28JAN09:
Q1-09 DOW: 8900
Q2-09 DOW: 7250
Q3-09 DOW: 5810
Q4-09 DOW: 3960
CITI NATIONALIZED
OBAMA GETS SICK 27AUG09:
Mini Crash 21SEP09 Predicted correctly:
Bailout=Bonuses
Demise of Bear Stearns
Demise of Lehman Bros.
Demise of AIG
Subprime would cause problems
Date of 2007 crash
CRAs were to blame
G20 riots were a party
Northern Rock run
Northern Rock Nationalization
HBOS and RBS demise
UBS really was Useless
Traders love to think they have that edge where they can predict the future and control their emotions. After a long day screaming at Bloomberg and spreadsheets, a work out in the gym is a way to relieve the stress and boredom, for it is extremely tedious looking at numbers all day long. So always wanting to buy the best I took a trip to see Matt Roberts, PT to the stars. His rates were extremely aggressive and despite telling me he would not reduce his rates I pushed hard for a discount.
Fitman Fintag: "Look at these abs? I am already fit? It will be less work for you." Very fitman Bobby: "But you are a nobody. If you were a celeb I could buy your name for a discount" Fitman Fintag: "Haven't you seen the markets? There are unemployed people everywhere." Very fitman Bobby: "Yes, and they all want six packs."
So perhaps the gymnasium industry has legs after all. Talking of legs, most CEO's have legs and those of old Incompetent Banks are revelling in paying bonuses despite politicians telling them to politely stop it.
Of course the winner in all this is your good ol' hedge fund. As we have seen, the banks have outsourced their prop desks to very friendly hedge funds. No need for onerous tier 1 capital or appraising monkey like traders, fights over bonuses or putting in after shave in the air con to keep the smell down. Traders get bored easily and an a fat size carrot keeps them at their desk. Take this away and they will not trade. So thankfully, they can be caged in Mayfair and kept at arms length, happy to reap the rewards of their skill and the banks can avoid the embarrassment of being seen paying bonuses.
So when Obama and Mandelson bang on about bonuses, it is all political. The people earning the bonuses are those who should only ever get bonuses anyway - those who make money for their shareholders. I mean why should a PA, a middle office valuer, a product accountant, a head of HR get a bonus? For what? Turning up to work?
So the ECB say maybe and the useless Bank of England drop their rates to a historic low. Does that mean we can close the Bank of England down now? Also good to see that big German bank's creative accounting coming awry too. So perhaps Matt Roberts can expect to see some more DB bankers coming his way soon so its not all bad news.
4) Despite the declining support, 78% say it is at least somewhat likely that the economic recovery package proposed by PresidentObama and congressional Democrats will become law during Obama's first 100 days in office. That figure includes 36% who say passage is Very Likely. That latter figure is down significantly from a week ago when 52% said passage of the legislation was Very Likely.
5) A stimulus plan that includes only tax cuts is now more popular than the economic recovery plan being considered in Congress. Forty-five percent (45%) favor a tax-cut only plan while 34% are opposed.
Fintag says So let us step back. Rates have been dropped to nothing. Governments are printing money by paying over the odds for crap assets. Taxes have been kept steady. Keynesian stimulus programs have been kicked start. Japan did all this and it failed.
Let the market collapse. All these sticky plaster solutions are useless. Of course try, but in a couple of months there will be nothing else that can be done. What next? Ban savings? Force people to spend? Give people in the streets thousands of dollars?
Interfering with a delicately balanced market and this is what you get. I am with Rogers and Soros on this. Capitalism is brutal but it does work. My idea? Ban anyone who is a socialist. Hunt them down and send them to Iceland.
politico says " Obama losing stimulus message war "
U.S. INITIAL UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS JUMP TO 26-YEAR HIGH
The number of Americans filing first- time claims for jobless benefits unexpectedly jumped last week to a 26-year high, signaling a deepening deterioration in the labor market.
Initial jobless claims increased by 35,000 to 626,000 in the week ended Jan. 31, the highest level since October 1982, the Labor Department said today in Washington. The total number of people collecting benefits jumped to a record 4.788 million a week earlier, today's report showed.
Fintag says Starsky and Hutch. Death Wish. Not nice.
HOW OFFSHORE CAPITALISM ATE OUR ECONOMIES - AND ITSELF
The world, as Schopenhauer observed, is a business that doesn't cover its expenses. This wasn't idle metaphysics but first-hand experience. The Schopenhauer family had been wealthy stockbrokers in the free trade city of Hamburg. Then the European economy collapsed and they lost everything. Two hundred years later, there is much that Schopenhauer would find familiar in the landscape of bank failures, collapsed companies and growing unemployment.
