28JAN09:
Q1-09 DOW: 8900
Q2-09 DOW: 7250
Q3-09 DOW: 5810
Q4-09 DOW: 3960
CITI NATIONALIZED
OBAMA GETS SICK 27AUG09:
Mini Crash 21SEP09 Predicted correctly:
Bailout=Bonuses
Demise of Bear Stearns
Demise of Lehman Bros.
Demise of AIG
Subprime would cause problems
Date of 2007 crash
CRAs were to blame
G20 riots were a party
Northern Rock run
Northern Rock Nationalization
HBOS and RBS demise
UBS really was Useless
I don't have a cat and if I did I would be stroking it all day. Cats are good for stress and I feel stressed. Not for any particular reason, but maybe it is because the news is the same old same and it feels like we are edging a little closer to another precipice.
Unemployment rises, printing presses are switched on and demand for long dated bonds is starting to wane. The focus is still on the Madoff soap opera but most of us are trying to see what is positive about running smaller and shrinking funds.
I may get a Cat. All the best villains have a cat, although I recall Sid Vicious liked to eat cats.
Advert Yesterday I launched the a proper book. FINTAG'S CRAP CARTOONS 2009: THE DIRECTOR'S CUT has all my cartoons to the end of 2008 and a running commentary on each one. The book has a publisher created by a friend of Fintag, Lazy Dog Press, and will be available in all good book stores in the coming months if I can be bothered. Buy it on-line or preview the first 15 pages.
Now this is complete and closed off, I can concentrate on my next book which will be a novel called "Why Cats Save Lives" or the "Fall and decline of Fintag's Empire".
Let me know if you are a publisher who can give me a USD600k advance so I can find a writer I can delegate to.
Unemployment Sorry if you received multiple copies of this letter yesterday. I had so many sent back I thought there was an IT problem. It turns out many of you have lost your jobs. Sorry once again.
OCH-ZIFF LOST 25PC OF FUND THROUGH REDEMPTIONS IN DECEMBER
The scale of the drop in assets indicates the severity of the blow dealt to hedge funds by investors scrambling to withdraw money at the end of the year. Although Och-Ziff's four funds are down between 8pc to 30pc during last year, the group's performance was better than others.
In recent days funds from London managers GLG Partners, RWC Partners and Oceanwood Capital all introduced last-minute restrictions as the year ended to prevent crippling redemptions, while Finnish fund Ilmatar yesterday said it would close.
Fintag says Under normal circumstances, we would see some M&A activity. But this isn't going to happen because hedge fund managers HATE each other to bits. Hedgies would prefer to burn than admit defeat and cuddle up with a competitor.
FSA COULD EXTEND RULE ON SHORT-SELLING DISCLOSURE TO ALL PUBLIC COMPANIES
Britain's top City regulator is examining whether to extend disclosure of short-selling to all 3,489 companies publicly traded in the UK.
The consultation comes as global financial regulators struggle with the issue of how to police short-selling, a practice that many politicians accused of exacerbating last year's financial crisis.
The Financial Services Authority (FSA) has decided to relax an outright ban on short-selling banking stocks, which had been in force since September. Short-sellers - those who make profits from betting that stocks will fall - caused chaos in the banking sector when banks were desperate for fresh capital.
Fintag says ...and the UK's LSE will become a minor market that hedge funds will not invest in.
GlobeOp is providing Millennium USA, Millennium International and Millennium Global Estate with independent confirmation of cash and position reconciliation, pricing and valuation, net asset value (NAV) production, financial reporting and share register and transfer agency services.
"We are sending a strong signal about our commitment to transparency and the independent validation of Millennium's portfolio positions, asset pricing and expense allocation by appointing GlobeOp as an independent administrator, and by increasing our online investor portfolio reporting," said Terry Feeney, co-president and chief operating officer of Millennium.
Fintag says Uh? Why are Global Cockup any more transparent than any other Administrator?
