28JAN09:
Q1-09 DOW: 8900
Q2-09 DOW: 7250
Q3-09 DOW: 5810
Q4-09 DOW: 3960
CITI NATIONALIZED
OBAMA GETS SICK 27AUG09:
Mini Crash 21SEP09 Predicted correctly:
Bailout=Bonuses
Demise of Bear Stearns
Demise of Lehman Bros.
Demise of AIG
Subprime would cause problems
Date of 2007 crash
CRAs were to blame
G20 riots were a party
Northern Rock run
Northern Rock Nationalization
HBOS and RBS demise
UBS really was Useless
Last week I accused those under 30 years for causing the crash. My solution was to put them on a permanent gap year where they could hypocritically fly around the world exploiting the locals in Peruvian tribes wearing organic shirts and sneakers made by 3 year old children in China.
But this was wrong. Given the under 30s were responsible, they should be given the opportunity to sought out the mess. Being just over the other side of 30 [Editor: In your dreams] I was broiught up to believe in strong brand names and grey hairs. The solidity and strength of a brand run by a silver fox made us feel warm and secure.
But no more. Branding is all about exploitation. Take Gordon Ramsey. This man of the moment knows how to sell his brand. I used to boast that I could get a top table at one of his London restaurants. Now all I have to do is go to Heathrow T5 and order some sandwiches for my flight. The man has taken his brand, exploited it and like Damien Hirst (also over 30) taken us for a ride. When the likes of Merrill Lynch, Barclays and Goldman Sachs are all branded as greedy bankers, then the brand is bust.
So what is the answer to resolving this confidence of crisis? Don't ask me. Find a policeman and ask them for they will surely be under 30. As for the rest of us, let us party like mad and the kids can sort out the problem. Anyone fancy squatting in a large house soon to be vacant in Holland Park because the Russian Oligarch has fallen on hard money laundering times?
Still, it is the year of the Ox and times will be getting better. In the meantime we should perhaps hope all the over 30's succumb to some nasty disease that kills them all off. What do you think? [Editor: Not that you ever take any notice of anyone except yourself.]
In today's "no gloom" edition I have gone slightly off piste like an under 30 year old snowboarder. Hope you have the attention span of an under 30 year old to finish reading it.
Tories extend lead to 15 per cent as economic turmoil causes Labour collapse, 'Independent' poll reveals.
From bounce to backlash. The Conservative Party lead over Labour at the opinion polls has rocketed from five to 15 points in one month, with voters turning against Gordon Brown as the recession bites.
The ComRes survey for The Independent puts the Tories on 43 per cent (up four points on last month), Labour on 28 per cent (down six), the Liberal Democrats on 16 per cent (unchanged) and other parties on 13 per cent (up two). The research shows Labour at its lowest standing since September's survey; the party has slumped back to where it stood before Mr Brown won international plaudits for the Government's rescue of the banks last autumn.
Fintag says Of course the under 30s will have to be Old Etonians. For as I have mentioned before, the OE's are taking over the world. From the Prime Minister of Thailand, to the mayor of London; the sexiest man in America to a double barrelled Chef; the next PM of the UK and his many followers ...[Editor: What are you going on about?]
So the upshot is, the liberal champagners have had their chance. Now it is back to how it should be. Run by people who have done it all before.
telegraph says " British economy is on the brink "
Davos Man is the inhabitant of the ultra-chic Swiss ski resort which is home every year to the World Economic Forum, a gathering of the globe's most powerful politicians, businessmen and influence-mongers.
For years now, merchant bankers turned finance ministers and former finance ministers who have found time in their lives for a little light banking have mingled in the queues to hear masters of the universe explain how to sweat assets, add value and spread risk. Normally on to other people's balance sheets.
Fintag says And I bet he is over 30 too.
