28JAN09:
Q1-09 DOW: 8900
Q2-09 DOW: 7250
Q3-09 DOW: 5810
Q4-09 DOW: 3960
CITI NATIONALIZED
OBAMA GETS SICK 27AUG09:
Mini Crash 21SEP09 Predicted correctly:
Bailout=Bonuses
Demise of Bear Stearns
Demise of Lehman Bros.
Demise of AIG
Subprime would cause problems
Date of 2007 crash
CRAs were to blame
G20 riots were a party
Northern Rock run
Northern Rock Nationalization
HBOS and RBS demise
UBS really was Useless
Oh dear. With crude oil falling under USD40, the oil producing countries must be worried. Dubai, that fantasy city which was built on borrowings from other Arab states is in my opinion going to turn to dust in the next 20 years. It has no oil and nothing except buildings and air conditioning. Those funding it are going to start complaining soon although supporters of Dubai seem to think it will survive because it just has to. Given OPEC prices oil in a depreciating USD, the falls are even more painful and oil producers are in agony.
But we have been here before. In the 1970's when we had the last large blip the Arabs bought all the decent real estate in London before handing it all back 15 years later when the oil price slumped.
Oil revenue is a tax on the world so at we can go long suv's / short hybrids. Welcome back the Hummer, all is forgiven. I never did like my G-Wiz.
The volatility has been quite immense and predictions of USD300 seem far fetched in the short term but what the oil price shows is what a ludicrous market oil is traded on. The price of oil has no bearing on the demand for the physical, just what future speculators think it should be.
But you aren't interested in oil. Lower oil is good for us all, but it makes little difference if you are unemployed or lost your savings to madman Madoff.
Lawyers representing aggrieved investors are scouring feeder funds for advisers to sue and there appear to be quite a few. But we have had enough of Madoff.
So let's bash the UK as we haven't done that in a while. Mortgage arrears may top a million very soon, GBP is worth a couple of half eaten peanuts and the public sector borrowing staggers towards 50 percent of GDP give or take a few exaggerations. The trains aren't clean but at least there are more empty taxis.
So let us look at the news. Madoff is still the order of the day and everything I said in my analysis during the first 3 days is being picked upon, re analysed and written about (tax, claw backs, auditor culpability that sort of thing). Nice.
Outage Sorry if you struggled to get onto my blog yesterday. There was some ISP problems. You didn't miss much anyway.
Fears the global economy will get worse dropped oil prices to levels not seen in 4.5 years.
Investors shrugged off Wednesday's record production cut by OPEC, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, pushing crude oil prices to less than $36 a barrel. Oil moved slightly higher at the close of New York trading Thursday.
Prices have now tumbled more than 70 percent since July's record-high. And some economists say prices could drop even further as global economic problems cut demand.
Fintag says Funny. I was discussing many months ago that Bernanke's rate dropping would have two impacts. Firstly the dollar would be worth peanuts and secondly it would irritate the oil producers who price oil in dollars. So here we are. When will they reprice in Euros? Soon I suspect.
BERNARD MADOFF 'FRAUD': HEDGE FUNDS NEED CLOSER SUPERVISION, EX-SEC BOSS SAYS
"It's critical that the veil of secrecy around hedge funds can be removed for investors and government," said Harvey Pitt, chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) between 2001 and 2003, in an interview with the BBC. "There will be a lot of efforts to regulate hedge funds given all we have seen in the market place."
But he warned it would be difficult for governments to keep pace with the complex mathematical and technology-led models used by some funds, given the limited resources available to regulators.
Fintag says Horse. Bolted. Gate blah de blah.
And I say the SEC should be regulated for it doesn't know how to follow its mandate. Regulate. Close down. Start again.
TALES OF THE CITY—A YEAR IN THE LIFE OF A PROP TRADER
A senior trader at a large international bank gives Financial News a straight-from-the-hip account of the year from the front line....
Fintag says Don't bother. It is mostly made up. Read this instead. I only make up the bits that you want me to [Editor: You mean your six pack for example?]. Financial News have a Diary of a Hedge Fund Manager too. I can tell you that who ever writes this plagarises fintag.com big time. Another journalist pretending to be something they are not.
Makes my blood boil.
Thankfully Financial News is subscription only so nobody reads it. Phew!
HEDGE FUND FAILURES TO HIT RECORD AS INVESTORS FLEE
A record number of almost 1,000 hedge funds will be forced into liquidation this year as torrid investment markets take their toll of the alternative investment industry and worried investors redeem funds.