President-elect Barack Obama said on Tuesday at a meeting of his economic team that the US can expect “trillion-dollar deficits for years to come,” as he spoke for a second day on a planned stimulus plan that is expected to total $800 billion in new spending and tax cuts over the next two years.
Obama stressed the necessity of running record-setting deficits for several years and also the imperative of having a plan to bring them down markedly in subsequent years.
Fintag says There you go. As I said yesterday, the man is setting the expectations to be bad so he claim credit when it is not as bad. I despair. Our children are being left a world in a big mess.
The Dubai Shariah Hedge Fund Index, the first internationally-recognised index comprised exclusively of Shariah compliant hedge funds, has been launched by the Dubai Multi Commodities Centre Authority (DMCCA) and Shariah Capital.
The index will be calculated and reported by Thomson Reuters and reflects the performance of the DSAM Kauthar Commodity Fund, an equally weighted fund of funds comprised initially of four single strategy, commodity-focused funds that are Shariah compliant. The funds all follow long/short equity strategies and are on the Al Safi Trust platform.
Fintag says Nice.
INDIAN STOCKS AND RUPEE HIT BY $1BN FRAUD AT IT GIANT SATYAM
India was shaken yesterday by one of the largest corporate scandals in its history, after the founder of giant IT group Satyam Computer Services admitted the group had become embroiled in a $1bn (£660m) accounting fraud. Byrraju Ramalinga Raju, Satyam's founder and chairman, revealed in a letter to the company's board yesterday that he had overseen years of accounting irregularities. He announced the facts "with deep regret, and a tremendous burden that I am carrying on my conscience".
The shock news from India's fourth largest outsourcing specialist, whose clients include General Electric and Nestlé, sent its shares plunging 77 per cent in Mumbai. The price fall dragged down the entire index of the Indian Stock Exchange, with the knock-on effect of weakening the rupee. Mr Raju's admission comes just weeks after a bungled attempt by Hyderabad-based Satyam to buy two companies in which its management held stakes, a move that sparked investor outrage. The company was also barred from doing business with the World Bank over different irregularities.
Fintag says This story is quite popular but personally I have no interest. The Indian market is not worth trading on. You can buy but never sell.
Steven Good swallowed a bullet: Villehuchet slit his wrists: Adolf Merckle went with the Anna Karenina exit: And for good measure, Sonja Kohn “dropped out of sight:”
The Securities and Exchange Commission has reopened its insider trading investigation of Pequot Capital Management more than two years after saying it had “insufficient evidence to bring a case” over the hedge fund's trading of Microsoft Inc. securities.
The resurrected probe comes following the revelation that Pequot or founder Arthur Samberg paid a former Microsoft employee who briefly worked for the hedge fund $1.4 million. The payments—two each of $700,000, with another due in April—came to light in financial statements filed by former analyst David Zilkha in divorce proceeding
Fintag says Good to see the SEC doing what it does best - litigation.
The European Central Bank is showing few signs of succumbing to mounting calls to slash interest rates at its critical monetary policy meeting next week and now appears more likely than not to leave them unchanged or modestly reduced.
ECB policymakers enter their pre-meeting “purdah” week on Thursday, when they avoid public comment, without having sent any clear sign that their thinking has changed since early December. At that time, Jean-Claude Trichet, the ECB president, said interest rate cuts already announced and government rescue packages should be allowed to take effect - and warned of the risks of cutting borrowing costs too far.
Fintag says I really respect the ECB. They are watching what damage the USA and UK are doing by spunking all over the place and not wanting to repeat the same in Europe. The EUR is becoming the world's currency as the ECB want it to be.
ADP has put together a fairly miserable track record in forecasting BLS job data. This month, they have, once again, revamped their methodology in an attempt to more closely track BLS data, which they claim after the BLS revisions one year later their data will match up.
Why? Why is that goal is even remotely desirable?
Fintag says Statistics. Lies. Damned.
35 comments
IFeelIll said ...
Just the one christmas card Fin?