INTERNATIONAL HOUSING SURVEY SAYS UK, IRELAND, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND HAVE NO AFFORDABLE MAJOR URBAN MARKETS
An international housing survey has found that the UK, Ireland, Australia and New Zealand have no affordable major urban markets, while Canada has 10 (of 34) and the United States 77 (of 175). There are no moderately unaffordable urban markets (at and below 4 times household income) in Australia, New Zealand, Ireland and the United Kingdom.
Fintag says If the people cannot afford it, the prices will come down. Oh dear. All those asset rich, cash poor investors will be asset poor too. As I have said many times, until prices are less than 4 times salary then the prices will come tumbling down.
Why does anyone think a million GBP house in London is acceptable when the average salary is GBP23,000? And now there is no banking sector left and bonuses are a thing of the past, it sounds to me like the under 30's should go off to Goa for a year and come back and buy up that squat in Holland Park for the price of a Starbucks Naked smoothie.
The UK is truly ...
MANAGED ACCOUNT PLATFORM JV AIMS TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF INVESTOR SENTIMENT
IGS Group and MSS Capital have set up Managed Accounts and Governance Consultancy, a 50/50 joint venture partnership between the two companies. It has been created to design and build separate managed account platforms (SMAPs) for asset owners, hedge fund allocators and institutional investor clients.
Both companies have been involved in building and managing a total six SMAPs.
Fintag says I used to resist running managed accounts. Thanks to Madman Madoff this is no more. Today I only offer managed accounts because investors demand nothing but transparency and nosing around my positions. This is the world we live in. Good to see motor mouth John Godden behind this new venture - he is the UK's Jim Cramer but without the TV show.
City law firm Taylor Wessing is believed to be working on a plan to create a bank backed by six leading UK listed corporates disenchanted with the failing lending institutions in the Square Mile.
The firms are thought to have sounded out Glenn Cooper, the banking veteran famed for floating Manchester United, to head the new bank.
A City source said: "These guys are totally fed up with the problems with the inertia, so are looking to get together and create an institution that can lend to small and medium-sized firms. Given that most banks have horribly messy balance sheets, they figure it's easier to start from scratch."
Fintag says Isn't this what Private Equity was supposed to do? But of course these leaches were just brokers who pawned banks' balance sheets. I know I put my hand up last week to run the new privatised FSA but can I be the CEO of this one too? Us hedgies are in need of leverage.
Another European hedge fund giant suffered heavy outflows last year. Gottex Fund Management Holdings said it lost US$3.9 billion just last quarter due to negative performance, and foreign exchange and rebalancing factors.
Subscriptions for the quarter were US$260 million, which paled in comparison to redemptions of US$1 billion. The firm said foreign exchange and rebalancing factors reduced its AUM by US$1.31 billion last quarter, while performance related losses accounted for a decrease of US$1.8 billion.
Fintag says And not a Madman in sight ...just some poor Swissies wondering where it all went wrong.
TWENTY-FIVE PEOPLE AT THE HEART OF THE MELTDOWN ...
The worst economic turmoil since the Great Depression is not a natural phenomenon but a man-made disaster in which we all played a part. In the second part of a week-long series looking behind the slump, Guardian City editor Julia Finch picks out the individuals who have led us into the current crisis
Fintag says No, this is wrong. Where are the under 30 year old CDO traders, mortgage brokers, credit card addicts and handbag loving fashion victims? I bet this journalist was over 30. As usual, blinkered by age.
OBAMA PLANS MORE OVERSIGHT OF FUNDS, RATINGS FIRMS, NYT SAYS
President Barack Obama plans to tighten federal regulation of hedge funds, credit rating companies and mortgage brokers, the New York Times said.
Oversight of the financial instruments that played a part in the global economic crisis will be increased through legislation and by federal agencies, the report said, citing officials not identified and testimony before Congress.
Fintag says Words, words, words ...haven't we been here before?
Merrill Lynch CEO John Thain headed for the exits Thursday, after being called to a meeting with Bank of America chief Ken Lewis.