A total of 693 hedge funds crashed during the nine months to the end of September, according to Hedge Fund Research, the Chicago-based research firm. This represents an increase of 70 per cent on the 409 funds that closed their doors during the same period last year.
Amid the thousands of people caught up in the apparent multibillion-dollar fraud of Bernard L. Madoff, some investors stand out.
They made money.
One client said he invested more than $1 million with Mr. Madoff over a decade ago. As his portfolio rose in value, he took out several million dollars. While his statements showed several million dollars in his Madoff account when the fund collapsed last week, the client still ended up ahead.
Over 60% of fund managers think markets generally will rise in 2009 while 38% of disagreed. This is one of the finding in the Association of Investment Companies poll of investment company fund managers. The managers surveyed represent £23 billion of assets.
There was a diversity of views on where the level of the FTSE 100 would end in 2009. Most managers (54%) expect the index to close between 4500 to 5500 while 23% expect the index to close below 4000.
Only a small percentage of managers (9%) predict the FTSE 100 would close between 3500-4000 and the same think it would close lower between 3000-3500. Only 5% were ultra bearish predicting the FTSE would close under 2000.
Fintag says Now which markets have they said are going to rise? So 2% think they will be flat or maybe the markets will close down? Of course we are bullish. Most hedgies are long only and don't know how to short.
Top accounting firms were hoodwinked by Bernard Madoff's alleged $50bn fraud as well as several leading banks and some of the world's biggest hedge fund investors, according to lists of service providers to Madoff-linked funds.
PwC, KPMG and Ernst & Young, three of the “big four” accountants, and an arm of BDO International, the fifth largest, were all auditors of the feeder funds which channelled money into accounts at Mr Madoff's New York brokerage
Fintag says As has already been mentioned. But what about Citco?
Numerous investors and banks across Wall Street refused to deal with Bernard Madoff for several years before his ultimate arrest on fraud charges, amid widespread rumours of suspect activity at his broking and fund management business, it is becoming clear.
And in an explosive new revelation, Wall Street's chief regulator, the Securities and Exchange Commission, actually investigated the rumours and discovered that Mr Madoff had lied to its officials - but gave him no more than a private rap on the knuckles.
Fintag says I have had emails telling me that Madoff was known to be a wide boy for over 20 years. Funny how nobody reported him to the SEC. Hindsight is such a wonderful thing.
times says " Barack Obama lays into SEC for its lack of 'adult supervision' "
Mortgage lenders predict the recession will lead to a huge rise in arrears among their borrowers in 2009.
The Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) said the number of households more than three months behind with their repayments would reach 500,000.
Fintag says ...and funded by me the taxpayer. OK. Let us get radical. Come the revolution and my wall will have lined up against it people with mortgage arrears, credit rating agents, real estate agents, private equity VPs, Financial News journalists, Hank Paulson, Ben Bernanke, the Icelandic government, Gordon Brown and anyone who got a bonus working at a bank bailed out by a Government.
His old firm has already suspended redemptions, and now, Philippe Jabre, has followed suit.
The former GLG Partners star trader announced that investors in Jabre Capital Partners' Multi-Strategy hedge fund have approved a proposal that will allow them to withdraw their money over the course of the next year while allowing Jabre to avoid forced asset sales. Under the plan, investors can withdraw up to 15% of their capital by the end of January, another 15% at the end of March, and another 20% at the end of June. They can pull the rest of their money at the end of next year with 90 days' notice.
Fintag says The original sin. Jabre was just a lucky inside trader [source: FSA] who has now been exposed.
Leading banks from Britain, France and Japan helped investors treble or quadruple bets on Bernard Madoff by lending billions of dollars to “feeder” funds, which placed their money with the alleged fraudster.
HSBC, Royal Bank of Scotland, Nomura and BNP Paribas lent the money without spotting a fraud, and in at least one case without due diligence teams visiting Mr Madoff's brokerage, which held the assets.
Fintag says More reckless lending. But to be fair, I think many were just duped. The upshot is lending will be made even tighter and we will all suffer.
portfolio says " Did Bernard Madoff act alone? Investors doubt it"
Banks and a top investor this week said it is time to buy the very mortgage bonds that triggered the global credit crunch now that policy-makers are showing fresh resolve to stabilize housing.
Bullish outlooks on mortgage bonds, including much-derided subprime issues, from JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Barclays Capital are notable since anyone suggesting the bonds were a good buy over the past year has been humbled as the crisis worsened.
