28JAN09:
Q1-09 DOW: 8900
Q2-09 DOW: 7250
Q3-09 DOW: 5810
Q4-09 DOW: 3960
CITI NATIONALIZED
OBAMA GETS SICK 27AUG09:
Mini Crash 21SEP09 Predicted correctly:
Bailout=Bonuses
Demise of Bear Stearns
Demise of Lehman Bros.
Demise of AIG
Subprime would cause problems
Date of 2007 crash
CRAs were to blame
G20 riots were a party
Northern Rock run
Northern Rock Nationalization
HBOS and RBS demise
UBS really was Useless
It is becoming clearer. Bush's ill fated US Patriot Act is a major cause for the current credit crunch. I arrived back from the land of the depressed to find a pile of mail on my doormat. Apart from the usual invites to the best parties, there were a couple of credit card applications. Quite simple really. You sign your name, check the details are correct and send in the free post envelope. 7 days later a piece of plastic arrives and I have GBP15,000 of debt.
So where was the junk mail selling high deposit rates, high yielding bonds, or sexy new savings accounts? Well it is because despite the banks wanting cash, it is too much of a hassle to collect it. Firstly I have to complete many forms, send off copies of my passport, notarised of course, utility bills, driving license identification, social security numbers, etc. All very useful for your local Identity Theft merchant.
Collecting this information is all part of know your client and anti-money laundering. Mellon sent me a letter saying they wanted proof as to who I was. It is a small unit trust that I have had for about 7 years. Why? I haven't moved house, my gender is still the same and they have the cheek to tell me I cannot redeem unless they get samples of my DNA and third party proof that my IQ is less than 90.
Taking out debt is still just too easy. Saving money is near impossible.
Northern Rock opened up some new accounts yesterday and my PA went to open up a deposit account. She took two large carrier bags of information that she thought they would need but of course forgot the most important one. A copy of her tax return. So she failed in her quest.
I told her to put GBP10,000 onto her Oyster card instead. Who needs banks eh? The rates of return are so low you might as well not bother. Low interest rates are not good for economies in the long run.
Anyway, the markets are bouncing nicely off the DOW 7550 support level and should come back down nicely at the end of December so that I can collect my "Predictor of the Year Award".
My book which launched yesterday, FINTAG'S CRAP CARTOONS - 2008, had 350 views and unbelievable as it may seem, 18 copies have been bought. Before long I will be on the New York Times best seller list and having to go on author tours with attractive PR women.
The fun is of course just beginning. My Banksy treasure hunt has been planned and I will give some indications as to where the signed copies will be hidden nearer the time. Of course [Editor: Is this your catch phrase?] this competition is only open to Londoners but may extend out to the rest of the uncivilised world later. 15th December it is.
Satellite Asset Management, founded by former employees of billionaire George Soros, stopped client withdrawals from its three largest hedge funds, Bloomberg reported.
The company also eliminated more than 30 jobs, after losses reduced the firm's assets to about $4 billion this year, according to the report.
UBS, the Swiss banking giant, announced a sweeping overhaul of historic practice yesterday with executive bonuses worth SwFr70 million (£38 million) to be forfeited and the partial end of client secrecy.
Faced with a storm of protests from shareholders over the group's response to the sub-prime crisis and to a tax inquiry in the US, Peter Kurer, the chairman, was contrite as he addressed an extraordinary general meeting in Lucerne. In an attempt to restore the battered reputation of an institution seen as a pillar of the national economy, Mr Kurer said that he and other members of the executive board would forgo their multimillion-dollar bonuses this year.
Fintag says I bet they wish they didn't have shareholders.
[HT to CO]
CITIZEN JOURNALISTS TOLD TO STOP USING TWITTER TO UPDATE ON BOMBAY ATTACKS
News on the Bombay attacks is breaking fast on Twitter with hundreds of people using the site to update others with first-hand accounts of the carnage.
The website has a stream of comments on the attacks which is being updated by the second, often by eye-witnesses and people in the city. Although the chatter cannot be verified immediately and often reflects the chaos on the streets, it is becoming the fastest source of information for those seeking unfiltered news from the scene.
In the past hour, people using Twitter reported that bombings and attacks were continuing, but none of these could be confirmed. Others gave details on different locations in which hostages were being held.
Fintag says Shocking eh? I can just imagine a gun man stopping for a moment to check his blackberry and make sure he is following the news reporters on twitter before offloading some more bullets.
The slump in house prices eased off in November with prices falling by just 0.4%, according to the Nationwide, the UK's largest building society.
The mortgage lender said the rate of price falls "moderated significantly" when compared with October's 1.3% fall.
