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28JAN09:
Q1-09 DOW: 8900
Q2-09 DOW: 7250
Q3-09 DOW: 5810
Q4-09 DOW: 3960
CITI NATIONALIZED
OBAMA GETS SICK
27AUG09:
Mini Crash 21SEP09
Predicted correctly:
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Demise of Bear Stearns
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Demise of AIG
Subprime would cause problems
Date of 2007 crash
CRAs were to blame
G20 riots were a party
Northern Rock run
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UBS really was Useless


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THE FINTAG NEWSLETTER
@ Thu 11 December 2008 : GMT

FINTAG COMMENT

Cash or no cash.

I was queried yesterday. Apparently I am not sitting on cash and most hedge funds aren't. Well my response is those who aren't in cash are sitting on lots of illiquid assets. I do have some legacy positions but I need to get some perspective on the markets so I am waiting; not that my investors know - they think I am fully invested.

We have the usual index futures, some commodity shorts and a bunch of notes that we bought because we liked the seller, but if I was to say we are 60 percent cash, would I be representative of the rest of the hedge fund world? Probably not.

Hedge Funds are dishonest. The managers have hidden behind opaqueness for years; they choose the funds' boards, hire and retain yes-men administrators and spread their trades around Prime Brokers who don't see the full picture. We write bland newsletters and pretend illiquids are long term investments and complain that PB's don't know how to book the dividends on short stocks.

We are dishonest because for years the Investment Banks have been even worse.

So if I say I am in cash, take it with a pinch of salt. Hedge Fund managers don't reveal what they do because it is not in their interest. Why is it the people who talk on Bloomberg TV are just commentators? That is because traders' trade and commentators' comment. [Editor: Careful with the apostrophe's].

But enough defending. Today I am wearing a tweed jacket.

I asked, whilst dining at the Greenhouse restaurant, a couple of fellow hedgies what they were sitting on. They told me uncomfortable chairs. But what was more interesting were the number of Europeans hoovering up our cheap food and goods outside.

The UK is the Walmart of Europe.

FINTAGS CRAP BOOK UPDATE
PRESS RELEASE

The treasure hunt now begins. There are 2 copies of Fintag's Crap Cartoons - 2008 in Waterstones, Piccadilly, Mayfair. They are signed and numbered.

Good luck - try the humor section ...



And if you are in Hatchards, just along the road, have a look in the erotica section ....

Your task is to blag your way out with the book as they have been left there by accident.

BANKS UNDER THE COSH AS GBP1 TUMBLES TOWARDS 1EUR

times

The pound is on the verge of parity with the euro as concerns grow over the state of the British economy.

With sterling slumping yesterday to its lowest level yet, £1 was buying just €1.03 at a bureau de change near the Eurostar terminus in London - meaning that an €80 meal for two in Paris now costs more than £77, compared with less than £59 a year ago.
Fintag says
Now let me think about this. A country increases its debt substantially, increases taxes, unemployment is rising and GDP is negative. Doesn't sound like a good place to be. Add on top of this extremely low interest rates and it is not a currency you want to have. Demand falls and the value of the currency falls.

Oops. Only one thing to do to attract that hot money and stop the GBP turning into the peso - RAISE interest rates ...

guardian says " Brown's VAT cut just crass Keynesianism, say Germans "

JUSTICE FOR PENSIONERS: NINE MILLION SHOULD BE GIVEN TAX CUT ON SAVINGS

telegraph

They are backing a Daily Telegraph campaign, launched today, to help Britain's elderly savers maintain their income through the downturn.

It urges Gordon Brown to take measures to stop the over-65s from being crippled by taxes on the savings and share investments they have prudently built up to see them through retirement.

Last night a leading Conservative MP said savers were the "forgotten majority" in the Government "stampede" to stop the financial crisis.
Fintag says
Rioting pensioners is the last thing the UK needs. However, as I have mentioned in the past, low interest rates discourage savings and really hurt those who were responsible during the times of greed.

If was an riotous pensioner, my first task would be to burn down all real estate agents and give a good kicking to civil servants with fat pensions. But I am not a pensioner and do not have Greek blood. Us Brits are complete wimps.

times says " The bankers will die a thousand deaths "

HEDGE FUND STILL COURTING O'NEAL

financial news

Vision Capital Advisors has confirmed that it is still in discussions with ex-Merrill Lynch chairman and chief executive Stanley O'Neal about a post with the New York-based hedge fund manager—potentially his first financial sector role since his controversial departure from Merrill last year.
Fintag says
This is a publicity stunt.

