28JAN09:
Q1-09 DOW: 8900
Q2-09 DOW: 7250
Q3-09 DOW: 5810
Q4-09 DOW: 3960
CITI NATIONALIZED
OBAMA GETS SICK 27AUG09:
Mini Crash 21SEP09 Predicted correctly:
Bailout=Bonuses
Demise of Bear Stearns
Demise of Lehman Bros.
Demise of AIG
Subprime would cause problems
Date of 2007 crash
CRAs were to blame
G20 riots were a party
Northern Rock run
Northern Rock Nationalization
HBOS and RBS demise
UBS really was Useless
Yesterday I was accused of being goofy (by some junior Morgan Stanley investment civil servant) and at the same time told I was the funniest person on the planet (by someone I need to get to know better ;) ). So let us get back to business. The testimony of Harry Markopolos before the US House of Representatives is some of the funniest reading. Its all about Madoff but more importantly the goofy buffoons who were supposed to be regulating the man. Let us look at a small piece of this:
Biff Number 1: "New York and Washington also have sizeable analysts societies but rarely does anyone see SEC staff attending these educational events and we all know it isn't because the SEC has no need for greater industry knowledge. Either the SEC is anti-intellectual and intentionally maintaining staff uneducated about the capital markets or it is merely being ignorant.
In either case, not to budget for it's staff's education is indefensible in the 21st century.
SEC employees are knowledge workers, not unthinking, replaceable cogs and deserve to have the required educational resources available to them to do their jobs.
To further illustrate the anti-intellectual bias of the SEC, consider what the SEC staff has printed on their business cards. If you're expecting to see Certified Public Accountant, Certified Financial Planner, Certified Fraud Examiner, Certified Internal Auditor, Financial Risk Manager, Chartered Financial Analyst, Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst, or some other sort of highly sought after professional designation, you will be sorely disappointed.
For some unfathomable reason, most of the very few credentialed SEC staffers do not have their professional designations printed on their business cards."
So what sort of people do the SEC hire?
Biff Number 2: "To properly regulate the finance industry, the SEC needs to hire people who know how to take apart complex financial instruments and put them back together again. If an SEC staffer doesn't know derivatives math, portfolio construction math, arbitrage pricing theory, the Capital Asset Pricing Model, both normal and non-normal statistics, financial statement analysis, balance sheet metrics, or performance presentation formulas then they shouldn't be hired other than to fill administrative or clerical positions.
For instance, a person I know rather well in the Boston office, with over 10 years of industry experience, a double major under-graduate degree in economics and math from an Ivy League school, with an MBA degree and a Chartered Financial Analysts designation wanted to leave her job as a senior analyst at a large mutual fund company in order to have another child. She wanted out of the rat race where 60 hour work weeks were both common and expected so she applied for a job with the SEC.
During her interview she was told that she was 1) overqualified with too much industry experience, 2) over educated and 3) that she wouldn't be happy inspecting paperwork and would likely quit in frustration so the SEC didn't plan on offering her the job.
This is deeply problematic as it underscores the lack of a proper recruitment policy to equip the SEC with appropriate personnel for the work with which it is mandated and the expertise expected in order to appropriately monitor our financial institutions and their numerous transactions. The SEC apparently is only interested in administrative verification, to ensure compliance with existing (outdated) securities laws. Is it any wonder, given the current SEC staff, that major financial felonies go unpunished while minor paperwork transgressions are flagged for attention?"
Biff Number 3: "More recently, the SEC watched quietly but did nothing to prevent the train wreck as the nation's five largest domestic investment banks either failed like Lehman, were rescued by government forced acquisitions like Bear Stearns and Merrill Lynch, or became bank holding companies in order to survive like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. And today, no investor knows what the bank's balance sheets look like because the SEC is refusing to enforce transparency rules.
When the industry you purported to regulate implodes and the nation's financial system is frozen, then it is safe to say that you've failed as a regulator. It is also safe to say that the SEC has lost the nation's confidence. The Executive Branch and Congress are faced with the following critical question - do we disband the SEC, merge it out of existence, or fix it?"
I have seen some beatings but this is pretty brutal.
So what about Madoff? Is the man being tortured to confess who his partners in crime were, or is he locked away to prevent harm coming his way. A plea bargain surely to protect his family? Was he really the latest James Bond villian ready to money launder the world or just a compulsive obsessive desk jockey who got a bit carried away with his fax machine?
All will be revealed in time.
