28JAN09:
Q1-09 DOW: 8900
Q2-09 DOW: 7250
Q3-09 DOW: 5810
Q4-09 DOW: 3960
CITI NATIONALIZED
OBAMA GETS SICK 27AUG09:
Mini Crash 21SEP09 Predicted correctly:
Bailout=Bonuses
Demise of Bear Stearns
Demise of Lehman Bros.
Demise of AIG
Subprime would cause problems
Date of 2007 crash
CRAs were to blame
G20 riots were a party
Northern Rock run
Northern Rock Nationalization
HBOS and RBS demise
UBS really was Useless
If I fall over and cut my knee, my first reaction is to make sure the wound is fixed. Then I will reassess why I fell over and learn from my mistakes. In today's society I would also find out who made the paving stones and sue them for not having a product fit for purpose, I would sue my tailor for not providing knee pads in my trousers, I would shout at the people walking on the pavement for being in the way and finally I would write about my frustrations and blame everyone else for my predicament.
I didn't tell you I was drunk (on debt) and had left my contact lenses out. But that doesn't matter, for blamers and blamees are the new order of a world full of irresponsible people.
If I were a CEO being hassled for bonuses I would say to my sneering civil servant, "Just because you are suffering from envy and wish you could travel by Private Jet and have your every needs massaged." Talking of which didn't our favourite Hollywood Hedgie Mr Busson have to travel at the back of the plane on his way back from DAVOS? Even the most luducrious hedgie can be humbled sometime. I bet he wasn't blaming anyone except himself [Editor: I am not so sure]
With bankers in fear of civil servants, an Economic Adviser telling us to throw those shoes away, get those finger nails grubby and learn to live off Gin, the next few years will be ones of total responsibility because blaming won't get you the next meal.
Independence and fitness are the key to 2009 and Charles Dickens is the new messiah.
RBS AND HBOS EXECUTIVES TO APOLOGISE FOR COLLAPSE OF BANKS
The bankers who led Royal Bank of Scotland and HBOS to the brink of collapse will offer a public apology today.
But amid the furore over bankers' bonuses, they will also seek to point out that they have personally been “punished for failure”, losing millions of pounds because of the meltdown in their banks' share prices.
Sir Fred Goodwin and Sir Tom McKillop, respectively the former chief executive and chairman of RBS, will express their regrets at a meeting of the Treasury Select Committee. Their expressions of remorse will be echoed by Andy Hornby, the former chief executive of HBOS. and Lord Stevenson of Coddenham, its former chairman.
Fintag says This must the Scottish way of doing things. Still, the old adage that the Scots are tights arses is truly dead. The Scots are spend thrifts chavs. Oh, and don't forget I am partially Scottish so can criticise my own race (Edinburgh variety so not really Scottish although I had a great Uncle who helped keep the Whisky industry solvent in Glasgow and made Billy Connelly look like a dullard). You have seen Taggart the TV cop show; like a tartan I am the Taggit variation.
times says " Labour and Gordon Brown in poll wipeout despite economy hopes "
ED BALLS: MINISTER FEARS RISE OF FASCISM AMID ECONOMIC GLOOM
Ed Balls, the Children's and Schools Secretary, said the downturn was likely to be the most serious for 100 years, and his comments appeared to raise the prospect of a return to the Far Right politics of the 1930s and the rise of Facism.
His warning, in a speech to activists at the weekend, came after a trade union baron warned that far right parties were trying to hijack the campaign for "British jobs for British workers".
Fintag says So what you gonna do about it? Here is a man steering the great ship Brown and now he tells us the steering wheel was broken and the ship is going to crash into the France. So much for keeping a stiff upper lip.
We need more happy people, inspirational and optimistic people, people who make us laugh and know when to be down and when to be up [Editor: Well that counts you out then].
finfacts says " Ireland and Japan; the Human Cost of broken political systems"
With an annual trade deficit of $700 billion, a National Debt that will surpass $12 trillion next year, a banking system that will need $2 trillion of additional capital, foreigners owning $3 trillion of our debt, zero percent interest rates and a weakening currency, something has to give. The Federal Reserve will do anything to defeat deflation. Deflation is fatal to a debt-ridden society. There will be many more stimulus packages after this one fails. Eventually, we will reach a tipping point where too much debt will result in a hyperinflationary crash. It may be in two years or ten years. No one knows. Ben Bernanke, Timothy Geithner, and Barrack Obama also don't know. It will catch us all off-guard, just like the current crisis caught them off-guard. Turning Japanese would be a best case scenario for the U.S.