What lies behind the global recession is a particularly virile form of capitalism, now seemingly in its death throes. Let's call it "offshore" capitalism - literally so in the way it had locked itself into a network of tax havens and offshore finance centres that formed the shadow side of the world's banks and mega-corporations. But this was offshore in a metaphorical sense too - it produced financial structures and instruments so absurdly technical and abstract that the net effect was a freakishly remote economic system, detached from society.
Fintag says I have a better idea. Abolish tax. Tax was first used to fund wars. As Ronald Reagan used to say the problem is always government. If we cut this back - dictatorships are always better - and had a flat tax, these offshore havens would die.
Borrowing costs still have further to fall after the Bank of England cut UK interest rates by another half a percentage point to hit a 315-year low of 1 per cent, economists forecast on Thursday.
The Bank's monetary policy committee said the outlook for the world economy and the UK had deteriorated in the past month as it became ever more apparent “the global economy is in the throes of a severe and synchronised downturn”.
Fintag says So why didn't they just put rates to 0%. Sounds to me like they want to do a Japan and have silly meaningless rates like 0.35%. The Bank of England should shut shop and come back when we have roaring inflation. They were crap at being lender of last resort and Mervyn should use the opportunity to go fishing. Or perhaps revive his pop career:
Rupert Murdoch, the owner of The Sun and The Times, said the crisis buffeting his media empire was the worst in his 50-year career, but that the business could emerge stronger as the recession picks off weaker newspapers.
There was a time — was it only two months ago? — when people would have been proud to be on a list of Bernard L. Madoff's customers. They had made the cut, and their money was getting the Madoff touch, growing steadily and solidly in good times and bad.
Fintag says What a tedious job it was trawling through the madoff list. There are a lot of losers, no doubt about that. But there are a number of feeder fund investors missing. Where are the Russians, the Arabs and where is XXXXX ....
The loss-making business, Northwest, is being sold back to its founders after RAB bought it in a cash and shares deal valuing the operation at £20m in September 2006.
George Philips and David Rogers, who set up Northwest in 1998, will pay £1m in cash to buy the business back. As part of the deal, the two founders have agreed to forfeit 6.7 million of the shares-based payment promised at the time of the sale.
The two received £5.2m in cash and 13.4 million shares in total. RAB's shares were worth about 75p each in September 2006, valuing their shares payout at about £5m each. RAB's shares were trading at 9.72p on Monday morning, valuing the forgone shares at £651,000 each.
Fintag says Poor ol' Couttie and co. If there was a death spiral it would be RAB. But like UBS, it will hang in there.
70 comments
Panta said ...
And it is snowing again...This gave me the opprtunity to catch up a funny conversation with the blonde girl who works in Starbucks...at the corner. In 2009 I will stop salestrading which is dead ( I think is the most useless job in the city moreover)...and I will start building solid relationship between men and women..As they say in France..."Deumilleneuf l annee des meufs"
06 Feb 09 - 08:23 gmt
ProblemChild said ...
Been getting up later since you got laid off?
06 Feb 09 - 08:23 gmt
Panta said ...
XXXX Swiss Hedge..I probably know whou you r talking about Fin!!!
06 Feb 09 - 08:45 gmt
Alpha60 said ...
I had an introductory session with someone at Matt Roberts...overrated/priced. Can get the same level of excersize if not better at the grimy east ldn boxing gym i use. Though the locale and clientele leave abit to be desired
06 Feb 09 - 08:56 gmt
cudlow said ...
The new BARF plan is an enema wrapped in an enigma for US taxpayers!
Bend over and gird thy loins!
Larry Summers
06 Feb 09 - 08:57 gmt
Tradebot said ...
Sorry Fintag but you are wrong on the bank bonuses. The reason we got into this sorry mess was because those on the very top got were smoking their own dope and having illusions that they were worth the money they were paid. Not just that but they were delusional at best, insane at worst!
06 Feb 09 - 09:18 gmt
Moron said ...
i believe this market is read for another harsh selloff....don't know though if this will be the beginning of the next leg down or if it will be bought again...fasten ur seatbelts:)
06 Feb 09 - 09:19 gmt
Tradebot said ...
and for those monkey like traders, I think most of them do get paid a bonus for just turning up for work. It is the franchise that does the heavy lifting. Any monkey could make money if given enough room to front run the market on inside info. And when these star traders blow off in anger after not getting paid by Goldmorgan Bank, they set up their own hedge fund and end up blowing up in no time.
06 Feb 09 - 09:22 gmt
Tradebot said ...
...and don't get me started on the so called support staff. They sure don't "support" the shareholders - these guys are controlled by the business rather controlling the business for the shareholders. Accountants that are unable to produce accurate accounts, risk managers acting like rubber stamps and God only knows what those legions of HR staff do.
06 Feb 09 - 09:28 gmt
Tradebot said ...
hmm. GBPeso is on a tear, it is back in the fashion. Hmm, maybe it is the shorts cutting and switching over to short EUR death trade. Surely, nobody can be insane enough to buy the GBPeso on fundamentals...ha ha ha.
