28JAN09:
Q1-09 DOW: 8900
Q2-09 DOW: 7250
Q3-09 DOW: 5810
Q4-09 DOW: 3960
CITI NATIONALIZED
OBAMA GETS SICK 27AUG09:
Mini Crash 21SEP09 Predicted correctly:
Bailout=Bonuses
Demise of Bear Stearns
Demise of Lehman Bros.
Demise of AIG
Subprime would cause problems
Date of 2007 crash
CRAs were to blame
G20 riots were a party
Northern Rock run
Northern Rock Nationalization
HBOS and RBS demise
UBS really was Useless
Bank of England: “Hello, can we help?” Big Scottish Bank: “It's us. We need more taxpayer's money." Bank of England: “I see from our records we gave you 20 billion sterling last quarter. You told us there would be no more bad debts.” Big Scottish Bank: “Yes, that is true but we have found some more. They were tucked away in the commercial lending department. Seems we lent a lot of money to HBOS.” Bank of England: “Oh I see. How much do you want this time?" Big Scottish Bank: “What is on offer?” Bank of England: “Well we just bought 50 billion of bad debts from HBOS. Strangely, they were loans to you. How much did you lend HBOS?” Big Scottish Bank: “50 billion too.” Bank of England: “So you want us to buy your debt to HBOS having just bought HBOS debt that you owe?” Big Scottish Bank: “Can't we just net them off?" Bank of England: “I don't think that is a good idea.” Big Scottish Bank: “Why is that?” Bank of England: “We have a large waiting list of companies wanting bail outs, you know, car manufacturers, the drinks industry and some large retailers.” Big Scottish Bank: “Of course. You need to look after us, not the undeserving. So how about increasing it to 100 billion, just in case?” Bank of England: “Excellent. The cheque is in the post.”
No Fun I watched Million Dollar Traders last night. Well about 5 minutes. It was so bad I had to go to the pub. The series is set on the ground floor of Austin Friars, a serviced office just off London Wall in the City (why not Mayfair? Too expensive probably and explains why they never made any money) and 8 novice traders pretend to run a Hedge Fund. The Times loves it so it must be good. My fear is they will make more money than my quants did in 2008.
Fun I was very impressed by the answers to my new year quiz. They ranged from 1973 to 2009. The houses and apartments for sale came from a copy of the Evening Standard Magazine I photographed in a thrift shop. The date was ... 1989.
So well done to those who spotted the GTI Golfs and Pine Furniture. Have a drink on me.
Reality So another Scottish bank kills off the prudent Scottish image? Even Andy Murray is turning into a fighting Brit. Scotland is changing. But before you send me hate mail, I have relatives in Scotland. Well they actually own large chunks of land but rarely visit - all those midges. [Editor: I thought you grew up on a council estate and were an orphan?]
News 2007 features heavily today. The Scots are bashed and the UK reveals the identity of the Stig and it's own Bernie Madoff. We also reuse some photos and question the meaning of life.
The government's latest plan to counter the economic downturn by encouraging lending has been criticised, and sent banks' shares tumbling.
Opposition MPs argued that the government's measures were inadequate and too many details remained unknown.
Fintag says It beggars belief. I feel like I am sitting by a bomb ready to explode. And when it does, a large tax return will come my way and my assets will be Nationalized.
On Friday the FSA lifted their ban on shorting Financials and on Monday some of us made a killing shorting the Scots.
GORDON GEKKO TO RETURN IN SEQUEL AS FILM-MAKERS TRADE ON CREDIT CRUNCH
The fictional character, originally played by Michael Douglas in a contrast-collar shirt and braces, will return in a new film being made by 20th Century Fox.
The sequel, to be written by stockbroker-turned-scriptwriter Allan Loeb, will see Gekko released from prison following his 1980s crimes and attempt to recapture his glory days.
Fintag says Interesting how even Hollywood, that fantasy making institution, has struggled to keep up with Financial events. It wasn't that long ago when Gordon "Don't call me Brown" Gekko was going to star in the sequel as a corrupt hedgie. Now the script is changing so he is to be a corrupt ...err hedgie.
Back in August 2007 we found this :
telegraph says " Bernard Madoff: How the scandal worked "
HEDGE FUND INDUSTRY COULD BECOME THE INVESTMENT BANKS OF THE FUTURE
Mark Twain said that visiting a fortune-teller “was just as good as going to the opera, and the cost scarcely a trifle more — ergo, I will disguise myself and go again”. But he was visiting a clairvoyant at the height of 19th-century America; today in Britain, he'd be as likely to find himself talking to a hedge fund manager if he was seeking enlightenment about the future — and it might not be as much fun, either.