The Partnership seeks to provide investors with long-term capital growth and a return linked to a three times levered exposure to the economic performance of the Rye Select Broad Market Fund, L.P. (the "Reference Entity")....
Fintag says If you want to download some pdfs of the Rye Select feeder fund, then do so here at your peril.
The 35,000-square-foot house owned by Steven A. Cohen, the heavyweight of the hedge-fund world, is a step closer to getting even bigger.
The planning and zoning commission in Greenwich., Conn., has voted 5-to-0 in favor of his application for a special permit to add about 1,145 square feet to the house, according to a notice posted on the commission's Web site.
The house already sports a basketball court, an indoor pool and an ice rink complete with a garage for the Zamboni machine. What more is in store?
Fintag says 35,000 square feet. Now that is a lot of space. But nothing compared to my pad in Greenwich:
GLOBAL financial intermediation is broken. That intricate and interdependent system directing the world's saving into productive capital investment was severely weakened in August 2007. The disclosure that highly leveraged financial institutions were holding toxic securitised American subprime mortgages shocked market participants. For a year, banks struggled to respond to investor demands for larger capital cushions. But the effort fell short and in the wake of the Lehman Brothers default on September 15th 2008, the system cracked. Banks, fearful of their own solvency, all but stopped lending. Issuance of corporate bonds, commercial paper and a wide variety of other financial products largely ceased. Credit-financed economic activity was brought to a virtual standstill. The world faced a major financial crisis.
looks like MsR has killed your forum Fin, well done her
19 Dec 08 - 09:28 gmt
anonymous said ...
Who was person you were snogging at the chrimbo party Fin?
19 Dec 08 - 09:33 gmt
anonymous said ...
Ms R O'Bull?
19 Dec 08 - 09:37 gmt
MsR said ...
@9.28: To ascribe such magical powers to me is indeed flattering, however I suspect a financial type who let a mere woman stop him from making an incisive comment would be regarded as somewhat impotent.
19 Dec 08 - 09:41 gmt
anonymous said ...
winner: Ms R
19 Dec 08 - 09:50 gmt
MsR said ...
I actually wanted to send happy Christmas wishes to all those who have managed to make comments - Panta, Galway Boy, Macrohedgeboy, Jaa, Alpha60, 13.45, Kong, Tradebot, Fitcaraldo, Supermario, Cockspiv, my favourite Moron and of course the brilliant Bart Simpson. If you are in Valbella and see four teenage boys yelling at someone on the slopes, that someone will be me. There is lots of room at the chalet...
19 Dec 08 - 10:38 gmt
anonymous said ...
ok now you have done that please piss off...merry christmas
19 Dec 08 - 10:43 gmt
cockyspiv said ...
@ MsR - Thank you, at least someone is spreading some good cheer @ xmas!
19 Dec 08 - 10:49 gmt
moral majority said ...
@ anon 10.38 - you are a pr**k
19 Dec 08 - 10:51 gmt
MsR said ...
Let's get this straight, 10.43..you can't make a comment because I am here. Idiot. Suppose you can't trade if the sandwich guy is in the building?
19 Dec 08 - 10:51 gmt
cockyspiv said ...
10.51 ????
19 Dec 08 - 11:02 gmt
13:45 said ...
I can't help it but evil anon makes me laugh, he's just so consistent like moron you always know what you're going to get. I like that. Anyway yes many many happy returns hope you all have a cracking christmas and newyear. @moron, biggest fade in history coming hold on to your pants. @MsR, make sure you put on plenty of suncream as you don't want to come back with a seasonaires tan, fin wouldn't be impressed!
19 Dec 08 - 11:20 gmt
13:45 said ...
@fin, your book is in the office loo along with an old copy of the sunday sport and the ft. many thanks for that @delphi, make sure you don't loose that million, hold on tight! and to the rest of you ahve a good one cheers 13:45
19 Dec 08 - 11:20 gmt
Moron said ...
i think the market is on a rather downward sloping trajectory at the moment:))))
19 Dec 08 - 12:15 gmt
Bart Simpson said ...
(Dog n Bone) Dring Dring (Moron) Mo's Tavern. (Bart) ... (Moron) Uh, who? Kykyoras? Al Kykyoras ! Hey, big guy in the back, Al Kykyoras ? (Moron) wait a minute ...
19 Dec 08 - 12:36 gmt
Jaa said ...
