28JAN09:
Q1-09 DOW: 8900
Q2-09 DOW: 7250
Q3-09 DOW: 5810
Q4-09 DOW: 3960
CITI NATIONALIZED
OBAMA GETS SICK 30SEP08:
31DEC08 INDICES:
FTSE100:3550
DOW30:7550
# HEDGE FUNDS:4425 30JUN08: Oil to be USD200 by 30OCT08 USA Inflation to be 7.5% by 30OCT08
...oops 23APR08:
Next Rights Issue:
HBOS...yes
All & Lec ...
...1 Nil. 17APR08: Oil to be USD127 by 30SEP08
...16MAY08 losing my touch 27FEB08:
2 Banks go bust by 30JUN08
BS down, Lehman (a bit late I know) 20NOV07: Northern Crock to be sold for 15p
Nationalized 01NOV07: Oil to be USD103 EOM
...peaked too soon 08OCT07:
SEC to fine Goldman for pricing issues
...still waiting 15JUN07: ML to buy-out BS
JPM got there first 06JUN07: The Big Crash: 17OCT07
...well it's here
Here are some observations. Just before the last nasty recession (and we had wikipedia to give us a definition) in the early 1980's, there were plenty of signals that the times were going to get a lot tougher. Take festivals. These suddenly stopped and bands started to play in clubs again. The UK has had hundreds of pop festivals this year. Bloated pop stars playing bloated music. When the world gets gloomy, the festivals stop. And so does the wearing of flared trousers. Straights are back in. Clothes are black and gray. Shops are selling "back to basic food" stuffs. The people are hiding away at home and watching TV / pirated DVD's. TV programs are about cooking and surviving on a tin of beans. Non brand handbags are in. Fashion is out. People pretend to drive to work when they are unemployed. And extreme politics comes back into vogue.
On a recent trip to UBS (before it too closes down) I took this photo of animal rights activists targeting a fund. Another sign that the people are restless. Best to hide that gold Rolex and trade down the Maserati for a clapped out old hummer (before they are banned completely from our roads).
When we have credit we feel on top of the world. When the credit stops were feel like shit. And that is where we are today. Piles of the brown stuff.
So you have a couple of trillion of pension dollars to invest. Everything is going down. Equities, bonds, commodities, real estate, hedge funds. You are not mandated to sit on cash, which is being eroded by inflation, and your asset allocation committee has to look at some charts every 3 months. Help. What do you do? This is a question on all our lips.
Today's news is so gloomy I suggest you get a double espresso from your local Starbucks (before it closes down) and check your hem line or width of your tie. They could be telling you something.
Fears of a fresh spate of hedge fund collapses grew today as it emerged that the $2 trillion industry had put in its worst investment performance during the first half of the year since most credible records began.
The dreadful start, the worst in almost 20 years, was attributed to the slide in world equity markets, the onset of economic gloom in Europe and America and the continued souring effects of the international credit crunch.
Hedge fund returns during the first six months were more dismal than in 1998, when Long-Term Capital Management failed spectacularly, almost bringing the international financial system to its knees and when Russia defaulted on its debt obligations and the Asian crisis raged.
According to Hedge Fund Research, the investment performance among alternative asset managers globally fell by almost 0.7 per cent in June. This took the year to date return to minus 0.75 per cent. The Chicago-based researcher has not recorded such a bad start to a year since it began amassing records in 1990.
Fintag says I think something strong than an espresso is required here.
This is shaping up to be a pretty bad summer for touring. A lot of tours are having trouble. The sheds (like Jones Beach) are having a particularly hard time selling seats. The economic difficulties are showing up in weak ticket sales. A lot of people are reluctant to spend all that money on gas getting to the show, paying for parking and then beer -- on top of the concert tickets.
By contrast, movie box office is doing reasonably well, most likely because the prices are reasonable, there have been some decent movies this year and with people staying closer to home, movies are a vacation substitute. Much cheaper to take a family to Wall-E than to Disney or Six Flags...
One by one, John Devaney sold his treasures, hoping to forestall what was in the end inevitable. He sold his Renoir and his Gulfstream, his home and his helicopter. Even his cherished yacht — gone.
But on Wednesday Mr. Devaney, who made and then lost a fortune trading mortgage investments, finally called it quits. He shut his hedge fund, and told his investors that all their money was gone too.
“I'm devastated, I'm totally devastated,” Mr. Devaney said by telephone from Aspen, Colo. “I feel horrible that I've lost my own money and that so many people who saw the skills I have and trusted in us have now been hurt.”
Fintag says Now I am depressed. Having to say goodbye to the private jet after years of avoiding back packers? Forget the espresso, move onto the hard stuff.
bloomberg says " United Capital Liquidates Funds, Investors Get Zero "
Hedge fund manager Man Group (LSE: EMG.L - news) said funds under management (FUM) rose to $79.5bn at 30 June
The group said it has benefited from reduced redemption rates in the quarter, combined with positive performance across its core investment managers.
