28JAN09:
Q1-09 DOW: 8900
Q2-09 DOW: 7250
Q3-09 DOW: 5810
Q4-09 DOW: 3960
CITI NATIONALIZED
OBAMA GETS SICK 27AUG09:
Mini Crash 21SEP09 Predicted correctly:
Bailout=Bonuses
Demise of Bear Stearns
Demise of Lehman Bros.
Demise of AIG
Subprime would cause problems
Date of 2007 crash
CRAs were to blame
G20 riots were a party
Northern Rock run
Northern Rock Nationalization
HBOS and RBS demise
UBS really was Useless
It has been a bit quiet on the awards front recently. And for good reasons too. I have been looking out for ABS House of the Year, or Best Bank to Have In Your Portfolio, or maybe CEO Who Asset Stripped The Most From His Bank award, but alas none found. Instead, all eyes are on the Oscars.
During the Great Depression (not this one, the last one), Hollywood excelled. Fantasy and escapism were the new order and hungry, shoeless and dirty urchins spent days in the movie houses keeping warm and lusting after the untouchables.
Hollywood loves a good depression, and one senses that the Oscars are the start of a new honeymoon for Tinseltown. Interestingly the films and actors up for awards are from all over the world, mostly Britain actually, and here are my forecasts:
Picture: Slumdog Millionaire Actress: Kate Winslet Actor: Sean Penn Supporting Actress: Marisa Tomei Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger Director: Danny Boyle
In times of uncertainty, it is easier for me to have a punt at some flesh than some volatile bits of paper.
Enough of this frivolity. Today's viral is about History repeating itself. Britain is very sick. It used to be the sick man of Europe but alas it is sick man of the world. But like catching a cold, I think it will get better and others will soon take its place. The Public Debt / GDP ratios are shooting up alarmingly and Europes hotch potch of countries look like they are heading into Japanese territory of 90%.
Happy Lunar New Year.
F1 BOSS BERNIE ECCLESTONE HIRES GUY RITCHIE'S LAWYER IN DIVORCE BATTLE FOR OFF-SHORE MILLIONS
Bernie Ecclestone faces a desperate legal battle to claw back hundreds of millions of pounds he stashed in offshore bank accounts under his estranged wife's name.
During his marriage to former model Slavica, the Formula One supremo handed a large proportion of his £2.4billion fortune to his wife, to keep beyond the reach of the UK taxman.
Fintag says Bernie, well his wife, has a lot of investments in Hedge Funds (including mine by chance) and I thought this was quite amusing. For his estranged wife that is.
The next set of site tweaks are in the queue, and the people have spoken: Its not a full blown redesign, but rather, a series of minor upgrades and improvements. The biggest visual changes are going to be making the top header reduced in size, and moving the flash to the Cafe.
Note: The original redesign (TBP 2.0) was way behind schedule, and to get it launched by November — original launch date was July — I cut things out and compromised on others, just to get it done. On the advice of several web designers and programmers including readers), they said get something done, and then tweak/polish TBP 2.5 later — which is now.
Fintag says Just to let you know that it is not only I who is diversifying his blog to avoid gloom and doom boredom. The Big Picture has been redecorating its website and telling us all about it. Nice.
NEW AGE SQUATTERS TAKE OVER £30M PARK LANE MANSIONS WITH VIEWS OF HYDE PARK
A group of new age squatters has taken over two mansions worth £30 million in one of London's most exclusive addresses, claiming they were forced to do so by the economic crisis.
Surrounded by hedge fund offices and showrooms displaying Rolls Royce and Lotus cars, the two early 19th century houses are just a short stroll from the Dorchester Hotel.
Fintag says You will not believe me, but I know one these artists and have a couple of their photographs in my office. I have had to take them down, just in case. Really, I am not lying.
DARLING KEPT IN DARK AS FSA LIFTED SHORT-SELLING BAN
Shares in high street banks have crashed since the ban was removed at the end of last week.
The report said the Chancellor is thought to have been given just one hour's notice by the Financial Services Authority that the ban would be lifted.
Mr Darling has no authority to tell the FSA what to do, but it is believed he strongly advised it not to lift the ban, according to the report. It said Mr Darling believed the ban will have to be reintroduced, given the fragility of the financial system.
Fintag says Good.
reuters says " Data shows no evidence of UK bank short-selling "
MICROSOFT CUTS 5,000 JOBS AS RECESSION CURBS GROWTH
Microsoft Corp. will cut as many as 5,000 jobs, the first companywide firings in its 34-year history, and said sales and profit will probably drop as the recession eats into software demand. The stock fell the most since 2000.
Fintag says Good.
JP MORGAN TAKES TOP SPOT FOR NORTH AMERICAN PRIME BROKERS
JP Morgan topped prime broker rankings for North America for the first time, reflecting the changing landscape in the hedge fund services sector after a year of unprecedented upheaval in the hedge fund and banking industries, according to data provider Eurekahedge.
