28JAN09:
Q1-09 DOW: 8900
Q2-09 DOW: 7250
Q3-09 DOW: 5810
Q4-09 DOW: 3960
CITI NATIONALIZED
OBAMA GETS SICK 27AUG09:
Mini Crash 21SEP09 Predicted correctly:
Bailout=Bonuses
Demise of Bear Stearns
Demise of Lehman Bros.
Demise of AIG
Subprime would cause problems
Date of 2007 crash
CRAs were to blame
G20 riots were a party
Northern Rock run
Northern Rock Nationalization
HBOS and RBS demise
UBS really was Useless
I started a website last year that exposed people who said one thing and did another. Unfortunately it never took off because I couldn't find any commentators who never lied. 2008 was a year of lies and already we are getting dubious statements from pundits who know what is going to happen in the future.
Having predicted the top of the market, it is time for me to predict the bottom. This is extremely difficult and I have no idea where to start. I am working on it and my results will be published soon. Or not. Having gained glory but not capitalised on my excellent trading skills, I feel the next 3 months are about survival and repositioning and this is what I will concentrate on.
As for the date - well there will be a mini rally sometime this year but the bears will continue to win. [Editor: Cop out]
BANK MEETS AS HISTORIC RATE CUT DECISION LOOMS LARGE
The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meets tomorrow for an historic session, heralding the lowest interest rates in the Bank's 314-year history and opening up the possibility that the Bank will soon embark on a policy of "quantitative easing", more popularly called "printing money", to avert a severe recession.
City economists have unanimously thought for some time that the Bank would cut rates from their current 2 per cent level, the lowest since 1951. The only question is by how much the MPC will move when the decision is announced on Thursday lunchtime, and what path the Bank will follow as rates move, seemingly inexorably, to zero.
Fintag says Not that long ago, these muppets of the universe would spend days achingly tweaking rates to combat inflation. Today they are flying around in helicopters way up in the sky trying to survey the landscape whilst just copying Ben Bernanke and dropping rates and printing money. In isolation such a tactic is a risky decision as was Japan's in the 1980's. Credibility went out the window but now nearly all major economies are adopting policies to eliminate the costs of debt, and reducing the value of debt by printing money and hoping for inflation.
Funny how the thing they were bashing is the thing they want back. Inflation is good. Inflation devalues debt. It makes us feel richer.
Not that any of us are seeing loans available at near 0%. The banks are issuing loans at libor + 3% + where the premium represent a default risk expense.
Debt. Don't you just love it? Time for these nationalised banks to start serving the people and not themselves.
The future of the 200-year-old Wedgwood pottery in Stoke-on-Trent was thrown into doubt yesterday as its owner, Waterford Wedgwood, said it had called in administrators.
Up to 2,700 jobs in the UK and Ireland are at risk as the administrators try to find a buyer for the latest high-profile victim of the economic downturn. The loss-making company, which also owns brands such as Waterford Crystal and Royal Doulton pottery, had been trying to raise fresh capital but ran out of time as its lenders, primarily the Bank of America, refused to postpone interest payments for the fourth time.
Fintag says Imagine surviving booms and busts of yesteryear and failing to survive a small credit crunch. I blame the human psyche and google. Fear and risk has been taken away; we seem to think that because we can find answers that everything will be all right. Shame. Still, my antique Wedgwood should start to increase in value so there is a God after all.
According to data compiled for The Sunday Telegraph by Dealogic, British businesses have £25bn of debt maturing in the form of corporate bonds this year as well as a staggering £85bn of loans.
The lack of funding available to companies was behind the Government's unprecedented £500bn bail-out of the British banking sector last October but the credit markets remain stubbornly frozen, raising fears that companies face annihilation if they are unable to refinance their debt.
Fintag says It is shocking. Banks are not lending. A friend is launching a new business in the green space and cannot get even a simple overdraft without personal guarantees and signing over his children as collateral. Banks. Scum.
Cardinal Cormac Murphy O'Connor, 76, made the astonishing claim at a lavish fund-raising dinner at Claridges which secured pledges of hundreds of thousands of pounds for the catholic church.
The Cardinal, dressed in his full clerical regalia, said in a speech at the black tie dinner that he had worried whether the dinner should go ahead because of the troubled economic times.
Fintag says Well that is helpful. What is he proposing then?
FSA CALLS END TO BAN ON SHORT-SELLING OF FINANCIAL STOCK
The Financial Services Authority (FSA) said that the ban, which was imposed in September and covered the shares of 32 financial companies, would cease after January 16. However, the City regulator said that it planned to continue to force investors to disclose their short positions until June 30 at least.