06 Feb 09 - 09:34 gmt
action jackson said ...
Looks like GE could break $10 in the couple of days. Immelt better get ready to pull the rip cord on his golden parachute.
06 Feb 09 - 09:41 gmt
Panta said ...
@ Moron: Brace, Brace, Brace...
06 Feb 09 - 09:44 gmt
KONG said ...
On the subject of no reward for failure, will Flash Gordon be taking salary this year?
06 Feb 09 - 09:50 gmt
finfaq.com said ...
What kind of bonuses are you giving out this year, finbar?
06 Feb 09 - 10:04 gmt
damiendamien said ...
@Fintag No tax? You're going all Ayn Rand.
06 Feb 09 - 10:20 gmt
Moron said ...
where is bitter anon today??...quite enjoyed the fight yesterday....brutal....but logical:))
06 Feb 09 - 10:33 gmt
anon said ...
anon is everywhere and nowhere. Finfaq who the f** are you?
06 Feb 09 - 11:12 gmt
MsR said ...
As I am an owner of RBS I am waiting for Gordon Brown to call me in so I can sort out bonuses. Or not. Frankly I wish he'd put my taxes into cupcake bakeries instead.
06 Feb 09 - 11:24 gmt
MsR said ...
As I am an owner of RBS I am waiting for Gordon Brown to call me in so I can sort out bonuses. Or not. Frankly I wish he'd put my taxes into cupcake bakeries instead.
06 Feb 09 - 11:24 gmt
Moron said ...
i am once again seeing signs of an extreme fade imminent....
06 Feb 09 - 11:35 gmt
cockyspiv said ...
I certainly deserved every bonus I ever got.
06 Feb 09 - 11:49 gmt
anonymous said ...
tradebot you might have noticed that eurozone econ is tanking...german ip down 12% y/y, it's a shame for you that the evening standard is so insular
06 Feb 09 - 11:58 gmt
Moron said ...
the more i look at it...i am seeing some very serious signs that a strong fade is imminent.....don't know if its the next major leg down...but a very strong fade at the least!!
06 Feb 09 - 12:37 gmt
anonymous said ...
brave call Moron...brave
06 Feb 09 - 12:40 gmt
Moron said ...
just saying what i see...very strong signs all validating each other....be very careful here....
06 Feb 09 - 12:41 gmt
Tradebot said ...
well, i don't like the EUR either.
06 Feb 09 - 12:44 gmt
anonymous said ...
hey moron..."fade" this (produces middle finger)
06 Feb 09 - 12:56 gmt
anonymous said ...
so you like the $ then (despite DGOs down 20% y/y, factory orders down 17%)
06 Feb 09 - 13:01 gmt
Moron said ...
hey anon....go back to what u do best mate....involves u and ur mother:))
06 Feb 09 - 13:02 gmt
Panta said ...
I must apologyse for my ignorance...but this market really give me headache...did you see the 40 points swing down and up on the dax..fut...I think a lot of people are burning theyr fingers...I will keep on sitting on this pile of nonsense an watch...
06 Feb 09 - 14:11 gmt
Panta said ...
the swing on figures.... i forgot to mention...
06 Feb 09 - 14:12 gmt
Moron said ...
hang in there mate....this is what a buying panic smells like...and we know what its usually followed by!!
06 Feb 09 - 14:22 gmt
KONG said ...
Panta, good luck for the Rugby tomorrow. I feel a historic win heading your way. : (
06 Feb 09 - 14:24 gmt
Panta said ...
@ KONG: ehehhe hope so...I got a couple of tickets actually...but even in case of a big defeat I hope to enjoy the game...actually is my first time watching rugby live...
06 Feb 09 - 14:33 gmt
KONG said ...
@Panta,
Well hope you enjoy the experience and go again. The atmosphere will be great, even if you stick 50 points on us.
06 Feb 09 - 14:44 gmt
Jaa said ...
Its been an "ouucchh" week but selling sp and dax here.. nice opurtunity here gents 860 nice,,
06 Feb 09 - 15:10 gmt
Moron said ...
yup....this is a buying panic....traders thinking if theydon't buy today...there will be no tomorrow...
06 Feb 09 - 15:16 gmt
Jaa said ...
buying the bailout bollocks... again
06 Feb 09 - 15:26 gmt
Moron said ...
yep...and they will fade the bailout news...and media will say markets don't like bailout...and obama will say..."i failed"....and his wife will nag him for the rest of his term....u have to love this beautiful world we live in:)))
06 Feb 09 - 15:29 gmt
Panta said ...
Watch out guys as this market is traded by monkeys I really start to think esoxx could move towards 2420...The market is going up on spec Obama plan will be aprouved on monday...But then as Moron would say...short like there is no tomorrow...Much more pain to come...