08 Jan 09 - 08:34 gmt
Panta said ...
Tonite chez Panta..big lenticchie e zampone nite with 6 hf mangers..no caviair no champagne no oysters...Just a typical italian plate...It s pork and lentils basically so i dont exptect all of you to come....Madoff surely won't...Fin as you are trying to recycle you in a writer i am trying to recycle myself in a chef...
08 Jan 09 - 08:50 gmt
anonymous said ...
That is a beautiful pussy
08 Jan 09 - 08:50 gmt
anonymous said ...
Hang on, that is my pussy
08 Jan 09 - 08:53 gmt
Grad said ...
Fintag / Other posters - Would you or other HF's look favourably on a student who has Islamic finance qualifications through SII along with a Econ degree from a top 10 UK uni? Do you see a viable future in Islamic Finance?
08 Jan 09 - 10:41 gmt
fitzcaraldo said ...
wcvarones Greenspan's body count - frightening - leveraged financiers may RIP - there's more to life than financial wealth - look at all those dedicating themselves to cooking, knitting, writing...
08 Jan 09 - 10:43 gmt
fitzcaraldo said ...
panta, what wine will you serve at your poor man's dinner?
08 Jan 09 - 10:45 gmt
Jaa said ...
La Spinetta Le Pin '97 perhaps?
08 Jan 09 - 10:59 gmt
kvisa said ...
ECB Rules O.K: That Committee is not reacting or self-fulfilling "unprecedented proportions crisis" view. CDS buyers need a few firms, people to go to the wall. Just as Fire Fighting set-up need the odd fires to keep the system in place...
08 Jan 09 - 11:11 gmt
Panta said ...
@Fizcarraldo: Due to the financial crisis i will opt for a classic "Tavernello"...a big classic for Italian lower-middle class...Hope my clients will bring at least a bottle of "Prosecco" ...and then we will end the nite paying, scopa, tresette or briscola...No poker no champagne...That is all over...
08 Jan 09 - 11:17 gmt
MsR said ...
@panta: Sounds delicious. No pudding?
08 Jan 09 - 11:44 gmt
madd said ...
Good luck with the ECB become the leading central bank. Weren't these clowns running their mouth about rampant inflation just a few short months ago?
08 Jan 09 - 11:49 gmt
Panta said ...
@MsR:Why not..but i am not an expert on British plates...probably I will buy it in Partridge..as i am to lazy to walk to Waitrose....but this will fck up (sorry i can t find any other word in English to explain the concept) my Budget...:) Buy the way I live just next door an HF who recently felt from grace...should I invite those guys as well...??
08 Jan 09 - 11:53 gmt
MsR said ...
@Panta: Well I was thinking Amaretti and some more wine perhaps? Cantuccini and Vin Santo...nice. Yes, invite him. If he's a nice person.
08 Jan 09 - 12:14 gmt
Alpha60 said ...
@Panta your dinner sounds interesting.
Fintag will you be throwing a dinner for your loyal posters and fellow hedgies no matter how much you hate them.
08 Jan 09 - 12:17 gmt
Panta said ...
Amaretti & Vinsanto...ahhh what good souvenirs...i will end to buy a couple of bottle of Barolo...I Knew it....:)
08 Jan 09 - 12:19 gmt
anonymous said ...
How many clowns do you count in a circus! Everyone was weighing up the toss between inflation and growth fears, no so long ago. Political risk is heavy in Euro investments as it is made up increasingly loose federation of countries - ala Greece and Italy. Only as strong as the weakest link. So Dollar will remain until the new Canada, Mexico and US currency is forged ' Amerino' - I got that from Zeitgeist.com movie.
08 Jan 09 - 12:22 gmt
panta said ...
@anon 12.22: Yes and softlanding was a really fashionable word....
08 Jan 09 - 12:32 gmt
Panta said ...
@Alpha: You are invited Alpha I am sure we won't be able to finish all The zampone e lenticchie...