CALIFORNIA BUDGET DEFICIT GROWS TO $14.8 BILLION

bloomberg

California's budget deficit has widened to $14.8 billion for the next seven months, $3.6 billion more than forecast last month, amid lawmaker disagreement on how to close the gap, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger said.

During a press conference in Sacramento, Schwarzenegger said the size of the gap grows by $28,000 every minute the Legislature fails to act. The governor's office estimated last month that the state had an $11.2 billion deficit for the current fiscal year, which ends in June.
Fintag says
So California runs out of money in Febuary. California is the Pakistan of the USA. How do these things happen? Time and time again ...



msn says " The million-dollar-home dream goes poof! "

WHERE DOES THE CITY GO FROM HERE?

independent

The City over the past 350 years has proved itself infinitely adaptable and I passionately believe the City will adapt to the changed circumstances the world finds itself in.

The City faces three major issues compared with different financial centres. New York has much simpler and clearer bankruptcy rules than London, as was demonstrated in the Lehman situation, where the fact people cannot get their custodial securities back after weeks and weeks is appalling.

(Guy Hands, Chief executive, Terra Firma)
Fintag says
Well Mr Hands, as someone who is responsible for the crash (Private Equity Killed the Investment Banks), his postulations are irrelevant. The other commentators are relatively bland too. Worth a read though.

AWARDS FOR ACHIEVEMENT 2008

finance asia

BEST BANK
Deutsche Bank

BEST COMMERCIAL BANK
Citi

BEST PRIVATE BANK
Julius Baer

BEST M&A HOUSE
Morgan Stanley

BEST EQUITIES HOUSE
UBS

BEST EQUITY-LINKED HOUSE
Citi

BEST MID-CAP EQUITY HOUSE
Morgan Stanley

BEST INTERNATIONAL BOND HOUSE, BEST LOCAL CURRENCY BOND HOUSE
HSBC

BORROWER OF THE YEAR
Reliance Industries

BEST FINANCIAL LAW FIRM
Linklaters
Fintag says
That was good for a giggle; Best Equities house - UBS!

ADVICE TO OUR HEDGE FUND FRIENDS, COURTESY OF AQR

dealbreaker

I don't think I have to tell you that times are tough and tensions are flaring. That much, unless you've been continuing to push the Q-tip despite resistance from your eardrum, should be obvious. Some people are taking it better than others, and some people are taking to downright badly. For instance, the owner of a hedge fund based in Greenwich. Let's call him Biff Basness. Business for Biff was once booming. Now, not so much. We, of course, are not the only ones who've pointed this out.
Fintag says
Does anybody understand or read Dealbreaker? I read it everyday but never really understand what is going on.

ftalphaville says " Hedge funds lose $64bn in November "

HEDGE-FUND COLLECTORS BROWSE COLORFUL CURRENCIES AT LUGANO SHOW

bloomberg

Switzerland's asset managers and private bankers haven't drawn much mirth from investing this year, making the timing of the “Art of Money” show in Lugano ironic.

The exhibition by New York-based artist Jenna Lash features a dozen brightly colored images based on currencies, some so familiar they're taken for granted, and others extinct. Works on display feature pensive soldiers from the Lithuanian litas, a haunting Mahatma Gandhi from an Indian rupee, and a red, white and blue George Washington imitating the U.S. dollar.
Fintag says
A friend of mine runs an art gallery in Cork Street. She says the number of people coming through the door has increased ten fold. They are all Investment Banker types - except they are not buying but enjoying the free warmth instead.


43 comments
anonymous said ...
I think that is unfair. UBS is an excellent equities house - its just that its own equity is crap

11 Dec 08 - 08:02 gmt
Davros said ...
I've been enjoying lolfed.com more than dealbreaker recently. The captioned picture makes me laughs.

11 Dec 08 - 09:12 gmt
anonymous said ...
@Fin re "Tourists In The City" - are you entering your cubist phase?

11 Dec 08 - 11:25 gmt
fitzcaraldo said ...
where are yesterday's commentators?

11 Dec 08 - 11:27 gmt
fitzcaraldo said ...
where's MrsR?

11 Dec 08 - 11:28 gmt
Tradebot said ...
GBPeso... to parity and beyond. Parity vs the dollar that is. EURGBP is already a forgone conclusion. Britain is the sick man of Europe again.