According to a Bank of America spokesperson, Thain, 53, is said to have 'agreed his situation was not working out, and that he should resign'. His departure came just a few hours after The Financial Times revealed that Merrill Lynch allegedly paid bonuses a month early, in December, to ensure that they were made before the firm was officially taken over by Bank of America. Bank of America was apparently told of this decision at the time, but it remains unclear exactly when Lewis was told that Merrill was to post a huge fourth-quarter loss.
Fintag says Thain is the sort of person that gives the over 30's a bad name. He is the Russell Brand of the silver hairs.
Hedge funds appear to be playing it safe when it comes to distressed investing, according to the results of a new survey released by Thomson Reuters HedgeWorld and the Dykema law firm.
The hedge fund industry, normally one of the greatest risk-takers in the financial world, has grown notably more conservative as their investors have started demanding their money back. It appears that the high returns associated with distressed investing are not as appealing as they once were — especially given the financial crisis and the deteriorating economy.
Fintag says We love distressed but we don't have the bank's money to play with. It is also an area where very old people have the expertise - asset stripping requires a bulldog accountant type who can see value where others see liabilities. We just aren't up to that task.
When I first read the headline, I thought it said " Hedge Funders Wary of Undressing ". So here is me undressed:
31 comments
anonymous said ...
redneck bailout rant...
at dailybail
hilarious...it's gone viral...
26 Jan 09 - 08:25 gmt
anonymous said ...
At least Cramer has some content. Godden doesnt have any
26 Jan 09 - 08:34 gmt
anonymous said ...
Very amusing this morning. I am being fired tomorrow so at least I ca out on a high. And I am 28
26 Jan 09 - 09:11 gmt
anonymous said ...
Tube drivers earn £42,000 basic salary for pressing stop, go, doors open. Where does your average salary number of £23,000 come from?
26 Jan 09 - 09:38 gmt
anonymous said ...
@anon08:34: here is some comfort for you: many of us (over 30, 40...) have been through this at least one time in our career, we had to reinvent ourselves many times, taking a year off if you can is not such a bad idea at your age and at my age only thinking about the attractions of Goa, Ibiza et al gives me a big thrill
26 Jan 09 - 09:51 gmt
anonymous said ...
Fin, your RE economics dont stand. Yes, it s 23 grand in average per person in London (7m ish people). You ll need 7m houses for your accounts to balance. There are no 7m houses in London.
26 Jan 09 - 09:59 gmt
MsR said ...
@9.38. Tube drivers are not the only non banking job in town! the lower salaries are in the main..teachers, nurses, cleaners, paramedics, shop assistants, police, firemen, all those people you need.. are not tube drivers. And they cannot afford London Are you a Daily Mail reader perchance?
26 Jan 09 - 10:33 gmt
fitzcaraldo said ...
Fin, great comments about "branding". All the great good old brands used to be small-scale manufacturers in cars shoes, whatever, once you leverage this reputation for craftsmanship to increase sales, usually the quality of the product is diluted on the way downstream...branding in financial services is rubbish, anyway, it's about the quality of the individual which cannot be leveraged...
26 Jan 09 - 10:54 gmt
Panta said ...
Back from Milan...The new London...It s unbelievieble as Italians are dealing with the crunch..Very easy There sn o crunch in italy...just permanent recession since 30 years..So everything as usual, partys restaurants...good sense of humour...probably I should re-allocate to milan...and for sure as a tube driver...
26 Jan 09 - 12:42 gmt
Jaa said ...
@panta... Agreed. I have been travelling there a lot over last 15 years and although the official stats have suggested the economy is weak, the experience tells another story. Simple, low levels of personnel indebtdness and 35% the economy is based on cash. Old way of doing biz is the best....
26 Jan 09 - 13:05 gmt
anonymous said ...
Finbar.. what a load of old drible... you used to have some interesting comments and insights.. been off colour of late.. return to form old boy.
26 Jan 09 - 13:06 gmt
Super Mario said ...