So with the lovely Erin taking time out, the UK ready to drop rates again (why bother it hasn't worked so far) and 500 million Americans losing jobs, this eclectic news lucky dip should appeal to all expect Disney lovin' Morgan Stanley analysts [Editor: You really do need help.]
Some people are suggesting that the bad idea of a bad bank is gaining momentum in the Obama administration; Others are suggesting that an insurance wrap around the toxic assets is the better approach:
“The Obama administration, aiming to overhaul the $700 billion financial-rescue program, is refocusing on an effort to guarantee illiquid assets against losses without taking them off banks' balance sheets.
Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner is skeptical of setting up a so-called bad bank to hold the toxic securities, an option that still may form part of the final package, people familiar with the matter said. Senator Charles Schumer yesterday said debt guarantees are becoming “a favorite choice” of options because a bad bank would be too costly.
Fintag says Whatever. It is just an entity. What next? Discussions on the type of branding? A Marketing plan? A funky website? Just do it.
bloomberg says " Asset Guarantees Gain Momentum in U.S. Bank Talks "
HARRY MARKOPOLOS ATTACKS SEC FOR 'FINANCIAL ILLITERACY'
Fraud investigator Harry Markopolos blamed the Securities and Exchange Commission's "financial illiteracy" for failing to heed his warnings about money manager Bernard Madoff, the Wall Street Journal reports.
Mr Markopolos had warned the SEC for nearly a decade that Mr. Madoff was operating an alleged Ponzi scheme. Mr. Markopolos is set to testify before a House committee on Wednesday, and 311 pages of his written testimony became public on Tuesday evening.
Fintag says So now the SEC has been beaten up it needs to rebrand and start again. So where is Obama? Oh he is still learning how to read his scripts. Fixing the SEC is an absolute must. Do what the UK did and merge all the regulators into a super regulator, write a 10 foot high manual and collect that data.
JAPAN IS IN THE THROES OF DEEP RECESSION WITH A PUBLIC DEBT AT 180% OF GDP
Japan is in the throes of a deep recession with a public debt at 180 percent of GDP (gross domestic product). And its plight could be intensified by a “race to the bottom”, with sterling falling 60 percent against the yen in the space of six months, says Professor Norbert Walter, Chief Economist of Deutsche Bank Group - - Germany's biggest bank. He says the international community should ask itself whether it really wants to put Japan in such a position.?
Fintag says And people are still buying the yen? This is quite extraordinary. Who next? Not the UK surely ...
Oops news: world net daily says " Pelosi: '500 million Americans' losing jobs "
AIMA CALLS FOR GLOBAL RESPONSE TO ISSUES TOUCHING HEDGE FUNDS
A global response is needed to the concerns from regulators and politicians concerning hedge funds said the Alternative Investment Management Association (AIMA). In its response to the European Commission's consultation paper on hedge funds, the industry representative has stressed the EU should focus on a more collegiate response to the crisis facing the worldwide financial system.
"AIMA is dealing with policy makers and regulators at a national, European and international level on the future regulatory framework of the hedge fund industry. While we do welcome this initiative by the European Commission, the current problems are global and, therefore we believe that ultimately a coherent, global response is needed," said CEO Andrew Baker.
Fintag says I like being touched all over. Good grief, I didn't realise Baker was CEO of AIMA. He owes me money ...
EX-LEHMAN CFO CALLAN TAKES LEAVE FROM CREDIT SUISSE
Erin Callan, former chief financial officer of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc, is taking a leave of absence from her current position as head of hedge funds business at Credit Suisse. Victoria Harmon, a spokeswoman of Credit Suisse, declined to explain the reason for the leave. Callan was hired by the Swiss bank just five months ago.
She was ousted as Lehman CFO last June as the company prepared to report a $2.8 billion quarterly loss.
Fintag says Perhaps Dick wants her to be in the same Cell, eh? [Editor: Uh?]. I hope she is OK as she kept a grumpy Finbar's heart beat going for the early part of last year.Anything I can do to help ...
A large section of the British high street was in effect put up for sale yesterday as the Icelandic retail group Baugur filed for protection from its creditors.
The company, which has investments in about one in 10 high street retailers, including Hamleys toys, House of Fraser department stores and Iceland frozen food supermarkets, was forced to seek the Icelandic equivalent of bankruptcy protection after the troubled Landsbanki bank withdrew its funding and walked away from refinancing talks.
Fintag says Icelanders. It had to happen and it has happened. I am sure Mr Green will be snapping the cherries at bargain prices.
There will be no fun in the sun at a Goldman Sachs hedge fund client conference this year.