Hmmm...this is a weak corrective rally indeed, the mkt appears to be rolling over.. @ MsR you have seen him off again... keep up the good work and merry xmas!
19 Dec 08 - 12:45 gmt
anonymous said ...
Panta (Italian cock), Galway Boy (Irish cock), Macrohedgeboy, Jaa (boring cock), Alpha60 (desparately uncool cock), 13.45 (no social skills cock), Fitcaraldo (Italian cock), Supermario (Italian cock), Cockspiv (name says it all cock), my favourite Moron (complete cock)
19 Dec 08 - 13:00 gmt
KONG said ...
I feel left out by that summation anon @ 12:45. Gorilla cock perhaps ; )
Merry Xmas to all, I shall be wintering on the Malay penninsula this year, hoping for good surf in Bali nad trying to ride out the inevitable crash that Moron keeps predicting. See you in January.
19 Dec 08 - 13:06 gmt
anonymous said ...
left-no-impression-cock perhaps
19 Dec 08 - 13:07 gmt
Moron said ...
yeah...and anon u r the one who sucks all these cocks mate.......buy urself a big carton of toothpaste for christmas:))
19 Dec 08 - 13:20 gmt
13:45 said ...
hahha, like cock work
19 Dec 08 - 13:33 gmt
KONG said ...
@13.06
No, I'm afraid the anonymous cock has already been taken
19 Dec 08 - 13:36 gmt
Jaa said ...
hahaha.. being cocked off from a fag... haha thats a first
19 Dec 08 - 14:20 gmt
anonymous said ...
Jaa as English isn;t your first language i suggest you don't try and join in with banter, it doesn't work and just makes you look more stupid
19 Dec 08 - 14:33 gmt
anonymous said ...
Fintag says "Funny how nobody reported him to the SEC."
I saw a very detailed submission to the SEC that was done Nov 7, 2005 with 29 "red flags" the person had identified. The same person first presented verbally and in writing their rationale to the SEC's Boston office in May '99.
19 Dec 08 - 14:38 gmt
Finbar said ...
ADVERTISMENT: Fintag's Crap Cartoons on best sellers list ... w w w.flickr.com/photos/fintag/3119832209/
19 Dec 08 - 14:40 gmt
Jaa said ...
anon...dont get upset now love, just keep buying the mkt for me..ta v much
19 Dec 08 - 14:54 gmt
Alpha60 said ...
desparatley uncool cock - LOL - All those hours in trying to cultivate a cool image down the drain!! Happy holidays all...im off to sun it up in dubai and escape the sniffling hordes on the jubilee line!
19 Dec 08 - 14:57 gmt
Not Twisted Anon said ...
@Twisted Anon - funny how you seem to dislike everyone here, and everyone here thinks you are a bell-end cheese grater. Why do you bother? Don't darken fintag.com again and surely everyone including yourself will be happier?
19 Dec 08 - 15:08 gmt
anonymous said ...
hilarious, alpha60 proves uncoolcockery by going to dubai!
19 Dec 08 - 15:30 gmt
Twistedanonisasadhairyguy said ...
Twisted anon= no cock?
19 Dec 08 - 15:37 gmt
Moron said ...
we like twisted anon......surely there must be a way to untwist him...
19 Dec 08 - 15:44 gmt
anonymous said ...
@Moron - Swap positions perhaps?
19 Dec 08 - 15:50 gmt
fitzcaraldo said ...
@MsR: thank you for your best wishes, I am glad my comments were welcome although English is not my first language...Merry Christmas to you, enjoy the slopes, I will stay at home in Barcelona this year...
19 Dec 08 - 15:59 gmt
fitzcaraldo said ...
@anon@12:45: I am not English - you are right, but neither Italian...hahaha...
19 Dec 08 - 16:01 gmt
AthenaDelphi said ...
Fintag: You don't know #5 on your list because he's living quietly in one of the Carolina's (states), not exactly the world capital of finance. They have a nice big building in that city, which is the pride of their skyline...or was
20 Dec 08 - 03:47 gmt
AthenaDelphi said ...
Fintag says Who is this man?
Economist: Banks need more capital
He's the guy who was the equivalent of the ad campaign for EF Hutton. Then he became the guy who is now blamed for it all. Before congress he blamed the free market system itself.
No one ever takes responsibility
20 Dec 08 - 03:53 gmt
Z said ...
What about Vikram on that top 10 list? He is terrible.
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