11 Dec 08 - 11:37 gmt
Tradebot said ...
...sick with AIDS, Ebola and Toxoplasmosis. And the plague. Gordon Brown is going to subscribe Aspirin for the condition. "Take two and call me back in the morning, Darling."

11 Dec 08 - 11:44 gmt
anonymous said ...
a solution: a government backed tombola system for selling and buying houses. not communist at all.

11 Dec 08 - 11:48 gmt
anonymous said ...
fin, mondrian would have a field day with your little picture.

11 Dec 08 - 11:53 gmt
anonymous said ...
a lot of these comments re GBP are a bit silly; when cable was collapsing everyone was pointing to weakness on this cross, but now that (due to the EUR/$ rally) this is no longer the case (sterling is up 3.5% vs $ vs lows) everyone is switching to citing EUR/GBP. Sterling is in a bad way for sure but let's have some perspective.

11 Dec 08 - 12:50 gmt
anonymous said ...

I am in waterstones and have read the erotica - no cartoons though

11 Dec 08 - 12:55 gmt
GateMeIfYouCan said ...
Best comment you wrote in a while...maximum depression factor.

11 Dec 08 - 13:14 gmt
MsR said ...
@anonymous. No it's erotica in Hatchards (I said upstairs but Fin won on that one) and humour in Waterstones.

11 Dec 08 - 13:25 gmt
Tradebot said ...
uh huh. Anon@11.53. Clueless. Are you Anatole Kaletsky in disguise?Cable rally is due to USD weakeness. It won't last. However, GBPeso sucks vs EUR or JPY or CHF.

11 Dec 08 - 14:15 gmt
anonymous said ...
that'll be anon 12.50 Tradebot. but fair comment

11 Dec 08 - 14:18 gmt
Bart Simpson said ...
(Dog n Bone) Ring Ring
(Moron) Moron's Tavern.
(Bart) ...
(Moron) Uh, Huggenkiss. Hey, I'm looking for Amanda Huggenkiss! Ah, why can't I find Amanda Huggenkiss ?
(Barney) Maybe your standards are too high!


11 Dec 08 - 14:38 gmt
Moron said ...
Bart Simpson is misunderstood. Wrongly pegged as an underachiever and troublemaker, Bart would like to remind the world of some of his decent qualities: He looks out for his sister, Lisa; he's befriended outcasts and misfits like Milhouse Van Houten and Ralph Wiggum; he's injected romance into the life of his teacher, Edna Krabappel; and he brought down an illegal French winery during his brief semester abroad......so what if the idi*t gets the market wrong...he can always be a poet:))

11 Dec 08 - 14:47 gmt
Bard Simpson said ...
Who's the greater fool ?
The fool ?
Or the fool who call's the fool a fool ?

11 Dec 08 - 14:53 gmt
anonymous said ...
Tradebot has some very strong views on Sterling and he may be right or he may be wrong. But the reality is almost no FX hedge funds or traders make money consistently, simply because currencies are very difficult to get right. So Anon if I were you I would treat his remarks as a bit of entertainment rather than any serious investment advice!

11 Dec 08 - 14:54 gmt
anonymous said ...
Loving Bart Simpson's quotes and Moron's riposte...theres a sitcom in the making here - dare i suggest "the odd couple"

11 Dec 08 - 14:55 gmt
Sweet & Sour said ...
@Tradebot "Gordon Brown is going to subscribe Aspirin for the condition", what is your prescription?....could it be 'do nothing'?