Fintag says These indices are a joke. How can you construct an index when there is no underlying market? All the estate agents near me are empty, and there are no mortgages. The Nationwide has a massive conflict of interest. It sells mortgages.
Eurozone official interest rates are almost certain to be slashed again next week by at least half a percentage point after a survey on Thursday showed the region facing its worst downturn since the recession of the early 1990s.
Economic confidence in the 15-country region crashed this month to its lowest point since August 1993, the European Commission reported. With inflation also falling rapidly, the European Central Bank has not sought to stop financial markets assuming its main interest rate will be cut next Thursday from 3.25 per cent to 2.75 per cent or below.
Fintag says So where did all that Euro Inflation go?
Holger Haerter is the Principal CFO of Porsche LLP and therefore, thanks to some creative fun with call options, a nemesis to the hedge fund world.
Anyway, courtesy of our colleague Daniel Schaefer in Frankfurt, we hear Mr Haerter thinks Basel II should be abolished in order to ease the credit squeeze facing car suppliers.
We demand the suspension of those rules, to give companies a breathing space in the current economic situation!
In the end, markets will be destroyed by a lack of liquidity.
Fintag says Basel II eh? This is what caused the Japanese to redeem from hedge funds many moons ago. Sometimes transparency isn't what it is cracked up to be ...
guardian says " Porsche savages US rivals for seeking handouts "
The full scope of the housing meltdown isn't clear and already there are ominous signs of a new crisis - one that could turn out the lights on malls, hotels and storefronts nationwide.
Even as the holiday shopping season begins in full swing, the same events poisoning the housing market are now at work on commercial properties, and the bad news is trickling in. Malls from Michigan to Georgia are entering foreclosure.
Hotels in Tucson, Ariz., and Hilton Head, S.C., also are about to default on their mortgages.
Fintag says America is being foreclosed. If everyone forecloses then they might as well give everyone their assets back and start over. It would be much easier for everyone.
As they have for 50 years, Americans here packed St. Paul's Cathedral on Thursday for an annual Thanksgiving service that, as evocatively as any event on the calendar, nurtures the home thoughts from abroad that are a staple of expatriate life.
Four marines from the American Embassy detachment in London, three of them Iraq war veterans, carried the Stars and Stripes and the Marine Corps colors across the marbled floor beneath the cathedral's soaring dome and laid them before the altar. As the banners were borne out at the service's end, the congregation of 3,500, many of them families with small children, raised a moving crescendo for the last verse of “America the Beautiful.”
Fintag says Nice.
52 comments
athenadelphi said ...
I'm happy the actual amount spent has been only 1.7 trillion out of the 7.something trillion "available". Seems to me, that Paulson and Bernanke better go on a savings spree before President Elect O get his hands on it and blows it on GM - union voters as payback. Give the other 5.3 trillion to the banks and insurers immediately, before they get nationalized.
28 Nov 08 - 07:09 gmt
athenadelphi said ...
Fintag, didn't you get the memo that the EAGLE on the back of the US quarter is passe? Too war like. Instead the mint has issued 50 quarters, 1 for each state, with icons for the stupid regarding what the state is known for most. Wisconsin's is cheese and so has dairy cows on the back of it. Arizona's has a saguaro cactus when its should say 'peso' and have an agave (tequila) on it for future takeover attempts.
28 Nov 08 - 07:14 gmt
athenadelphi said ...
Soros - I really wish he'd slide into oblivion. He's taken the position of G*D as well as Loki with regard to people's lives, all the while trying desperately to prove his economic theory so he can get a Nobel prize in the field.
All roads of leftist/labour/greenparty/socialism parties lead to Soros funding. What's his beef? That his country wasn't liberated soon enough from the commies? His grudge knows no bounds.
28 Nov 08 - 07:18 gmt
athenadelphi said ...
@Fintag: "All America is being foreclosed....they might as well give their assets back and start over."
Please see above comment on the 5.3 Trillion left that hasn't been used but will be by congress giving the money to homebuyers.
28 Nov 08 - 07:30 gmt
athenadelphi said ...
Which leads me to the big question: Will the gov't nationalize housing here in America?
I spent $202,000 for my house in 1996. Remodeling over 12 years cost $450,000. I owe $127,000. What would the gov't give me for my home?
Paging Dr. Zhivago. Stat history lesson needed about boshevik revolution and housing redistribution.
In the end; what is anything worth then?
28 Nov 08 - 07:31 gmt
athenadelphi said ...
We will have to retest the interday low of 7480 on the Dow...sometime.
28 Nov 08 - 07:46 gmt
athenadelphi said ...
According to BabsonChart: 882 was resistance on the S&P which we hare now at 889.
