28JAN09:
Q1-09 DOW: 8900
Q2-09 DOW: 7250
Q3-09 DOW: 5810
Q4-09 DOW: 3960
CITI NATIONALIZED
OBAMA GETS SICK 27AUG09:
Mini Crash 21SEP09 Predicted correctly:
Bailout=Bonuses
Demise of Bear Stearns
Demise of Lehman Bros.
Demise of AIG
Subprime would cause problems
Date of 2007 crash
CRAs were to blame
G20 riots were a party
Northern Rock run
Northern Rock Nationalization
HBOS and RBS demise
UBS really was Useless
So what is wrong about that? Imagine a world where a country had no real manufacturing or service based industry, had falling gdp and all its citizens bought stuff from other countries apart from its own? It wouldn't last long. The country would have escalating unemployment, falling tax revenues and anarchy. So buying British in this politically correct world is the only way forward. Globalization has failed and liberalism is dead. Today, it is survival of the fittest and unless the UK starts kicking ass it will be a has been. It was so much easier when it had an empire.
International trade has been the corner stone of laissez faire economics. It has also been used to avoid conflict and war. The free movement of capital and labor is good for us all. Countries that can produce stuff cheaper than others are rewarded and we all benefit from child exploitation and stuff we don't need. Competition bites hard and instead of us driving around for years on end in Trabants, we get new car models produced monthly. Consumer choice, happiness and contentment.
Politicians use international trade as lever to keep countries on the straight and narrow. Take Zimbabwe. Economic sanctions work because the country is not self sufficient. And this is where protectionism comes into its own. If you have no friends you grab land and resources from your enemies. China, Russia and the USA have the ability to go it alone. But not quite. China rapes Australia for its commodities, Russia rapes the UK for its culture and the USA rapes Iraq for the oil. It is part of the game until unemployment and social unrest take their toil when rape then becomes ownership.
In the 1930s, international trade was sporadic and Germany suffered at the hands of those still annoyed at World War 1. As deprivation and anger seeped into the psyche of the Germans, the depressed world enjoyed a massive fillip from World War 2 as it did during the space race.
Protectionism breeds paranoia but this is where we are headed and Obama is the one to start it. Is his honeymoon period over? I think it is. How embarrassing it looks now at the hoards of people lined up to wave at the Blackberry Man, the savior of the world? His descent is more rapid than even I could imagine. Carter. Ford. Nixon. Obama.
Yesterday I was French. I was berated for not being Italian so today I shall join the land of cool and corruption. Being French enabled me to be more arrogant than usual; my eyes sought out attractive women; my nose the garlic Bordeaux brie combinations and my ears the worst pop music ever made. Today I am wearing very cool clothes, calling my mother every 10 minutes and telling everyone I am not gay. Makes a change from being British although I may well return back to my roots when the ice and snow dissipate.
International trade is a leveller. It aims to make everyone equal and pushes a model of democracy into those countries who don't want it. But when your people are starving and restless, politicians need all the help they can get and caring for those abroad is the last thing on their minds. Discrimination is part of survival and although this may seem wrong, it is a matter of fact. We revert to animal instincts.
So Obama is right to want to protect the national interests of the USA. It will detract the Americans from the mess he is making trying to form a government and his civil servant salary caps. Shame us liberal Brits are sitting on the sidelines but it won't be long before wearing union jack pants will be seen as a good thing once more.
Today we love oil, gold and armani. Things going to the thrift shop include bad banks, tax evaders and fintag mansions.
Snow Alert There are so many cute photos of dogs and children playing in the snow in London. So here is a picture of a dead snowman.
And for those of you looking for some zombie magic, here is a station popular with French and Italians. But as you can see, they have decided to work European hours.
FED CAPITULATES: EXTENDS ALL EXISTING LIQUIDITY PROGRAMS AND SWAPS
The Federal Reserve on Tuesday announced the extension through October 30, 2009, of its existing liquidity programs that were scheduled to expire on April 30, 2009. The Board of Governors and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) took these actions in light of continuing substantial strains in many financial markets.
The Board of Governors approved the extension through October 30 of the Asset-Backed Commercial Paper Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility (AMLF), the Commercial Paper Funding Facility (CPFF), the Money Market Investor Funding Facility (MMIFF), the Primary Dealer Credit Facility (PDCF), and the Term Securities Lending Facility (TSLF). The FOMC also took action to extend the TSLF, which is established under the joint authority of the Board and the FOMC.
