28JAN09:
Q1-09 DOW: 8900
Q2-09 DOW: 7250
Q3-09 DOW: 5810
Q4-09 DOW: 3960
CITI NATIONALIZED
OBAMA GETS SICK 27AUG09:
Mini Crash 21SEP09 Predicted correctly:
Bailout=Bonuses
Demise of Bear Stearns
Demise of Lehman Bros.
Demise of AIG
Subprime would cause problems
Date of 2007 crash
CRAs were to blame
G20 riots were a party
Northern Rock run
Northern Rock Nationalization
HBOS and RBS demise
UBS really was Useless
Sorry, that was a typo. If you are looking at my views on the conflict, and why oil is not shooting up faster, you need to go to google and look elsewhere.
I should have typed middle class. Unlike recessions in the past, this one is hitting the middle classes really hard. In the space of half a generation, we have gone from a mantra of debt is only for use by businesses who want to buy expensive equipment to one where consumer debt is available to all to buy food and shelter. It all started in the 1960's with Diners Club and Barclay card and these satans of the Quakers should be burned or at least cut up.
So, with all these busted balance sheets what happens next? Well I have no solutions for helping you pay off your credit card but one of my prime brokers, the German one that sort of rhymes with Lurcher, has started to talk to me again about my leverage. Something is happening because they want to give me some. Why this should be is an enigma but I aint complaining,
It feels like I have been walking for months on the surface of Mars and just stood on a young shoot. It is an hallelujah moment. Let us hope the meeting I have today goes well as a bit of leverage will enable me to get my management fee up (small print in the OM).
If I dreamed this, please don't tell me.
Onto other matters. Madman Madoff is taking the flak and should get an oscar. A German billionaire who went the wrong way with that not to be mentioned VW trade bypassed the mad phase and went straight to the rail station. For other middle classers, the new black is carrots.
Gardening and allotments are the big thing. There are waiting lists and the sales of books on growing vegatables [Editor: Careful] are at all time high. Following a new resolution to eat only uncooked foods, I too have started on the road to self sufficiency. My gardeners at Fintag mansions have recently ploughed up my extensive lawns and are growing all matter of food.
In the meantime, enjoy your salt 'n' fat Pret sandwich and think of me chomping into a plate of half washed carrots, celery and unshelled peas. Nice.
"Mr Madoff's actions have further weakened the battered investor confidence in our securities markets," he said.
Stephen Harbeck, president of the Securities Investor Protection Corporation, gave evidence that statements 70-year-old Mr Madoff had been sending to investors "bore little or no relation to reality".
Fintag says Come on guys, this is 2008 news. We want new news. Cheerful news. News about the latest long / short uncooked food funds.
financial news says " Madoff exposure prompts Tremont to halt redemptions "
The long-held assumption that US assets - particularly government bonds - are a safe haven will soon be overturned as investors lose their patience with the world's biggest economy, according to Willem Buiter.
Professor Buiter, a former Monetary Policy Committee member who is now at the London School of Economics, said this increasing disenchantment would result in an exodus of foreign cash from the US.
Fintag says The theory says yes. The irrational reality says no. The reason is that every other country is taxing, bailing and printing and so all currencies will fall and hence no currencies will fall. The USD will bounce around. I hope.
ADOLF MERCKLE, GERMAN TYCOON WHO LOST MILLIONS ON VW SHARES, COMMITS SUICIDE
Adolf Merckle, the 74-year-old head of a conglomerate that employs thousands in Britain and elsewhere in Europe, killed himself on Monday.
After writing a suicide note for his family, he checked the railway timetable and walked to the track that ran close to his home in the village of Blaubeuren, southwest Germany. His body was found at 7.30pm.
Fintag says Not sure what to say really. It had to happen and more will do the same. Money is truly the root of all evil. Actually, one should rewrite this to say " Debt is the root of all evil "
With an aggressive style that stood out in the staid world of Austrian banking even more than her bouffant red wig, Sonja Kohn made few friends gathering billions for Bernard L. Madoff from wealthy investors in Russia and across Europe.
“With Russian oligarchs as clients,” said a Viennese banker who knew Mrs. Kohn and her husband socially, “she might have reason to be afraid.”
It was a view shared in interviews with Mrs. Kohn's fellow bankers, former employees and other associates — from Vienna to London to Geneva to Monsey, N.Y.
Fintag says I too would be running if I had done a Tremont. You know, grow a beard, change the accent and wear brown robes with a tasty white rope belt. And sandals despite it being -10 degrees outside.
SEISMIC CHANGE IN HEDGE FUND OUTSOURCING PREDICTED
A significant shift in the way hedge funds will manage their infrastructure and operations in 2009. Hedge funds will aggressively explore and implement turn-key outsourcing strategies as a solution to the operational and cost challenges caused by the financial crisis and the reshaping of the prime brokerage landscape, predicted Paladyne Systems in its latest white paper*.