Fintag says Incredible. For years, JP Morgan stamped its large foot as Goldman and Morgan took the prize. Thanks to a cheap purchase of Bear Stearns and the rapid departure of Hedge Funds from the golden two, because of balance sheet issues, JP Morgan has got top spot.
They should get an award. Luckiest Bank of The Year.
Alistair Darling should tell taxpayers the true cost of his multibillion-pound schemes to bail out the banking system, MPs demand.
A critical report from a Labour-dominated Commons committee, published today, says that the Treasury is failing to reveal the “significant liabilities” it assumed when it took over ailing financial institution
PwC has recently released an interesting discussion paper proposing changes to fair value accounting. They do not propose eliminating fair value accounting - thankfully - but they do suggest that, for banks, only "credit related" losses be reflected in net income (this is, of course, the headline number that everyone focuses on for publicly traded entities.) Other changes in current market value unrelated to the borrower's ability to repay a loan, such as write downs due to an illiquid or dysfunctional market, would be recorded in "other comprehensive income". OCI is essentially a bucket for items that companies don't want to pass through their reported, "business" P&L
Fintag says The first time I learned about Fair Value when as a nipper at Goldmorgan Stanley. I thought it was hilarious until I realised that is what my living would be based on. So I got close to my valuation group, the nerdy middle office accountants and gave them warm glows and highly praised them at bonus time. Those were the days ...
Britain risks bankruptcy and a humiliating bailout by the International Monetary Fund because of Gordon Brown's borrowing, David Cameron said yesterday.
Fintag says History repeating itself.
I have a beautiful James Bond 6536 Rolex from the later 1950s. It is full restored and probably costs more than your Audi TT. However, I no longer wear it in public. It is not right. In fact I have bought a duffle jacket and steel capped boots. Just in case. Now I understand why the ultra rich old monies dress so badly. It is so not to draw attention.
The government said Thursday it has distributed an additional $1.5 billion to 39 banks nationwide as part of the $700 billion financial rescue program.
The latest capital infusions, which were made on Jan. 16, bring the total amount used to buy bank stock to $193.8 billion. Nearly 300 banks in 43 states and Puerto Rico have received support through the program.
Fintag says Please Sir, can I have some more ...where is mine?
MORGAN STANLEY: HEDGE FUND ASSETS TO FALL ANOTHER 37% IN '09
Morgan Stanley's Huw van Steenis predicts that the global hedge fund assets may fall below $1 trillion this year. Van Steenis said that hedge funds are on track to lose $450 billion in assets to withdrawals and market losses, a 37% decline from the $1.2 trillion they managed on New Years Day. That would be an even larger drawdown than last year, when hedge funds lost $600 billion in assets, one-third of what they started the year with.
Fintag says And that is a 37% fall in Morgan Stanley's revenue too. Ha!
Does this mean I should be reducing the length of this newsletter? Good - this means 37% more time in the gym oggling those fit women that are way beyond even my charisma and wit.
bloomberg says " Hedge Fund Assets May Fall $450 Billion After Worst Performance "
John Thain was ousted from Bank of America on Thursday, just three weeks after closing the sale of Merrill Lynch to BofA, plunging the company into crisis and raising new questions about the government's efforts to save the banking industry.
Mr Thain, a former Goldman Sachs president who earned the nickname “Mr Fix-it” while chief executive of the New York Stock Exchange, had taken charge of Merrill only 13 months earlier to rescue the bank after it suffered massive losses under his predecessor, Stan O'Neal.
Fintag says I met the man once but he didn't shake my hand. If I was to use the word "Arrogant" to describe someone it would be him. Thain makes Fuld look like a loser.
HEDGE FUND MADE MILLIONS BETTING ON BARCLAYS CRASH
One of London's most successful hedge funds has made £12m in just four days by betting on a fall in the Barclays share price, a move that will heighten the controversy over so-called short-selling strategies.
Lansdowne Partners, which also profited from the fall in the share price of Northern Rock at the height of its problems, sold Barclays shares last Friday - when the bank lost almost a quarter of its value in frenzied trading - and bought them back again on Wednesday after they had fallen by almost £1.
Fintag says And Lansdowne need those profits too ...a great trade.
Protests against governments and banks have increased in some European countries as the global economy has deteriorated.
Here are details of some of the protests around Europe:
* ICELAND:
-- Police used teargas against anti-government protesters when a demonstration outside parliament turned violent on Thursday.... BULGARIA LITHUANIA LATVIA GREECE
Fintag says Yes, I am off to buy a gas mask and a hoodie.
It seems that the future of Duff Capital Advisors, the freshly-minted hedge fund run by former Morgan Stanley executive Phil Duff, is not looking so bright.
According to The New York Post, the hedge fund, which launched nine months ago with a $500 million seed investment, is cutting 80 percent of its staff — before it has even raised investment capital. A spokesman for Duff told the Post that the firm has been “rightsizing” as it faces the same challenges as other hedge funds.
A fund controlled by Santander, one of Europe's biggest banks, heaped praise on Bernard Madoff weeks before his arrest for an alleged $50bn fraud, calling his market timing “impeccable” in a report to investors that lawyers say raises questions about the bank's risk controls.