Fintag says Oh dear. Just like the ban on short selling, sometimes plans go awry. So it thinks the bottom of the market will be 1 November 2009? We shall see.
bloomberg says "British Economy Will Shrink Until Fourth Quarter, Niesr Says "
President Barack Obama will announce today that he's imposing a cap of $500,000 on the compensation of top executives at companies that receive significant federal assistance in the future, responding to a public outcry over Wall Street excess.
Any additional compensation will be in restricted stock that won't vest until taxpayers have been paid back, according to an administration official, who requested anonymity. The rules will force greater transparency on the use of corporate jets, office renovations and holiday parties as well as golden parachutes offered to executives when they leave companies.
Fintag says Thankfully a few CEO's saw this coming and lined their pockets early. So investment banking is no longer the cash cow it once was. The shareholders will be delighted - when they start making profits again and paying out fat dividends. Time to go long banks ...but what about those banks not nationalised? They will end up with all the good staff. Funny how distorting the market produces unwelcome outcomes. So in fact with less banks, the bonuses will get even larger.
Given most of Obama's team are people who follow the Leona Helmsley school of tax policy ...sorry I lost the point.
It was the worst January ever for the stock markets — but it turned out pretty well for Och-Ziff Capital Management.
The hedge-fund firm run by Daniel Och notched gains in each of its four funds last month, which is especially good news for the firm after the less-than-stellar year it had in 2008.
Fintag says My favourite hedge fund is surviving; I must got to Carluccios in Fenwicks to celebrate.
Bernard Madoff whistleblower Harry Markopolos does not mince words. Ten years ago, he baldly—and presciently—stated that Madoff was running the world's largest Ponzi scheme. Today, he brings that candor to Capitol Hill, and, based on his written testimony, he'll pull no punches.
Markopolos will testify before the House Financial Services Committee's capital markets panel. Alongside him will be five senior staffers from the Securities and Exchange Commission, who are not likely to like what they hear: In his written testimony, Markopolos says the “nonfunctional” SEC suffers from “investigative ineptitude” and financial illiteracy.
Fintag says The poor ol' SEC. It is the whipping boy and well deserved. So when is Obama going to dismantle it or rename it something like the CDLL (Collect Data and Litigate Later)?
Alistair Darling admitted UK taxpayers may have to buy toxic assets from Britain's banks to help stimulate lending, adding a “bad bank” scheme to the government's existing plans to insure banks against unexpected losses.
The UK chancellor said the bad bank approach might be necessary with “one or two institutions” in order to remove problematic old loans from banks' balance sheets rather than simply insuring them, to give them confidence to start lending again.
Fintag says Another American idea "adopted" by the useless UK government. More of my taxes to be used to pay for the bonuses past of inept Scottish CEO's.
naked capitalism says " The Bad Bank Assets Proposal: Even Worse Than You Imagined "
independent says " Lenders borrowed GBP185bn from BoE scheme"
STOCK MARKET IS BOTTOMING, EQUITIES VS GOLD BULLION
Stock market looks like it has bottomed forming a similar pattern as it did in 2003. What is the better investment during an opportunity like this if this is the bottom: Stocks, Gold Bullion or Mining Stocks?
The charts below will really open your eyes as to how similar today's W looking bottom is to the W shaped bottom in 2003. Of course 6 years later the markets trade and move faster than ever before because of technology allowing traders to track and trade stocks from anywhere with a click of a button. So this years bottom formed much quicker.
Fintag says We all love bottoms. Especially us Italians [Editor: Steady]
COHEN'S HEDGE FUND TAXES CAN'T FIX CONNECTICUT'S FALLEN REVENUE
Philip Duff, Morgan Stanley's former chief financial officer, last month fired 80 of the 100 people at his 11-month-old hedge fund, and now he's looking to sublet excess office space in Greenwich, Connecticut.
Record losses and terminations at hedge funds like Duff Capital Advisors have reduced Connecticut's tax revenue, and that means the city schools in Bridgeport, 25 miles north, may soon have less space. Facing an anticipated $12 million drop in state aid, Superintendent John Ramos says he may close some of his 35 schools.
Fintag says See. Us hedgies are vital to the proper workings of an economy. So where is our "bad hedge fund"?
FLORIDA JUDGE ORDERS ARTHUR NADEL TO FACE SEC CHARGES IN NEW YORK
Federal judge Mark A. Pizzo yesterday signed an order to transfer hedge fund manager Arthur Nadel, based in Sarasota, Florida, to New York to face wire and securities fraud charges.