The current challenge for hedge fund managers is to demonstrate comprehensive operational control in the face of redemptions, cost pressure and lower fees, reported the paper. It forecasts outsourcing as the best viable solution.
Fintag says I am looking to outsource nearly all my staff to the local mental asylum. Only kidding. But it is a thought. My staff are living in the past and think its 2006 where jobs were in short supply and earning USD250k was their right. I have told them all to start eating carrots and googling where the nearest soup kitchen's are. Here is a map showing where they are in New York (not helpful):
Governments aren't used to running banks. But the British authorities control Royal Bank of Scotland and their US counterparts now have more than USD300bn of influence in their banking sector. How should they use their influence and how will they use it?
The first principle should be Brevity is the soul of wit. Chris Cox ...
Fintag says I think they should run some banks. I want incompetent civil servants being able to give me money without asking questions. If Hank Paulson can get a bunch of dimwits to give him USD700bn then why not everyone else?
Wall Street loves a hero, and 2008 was the year that JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon took on that role. But the smart money is now saying that Dimon is heading for a fall.
Although Dimon managed to navigate the financial crisis more adeptly than rivals in 2008, his chickens appear to be coming home to roost. He will reveal his firm's fourth-quarter earnings at the end of January, and the bank is expected to post its first loss since Dimon became CEO in 2006. Critics point out that, notwithstanding the plaudits, JPMorgan has written down billions as a result of the economic and financial crisis (just not as many as rivals), losses are now on the horizon and the firm's stock price is under pressure (closing almost 7% down in New York trading Monday).
Fintag says I met Dimon once. He is the most anally retentive person I have ever met. He is also very mean and I think deep down is a Quaker.
Barack Obama on Tuesday warned that this year's budget deficit could break through a record $1,000bn - more than double last year's shortfall - and remain above that level “for years to come”.
Pledging to bring a “long-overdue sense of responsibility and accountability to Washington”, the US president-elect said his pending fiscal stimulus plan, which itself could climb to $1,000bn (£688bn) from its current estimate of $775bn, would include measures to bring down the deficit after the US economy had recovered.
Fintag says Classic. You start a new job. Blame your predecessor and say its going to get much worse before it gets better and you need a huge budget to do it. Obama should be an investment banker.
Apple is offering millions of songs free of copy protection on its iTunes digital music store, allowing buyers to play the music they purchase on all devices, not only Apple products.
Apple has finally made agreements with the big music labels, ending the last bastion of digital rights management (DRM), the anti-piracy lock-and-key system used by the music industry. DRM-protected songs prevent music being copied — an option insisted on by recording studios — meaning that iTunes tracks could be played only on Apple products such as iPods.
Fintag says Best news I have heard this year.
CREDIT SUISSE SAID TO HAVE URGED CLIENTS TO DUMP MADOFF FUNDS
Credit Suisse Group AG, whose clients lost almost $1 billion in Bernard Madoff's alleged swindle, urged customers more than eight years ago to withdraw cash from his firm because the bank couldn't determine how he made money, said three people familiar with the matter.
Oswald Gruebel, who headed the private-banking unit of Switzerland's No. 2 lender at the time, made the recommendation after meeting Madoff in New York in June 2000, the people said, speaking anonymously because the details were private. Credit Suisse customers proceeded to redeem about $250 million from Madoff-run funds, half the total held by the bank's clients, the people said.
Fintag says Nice bit of spin eh?
STILL AT WORK - BUT THE PHONES ARE OFF, THE COMPUTERS UNPLUGGED
he Mail-on-Sunday had an interview with Julia Fenwick who, for 8 years, was alleged $50bn fraudster Bernie Madoff's London office manager. Ms Fenwick described Madoff as 'the most anally retentive person I have ever met'.
She continued: 'Everything was always so controlled. The London office had to resemble as closely as possible the New York office - grey walls, grey carpets, black trim, black cupboards. Everything was grey and black. On occasions he (Madoff) visited London, we'd spend days before his arrival levelling the blinds, making sure the computer screens were an identical height, lining every picture up straight......Bernie has some sort of obsessive-compulsive disorder'. In the meantime, over in the Madoff Securities New York office, staff are still in work and being paid - but they are doing no work, as the phones are turned off and computers are unplugged, as staff are simply there to try and help investigators piece together exactly went on in Madoff land.
Fintag says I certainly didn't expect the man to be big picture, leave it to the troops sort of guy. Better ask his children. Madman Madoff is clever. He is old and taking all the heat. Was he alone? But more importantly why do I have so many Madoff stories today? Now where are those carrots ...
30 comments
anonymous said ...