The Wall Street giant—which earlier this year became a bank holding company and took $10 billion in federal bailout funds—has postponed the conference, originally set for Miami next month, and moved it to New York. The move comes in response the “the current environment,” a Goldman spokesman said, and not as a cost-cutting measure, per se: Clients planning to attend the March 2-4 confab at the Fairmont Turnberry Isle Resort & Club in Aventura, Fla., pay for their own travel and hotel rooms.
Fintag says I won't be going then. Spoil sports. To protest I shall be sending a fruit basket to their head office.
The whistleblower who spent almost a decade trying to expose Bernard Madoff claimed Wednesday there are still a dozen unidentified “feeder” funds in Europe which gave money to the New York broker accused of an alleged $50bn fraud. Harry Markopolos told legislators that his investigation into Madoff had identified 14 feeder funds, only two of which have been made public so far. Markopolos said he and his team planned to meet with SEC inspector general David Kotz on Thursday to turn over a list of European feeder funds “so that the French and Swiss authorities can inspect these organisations.”
Fintag says As we know there are many investors refusing to acknowledge they had any exposure. I wonder why? Still, I do know one 1 feeder fund that will be on the list. Based in Switzerland.
U.S. HOUSING SLUMP HAS 'JUST BEGUN,' SAYS FORECASTER TALBOTT
Let's say you own a $1 million home in Santa Barbara, California.
The house seemed like a steal when you bought it with that adjustable-rate mortgage in 2005. You still love the white beaches and those yachts bobbing up and down in the harbor.
Then you awaken early one morning, troubled that your monthly payments will soon double. You go out to pick up your newspaper and see for-sale signs on five houses on the street. One identical to yours just sold for $500,000.
Fintag says Here we go again. Houses are for living in not investments. They are illiquid assets, risky and have a high volatility.
A former star fund manager convicted of insider trading involving the scandal-hit Livedoor Internet company avoided jail time Tuesday when a Japanese court suspended his two-year prison sentence.
Fintag says Another bad apple that gives us good apples a bad name.
DID MADOFF'S FEEDER FUND SHOP FOR FRIENDLY AUDITS?
When Madoff whistleblower Harry Markopolos testified before Congress Wednesday, he blasted the Securities and Exchange Commission, gave gripping testimony about his nine-year quest to reveal Bernard Madoff's alleged $50 billion scheme, and predicted that more of Madoff's web would be uncovered soon. But one of his most damaging accusations was about the auditing practices of Madoff's biggest feeder fund, Fairfield Greenwich Group.
Fintag says Of course he did. We all do it. Our advisors make money from us and if they disagree we sack them (prime brokers, administrators, accountants, lawyers et al). Why work with tossers?
31 comments
Hanky Paulson said ...
Only Republicans could get this ball rolling so far and so fast. People will learn to love regulation. Socialism is inevitable. Resistance is futile. Markets are so 2008. Of course after the revolution....
05 Feb 09 - 08:10 gmt
H said ...
"Still, I do know one 1 feeder fund that will be on the list. Based in Switzerland. "
RMF??????
05 Feb 09 - 08:47 gmt
useless suntanned IB said ...
great opening section again, Fin, I will miss those conferences in sunny places...
05 Feb 09 - 09:03 gmt
fitzcaraldo said ...
still Italian, Fintaggio?
05 Feb 09 - 09:03 gmt
Panta said ...
I used to roll the dice....
05 Feb 09 - 09:34 gmt
anonymous said ...
Re Biff #2:
I had an identical experience to your Boston acquaintance with both the SEC and CFTC after a shop I was with in Toronto imploded. I had at that time15 years of experience as a trader/analyst and wanted to return to the US. Overqualified - no job of with too much industry background and friends in the business - no job offer.
05 Feb 09 - 11:23 gmt
Madoff List said ...
h ttp://image.guardian.co.uk/sys-files/Business/documents/2009/02/05/madoff_list.pdf
05 Feb 09 - 12:53 gmt
anonymous said ...
I think today's post is an imposter fintag - where is the real one?
05 Feb 09 - 13:02 gmt
MsR said ...
@13.02 It is a bit sensible isn't it. I am dreading my next lunch with him if he's like this..think I'll cancel
05 Feb 09 - 13:13 gmt
Panta said ...
Cynicism is the result of a good mental health.....
05 Feb 09 - 13:20 gmt
Moron said ...
one full day of studied silence despite falling markets.....can't stay quiet anymore:))
05 Feb 09 - 15:22 gmt
anonymous said ...