Short-sellers sell borrowed shares in companies they expect to decline in the hope of turning a quick profit by the time that they need to buy them back to settle their trade. The practice, often executed by hedge funds, has been widely blamed for exacerbating the financial crisis, with opponents arguing that the volume of short-selling drove down the share prices of financial services companies, damaging confidence and fuelling a downward spiral in the banking industry.
Fintag says Told you so many times. The FSA like the SEC helped beat up the only industry keeping the equity markets liquid. Idiots. Still at least they wont being this dumb trick again.
Where is the chart news: bloomberg says " U.K. Short-Sale Ban Failed to Stop Banks' Slump: Chart of Day "
RENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES WAIVES MANAGEMENT FEE ON FUTURES FUND
Hedge funds are facing a meagre year after their worst 12 months on record left most needing to make back hefty losses before they begin earning performance fees. More than 150 - including funds from some of the biggest names in the industry, such as Tudor Investment Corp, Citadel, Cerberus Capital and Highbridge Capital - have limited redemptions.
Prime brokers, which provide services to hedge funds, and managers predict continued selling pressure into the markets from suspended funds for months to come as they try to cash in hard-to-sell assets. Withdrawals are widely expected to continue to the end of the first quarter.
Fintag says Ah yes, but the chaff is being weeded out and the strong are surviving. Just.
More than 8,000 forms have been mailed to customers of accused swindler Bernard Madoff so they can make claims by March or July for any money they may have lost, the trustee overseeing the liquidation of Madoff's firm said on Monday.
The claims, to be made through the non-profit Securities Investor Protection Corporation (SIPC) and a court-appointed trustee, are just one avenue for investors who believe they were duped in Madoff's purported $50 billion fraud.
Fintag says And for those who didn't get one - stand up and cheer.
Although history never quite repeats itself, some patterns remain the same.
During the boom times, there is widespread and growing support for open borders and ever expanding cross-border commerce. However, when the economic pendulum swings the other way, so does faith in free trade.
Thus, it should come as no surprise, as the following Reuters report, "Obama, Congress Leaders to Meet Monday on Economy," seems to make clear, that the winds of protectionism are gaining strength...
Fintag says Absolutely. As I thought. Once a socialist, always a socialist. If Obama does this, the EU will do the same and we have the 1970s all over again. Not nice. And more evidence that Obama, bless his cotton socks, will fail big time. I give him one term unless the Republicans cannot find a decent president elect. The man has the talk but he hasn't a clue.
Is McCain still alive? And what happened to Sarah Palin? [Editor: Last seen in the Sales on 5th Avenue]
BERNIE MADOFF 'MAILING VALUABLE JEWELLERY TO FAMILY' FROM HOUSE ARREST
Mr Madoff will remain on bail while a judge considers whether he has violated the terms of an asset-freeze order by sending away five items worth an estimated $1million (£680,000).
As the former investor appeared in court, Democrat and Republican representatives on the capital markets committee grilled regulators from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), investors and other witnesses in an attempt to get to the bottom of how the alleged fraud was allowed to continue for more than a decade.
Fintag says The madman is truly mad.
10 comments
Made-off said ...
I see your predictions that the SEC were useless have come true. 8 visits to madoff in 16 years and he got a clean bill of health everytime.
06 Jan 09 - 08:10 gmt
FiveFreddy said ...
A superior trader uses his superior judgement to avoid having to use his superior trading skills...
06 Jan 09 - 08:20 gmt
benw said ...
your crappy cartoon at the top implies you look like Adolf Hitler
06 Jan 09 - 10:01 gmt
Finbar said ...
I thought I looked quite cool with a hairy top lip
06 Jan 09 - 11:28 gmt
M said ...
My uncle has the same impression, he's adopted an Adolf look thinking it is the appropriate thing to do now that he's retired. I thought you had no such thoughts, what with sitting on all that cash... :)
06 Jan 09 - 12:57 gmt
GalwayBoy said ...
So, how aggressive do we think Mervin King aka Penfold will be with his forecast interest rate cut this week?
06 Jan 09 - 14:22 gmt
anonymous said ...
Talking of Adolf I see Merckle called it a day. VW eh?
06 Jan 09 - 18:01 gmt
anonymous said ...
I wonder if Moron is on holiday, or just silent as he's sitting on some jarring losses in the recent micro-recovery?
06 Jan 09 - 20:53 gmt
M said ...
I can't stop thinking who is this anti moron anonymous and why can't the person simply not relate her/himself to Moron :).
Moron has one thing right all the time, and that's the triple dribble :).
06 Jan 09 - 20:58 gmt
Not bored at all said ...
@M: what I think is funny is that people like the nasty anons believe everything other posters..and Fin..say.it's the internet for god's sake.
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