06 Feb 09 - 15:31 gmt
Panta said ...
...we should organise a poor man dinner to cheer up...we icould nvite MsR as well and bitter anon...I like debates...we could play monopoly or Risk..all nite long talking aboout our post traders life plans...
06 Feb 09 - 15:34 gmt
Kraut said ...
Fin favouring dictatorships, quoting Schopenhauer, stuck in snow, have you been German today ?:)
06 Feb 09 - 15:35 gmt
Moron said ...
yeah we shud invite bitter anon for sure....i haven't punched anyone in the face for a long time....used to do that very well when i was younger:)))
06 Feb 09 - 15:39 gmt
anonymous said ...
Trading 101 for non traders - Go in the opposite direction to Moron...is a lot more profitable...:))
06 Feb 09 - 16:10 gmt
Moron said ...
u've got to love this market....look at the way so many stocks today have just blown out of their upper bollinger bands.....love it:)
06 Feb 09 - 16:11 gmt
anonymous said ...
yeah we are really comnvinced you are loving this moron
06 Feb 09 - 16:17 gmt
Moron said ...
it gives u a validation mate....that we have swung to an extreme...dunno how u trade...but i make money over a period of time...wish i had ur skills to be positive every single day...but i'm not that good yet:))....and u think today is harsh...u have no idea what real pain is :))
06 Feb 09 - 16:22 gmt
Super Mario said ...
Wonder if anyone got into the SPMIB at 18200 as tipped by your fave plumber...lovely white meat trade!!! The fut is now slightly over 18400!!
06 Feb 09 - 16:37 gmt
anonymous said ...
wow a 1.1% gain..brilliant! and on such a low vol market
06 Feb 09 - 17:24 gmt
Moron said ...
be careful here guys....this fade is gonna be nasty.....be careful!
06 Feb 09 - 17:25 gmt
MsR said ...
@Panta:As Mama R I am telling you to dress warm for rugby. Like the idea of a recession dinner. I'll make the pudding. We could play backgammon..you play Panta?
06 Feb 09 - 17:27 gmt
anonymous said ...
Moron is a lovely guy, his ass is being handed on a plate to him, yet he still thinks about us
06 Feb 09 - 17:40 gmt
Super Mario said ...
agree with you Moron...think next week could be time to change strategy again...these crazy mkts have to have ultra short time horizons...
signori anonymous - depends on your entry point and size...money is money paisan..:))
06 Feb 09 - 17:44 gmt
anonymous said ...
i agree, he really is a guileless twat
06 Feb 09 - 17:44 gmt
anonymous said ...
don't you mean gormless?
06 Feb 09 - 17:52 gmt
Moron said ...
we shall see...today is ur day...so enjoy it while it lasts desperados:)))
06 Feb 09 - 17:54 gmt
anonymous said ...
hey moron, how are you finding the high cost of borrow?
06 Feb 09 - 17:56 gmt
ProblemChild said ...
@anon - if your going to make me scroll through your mindless drivel, could you try to up the wit level a little bit to make it less tedious? You sound like a 5 year old.
06 Feb 09 - 18:01 gmt
Moron said ...
yeah cost of borrow is a pain ... we know that mate... funny thing abt anon is that he is so scared....he doesn't ever say anything or add any value other than put others down.....we've all been there mate...its a sad way to live...do u really need the money so bad???
06 Feb 09 - 18:06 gmt
anonymous said ...
as ever i keep my rejoinders short and too the point there seem to be others on here who also find moron mind-numblingly annoying
06 Feb 09 - 18:06 gmt
ProblemChild said ...
/slashes wrists
06 Feb 09 - 18:16 gmt
Moron said ...
blood on his desk:)
06 Feb 09 - 18:22 gmt
Panta said ...
@MsR I love backgamon...guys next week it s going to hurt...
06 Feb 09 - 18:22 gmt
Moron said ...
it doesn't hurt anon anymore...he's already sore:))
06 Feb 09 - 18:24 gmt
Moron said ...
take a look at intraday reversal in morgan stanley.....sign of things to come next week...be careful..
06 Feb 09 - 18:26 gmt
ProblemChild said ...
Actually did it on a packed DLR train passing through Canary Wharf, but, being London, nobody batted an eyelid.
06 Feb 09 - 18:26 gmt
donhaiku said ...
its the weekend. get a life.
07 Feb 09 - 02:24 gmt
Moron said ...
weekend news coming out on rescue plan...the jokers are botching it again...expect all hell to breal loose on monday.....short like there is no tomorrow!!!!:))
07 Feb 09 - 16:01 gmt
fitzcaraldo said ...
anybody out there?
08 Feb 09 - 15:13 gmt
Moron said ...
this is the week Mr Obama is truly going to realize the mess he has inherited.....short like there is no tomorrow!!!