Hedge fund managers have made a healthy living in the past from predicting trends, but it is a precarious business at the best of times, and now is not the best of times. Few are willing to put money on what will happen to their industry in the future. True, despite 2008 being the worst year on record for the industry, they are bullish, claiming that it will survive and, in the long term, flourish, but after that things get complicated. There are almost as many opinions on how the industry will need to change to achieve this as there are investment strategies.
Fintag says Hang on, that is my prediction. FiNTAG has been boasting this proposition for years. Good to see the hacks are catching up.
"Hedge funds are the new Investment Banks - but without the overheads." FiNTAG 19 October 2007
OBAMA TO BECOME AMERICA'S 44TH PRESIDENT TODAY; FIRST NON-WHITE AMONG 43 MEN TO HOLD THE OFFICE SINCE 1789
Barack Obama will become America's 44th President today and will make history as the first non-white among 43 men to hold the office since 1789.
Grover Cleveland, the twenty-second (1885-1889) and twenty-fourth (1893-1897) President of the United States, was the only president who served in non-consecutive terms. Democrat Governor Cleveland of New York had a narrow win in 1884 following a controversy, which swung some Irish votes his way after a Protestant pastor had termed the antecedents of the Democrats as having been "Rum, Romanism, and Rebellion." Two decades before, the Irish were strong supporters of the racist Democratic Party; they opposed the 1863 Emancipation Proclamation because of fear of jobs competition from former slaves and during the Union Army Draft riots in the summer of 1863, had lynched blacks on the streets of New York.
Fintag says Good luck. At last we have a chain smoking, basketball playing, ripped intellectual lawyer as US president. Oh, and he has African roots. Come on people, he is a human being. Unfortunately he is being treated like Buzz Lightyear - he thinks he can fly and so do his many cohorts. But we know that isn't the case ...
Thomson Reuters has expanded its machine-readable news offering to include real-time analysis on key news events. The service has the capacity to help predict market volatility and returns.
Known as NewsScope Event Indices (NEI), the service has been developed with AlphaSimplex Group. It will enable clients to more easily incorporate news into trading and risk management strategies.
Fintag says Good to see Reuters has discovered the internet.
The Financial Services Authority said yesterday that it would let banks reduce their capital ratios in a move that brings the regulator's guidance in line with the Government's demands that the banks should lend to support the economy.
The City watchdog said that the capital ratios it demanded of the banks in October's sector bailout - about 8 per cent for "tier one" capital - were not set in stone as new minimums. Instead, they were designed to restore confidence in the financial system by giving banks big enough cushions to absorb recession-level losses.
Fintag says So what is the point of capital ratios? As a hedge fund manager regulated in the UK, I have to have these bizarre Tier 1 to 3 capital levels. They are not only meaningless but nobody has ever given me a good explanation as to what the purpose of them is. Lehman, Bear Stearns, UBS and RBS certainly hadn't a clue either.
As the banker being widely held responsible for the biggest corporate loss in British history, Sir Fred Goodwin was unsurprisingly not receiving callers at his handsome Victorian villa in Edinburgh yesterday.
The 50-year-old motorsport fan, who less than three years ago was in pole position as the globe's most dynamic and acquisitive banker, lives in the same well-heeled corner of the Scottish capital as the Harry Potter author, J K Rowling, and other luminaries of Edinburgh society.
Fintag says Another Scot pretending to be frugal and prudent.
So Freddie Goodwin is the UK's Bernie Madoff? Anything they can do we can do better ...
Analysts polled by Reuters expect the Consumer Prices Index to have dropped sharply for the month, to an annual rate of 2.7%, from 4.1% in November.
The headline Retail Prices Index rate of inflation is predicted to drop below 1%, from November's annual rate of 3%.
Fintag says And many other things are falling off too. Where is that green card? Come on Obama, I am your greatest supporter. You like minorities - I am an anonymous blogger. It is dangerous out here and I need political asylum.
finalternatives says " Hedge Funds Help Fund Obama Inauguration "
New York Times Co. received $250 million in financing from companies controlled by Mexican billionaire Carlos Slim as the newspaper industry confronts plummeting advertising revenue and tighter credit markets.
In return, Banco Inbursa SA and Inmobiliaria Carso will get senior unsecured notes due in 2015 with detachable warrants, New York Times said in a statement yesterday. The publisher plans to use the funds to refinance existing debt, including money borrowed under a revolving credit facility that matures in May.
Fintag says If the London's Evening Standard can be sold to a Russian KGBer then why not the New York Times to a Mexican? Money Launderers unite [Editor: Steady ...]
IDENTITY OF TOP GEAR'S THE STIG REVEALED AS BEN COLLINS
To the viewers of Top Gear, he is part man, part machine, with veins that course with petrol. But the true substance of “the Stig”, the BBC programme's so-called tame racing driver, was revealed yesterday to be somewhat more prosaic.