11 Dec 08 - 15:00 gmt
Moron said ...
At age 10, Bart has managed to live out a number of dreams: He has starred in his own short-lived TV series (with his idol, Krusty the Clown), spotted and named a deadly comet that nearly destroyed his town, and almost snagged the role of Fallout Boy in the Radioactive Man movie. He couldn't have done any of those things without the help and support of his best friend, Santa's Little Helper.....Bart Simpson is the clown who aint got a clue:))



11 Dec 08 - 15:03 gmt
anonymous said ...
Tradebot has a very billions-wiped-off-share-values-evening-standard-approach to investing it seems

11 Dec 08 - 15:19 gmt
MsR said ...
@Moron: I am loving your new literary incarnation:) Didn't know you had it in you.



11 Dec 08 - 15:29 gmt
Moron said ...
ms R I am a multitalented idiot:)))

11 Dec 08 - 15:38 gmt
Moron said ...
Ah, but this young Sprinfieldianite has staying power: staying in the fourth grade, to the endless vexation of his teacher and his principal. This young scamp — with his paper bag-shaped head, his body's jagged, modernist silhouette — may be "yellow trash" to the town gentry, but to his mother and everyone else, he's our special little guy....mother for sure...not convinced abt everyone else:))



11 Dec 08 - 15:43 gmt
anonymous said ...
hey moron, what's with the stupid smiley faces...v annoying!

11 Dec 08 - 15:54 gmt
MsR said ...
@Moron: I never doubted it.

11 Dec 08 - 15:55 gmt
PNT said ...
@ BART

I wont buy toxic assets anymore, I wont buy toxic assets anymore, I wont buy toxic assets anymore, I wont buy toxic assets anymore, I wont buy toxic assets anymore,I wont buy toxic assets anymore, I wont buy toxic assets anymore, I wont buy toxic assets anymore, I wont buy toxic assets anymore, I wont buy toxic assets anymore,

11 Dec 08 - 15:55 gmt
not a martian said ...
gah! i wrote a long rant. what happened to it? where did it go? the internet ate my comment

11 Dec 08 - 16:51 gmt
anonymous said ...
i'm suspecting it wasn't worth reading

11 Dec 08 - 17:00 gmt
not a martian said ...
... smells like a media convention then ...

11 Dec 08 - 17:08 gmt
anonymous said ...
Ah, such a shame that Moron is unable to think for himself, but has blatantly plagiarised that description of Bart Simpson from the "time.com" website.

11 Dec 08 - 17:16 gmt
Moron said ...
well.....it made u laugh mate...thats what matters.....

11 Dec 08 - 17:21 gmt
book thief said ...
I've just been arrested for shoplifting at Waterstones

11 Dec 08 - 17:52 gmt
Tradebot said ...
Hey, I have been short the GBPeso ever since Moron shorted equities. It is a competition...race to the floor.
re: no hedgies being succesful in FX. How about Quantum? However, yes i do more than FX but short GBPeso is my favourite risk/reward trade at the mo.

11 Dec 08 - 18:54 gmt
Tradebot said ...
Well that will be kiss of death for that trade. I've cursed it now. Shouldn't gloat.

Oh, yes, I far prefer Government to "do nothing" than "do fix". Generally the Government fixes tend to go pear shaped in the end.

11 Dec 08 - 19:00 gmt
anonymous said ...
When will this blasted equities bear market rally end?

11 Dec 08 - 19:24 gmt
Moron said ...
its ended mate....as i said yesterday.....take a look at key technical indicators i u know which ones to look out for.....and take a look at the action in the treasuries.....bart simpson is gonna get his ass kicked and he doesnt even know it:))))

11 Dec 08 - 19:51 gmt
Yikes! said ...
The Madoff firm had about $17.1 billion in assets under management as of Nov. 17, according to NASD records. At least 50 percent of its clients were hedge funds, and others included banks and wealthy individuals, according to the records.

Madoff’s Web site advertises the “high ethical standards” of the firm.

11 Dec 08 - 23:32 gmt
Kramer said ...
Dec. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Bernard Madoff, president of market- maker Bernard Madoff Investment Securities and a former chairman of the Nasdaq Stock Market, was charged by U.S. prosecutors in a $50 billion securities fraud at his investment advisory business.

11 Dec 08 - 23:34 gmt
anonymous said ...
With the Madoff explosion now none it will trigger the CDS markets to likewise blowup!

CDS's are a completely made-up "asset" based on false or even fraudulent assumption with zero transparency same as the Madoff comapnay.

12 Dec 08 - 03:39 gmt
Free Willy said ...
In 2001, Barron's reported that Madoff's firm was one of the three top market makers in Nasdaq stocks and the third-largest firm matching buyers and sellers of securities on the New York Stock Exchange.

Could be some awfully illiquid securities out there now, with no market-maker behind them...

12 Dec 08 - 05:48 gmt

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