28 Nov 08 - 07:47 gmt
athenadelphi said ...
2 last points before this becomes a FiNTAG/AthenaDelphi blog:
1. Find the video from CNBC on Wednesday where they made mention that the USA is now the worlds largest HEDGE FUND with a 10:1 leverage (currently)
2. are you going to be hiring Simon Treacher now that BlueBay closes its EM fund? If you even think about it, I'm sending my resume to you. I'm obviously better them him as I've only lost 1.2% this year and I'm not a hedge fund mgr, only a daytrader with a mind.
28 Nov 08 - 07:57 gmt
macrohedgeboy said ...
Athena darling, don't you have better things to do with your first hour at MW.....
28 Nov 08 - 08:13 gmt
Shane Warne said ...
Fintag, how did you miss the BlueBay goings on?
28 Nov 08 - 08:19 gmt
Finbar said ...
@warne Conflict of interest perhaps?
28 Nov 08 - 08:44 gmt
anonymous said ...
Can we have Ms R back. Athena is boring
28 Nov 08 - 09:12 gmt
anonymous said ...
@anon @08:44 - yes, we want Ms R back in this gloom - TGIF...
28 Nov 08 - 09:51 gmt
Macrohedgeboy said ...
Yes, lets have MsR back
28 Nov 08 - 10:48 gmt
anonymous said ...
Like Ms R's first husband, most of us definitely do not want her back
28 Nov 08 - 10:50 gmt
Ms R said ...
@twisted anon: What a stupid assumption! IF you've read my blog properly you'll know my ex and I are best pals. He is still a lovely man and is in fact coming over to bring me things to make my cold better. So do not DARE to make such personal assumptions. You are the only one who is afraid of me and probably the only one not getting laid, so why don't you f**k off.
Now, everyone, what are we doing for Christmas fun. Fin is taking me to KFC
28 Nov 08 - 11:05 gmt
Ms R said ...
BTW "most of us"...your generalisation suggests poor schooling. Minor public school? Potato on shoulder?
28 Nov 08 - 11:09 gmt
Top Cat said ...
Ms R - back with a punch. Do not cross her!
28 Nov 08 - 11:23 gmt
Alpha60 said ...
@MsR do provide the link to your blog, would be interested in having a look.
P.S KFC for xmas fun. Fintag your too generous...lol
28 Nov 08 - 11:25 gmt
Ms R said ...
In fairness, Alpha60 Fin has taken me to quite a few restaurants in past weeks..we like Moro as they know me well there and but on my suggestion we went to Andrew Edmunds and he liked that. I have even dragged him to Hoxton...it's part of his boho education. @TC I must email you
My blog is social commentary.fair bit of satire.. look in the sidebar for the best bits. Today's is a bit political..my anti Guardian post.
womanofexperience.blogspot.com
28 Nov 08 - 11:33 gmt
BlueBaby said ...
I wonder if I will get an invite to the Chrimbo party?
28 Nov 08 - 11:52 gmt
anonymous said ...
We could all go to KFC in post-modern ironic way. Fin can pay of course
28 Nov 08 - 11:54 gmt
GP said ...
I’m intrigued what came first fintag or ms R's blog? And did you guys meet at a secret blog convention?
28 Nov 08 - 12:03 gmt
Blackcat said ...
Ms R - I like you're style.
28 Nov 08 - 12:15 gmt
Alpha60 said ...
@MsR tanned body and lingerie, Fintag is indeed a lucky man!!
28 Nov 08 - 12:18 gmt
MsR said ...
@Alpha60. Fin and I are friends. We lunch a lot and throw ideas around. @Blackcat: Thank you. @GP: Well bloggers do get to know each other..you meet one, then you meet a couple but generally I don't correspond with them except for a couple of barristers a couple of the big political bloggers and one or two of the more amusing 'sex' bloggers.
But no, I don't have lunch with them, only Fin since he has no work to do anymore and I am a writer who needs distraction.
28 Nov 08 - 12:24 gmt
anonymous said ...
@Ms R: Friends indeed? So are you available for lunch?
28 Nov 08 - 12:50 gmt
MsR said ...
@anon. Friends indeed. Lunch, well that depends...
28 Nov 08 - 13:19 gmt
Moron said ...
ladies...and gentlemen....in the midst of all this passion...not sure if anyone has noticed...a number of stocks have hit their technical resistance and started rolling over...time to get a bit aggressive in fading this rally...twisted anon...this may be ur last chance to salvage ur sinking apology of a career mate:)))))
28 Nov 08 - 13:32 gmt
MsR said ...