The identity of the character, who test-drives cars around the Top Gear track, was divulged at the weekend as Ben Collins, a Bristol-based former American speedway driver and stuntman who doubled for Daniel Craig in the latest James Bond film.
Fintag says Shocking stuff. As I said, being in this space is dangerous.
HELP IRELAND OR IT WILL EXIT EURO, ECONOMIST WARNS
The stimulus plan the U.S. government is currently considering is necessary to help American citizens, but it will likely not reverse the country's economic decline, hedge fund manager and billionaire philanthropist George Soros said on Monday.
"It is not enough to turn the situation around," Soros told the U.S. Conference of Mayors about the $850 billion proposal to increase spending and cut taxes.
Fintag says Is Soros ever wrong? Maybe Obama should hire him.
24 comments
Stig said ...
Dont believe the Stig hype, i was told by my advanced driving instructor that the Stig is a number of people, including a woman.
20 Jan 09 - 08:41 gmt
Tradebot said ...
First! maybe Ireland could join the Pound. It sure is depreciating fast enough.
20 Jan 09 - 08:44 gmt
damiendamien said ...
David McWilliams is very, very annoying and very smart. He has a blog, do add his feed. I reckon he'll try and get elected at some point. Still very annoying.
20 Jan 09 - 09:06 gmt
Alex said ...
Yesterday you told "UBS and Citi are so useless". Why? What you think about banking? Thanks Alex
20 Jan 09 - 09:18 gmt
MsR said ...
@Alex: I think we can safely assume from this blog that Fin thinks banks are generally up sh*t creek without a paddle. No?
20 Jan 09 - 09:36 gmt
KONG said ...
Good article from Vince Cable in the Times today. Shame he's a Lib Dem.
20 Jan 09 - 09:48 gmt
Panta said ...
....YES WE CAN...!!!
20 Jan 09 - 09:50 gmt
DailyBail.com said ...
@Fin: have been reading your site every day since i found it 13 months ago...today i launched dailybail.com we ae a site focused on the bailouts...exclusively...we gather information from all over and provide it to our readers in one spot...along with commentarty and original content...we are snarky and will probably get sued in our first month...i encourage you and your readers to check us out when you have a moment...thanks for allowing me to post...
dailybail.com
20 Jan 09 - 10:38 gmt
dizzy banker said ...
>> Anything they can do we can do better ... you better you better you bet :o)
Speakin' of the 80ies: did I mention already I'm now in possession of the whole of 'Shane Longman" adventures on DVD ? hoooh, what a lucky man me was ...
20 Jan 09 - 11:00 gmt
DailyBail.com said ...
@Fin: and readers...am looking for feedback from this readership about dailybail.com site since it's still in beta...please leave feedback for me here or over there...i will be reading both...again much appreciated and i will not again post about my site...thanks
20 Jan 09 - 11:23 gmt
12 year old said ...
i like the drawings.
20 Jan 09 - 12:25 gmt
Panta said ...
Roubini predicts Us financial losse could reach 3.6 Trillion USD This means That US banking system is effectly insolvent...
OH MY GOD.......
Ps What about UK?
20 Jan 09 - 12:47 gmt
Panta said ...
Has anyone seen the movie "28 Weeks Later"?.....
20 Jan 09 - 12:53 gmt
anonymous said ...
Just out of interest how are people liking the blackberry storm?
20 Jan 09 - 13:44 gmt
Tradebot said ...
heh, good one Panta. in the words of Jim Rogers, "UK is finished".
20 Jan 09 - 13:49 gmt
Panta said ...
ehe Tradebot...I am waiting for code red command...Meaning we are all infected and "intoxicated"
20 Jan 09 - 13:58 gmt
anonymous said ...
The storm is crap. the keyboard doesnt work if you have large thumbs. give it a miss
20 Jan 09 - 14:03 gmt
Panta said ...
Take the new curve 8900...It s really good
20 Jan 09 - 14:15 gmt
MsR said ...
@Panta: Given your love of cooking dinner maybe it's time to cook a Last Supper..could be fun
20 Jan 09 - 14:48 gmt
anonymous said ...
RBS, UBS, CBS, ABS, MBS, OBS - all a load of BS
20 Jan 09 - 15:15 gmt
Moron said ...
poor Obama...he doesn't even know what he iswalking into.....its like a rookie soldier traipsing into a minefield with a big smile on his face and cheers all around...this will end in tears as well:)))
20 Jan 09 - 15:27 gmt
Panta said ...
@MsR....That is a really good idea..Lol...and everyone could play a role....Jesus, Giuda, etc You are invited...as well...
20 Jan 09 - 16:10 gmt
anonymous said ...
why does this inauguration look like a funeral?
20 Jan 09 - 16:51 gmt
Super Mario said ...
This is a good idea Panta...Fancy dress party for Hedgies
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