SPX, DJIA and DAX up...
05 Feb 09 - 16:06 gmt
Moron said ...
they were down 30 mins ago...this market has gone mad!!
05 Feb 09 - 16:11 gmt
Panta said ...
*FORTUNOFF HOLDINGS FILES FOR BANKRUPCY IN NY....MHHH this name remember something or someone....
ps fortunoff..?? that wasn't lucky at all
05 Feb 09 - 16:13 gmt
Tradebot said ...
yeah. I am amazed by the GBPeso rally. Oh well.
05 Feb 09 - 16:58 gmt
MsR said ...
@moron: Why not try a brooding silence. Us girls like that:)
05 Feb 09 - 17:11 gmt
anonymous said ...
yes in your face tradebot, that's what hapens when you channel the evening standard for your trading strategy...in your face once again
05 Feb 09 - 17:11 gmt
anonymous said ...
hey moron are you still finding the cost of borrow rather high?
05 Feb 09 - 17:12 gmt
Moron said ...
fantastic...so now bitter anon thinks he is a genius....clown:))....whats ur track record like sweetie??
05 Feb 09 - 17:18 gmt
Alpha60 said ...
@tradebot - looks like the US jobs data has seen to the $ getting hammered...tho why oh why are the SPX and .DJI rallying
05 Feb 09 - 17:23 gmt
anonymous said ...
let's put in this way ass clown with your binary trading strategy you won't have a job much longer...you seem very green&inexperienced
05 Feb 09 - 17:24 gmt
anonymous said ...
hey moron are you still finding the cost of borrow rather high?
05 Feb 09 - 17:28 gmt
Moron said ...
green and inexperienced....just bcos i don't do cynical the way u do? binary trading strategy....would u like a list of stocks that are still at their bear market lows despite this bullsh*t rally of yours!! and the ones that are rising are doing so in a very clear channel......without much of a slope..... u think this is a rock solid rally mate....what are u smoking???
05 Feb 09 - 17:29 gmt
Moron said ...
ride ur little house of cards until it falls apart....u need to be really desparate to pat urself on the back for a bear market rally after a drastic sell off....every donkey clearly has his day:)
05 Feb 09 - 17:34 gmt
Super Mario said ...
LOL moron..."every donkey has his day" 2 funny and right.
05 Feb 09 - 17:40 gmt
anonymous said ...
as i said, you live in a binary world i don't inhabit rookie...you are shorting every rally, i'm not going long on every fall. you get over-excited and over-commit yourself every time the market is your way, leaving you with expensive positions that are hurting you daily....you will need ever deeper market falls to come out even flat. you need to do your homework better, learn how markets trade and not get carried away by the hyerbole.
05 Feb 09 - 17:41 gmt
anonymous said ...
hey moron are you still finding the cost of borrow rather high?
05 Feb 09 - 17:47 gmt
Moron said ...
how markets trade is that if u are in a sideways trading range u will be more than fine going short when we are at the top of the range and see other signs of a buying panic....and ranges don't last forever...so when u get ur eventual resolution to the downside u will make ur gains....unless u r really smart and actually manage to trade well within the range itself...and if u r genuinely a long believer...why arent u buying every time we see a seller's panic???
05 Feb 09 - 17:55 gmt
AthenaDelphi said ...
Oh Fin, your entry "BAD BANK' VERSUS 'INSURANCE WRAP' where you respond: Whatever. It is just an entity. What next? Discussions on the type of branding? A Marketing plan? A funky website? Just do it.
O is having problems with 3 words: War on Terror. His PR people are trying to come up with a phrase that sounds more 'hopeful'.
And you want O to just do it.
HAHAHAHAHA
05 Feb 09 - 23:33 gmt
AthenaDelphi said ...
Finally!!! President O has declared Kentucky a disaster zone after 14 days of ice and no electric. Over 24 dead and 150,000 without power and food. Nothing was done for 14 days.
"Unconscionable ineptitude", President O, declared of Bush's Katrina response. That was a city.
This is a state! Oh, and the peanut butter in those survival packets O's dept. of homeland security sent to help the people? Tainted with Salmonella.
CLUE!@
05 Feb 09 - 23:39 gmt
anonymous said ...
Feb. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner must use his Feb. 9 speech to lure private investment to U.S. banks or risk an accelerating flight of capital that would result in creeping nationalization, analysts and investors said.
Hope Tiny Tim doesn't go after China again or the US will be the next Iceland.