28JAN09:
Q1-09 DOW: 8900
Q2-09 DOW: 7250
Q3-09 DOW: 5810
Q4-09 DOW: 3960
CITI NATIONALIZED
OBAMA GETS SICK 27AUG09:
Mini Crash 21SEP09 Predicted correctly:
Bailout=Bonuses
Demise of Bear Stearns
Demise of Lehman Bros.
Demise of AIG
Subprime would cause problems
Date of 2007 crash
CRAs were to blame
G20 riots were a party
Northern Rock run
Northern Rock Nationalization
HBOS and RBS demise
UBS really was Useless
Yesterday was just an embarrassment. London, the financial capital of the world stopped working because the weather wasn't the right sort of weather. As the mayor of London was berated for uselessness and smugly told us snow was a once in a lifetime event so no need to spend tax payers monies on planning or doing anything constructive, we saw buses cancelled (even during the Blitz we managed to keep them running) and train drivers and school teachers staying at home to make snowmen. Brits - the slackers of the world. [Editor: Didn't I see you at the Berkeley Square Snow Fight yesterday?
A friend of mine has cancer. For the second time. She and another 10 sufferers out of a total of 12 who had appointments managed to get to their specialist hospital for chemotherapy treatment. Many knew the weather would be bad and stayed in hotels. However, they were all sent home because not one consultant arrived for work. I feel absolutely disgusted to be British so today I shall be French.
This morning I have seen people falling on ice. So why don't the leaders come up with some good ideas and solutions to mitigate against these sorts of mishaps? How about asking all home owners to clear the snow and ice outside their homes? Or fine all councils who didn't clear and grit key roads? You can buy ploughs on ebay so no excuses. How about free tea and arnica at all tube stations? Or handing out ski poles and tissues?
But of course by the time anything happens like this, That'll Be The Day I Die. So for all you who watched Groundhog Day on dvd last night, today will be much of the same.
So what am I going on about? In these choppy markets, emotions must count for nothing. Following the leader doesn't make sense either because there are no leading indicators [Editor: From sob story to shockingly irrelevant story]. But the trend is clearly down.
So for those Londoners who have had enough of being hit by snow balls on Primrose Hill thrown by hoodie gangs of unemployed investment bankers, and used other means to get into work, here is a summary of the news:
This paper studies monetary policy decision making by committee, using an experimental methodology. In an earlier paper (Blinder and Morgan 2005), we found that groups not only outperformed individuals, but they also took no longer to reach decisions. We successfully replicate those results here. Next, we find little difference between the performances of four person and eight-person groups; the larger groups outperform the smaller groups by a very small (and often insignificant) margin. Third, and most surprisingly, we find no evidence of superior performance by groups that have designated leaders. Possible reasons for that strongly counterintuitive finding are discussed.
Fintag says As I was saying ...
UBS HIRED MORE THAN 200 U.S. BROKERS WITH 'SUPER-SIZED' BONUSES
UBS AG, the Swiss bank under investigation for allegedly helping wealthy Americans evade taxes, hired more than 200 brokers in the U.S. in the fourth quarter as it sought to counter client defections.
UBS hired a team of five in Dallas from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. with $4 billion under management, and a group of the same number from Morgan Stanley in Houston with $2.1 billion in assets, Karina Byrne, a spokeswoman for the Zurich-based bank, said in an interview yesterday.
Fintag says I hope UBS did. Why would anyone want to leave Goldman for the Useless Bank of Switzerland unless there was a very big incentive?
Do hedge funds have human rights? In Europe, they just might.
Two hedge funds based in Britain — RAB Special Situations and SRM Global Master Fund — argued last month that the British government's nationalization of the failing bank Northern Rock amounted to a violation of the hedge funds' right to “peaceful enjoyment of possessions” set out in the first protocol to the European Convention on Human Rights.
The funds had invested heavily in Northern Rock and lost millions of pounds when the government took control of the company. RAB contends that Northern Rock was worth at least £3 a share when the government stepped in and seized the bank last February as part of a multibillion-pound bailout, wiping out its shareholders.
Fintag says I know I have looked at this story before but I think its very funny.
Our favorite midwestern hedge fund is turning things around. Let's get a show of hands for how many investors are retropsectively glad KG made them stick it out. He knows what's best for you.
Citadel Investment Group LLC, the Chicago-based hedge-fund firm whose largest funds lost about 55 percent last year, in January posted its first gain in seven months, according to an investor.
The Kensington and Wellington funds, which together manage about $9 billion, returned an estimated 4.75 percent, said the person
Fintag says Sometimes going to sleep for a very long time is a good idea.
HEDGE FUNDS FRUSTRATED BY INVESTORS, NOT MARKETS, IN 2008
While the bulk of the hedge fund industry suffered from drawdowns and redemptions last year, a handful of non-household funds actually generated the absolute returns that they are, by definition, after. But these under-the-radar managers say their relatively strong performances have still not won them an audience with all-important institutional investors.