Fintag says Funny how nearly 3 years ago I was telling you the USA was heading the way of Japan.
So why aren't I on TV lauding it up? [Editor: Arrogance perhaps?]
'DEEPER' RECESSION WILL LEAD TO FINANCIAL CRIME WAVE
The recession may be "deeper and more prolonged than expected", with continuing pressure on a weakened banking sector, the housing market and an upsurge in fraud to look forward to over the coming months, according to the latest review of conditions by the Financial Services Authority.
Fintag says Uh? I thought the FSA were regulators not political commentators? Of course they are trying to deflect blame from their useless regulation over the last 10 years.
Next time you bump into an FSA'er ask them what Tier 1 Capital is for ...
Barclays announced a top-level review of its bonus structure on Monday, amid a growing political clamour in Britain over rewards paid to bankers in the midst of the credit crunch.
Gordon Brown, British prime minister, said he was “angry” that Royal Bank of Scotland - a part-nationalised bank - was preparing to pay out £1bn ($1.5bn) in bonuses. Other ministers urged bankers to forgo their rewards.
The start of the bank bonus season has provoked a wave of anger towards bankers in Britain. On Tuesday the former bosses of RBS and HBOS will be grilled by MPs on how they led their institutions to the edge of collapse.
Fintag says It was so obvious what Bobby Geezer was up to. He has put a new order in for a large yacht and was concerned he wouldn't get his deserved bonus so sold out to the Arabs. A smart short term move but the UK has lost a crown jewel and nobody cares.
But then do we still believe anything these banks say?
Quantitative investment managers suffered a net outflow of $9.3bn in the third quarter last year as they fled the financial sector in favour of IT and materials stocks. The activities of quant funds, which use statistical models designed to identify patterns in financial markets, are increasingly important because they account for such huge trading volumes.
Fintag says And much of this was mine. But it will come back. Hopefully. I mean what does an ex Hedgie do?
I used to have no time for the idea that economists never agree, so economics must be a bogus science and a waste of time. Of course economists disagree, I would say. Economics is difficult, and by its nature cannot be as clear-cut as the physical sciences. But it strives to meet the most rigorous standards of evidence-gathering and scientific method. As long as it remains aware of its own limits, one should not mock the discipline for aiming high.
Economists are right to disagree. This does not stop them improving public policy or raising the standard of discussion inside and outside the profession. Judge them by those standards, I used to say.
Fintag says Absolutely. I think we can add that many journalists are also damaging the credibility of economics. Having spent 5 years at college studying economics, it isn't like media studies where you can read wikipedia and become an expert over night. Not that the current batch of academics are helping - its all about scoring points. Roubini ...what a shower.
The Anglo-Saxon model of supervision and regulation of the financial system has failed, Nouriel Roubini, chairman of RGE Monitor and professor of economics at New York University, told the Financial Times on Monday.
Answering questions from FT.com readers, Prof Roubini, who is widely credited with having predicted the current financial crisis, said the supervisory system “relied on self-regulation that, in effect, meant no regulation; on market discipline that does not exist when there is euphoria and irrational exuberance; on internal risk management models that fail because - as a former chief executive of Citi put it - when the music is playing you gotta stand up and dance.”
Fintag says Oi, Roubini. Check this chart out ...I got the top the market and you didn't. There is always a bust after a boom so here is my prediction: There will be another mother of all booms in about 8 years time when debt is free and we all go mad once more. So what do you think of that Roobey?
EDHEC REPORT HIGHLIGHTS MADOFF RED FLAGS THAT SHOULD HAVE BEEN WARNING SIGNALS
The list of due diligence red flags in Bernard Madoff's operations was so long and unsettling that it should have deterred potential investors, according to a paper from the Edhec Risk and Asset Management Research Centre.
In the report, Madoff: A Riot of Red Flags, authors François-Serge Lhabitant and Greg Gregoriou highlight some of the salient operational features common to best-of-breed hedge funds - features that were clearly missing from Madoff's operations.
Fintag says I never trust Financial people who wear baseball caps.
finalternatives says " Madoff Settles With SEC, Fine To Be Determined Later "
Antony Worrall Thompson has said he was forced to close four restaurants despite knowing "we would have been strong again by December".
The celebrity chef confirmed that AWT Restaurants Ltd went into administration on Friday.
"We went to the banks and said with a cashflow forecast we're going to be in trouble in January, February, March and April. They said fine, come back with some figures.