08 Jan 09 - 13:04 gmt
Panta said ...
@ALPHA:that dinner cost always 5bps...Which on 1kg of letils is quite a lot (try to count all the pile...times 0.0005)...but Fin has got even the wvap gauarantee...alternatively i could look after his huge pile of cash.... I tried to open a line with Jon Wood last year....He wasn t nice at all...Well look what happened to him....
Good luck....
Ps FYI I love my Hedgies....
08 Jan 09 - 13:17 gmt
Jaa said ...
Any views on cable here..bottoming out here perhaps?
08 Jan 09 - 13:53 gmt
Moron said ...
just short everything and go to sleep guys....the idiot has spoken:)))
08 Jan 09 - 14:21 gmt
fitzcaraldo said ...
@ panta & alpha60 : think these hedgie dinners are a great idea: if there is not enough business for everybody in hedgefundwonderland at least we can share a decent meal and some booze, like in these good ol' days at my alma mater...no money, great fun...
08 Jan 09 - 14:24 gmt
Panta said ...
Hey Fin is Commerzbnk on your Hall of shame...If not you should
08 Jan 09 - 14:58 gmt
red blooded anon said ...
@MsR - being a connoisseur of your blog, I was slightly amused to see you use the word 'pudding'. I had you down as more of a 'dessert' girl. My antennae must have been blunted by Xmas excess.
08 Jan 09 - 15:15 gmt
Alpha60 said ...
@Panta - Thk you for your kind invite. Unfortunatly my g/friend has slowly converted me into a vegetarian. I would like to take a rain check on your meal offer though..
08 Jan 09 - 16:10 gmt
Panta said ...
@Alpha60: I will rise a glass for you tonite :)
08 Jan 09 - 16:26 gmt
MsR said ...
@redbloodedanon: usually I will say "shall we have something sweet" depending of course on who I am eating with
@alpha60..first a vegetarian and then you start wearing those bits of string around your wrist...it's all downhill
08 Jan 09 - 18:14 gmt
madd said ...
Amazing how Nazi-Deutschland secretary of finance was bashing the Brits for taken "too much of an active role bailing out banks" and now they're pumping 10bln EUR into Commerzbank. Just funny.
08 Jan 09 - 23:20 gmt
JL said ...
Ouch: "so many sent back" An amusingly morbid tone today, great pickup on the WCV blog too. Best for 09 Fintag, won't be buying ur crap cartoons but continue to enjoy them on site. Not one to follow comments here often, but seemed weak today. Hope you check the insanity at Dealbreaker once in a while, vicious, puerile sarcasm that only the americans could produce.
09 Jan 09 - 01:05 gmt
pets are for life not christmas said ...
I have two manx. They are like dogs but more independent.
09 Jan 09 - 03:10 gmt
ATHENADELPHI said ...
i THINK THAT FIN WANTS US TO BUY THE BOOK SO HE CAN THEN USE THE MONEY TO PAY FOR CAT FOOD. ITS A SELF SERVING CYCLE. ITS CAPITALISM AT ITS BEST!
09 Jan 09 - 05:48 gmt
AthenaDelphi said ...
now that my caps key is unstuck from my sticky cookie fingers I have to ask Fin a question: Do you read the comments of your readers of the previous day right before writing your new postings?
If so, please comment on King Obama instructing his barons to pass a bill that will arbitrarily lower the amounts due on homes that the peasants buy (aka the cram down provision in stimulus bill).
09 Jan 09 - 05:57 gmt
AthenaDelphi said ...
I merely mention this so I can follow your lead on what to invest or not invest in, if it all contracts signed can be wiped out with a swing of a gavel. Where's the trade? Long judges and short......everything else?
09 Jan 09 - 05:59 gmt
AthenaDelphi said ...
one last comment for this date: I hear that Dr. Who will be going into his 11th incarnation as time lord. The series is going to wind up in a corner since this actor and the next are the last. Also Davies left as writer I see. Torchwood anyone?
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