@Moron: that is passion? No wonder we haven't got together:)
I will let you instruct the troops and hope you can get some joy before Santa turns up and go and nurse my cold
28 Nov 08 - 13:35 gmt
Moron said ...
ms R....I am all abt joy and passion:))))
28 Nov 08 - 13:44 gmt
anonymous said ...
Thanks for the tip Moron. Hope your PB hasn't been making too many collateral calls lately, considering your persistant short calling over the last few days and the 1000 odd point rise in the Dow from its low this year...haha!
28 Nov 08 - 13:50 gmt
anonymous said ...
@anonymous - don't be silly. Moron doesn't actually do any trades, he is just someone who comes on this site to look clever. Nobody would trust anyone that dim with one cent to manage
28 Nov 08 - 13:55 gmt
Moron said ...
collateral calls depend on ur entry point for the trade mate....1000 points are then irrelevant if u have the buffer.....u'll figure that out someday i'm sure:)))
28 Nov 08 - 14:03 gmt
anonymous said ...
Oh really Moron a buffer you say. Still doesn't detract from the fact your calls over the last few days have been all WRONG and would see you or anyone listening to you quite underwater. Everyone gets lucky with 1 big trade, even you.
28 Nov 08 - 15:34 gmt
Moron said ...
Anon u make me laugh mate
28 Nov 08 - 15:40 gmt
Moron said ...
Anyone who understands this business will tell u it is not humanly possible to catch every market move as long as u get more right than wrong by a decent margin u are smilng and it helps to get the big picture right the best people dont need to pretend to be perfect mate
28 Nov 08 - 15:54 gmt
Macrohedgeboy said ...
Nice to see you back MsR. Eaten anywhere decent recently? Need ideas for a recession lunch.....
28 Nov 08 - 15:56 gmt
MsR said ...
@MacroHedgeboy; I like consistent restaurants with a buzz not overpriced temples..I always like Moro (but I live in that part of the world), ate at Hix Oyster and Chop House..nice but sporadic service and more businessy. Roka I like very much but more for dinner I think and expensive. Bleeding Heart is good and huge wine list if you like reading plus great service. Semplice was also very good.
28 Nov 08 - 16:12 gmt
anonymous said ...
and again Ms R returns to subvert the point of this blog -- vapid, pointless wannabe
28 Nov 08 - 16:35 gmt
MsR said ...
@Twisted anon: Unlike you sh*tforbrains, I am well received here. You do not count. So why don't you just shut up and people will only hate you for the way you look. You are jealous that people actually like me....god you are sad.
Tell me f*ckface, if a bloke had been asked to recommend restaurants would you have jumped in. Now run off: it must be time for your £20 hooker no?
28 Nov 08 - 16:40 gmt
Ms R said ...
PS: I am Fin's mate. And you are not. So I am welcome to subvert what I like. You on the other hand are a laughing stock. Now, it's time for tea.
28 Nov 08 - 16:41 gmt
RiskArb said ...
Any views on the Conti - Schaeffler takeover ??
28 Nov 08 - 16:41 gmt
anonymous said ...
I hate girls who swear, so very unattractive.
28 Nov 08 - 17:02 gmt
Boredwithtwistedanon said ...
anon: you deserve more than than a few swear words. You have been 100 times more personal and insulting. We don't like you. We like Ms R
28 Nov 08 - 17:08 gmt
anonymous said ...
Dow up 100 odd points again. Moron u listening?
28 Nov 08 - 18:07 gmt
Moron said ...
Anon im still laughing mate u sound like a 21 year old amateur who is completely out of control
28 Nov 08 - 18:29 gmt
athenadelphi said ...
@MrsRon - thank you for showing up. I felt I was the only woman here. Poor FiNTAG has to have me as first poster as Night postings are the last thing bleeding out of my brain before going to bed, so I'm sorry if they're boring.
All I can say is I work at a country western bar (pub?) on the weekends and its the only chance I get to swallow.
I'm off to nice cold rainy Seattle for a week. Have fun without me.
29 Nov 08 - 07:42 gmt
athenadelphi said ...
BTW - one last question if anyone can answer - Is Capt. Jack coming back to the series Torchwood?
29 Nov 08 - 07:45 gmt
fitzcaraldo said ...
Fin, "Merry X-Mas from UBS" cartoon, just great...
29 Nov 08 - 10:54 gmt
The Captain said ...
@athenadelphi - yes, he is.
30 Nov 08 - 08:53 gmt
MsR said ...
Hello Athena Delphi: very funny comment about swallowing...don't justify yourself- it is a public blog like all our blogs. I know Fin likes it that it's read by all sorts of people - he is not your typical Aspergers type financier but a person who sees beyond it all. It is rainy in London too. I am off for a massage (a real one..not a euphemism)
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