"We did. We agreed to sell two of the restaurants. We agreed to do £120,000 worth of cutbacks. But all that takes time. It takes time to sell a restaurant. It takes time and money to make people redundant. They were not prepared to help."
Fintag says Goodbye to his excellent puddings ...
77 comments
the prophet said ...
anthony worral thompson 0 little chef popham 1
you'll know its the bottom for economies and markets when Benjy's reopens (for those tuning in from abroad, a chain of dirt cheap sandwich shops that closed down at the height of the bull marche, when we were all spending £12 on sushi every lunchtime)
Today is the day...The market will turn red...and maybe I am going to turn brazilian after tonite match at the Emirates...
10 Feb 09 - 08:26 gmt
Moron said ...
Dribble dribble dribble
10 Feb 09 - 08:32 gmt
fitzcaraldo said ...
soup kitchens are the new black...a good meal does not have to cost a lot
10 Feb 09 - 08:49 gmt
Moron said ...
so markets already down for the week.....that idiot Moron just might be right again....the fool:)))
10 Feb 09 - 09:11 gmt
MsR said ...
That pudding looks like it was served in an ashtray.
10 Feb 09 - 09:14 gmt
Jaa said ...
Let's just get this bailout bullshit out of the way....
10 Feb 09 - 09:26 gmt
Tradebot said ...
Yes, Baseball caps are evil. Beards too.
10 Feb 09 - 09:31 gmt
Moron said ...
where is bitter anon today....i miss his poison:)
10 Feb 09 - 09:50 gmt
Jaa said ...
Johhn "chippy" Mcfall on the wires... Jock on Jock...
10 Feb 09 - 09:53 gmt
Pantao Meravigliao said ...
Hey Fin so you predicted the financial meltdown thanks to astrology? Can you predict my love horoscope for 2009 I am Saggittarius...
Ps Have you got any links with Nostradamus..??? :)
10 Feb 09 - 09:59 gmt
Moron said ...
jim rogers on cnbc.com saying this rescue will only make things a lot worse....so what happened to all the clowns who believed in the return of optimism.....a u shaped recovery out of the greatest financial crisis in generations.....its a great word ... optimism.....ignorance is bliss!!
10 Feb 09 - 10:08 gmt
Panta said ...
@ Moron: hey mate we know what is going to happen...let the bulls burn their fingers....
10 Feb 09 - 10:14 gmt
AthenaDelphi said ...
ED BALLS: MINISTER FEARS RISE OF FASCISM AMID ECONOMIC GLOOM
I was just asking my husband why France chose a short Corsican and why the Germans chose a short man with a bad mustache to lead them at different times of history.
His response: france was in the crapper due to the revolution. germany was in the crapper due to france.
I blame france,........ still
10 Feb 09 - 10:36 gmt
anonymous said ...
Guess you gotta get your directional call right eventually Moron...but this is actually a good vol arbing opportunity
10 Feb 09 - 10:37 gmt
AthenaDelphi said ...
@moron: i watched jim rogers and even he doesn't know where to put his money anymore without it losing value. that's scary in and of itself. then we had the theater of the absurd last night with O's first press conference. to a 'yes' or 'no' question he talks for 10 minutes without giving either. We're in trouble. Don't invest in america.
10 Feb 09 - 10:39 gmt
Moron said ...
right eventually....vol arbing opportunity.....whom r u kidding mate....do u want a list of stocks that are still at their bear market lows? this mickey mouse rally of urs affected just a few names....and was doomed from day one....wake up!!
10 Feb 09 - 10:39 gmt
AthenaDelphi said ...
i don't know how in reality that the dow jones is where its at. it must be manipulation through one of the puppet banks such as GS or BofA that's keeping the levels here. there's no rationality in these levels. China needs to pull the plug on buying US treasuries. Rogers is right. 3% on a 10 year is irrational.
10 Feb 09 - 10:43 gmt
AthenaDelphi said ...
The market cap of Citigroup(C), JP Morgan Chase(JPM), and Bank of America (BAC) combined is $158 billion, yet the Geithner program is going to provide an initial $250 billion to $500 billion (with more insanity coming) just to deal with "soured mortgage-related assets".
I'm going to bed now. Have a good day.
10 Feb 09 - 10:47 gmt
anonymous said ...
Fin - You spoke about merger arb y/day...any news views on the EA-Disney rumors..
@Panta I see your boys at unicredit are jumping into bed with gaddafi and the other AK wielding maniacs
10 Feb 09 - 11:05 gmt
Panta said ...
They are not my mates I always said in this blog Italian stock Market is crap...would never touch at it....