Mark Ort, portfolio manager at Glazer Capital Management, says the firm gained 8.85% in 2008 on the strength of the singles and doubles that it hit in its tenth year of trading.
“Merger arbitrage is not so much about making money as it is about not losing money,” says Ort. “As long as you avoid a tremendous loss, you're going to do okay.”
Fintag says Absolutely. All these "Long Term" Investors masquerading as day traders is what irritates me. Probably even more than a cold snowball down the back of the neck.
financial news says " Hedge funds rein in their short selling "
Operating conditions in China's manufacturing sector declined in January, for the sixth consecutive month, according to the latest purchasing managers' index (PMI) published by CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets, This shouldn't come as much of a surprise given the global economic slowdown. What's worrying is that layoffs are on the rise, which could cause economic and political stability problems for China.
"Levels of new business fell for the sixth consecutive month in January," says CLSA in its latest PMI report. "Moreover, despite easing for a second month running, the rate of contraction remained considerable, reflecting rapidly deteriorating market conditions and fears of a deepening economic downturn."
Fintag says Is this being reported in China? And what is all this shoe throwing at its Premier? Before long, we will have to attend conferences bare foot.
fin facts says " China says about 20 million migrant workers have returned home after losing their jobs "
financial times says " China to go on European spending spree "
You know it's getting bad when employees find out that the serviettes are being rationed in the staff canteen.
One of our readers advises us that staff used to be able to help themselves to serviettes when purchasing food at the 'Grand Central Canteen' in Merrill Lynch's London HQ building close to St Paul's. Now, canteen staff hand them out one at a time when you pay for your food (although you will apparently begrudgingly be given an extra one if you insist). Never mind, it could be worse - at least there is a staff canteen there (for the moment).
Fintag says Where I come from they are called Napkins. Ooops, forgot. I am French today so yes, Serviettes it is.
Kanetsu Asset Management Co. will liquidate hedge funds, including Japan's best performer last year, as commodities trading shrinks, a company executive said.
The Tokyo-based firm will shut DragonHorse, which according to data provider Eurekahedge Pte returned 27 percent in 2008, the highest among Japan-based hedge funds. Kanetsu Asset will also close two other hedge funds before the firm shuts at the end of March, because computer-driven trading of commodities has become less viable as volumes have declined, President Takashi Ogura said in a telephone interview today.
Fintag says Good. More investors for me then.
'DISAPPOINTED' PERRY PARTNERS APOLOGIZES FOR FIRST LOSS
That's the message the hedge fund manager and political power player Richard C. Perry sent to his investors recently after his firm, Perry Partners, experienced its first annual loss in its 20-year history.
“We are deeply disappointed and apologize for these results,” the firm said in its annual review sent to clients on Jan. 20. Mr. Perry's flagship fund, Perry Partners International, declined 27 percent in 2008 after experiencing a 20 percent drop in the fourth quarter, according to the client letter, which was obtained by DealBook.
Fintag says Phew. We don't want Perry Partners to have the performance returns of a Madoff do we?
Hedge funds may soon be required to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission, but the move may not have the dramatic effects its proponents are hoping for. That's because the majority of U.S. hedge funds—managing the overwhelming majority of U.S. hedge fund assets—are already registered with the regulatory agency.
According to Hedge Fund Research, almost 55% of hedge fund firms located in the U.S. are currently registered with the SEC, which has been voluntary since July 2006. What's more, SEC-registered firms manage nearly 71% of all U.S.-based hedge fund capital, and about 60% of global hedge fund assets.
Fintag says Registration and regulation are two completely different things. Once the SEC starts doing the latter will investors feel more comfortable.
28 comments
anonymous said ...
To be French in the UK is the new black.
03 Feb 09 - 08:13 gmt
Moron said ...
the mess at citadel really cracks me up....how did they do it???...and they are still at it....they won't see a meaningful performance fee for the next 3-4 years if at all ever again!
03 Feb 09 - 09:32 gmt
Panta said ...
I am very disappointed..FIN why being French and not Italian...?? You broke my heart today...
Ps I am enjoing reading my mates status on FBook. Everybody just went crazy about this white crap..Are you insane...?? I had the worst 24h since a long time...white crap is for Ski Holidays... Read this on FB :XXX is felt like a kid again playing snow ball fight, London is definitely magical :)... I say london is definetly horrendous...and you must have some kind of mental disturb.
03 Feb 09 - 09:36 gmt
Moron said ...
london is a mess mate.....neurotic ghetto of a city...no way to live!
03 Feb 09 - 09:39 gmt
MsR said ...
@Panta: Yes, the notion of 'magical' London is one the media are loving aren't they? But then London media is an incestuous smugfest.
