfast guy still makes the rounds on the trading floor?

11 Feb 09 - 08:56 gmt
AthenaDelphi said ...
Someone did a quick calculation on CNBC World yesterday: If 1 man had spent $1million dollars a day since the time of Christ's birth, we wouldn't be at $1trillion dollars yet. Taxcheater guy wants 2-4 trillion.

11 Feb 09 - 08:58 gmt
anonymous said ...
how can you inject 2 trillion in to the system with out creating hyper-inflation?

11 Feb 09 - 09:11 gmt
Mr. Bean said ...
Where is Harry Potter then you need his magic?! ugh...

Even Sooty would help.

11 Feb 09 - 09:31 gmt
Joe Biden said ...
Churchill said, "The Americans always do the right thing, but only after exhausting all the alternatives first."

We'll get it right in a couple of years with rev. 5.0. you can't rush beginners up the learning curve.

11 Feb 09 - 09:33 gmt
MsR said ...
@Alpha 60: I imagine the GS toilets would have CCTV in them to make sure staffers didn't linger

11 Feb 09 - 09:36 gmt
Moron said ...
i think the world is round.... dribble dribble dribble:))

11 Feb 09 - 09:38 gmt
anonymous said ...
Brando was an animal that ate and ate.. in his last film he played a washed up fat crook who died without his trousers on....

11 Feb 09 - 09:49 gmt
Moron said ...
hearing ppl call for a further rally next week...just can't see it!

11 Feb 09 - 09:54 gmt
Panta said ...
Anyone going this evening at the london business school..there is an HF conference....Fin will you go...???

11 Feb 09 - 10:19 gmt
Latinlanguageteacher said ...
Fin, it s not "terrabytes" but "terabytes" . Terra = Earth in Spanish or Italian or Portuguese.

11 Feb 09 - 10:36 gmt
Alpha60 said ...
@MsR funny u mention that, they did use to have a shoepolish box in there which suspiciously never got used...And I would always bump into the partner on our floor in the toilets near this shoepolish box...Either he he loved polishing his shoes or was cheking the cctv!!

11 Feb 09 - 10:36 gmt
finfaq said ...
Talking of vagrants, everyday a band of fintaggers comment freely about the world around them and recently they have taken a turn to the dark side. The fear and loathing is seeping through the cracks of the internet and it isn't very nice.

no comments yet.
WHY?

11 Feb 09 - 11:30 gmt
Moron said ...
fear and loathing is always there...we just learn to turn a blind eye...over time we learn to feel for the ppl who are reduced to bitterness and misery....life isn't all black and white unfortunately...

11 Feb 09 - 11:31 gmt
MsR said ...
@finfaq: I suspect it is a reference to the animosity exhibited on the blog yesterday where clearly some people are forgetting to live and let live. In between the good natured joshing there was some completely unwarranted nastiness. As I said last night, disagree over strategies but why be personal about it? The net affords a disguise for gutless wonders.



11 Feb 09 - 11:37 gmt
finfaq said ...
Maybe the anti-spamming word should be harder to spell to make the gutless wonders think twice.

11 Feb 09 - 12:00 gmt
Panta said ...
@ Moron: Jim rogers says he's renewing the bets that US stocks will fall.
Ho my god shall we review our strategies?...usually when the guy speaks the market do the the opposite :)

11 Feb 09 - 12:06 gmt
Moron said ...
nope....he is right.....ppl need to get their heads out of the sand a little bit....the worst of this crisis is ahead of us....still seeing unrealistic earnings multiples on unrealistic earnings estimates even 2-3 years out for a number of stocks particularly small caps where these anomalies are usually most startling......stocks are still way overvalued!!

11 Feb 09 - 12:09 gmt
Panta said ...
Yep of course not..Sometimes I feel so frustrated....I really don't know for how long will I stay in the business...I can't see the light at the end of the tunnel...The mess is so huge that it will take years to recover..So what s all about...I should be happy to still have a job...but in bankrupted London it is hard right know to stay sharp, focus...relying on solid nerves...I am tired...probably i should go to bed....


11 Feb 09 - 12:29 gmt
Moron said ...
u have to be a bit harder mate....life is not meant to be easy....u wanna win...then fight for it!!

11 Feb 09 - 12:31 gmt
Panta said ...
As I got nothing to do...I am re-watching all Hugh Hendry Videos...since 2007....The more I listen to him the more I think is a real genius...(of course not as Fin :))

11 Feb 09 - 13:31 gmt
anonymous said ...
Most unimpressed with GS loopaper. I remember in the Inland Revenue 20+ years ago we had good old hard loopaper with "Property of HM Government" printed on each segment.

11 Feb 09 - 13:43 gmt
Top Cat said ...
Perhaps all bank CEOs and chairman should be forced to use sandpaper as toilet paper for a year.

11 Feb 09 - 13:58 gmt
Moron said ...
i find it fascinating that us traders still have the audacity to even look for a bounce here....hope springs eternal.....

11 Feb 09 - 15:00 gmt
Osiris (aka not a martian) said ...
its easy to look for bounces when you have balls :D although its more like a slinky
bleh - oscillators

11 Feb 09 - 15:53 gmt
MsR said ...
@Panta I doubt if you're that old in which case this is the time to think about what else you can do, not when you don't have a job which is a mistake most people make. If you can't see the light then it's no good for you.

11 Feb 09 - 16:58 gmt
Super Mario said ...
@Panta start trading our beloved index...It is so opaque and ridden with insiders that always opps to arb and make cash...Also we were robbed of a good goal last night, which would have opened the scoring, stupid referee!

11 Feb 09 - 17:37 gmt
crispin o said ...
fidelity fiduciary bank. Great name for a new venture, mr taggit.

What do you get if you feed the birds? Fat birds.

11 Feb 09 - 19:38 gmt
ypqhjo said ...
jfqvdosmdlbnhcwwwcksbtpoulyful

11 Feb 09 - 23:29 gmt
damiendamien said ...
@Panta

Re Hendry, I you can get them have a read at his letters to investors. Very good, especially in the years he didn't make huge returns. Pretty consistant in his thinking.

12 Feb 09 - 01:15 gmt
Moron said ...
Okay, I think I have said enough now

I'm off for a long holiday

Miss me!

12 Feb 09 - 06:01 gmt

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