10 Feb 09 - 11:21 gmt
stock8 said ...
stop fiddling with ed balls
10 Feb 09 - 11:41 gmt
Moron said ...
need some Moron bashing to get over the boredom...where is my mate bitter anon:))
10 Feb 09 - 12:20 gmt
anonymous said ...
looks like the market is recovering here :))))
10 Feb 09 - 13:20 gmt
Panta said ...
As we say in italy We'll see the the horses rankings on the finish line... (I cavalli si vedono all'arrivo) :)))))
10 Feb 09 - 13:23 gmt
anonymous said ...
The fade seems to be losing steam...dow futs down only around 28 points and most other mkts recovering...you still confident Moron??
10 Feb 09 - 13:24 gmt
Moron said ...
yup....seeing all the signs...willing to stake my reputation on this call:))
10 Feb 09 - 13:25 gmt
Panta said ...
@ Moron..Do you have a private email?... @ Anyonelse...It 's all yours...
10 Feb 09 - 13:33 gmt
anonymous said ...
you have no 'reputation', you laughable prat
10 Feb 09 - 13:41 gmt
Moron said ...
bitter anon is back!!...crawled right out of the woodwork!
10 Feb 09 - 14:08 gmt
13:45 said ...
hahah panta wants to ask moron for a job!!!
10 Feb 09 - 14:46 gmt
Moron said ...
so whats so funny abt that?
10 Feb 09 - 15:07 gmt
Panta said ...
No thanks hopfully I still got mine...Instead I need a keeper for my garden dwarfs...you can send me your CV....:)
10 Feb 09 - 15:07 gmt
anonymous said ...
"I need a keeper for my garden dwarfs"...more cutting edge italian 'humour'
10 Feb 09 - 15:08 gmt
Panta the illiterate said ...
...You can't understand freestyle....I wish I was as smart as you.... You can always send me your CV anyway...
10 Feb 09 - 15:19 gmt
13:45 said ...
03/02/09 at 12:40 "As Panta securities is officially broken and filling for chapter eleven...I officialy offers my services to anyone who is interested in..."
Nothing funny about that moron! dead weight Italian
10 Feb 09 - 15:27 gmt
Panta said ...
I see...you didn't understand...I will be more explicit..gimme some orders please...Yeah I am broken cause all my clients are..but I am still sitting at the trading desk.. I don't konw for how long but..still here.. It cost you only 5 bps...Understand????
10 Feb 09 - 15:34 gmt
Panta said ...
by the way you can easly find me on bloomberg...and you will still see I beautiful green light nex to my name...:)
10 Feb 09 - 15:35 gmt
Panta said ...
Ps now who really is the dead weight????
10 Feb 09 - 15:36 gmt
13:45 said ...
wow i hit a nerve, sorry old boy we are all pretty sensitive right now. I see something that doesn't add up i jump on it.
10 Feb 09 - 15:46 gmt
Panta said ...
lol...I got to go back to school then.... my english is so bad..i am really sorry about it...but if you will ever meet me you would find me quite funny....
10 Feb 09 - 15:51 gmt
anonymous said ...
i think this is the mistake you are making; you really aren't funny at all, stop trying and you may become less tooth-achingly annoying
10 Feb 09 - 15:58 gmt
Ppsec said ...
@ Anon 15:51..Poor panta, why all this bitterness today?
10 Feb 09 - 16:04 gmt
Moron said ...
guys....get ready for a very harsh fade.....hold on to your hats!!
10 Feb 09 - 16:04 gmt
anonymous said ...
Moron keep praying...it might actually happen...monkeys and dartboards and all that.
10 Feb 09 - 16:08 gmt
Moron said ...
anon....i eat cockroaches like u for breakfast mate!
tnx Ppsec..i think the guy is just nervous. The poor brorker was right and he was long..and he just can't bear it...It is all yours....
10 Feb 09 - 16:11 gmt
Super Mario said ...
Why so anti Panta today...He is quite funny and interesting poster on this blog...btw the fade seems to have started...seeing a lot of red on my screens
10 Feb 09 - 16:12 gmt
anonymous said ...
an unfunny italian racist defends an unfunny italian racist
10 Feb 09 - 16:13 gmt
Moron said ...
this site needs to morph into the european version of realmoney.com.....:))....think about it!
10 Feb 09 - 16:17 gmt
Ppsec said ...
@8:24 Panta said ... Today is the day...The market will turn red...and maybe I am going to turn brazilian after tonite match at the Emirates...