Nadel disappeared on 14 January but reappeared about two weeks later when he turned himself in to FBI authorities.
On 21 January the Securities and Exchange Commission charged Nadel with fraud in connection with six hedge funds for which he acted as the principal investment adviser.
Fintag says Pizzo - a good old fashioned Italian name.
John Meriwether is planning his second rise from the ashes after a disastrous year.
The Long-Term Capital Management founder and the remaining partners of his hedge fund JWM Partners are mulling a new fund, according to The Wall Street Journal. The new vehicle may or may not be a part of JWM; the firm's four partners are considering setting up a new company for it.
Fintag says Everything this man touches turns to ash and yet investors love giving him money. This will be his 4th time I believe.
41 comments
Panta said ...
Morning!!!...Fin where are the daily comments ?
04 Feb 09 - 08:12 gmt
Panta said ...
Fin..there is just one stereotype I don't understand...do you really think Italians are telling everyone they are not gay? (Maximun respect for everyone)..By the way...welcome to country of Fashion, Pizza, Spaghetti,Mafia,Mamma,Mandolino...Tangentopoli...Calciopoli...Manipulite...Berlusconi, Dipietro...and 50 years of state secrets..and lies...
04 Feb 09 - 08:28 gmt
KONG said ...
Today I am half-German half-British. I want to take over the world but am too polite to try.
04 Feb 09 - 09:04 gmt
fitzcaraldo said ...
Buon giorno, Fin, great entry comments today, enjoy being Italian...
04 Feb 09 - 09:49 gmt
anonymous said ...
did any of you read the breaking views talking about a re balancing of global prices possibly resulting in a 20 year slow down!!! hahah
04 Feb 09 - 09:50 gmt
anonymous said ...
Something really ticked you off today, Fin. Nice.
04 Feb 09 - 10:12 gmt
Super Mario said ...
Fin...or is it fintaggio...welcome to being italian
04 Feb 09 - 10:38 gmt
Tradebot said ...
Fintaggio, ha ha ha. Nice one Super Mario.
04 Feb 09 - 11:03 gmt
Tradebot said ...
hmmm. some new guessestimates from the propeller heads for UK GDP drop in 2009. Latest estimate : -2.5%. Seems tad bit low to me. My guesstimate : -7.5%, give to take 1%.
04 Feb 09 - 11:08 gmt
anonymous said ...
How about Fintagoff ... after a certain American character :)
04 Feb 09 - 11:09 gmt
PAnta said ...
@ Supermario...Yesterday he was Fintage....
04 Feb 09 - 11:14 gmt
Mr. Bean said ...
I think a range of Fin action figures should be produced with matching accessories for his different identities.
:o)
04 Feb 09 - 11:19 gmt
MsR said ...
@Mr Bean. Yes. Like Barbie. Except it would be Greenwich Fin, Mayfair Fin, Geneva Fin..little Patek and Rolex watches to swap round..cute. Trade them with your friends...
04 Feb 09 - 11:35 gmt
KONG said ...
Breaking Views is written by unqualified clueless monkeys. I speak from experience of meeting some of them.
04 Feb 09 - 11:39 gmt
anonymous said ...
MsR.. dont forget about post redemption Fin, apologetic letter to investors Fin, avoiding the russians Fin and finally do you want fries with that Fiin.....
04 Feb 09 - 12:06 gmt
MsR said ...
@12.06 Love them all. I should add the one I am most familiar with: Lunching Fin
04 Feb 09 - 12:14 gmt
Alystin Darliny said ...
Russia rapes the UK for its culture? Fin, I don't get this one. Russia's culture is way superior to the English one. Can you elaborate further? thx
04 Feb 09 - 12:18 gmt
MUNCH the GREATEST said ...
hey !SPLAT
Say SORRY to The Munch, China!!!
bwahahahaha
04 Feb 09 - 12:23 gmt
MUNCH the GREATEST said ...
oy !SPLAT
no, no, NO!
MUST send MUNNEY!!!
04 Feb 09 - 12:42 gmt
Panta said ...
It is not a question of being brits ritals froggies russian whatever....the whole world is Kaputt...we should colonise Mars ASAP
04 Feb 09 - 12:51 gmt
MUNCH the GREATEST said ...
must be a CORPSE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
04 Feb 09 - 12:55 gmt
Boaster said ...