Fin - Will you be venturing to Davos this yr? I hear many former "masters of the universe" have declined their invitations this yr.
26 Jan 09 - 13:06 gmt
It is what it is said ...
Anon: 13.06: Have you considered that the reflective stuff is part of where we are today. If there 'aint no certanties, you can't magic them up. If the banks are shit, the banks are shit. Deal with it.
26 Jan 09 - 13:27 gmt
Panta said ...
From UK to the world...It s just the love...it s just the love... In Bob's world (Bob Sinclair..not the one you thought) Love is the answer.... Bob Sinclair Love Generation ...Y2005
Ps Probably for nowdays "World hold" on would be more accurate....
26 Jan 09 - 13:39 gmt
anonymous said ...
@panta: what have you been smoking?
26 Jan 09 - 15:19 gmt
Anonymous said ...
Hmmm SPX up over 2.5% today...just as i predicted last week the stampeding herd would return soon, and Morons few seconds of fame would dissapear
26 Jan 09 - 15:20 gmt
Mr. Bean said ...
What's the opposite of dribble dribble dribble? lol
26 Jan 09 - 15:23 gmt
Moron said ...
fascinating....one up day and u think the world is changing.....be my guest mate....go all in long.....put ur money where ur mouth is:))
26 Jan 09 - 15:29 gmt
Panta said ...
@Anon 13.39: lol always firstquality stuff...(Moquette, as my french dear collgues use to say....
26 Jan 09 - 15:36 gmt
anonymous said ...
Moron - it's not that. Your short call was obviously good. It's just annoying that you are silent on up days, and arrogantly noisy on down days.
26 Jan 09 - 15:36 gmt
HB said ...
Radovan Karadzic is a big fan of weaving and moquette
26 Jan 09 - 15:53 gmt
Moron said ...
thats a fair point....if u knew me u would know that i don't do arrogance.....i have enuff experience in this business to know that everytime u get arrogant the market just slaps u across the face.....also i maintain that we are in a bear market...its gonna get a lot lot worse....we have not seen anywhere near the bottom.....but there will be ferocious bear market rallies along the way.....imho:)
26 Jan 09 - 15:56 gmt
Panta said ...
Is not a question of being bullish or bearish (personally I have shorted even my mother)...the point is that there are no volumes at all...I think business is finished for a while...traders brokers Bankers etc...both above or under 30 are done the same way...There is a model to rebuild...and we have no idea on the next model...
26 Jan 09 - 16:11 gmt
Moron said ...
yup u said it...and its funny how the man on the street seems to realize this a lot more than we in this business do......!!!
26 Jan 09 - 16:15 gmt
Panta said ...
@Moron...well my first Boss used to say to me: In this business you can learn even from your cleaner...
26 Jan 09 - 16:25 gmt
Moron said ...
yup...all the birds i chatted up this weekend ...the first question as usual was what do u do....answer ...hedge fund manager......the next thing i heard was ..... great so u r all basically scr*wed:))))
26 Jan 09 - 16:43 gmt
Jaa said ...
there are still plenty of oppurtunities to make money in this mkt.. this move has just presented one.. i am buying puts, this move is fo suckers
26 Jan 09 - 16:44 gmt
MsR said ...
@Panta: And now we're smoking Class B it's much more fun than Class C, don't you think?
26 Jan 09 - 16:45 gmt
MsR said ...
@Moron: Well at least you know if they want you for you or for the money. Not that I think you'd get taken for a mug...
26 Jan 09 - 16:59 gmt
Panta said ...
@Jaa...I agree with you. There s always opportunity to make money in every market...you can go either short, or long thats the beauty..Problem is human being tend to be naturally long even in the worst market conditions...
Ps Personally I am useless Broken Borker so I m playing the national lottery every week..That is my ooportunity..lol
26 Jan 09 - 17:10 gmt
Moron said ...
there is still money to be made for sure...just not as much or as easily...and thats the problem....