We must recognise it
10 Feb 09 - 16:18 gmt
Moron said ...
i think the markets are on a rather downward sloping trajectory at the moment:))
10 Feb 09 - 16:29 gmt
anonymous said ...
once again moron mistaking a smaller loss for an actual trading profit
10 Feb 09 - 16:34 gmt
Moron said ...
as i said mate....cockroaches like u for breakfast:))
10 Feb 09 - 16:35 gmt
Panta said ...
Morituri te salutant!!!
10 Feb 09 - 16:38 gmt
Anonymous said ...
Regulation is here to stay, you so called bankers and hedgies, left at your own devices have proven to be catastrophically nincompoops!!!
10 Feb 09 - 16:47 gmt
Alpha60 said ...
Bit of a grim statement Panta...can't be that bad pal.
@anon 16:47 think its the I-bankers you shd be blaming for ths mess not the hedgies. Regulation has never worked and never will, ppl always find a way to circumvent red tape.
10 Feb 09 - 17:13 gmt
Moron said ...
the rescue package fails....obama says 'i failed', stocks having seen their highs for the year go on to make a new low....and mrs obama nags her poor hapless husband for the rest of his term!!
10 Feb 09 - 17:46 gmt
fred goodwin said ...
Then the tape needs to become a wall.
10 Feb 09 - 17:49 gmt
anonymous said ...
Moron - you are silent on up days. Irritatingly euphoric on down days. Can't even your puny mind work out you will be right approximately one half of the time? You merely celebrate your success and hide your failures - ever considered being a management consultant?? So just shut up. I doubt you even have a real job at a hedge fund, you're probably product control at a bank, and like living your alter ego here. Few others enjoy it
10 Feb 09 - 18:11 gmt
Moron said ...
wow mate....u sound happy:)
10 Feb 09 - 18:14 gmt
Moron said ...
as for celebrating my successes and hiding failures and all that....u know this business doesn't allow for that....don't wanna get into an arguement....just ... don't walk into a brick wall headlong like u did today and then take out ur frustration on others....
10 Feb 09 - 18:30 gmt
FINRAed said ...
Gasping for straws now, aren't you imitators? This is a fantastic market for traders who know what they are doing. It merely separates the "wheat from the chaff"; "the real men from the boys"....
10 Feb 09 - 18:36 gmt
anonymous said ...
Moron - you mistook me for Twisted Anon, I am not him. Just someone who loves this blog, used to like the comments that were occasional insightful, but your comments which are mostly tut drove away useful commentators of the past
10 Feb 09 - 18:51 gmt
Moron said ...
Ok then i will keep my opinions to myself no problem
10 Feb 09 - 18:56 gmt
Rocco Siffredi said ...
I love today's price action, it reminds me of a movie called "A.s Destruction"
10 Feb 09 - 18:58 gmt
Taleb An said ...
Nouriel Roubini should really work on his accent
10 Feb 09 - 18:59 gmt
Anonymous said ...
Hedgies, Bankers, PE, Traders, Oh! such nomenclatures. And the world was sleeping awake scared of weapons of mass destruction. While such WMD were being manufactured around wall st and Canary Wharf by the so called quants armed with excel sheet....well, Obama, Brown, Sarkozy and Merckle are "trimming the hedges" ....can't blame them really!!
10 Feb 09 - 19:06 gmt
MsR said ...
You know I'm not getting this angst anon. It's not your blog..it's a place for comments. And Moron has as much right to make them as you do. Look for all we know you're sixteen year old kids just playing at it on your PCs. All this labelling and name calling is just unnecessary. Disagree over strategies. But be cool about it.
10 Feb 09 - 21:36 gmt
Moron said ...
Bravo ms R i wasnt going anywhere anyway but thank u for standing up for me this industry is full of people who take themselves too seriously unfortunately
10 Feb 09 - 22:05 gmt
Silent but reading... said ...
Moron, for what it's worth, I enjoy reading this blog and the comments posted here and you are one of the more interesting commentators...
10 Feb 09 - 22:29 gmt
Moron said ...
thanks for the support...as I said...this idiot is not going anywhere:))
10 Feb 09 - 22:39 gmt
Jaa said ...
Keep on dribbling... when the time comes to buy I am sure the dribbling idiot will first be to call it... may be some time though folks...
10 Feb 09 - 23:19 gmt
donho said ...
its in the bible somewhere; thou canst not polish a turd.
11 Feb 09 - 00:06 gmt
anonymous said ...
i see the dow settled at a pianistically impossible poker hand