"USA rapes Iraq for the oil"?! Give me a break, that canard died a long time ago. Iraq oil revenues have been distributed btwn Sunnis, Shias & Kurds for years. But being Italian today must have your blood up, obviously getting over excited, talking rapidly with your hands and arms flailing about.... Next time try being Swiss and rational. Or a Yank and optimistic!
04 Feb 09 - 13:02 gmt
MsR said ...
@Boaster: Seriously, next you'll tell me the oil has been distributed evenly btw the various groups in Iraq
04 Feb 09 - 13:25 gmt
Boaster said ...
Salary cap story is mostly empty, applies only to firms taking Fed $ "in the future". Now execs will do everything possible to avoid taking the money, will slash businesses, merge, etc. But why EU mkts are up today when... ah, of course, b/c most of you are already familair with socialism and the govt limiting incentives. US futures up slightly but this will be a down day. Yes, I'm still optimistic but will be more so when I cover my shorts.
04 Feb 09 - 13:27 gmt
Boaster said ...
@MsR- "distributed"? Crude's not a lot of good to people who don't have adequate refining capabilities. Iraq is selling their oil on the market. I suppose there are US, UK, certainly Chinese and even Aussie buyers.
04 Feb 09 - 13:56 gmt
Tokyo Sexwhale said ...
fin - being italian for a day means you need to break out the moustache...cause you need to try look like mama....
04 Feb 09 - 14:02 gmt
sterotyperacist said ...
@boaster: re "Swiss and rational"- look at UBS, re "Yank and optmimist", look at where their optimism has led hem to...
04 Feb 09 - 14:31 gmt
I Have No Hedge For Polyannas said ...
found on dealbreaker
25 most interesting financial articles this morning...links with thumbnails of every story inside one link.
bit.ly/info/XHOB
comments are cheeky.
a yank fintag, perhaps.
04 Feb 09 - 14:41 gmt
norwell105 said ...
From financial week article, but widely noted elsewhere: sounds like Fintag et al might be limited to 500K
Barney Frank: TARP's comp curbs could be extended to all businesses Would be part of broader bill limiting hedge funds, credit-raters, and mortgage securitizers ... He said the compensation restrictions would apply to all financial institutions and might be extended to include all U.S. companies.
04 Feb 09 - 15:29 gmt
Anonymous said ...
Mkts up = Morons dissapearence
04 Feb 09 - 15:51 gmt
Moron said ...
still here dont panic
04 Feb 09 - 15:55 gmt
anonymous said ...
how are those expensive shorts moron? you do realise that there is a cost of borrow i hope
04 Feb 09 - 16:14 gmt
Moron said ...
yup i do ... rough day today!
04 Feb 09 - 16:17 gmt
Super Mario said ...
Super Mario tip of the day: SPMIB buy @ 18200
04 Feb 09 - 16:28 gmt
MsR said ...
@Boaster: left out a word. Sorry I didn't quite believe your bit about oil revenues not going to any Americans...
Good morning Moron. Still in pyjamas?
04 Feb 09 - 16:52 gmt
Moron said ...
today for sure is Mr Hyde day...Dr Jekyll can go take a walk!!:)
04 Feb 09 - 16:53 gmt
Moron said ...
so now they decide to fade the rally...idiots!!
04 Feb 09 - 18:48 gmt
FSA said ...
John Meriwether has to be the greatest hedge fund marketer of all time.
I cannot even imagine how he starts a conversation about a new investment. "Right, so I lost 42% last year, 100% at LTCM. How about you invest $1bn with us. We are targetting a steady 10% you know."
04 Feb 09 - 20:34 gmt
AthenaDelphi said ...
Australia unveils $42Billion stimulus package. Australia having the hottest sweltering summer on records. I wonder if there's a correlation to temperature vs. dollar amount of stimulus package.
04 Feb 09 - 21:53 gmt
AthenaDelphi said ...
In DC its cold and snowing so we're now above the original $839billion package passed in the House of Representatives with bipartisan support to veto the bill but it still passed with 100% of democrats. Now O is looking for at least 12 republicans for the senate version but the amount has ballooned to $910b. and the weather is getting colder.
04 Feb 09 - 21:54 gmt
Richarlogo said ...
@KONG said ... Today I am half-German half-British. I want to take over the world but am too polite to try.
Krauts, played 2, lost 2, relagated Imperial Brits, prob the most pwnest of taking over the world in recent history, too polite to hang on it all though maybe Polite = that mysterious je ne say qua, that makes us 'The center of the Universe'