So you are cutting out on meat? Long carrots / short pig
07 Jan 09 - 08:13 gmt
Jaa said ...
become a fruitarian its easier, just eat things that fall from trees...
07 Jan 09 - 08:29 gmt
MsR said ...
@Jaa: What, like people and cats?
07 Jan 09 - 08:31 gmt
anonymous said ...
db extending leverage, maybe readying them selfs for the expected higher volumes after the 16th? before the fsa stopped shorting i know db were executing over a million trades a day massive volumes.
07 Jan 09 - 08:43 gmt
Jaa said ...
MsR: prefer monkeys myself.
07 Jan 09 - 08:48 gmt
Jaa said ...
One more flurry to the upside in stocks dax 5200, spx 980ish.. time to start looking at some puts.. vix below 40..nice..
07 Jan 09 - 09:10 gmt
Moron said ...
no more flurry to the upside.....this santa nonsense is over...now lets start going down again...here come the profit warnings:))))
07 Jan 09 - 09:23 gmt
Madoff said ...
FT-The chairman of Satyam Computer Services, which ranks as India’s fourth-largest software operation, has fessed up to years of book-cooking. Shares in the company crashed 80 per cent on Wednesday, taking the wider Indian stock market down 7 per cent.
07 Jan 09 - 09:31 gmt
Moron said ...
satyam, indian market, logitech, alcoa.......all in the last 2 days....goodbye santa see u next year...when we are down another 20% from the 2008 lows!
07 Jan 09 - 09:35 gmt
Gordon said ...
I am more anally retentive.
07 Jan 09 - 09:38 gmt
anonymous said ...
i'm asking myself how unusual Lyondellbasell $17 billion price tag to its borrowing of $26 billion is... there must be many others out there. How any of this was ever thought clever is completely beyond me
07 Jan 09 - 09:42 gmt
Jaa said ...
haha... Moron returns...and he's bearish. Good!
07 Jan 09 - 09:44 gmt
Moron said ...
bearish beyond belief.....short like there is no tomorrow!!...markets have gotten delusional again.....look at asml and amat.....semicap equipment will get screwed in 09....and stocks pretending its all hunky dory.....this market is traded by morons!!
07 Jan 09 - 09:48 gmt
H said ...
hi finbar, HNY any pointers on India
07 Jan 09 - 10:24 gmt
Panta said ...
100% with you Moron.....
07 Jan 09 - 10:34 gmt
India said ...
Short
07 Jan 09 - 10:41 gmt
Super Mario said ...
Super Mario's 2009 tip - MSCI Brazil ETF
07 Jan 09 - 12:16 gmt
anonymous said ...
Morons been losing money for almost 2 months
07 Jan 09 - 13:11 gmt
cockyspiv said ...
HYN to one and all!
My predicitions; Volatile market continues thru all '09 / Robert Petson moves to ITV / Madoff millions found in tea chest / A leading supermarket will go bust and i will become a diving instructor in the red sea......
07 Jan 09 - 13:11 gmt
anonymous said ...
Hamas - long or short ?
07 Jan 09 - 13:12 gmt
anonymous said ...
@anon13.12: Long...but not as long as Hezbollah who are far superior
07 Jan 09 - 13:19 gmt
Shane Warne said ...
A popular story at JPM re: Dimon, is that he often asks the taxi's at the front of their NYC office who they're waiting for. He then rings them and tells them to hurry and get in the cab as it is costing the firm!
I guess now they have to take the subway anyhow.
07 Jan 09 - 13:33 gmt
Moron said ...
yeah anon...but i amde money all through before those 2 months no:)))
07 Jan 09 - 14:11 gmt
Moron said ...
it seems to me that intel just warned and the semicap stocks getting donald ducked ... oops!!!
07 Jan 09 - 14:21 gmt
Alpha60 said ...
I expect the mkts to test the Nov 08 lows again...but generally can see them creeping higher this year as credit thaws. There is value in the IG corp bond mkt, is my tip for this year
07 Jan 09 - 15:16 gmt
Bernie said ...
Fin,
Wanna buy a rolex?
07 Jan 09 - 15:44 gmt
Finbar said ...
@Bernie: I have enough already and looking to sell.
07 Jan 09 - 17:02 gmt
Canadian/Canadien said ...
The Middle Class across much of the world (both developed and developing) mistook debt as wealth. When they bought big-screen TVs, 2 Lexuses and a big suburban house and took on GBP 500,000 (USD 756,000, EUR 555,000) in debt, they only look at the wealth-side of the house, the car and the furniture, and turn a blind eye on the debt-side.
07 Jan 09 - 20:37 gmt
FSA said ...
@Finbar: How many and how much? We are the new masters now.
07 Jan 09 - 20:52 gmt
Jack Hammer said ...
Is the porn industry up next for a bailout? If porn titans Joe Francis and Larry Flynt have anything to do with it, it will.
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