@Moron: it is one huge f**king mess Moron..Only here do people look at the productivity lost yesterday and say "Well that's what makes us who we are." I actually read that. People actually enjoy being losers. It gives me a lot to write about but it's sad.
03 Feb 09 - 09:46 gmt
PPSec said ...
Fin, you oblige me... I am delighted to hear that you re french today and I can not resist to invite you for a proper lunch: does a boeuf bourguignon with half a bottle of saint joseph would suit you?
03 Feb 09 - 09:53 gmt
MsR said ...
@Panta. Your english was better yesterday, however, we have the whole day:)
03 Feb 09 - 09:53 gmt
Moron said ...
what amazes me is when ppl are smug and utterly incompetent.....gives me high blood pressure.....u wanna be smug...first go and earn that right idiot!!
03 Feb 09 - 09:56 gmt
I Have No Hedge for Idiocy said ...
"So Erin, your argument is specious and smacks of being too far up Jamie Dimon's ass. Remove it, and study pooled capital before we decide to target you. Cuz it won't be pretty. We're an independent news site with no advertising so we can pretty much say whatever the hell we want."
SNIP
from DailyBail this morning. with video of burnett and Whalen
03 Feb 09 - 09:57 gmt
I Have No Hedge for Idiocy said ...
"Erin. One more time and with feeling. Banks would not have been able to pay bonuses to any staff if not for the capital injections from taxpayers. Stop with your nonsense about seperate pools of capital. Every single one of the large banks is insolvent: 30:1 leverage on shit assets is indeed a bitch. The taxpayer bailout via the Fed and Treasury is a morphine drip. The real action is yet to come. All the biggies will be effectively nationalized within 12 months."
03 Feb 09 - 09:58 gmt
anonymous said ...
I find it quite extraordinary how you can compare the Blitz to a foot of snow.
03 Feb 09 - 10:01 gmt
Panta said ...
@ MsR. Another very long day unfortunately... @ Moron...What happened mate? did I miss something?
03 Feb 09 - 10:02 gmt
Moron said ...
nothing mate...sometimes the nasty Moron comes out....but i try to keep him in control....bit like Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde:)))
03 Feb 09 - 10:06 gmt
MsR said ...
@10.01 I used to find it extraordinary when I first lived here but now I realize that the Blitz is compared to everything: Football matches, Diana dying, tubes not working, not having an M&S near you..:)
03 Feb 09 - 10:10 gmt
anonymous said ...
Bit anti-British here today!
03 Feb 09 - 10:27 gmt
Kraut said ...
you're right MsR, and although even my parents only faintly remember the blitz, it still is a big shame sometimes to be German...Brits are a great nation, me always had lots of fun in UK, you will sort that snow thing out...Germany sells grat snowploughs...
03 Feb 09 - 10:29 gmt
fitzcaraldo said ...
Bonne journée et bon courage, Fin...
03 Feb 09 - 10:30 gmt
Panta said ...
@Fitz:Bonne nuit et Bonne chance!!!
03 Feb 09 - 10:38 gmt
MsR said ...
@10.27..Not anti-Brit at all..a comment on cultural characteristics which have been observed. If not statistically sound, then anecdotally true.
03 Feb 09 - 10:49 gmt
MsR said ...
Anyway, Happy Trading. I am relying on you to get those money flows going; don't let me down. Merci et bonne journee
03 Feb 09 - 10:59 gmt
Tradebot said ...
Although physically impossible, the UK both sucks AND blows. Yesterday was a disgrace.
03 Feb 09 - 11:14 gmt
Panta's eleven (chapter) said ...
Important announcement to all the Hedgies...As Panta securities is officially broken and filling for chapter eleven...I officialy offers my services to anyone who is interested in..So if you are a "fun" manager and you need a "funny" italian broker in pan eu equities..I am your man... Please just keep me away from this blog..fin is like a drug.....
03 Feb 09 - 12:40 gmt
Ex-Pat said ...
We'll have a heat wave in the summer and London will stop working because its too hot.
Im off to America where they know how to deal with moderate weather
When the Govt doesnt know which way up the union flag goes, you know we are in trouble.
03 Feb 09 - 13:30 gmt
Sexist Pig said ...
@ Tradebot - reminds me of an ex
03 Feb 09 - 13:32 gmt
fitzcaraldo said ...
Fin, maybe you tell us tomorrow how it felt to be French for a day? A demain mon ami, bonne nuit..
03 Feb 09 - 14:19 gmt
Panta said ...
GP told his depressed patient: "I'm in love with your wife"...
HO MY GOD....
03 Feb 09 - 14:46 gmt
KONG said ...
And now even the government signals our distress by flying the flag upside down. What a bunch of complete mooks
03 Feb 09 - 16:30 gmt
AthenaDelphi said ...
O has just come out to say nO to buy american. sO, I guess that O's promises to the union workers and to other liberal groups may not come to fruition and thus they won't be too happy anymOre.
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