Asset managers at the Spanish bank's Optimal hedge fund investment arm, whose clients were among the biggest losers in the Madoff scandal, told institutional investors they were impressed by Mr Madoff's ability “to find great entry and exit points to benefit investors”.
Fintag says And what do the Spanish know about fund management? Spain is a building site. Just like Iceland and Scotland, these people came from nowhere thinking they knew everything. Serves them right. [Editor: Harsh. Can't sell your Spanish Villa by any chance?]
24 comments
Johnny Rotten said ...
Anarchy in the UK. History repeating itself.
23 Jan 09 - 07:59 gmt
anonymous said ...
Long Viv Westwood, short the establishment
23 Jan 09 - 08:11 gmt
anonymous said ...
great clsoing remark about Spain's real estate bubble. Bankers in Spain do not have a clue about investment management and the quality of real estate is really bad. Am posting this as anon today because I live in Barcelona...
23 Jan 09 - 08:41 gmt
fitzcaraldo said ...
"Thain's swift removal follows the news that he spent 1.2 m carefully crafting his office at Merrill...", look up efinancialcareers, views, "Exit Thain" for a detailed list of furniture, carpets, etc. including "commode on legs", good Friday fun...
23 Jan 09 - 08:49 gmt
KONG said ...
I got an email from a developer wanting to sell me a Villa in Spain only yesterday. I nearly fell off my chair laughing.
23 Jan 09 - 09:13 gmt
Jaa said ...
just read Harry Markopolis' letter to SEC detailing reasons why Bernie Madodd was operating ponzi scheme, sorry to bring this up again , but the letter is well worth a read .. interested?
23 Jan 09 - 09:43 gmt
fitzcaraldo said ...
@KONG, yes there still is a fair amount of denial of reality going on in Spain...for three decades people believed they could defy conventional economic wisom, and it worked, until now...
23 Jan 09 - 09:43 gmt
EE demonstrations said ...
It was not demonstrations that turned violent, just some skinheads appeared with rocks and gas bombs, molotov's and grabbed the opportunity to show themselves. Some believe special agencies of certain countries helped them...It is like you drink 20 bears and eat a sausage, ant put the blame on sausage that your head hurts in the morning...
23 Jan 09 - 09:44 gmt
Tradebot said ...
Spain is the next UK...
23 Jan 09 - 09:52 gmt
damiendamien said ...
I do hope Catalonia does the whole anarchist republic thing they did in the civil war. Barcelona is super happy fun times.
23 Jan 09 - 10:02 gmt
Moron said ...
it seems to me that the market has stopped going up for the moment:))
23 Jan 09 - 10:26 gmt
Jaa said ...
dribble action me thinks??
23 Jan 09 - 10:39 gmt
Moron said ...
this market is traded by dribbling morons:)))
23 Jan 09 - 11:06 gmt
anonymous said ...
Just been reviewing the governments actions, over the last 12 months blow by blow. what a useless bunch of cun*s.
23 Jan 09 - 11:28 gmt
anonymous said ...
"Thain makes Fuld look like a loser."
I don't understand. Fuld was unmasked as a loser. So should that be Thain makes Fuld look like a winner?
23 Jan 09 - 12:26 gmt
damiendamien said ...
Thain's done well, his responsibiltiy was to ML shareholders (and to a certain extent his staff) not to BoA. They made out like bandits, Thain likely makes office goof-up on purpose to get pushed out. He then takes over the good part of Citi from Pandit.
23 Jan 09 - 12:36 gmt
anonymous said ...
The biggest losers are ken lewis and eric daniels. Each has brought their business to its knees through ego fuelled m&a lunacy. Dodge a bullet, dodge a bullet, shoot yourself in the head.
23 Jan 09 - 12:54 gmt
Tradebot said ...
yes, I am amazed Kenny Lewis and Eric Daniels are still in a job. Especially Eric Daniels, what the fk was he thinking about when Gordon Brown came begging him to buy HBOS? At least Merrill had *some* prestige and ripples of profitable businesses left, but everybody knew HBOS was a basket case with only one outcome : utter failure.
23 Jan 09 - 14:02 gmt
fitzcaraldo said ...
good night and good luck...
23 Jan 09 - 14:43 gmt
Moron said ...
dribblee dum dum!!
23 Jan 09 - 14:45 gmt
Tradebot said ...
hmm, i think the gold rally is starting... hmm hmm when to start shorting the 10 year govis though. hmm.
23 Jan 09 - 16:59 gmt
Mr Didgeridoo said ...
I can quite see why Bernie E fell in with Slavica. There are only so many women on whom you can spray while bellowing: "take that, you hooerrr!"
25 Jan 09 - 07:14 gmt
G. Soros said ...
Britain was just three hours away from going bust last year after a secret run on the banks, one of Gordon Brown's Ministers has revealed--Mail OnLIne
Wonder how many minutes today we are from another run or nationalising the entire financial system??
facebook
free daily e-mail
feed