Demand for its fund products has remained strong, both from private investors and institutions, with sales in its first quarter to 30 June 2008 totaling $5bn.
"This success in asset raising reflects the Group's broad geographic presence and the continued attraction of conservatively structured alternative investment products," it said.
"With the continued expansion of our sales network and our product range, the Board remains confident of the Group's prospects for the year," added the group.
Fintag says Put that line of coke away ...their is a glimmer of normality ...Man (who have probably double counted on their FUM since most of its advisory) are todays winners of the award for non-gloom news.
A former Morgan Stanley client service representative pleaded guilty yesterday to possessing a stolen list of the firm's prime brokerage clients, among other proprietary information.
In addition to the list of hedge fund clients, Ronald Peteka admitted he received via e-mail formulas used to calculate rates paid by those clients, sending the stolen information to his Long Island, N.Y., home. Another former Morgan Stanley employee, Ira Chilowitz, pleaded guilty last year to stealing the data, which he said he and Peteka planned to use to generate business for a consulting firm.
Fintag says Put that USB hard drive into your top draw right now ...
New rules on disclosing short positions are having little benefit but have jeopardised the reputation of the Financial Services Authority and damaged Britain's investor-friendly standing, critics say.
The watchdog is coming under fire for rapidly implementing, with negligible consultation, rules that force investors to disclose short positions on companies carrying out a rights issue.
The International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA) has written to the FSA to voice concerns about the new regulations while leading lawyers and consultants are adding their weight to a growing campaign of discontent.
Fintag says This whole debacle is a debacle. The FSA has lost its credibility which is a shame because it used to be quite a good regulator. We can blame Northern Rock. With the increase in the returns that have to be filed including these shorting ones (great for letting the world know what the hedge funds think of a stock - it just self perpetuates the demise) the FSA is now a data repository that occasionally has to bully unwilling banks to buy out property players like Alliance & Leicester and HBOS.
The heads of the G8 governments, meeting this week, are about to ratify the Anti-Counterfeiting Trade Agreement (Acta), which - it's claimed - could let customs agents search your laptop or music player for illegally obtained content. The European Parliament is considering a law that would lead to people who illicitly download copyrighted music or video content being thrown off the internet. Virgin Media is writing to hundreds of its customers at the request of the UK record industry to warn them that their connections seem to have been used for illegal downloading. Viacom gets access to all of the usernames and IP addresses of anyone who has ever used YouTube as part of its billion-dollar lawsuit in which it claims the site has been party to "massive intentional copyright infringement".
Fintag says Here we go again ...
DON'T LET 'BRAVE NEW BRITAIN' REMOVE OUR FUNDAMENTAL RIGHTS
Today's by-election in Haltemprice and Howden is not normal. It is extraordinary.
The people there are not being asked to consider the competing policies of government and opposition. They are being asked to think about who we are, what we stand for and whether we will continue to be the country built by previous generations. This is a fight about how much of our liberty the state can remove, before it changes who - and what - we are.
As a voting issue, it may appear less immediate than the financial downturn. There will be no debate about standards of living, but rather the standards we choose to live by. I hope the people of East Yorkshire come out in greater numbers than ever, because the issue is more vital than even our immediate food and fuel bills.
Fintag says An excuse to use this photo of Saint Bob talking about who he wouldn't give a Christmas present to (for the youngsters out there, Green was Geldof's father in law in later years):
TOURADJI HEDGE FUND FELL 9.4% IN JUNE AS COMMODITIES RALLIED
Paul Touradji, the commodities trader who warned the market may collapse, posted a 9.4 percent loss in his main hedge fund last month as energy, food and metals prices rallied, said two investors with knowledge of the matter.
The decline left the $2.5 billion Global Resources Fund down 11.9 percent in the first half of the year, said the investors, who declined to be identified because the performance numbers are private. Touradji, whose New York-based Touradji Capital Management LP oversees $3.5 billion, declined to comment.
Fintag says How does one slit their wrists? Surely once you have attacked one wrist, the hand cannot hold the knife to do the other?
reuters says " Fewer U.S. hedge fund starts so far this year "
HEDGE FUNDS FLED BEAR STEARNS BEFORE THE RUMORS HIT
We're a bit of a one-trick pony around here today, fighting the good fight against all those nasty speculating reporters and bankers claiming rumors are having damaging effects on the market. But it's getting late in the day. Bank of America is still pretending it doesn't need to cut its dividend. Merrill still won't admit it needs more money, but its stock dropped 9% today. Lehman's down 11% on now news. (Somebody catch those rumor mongers!) Freddie and Fannie are off 24% and 13%. Why should we bother even pretending anything else we could cover is this much fun?
Fintag says This is old news. Check my rants about Bear Stearns 3 months before its hedge funds blew up.
Obrem Capital Management has formally withdrawn its attempt to replace the board of computer products manufacturer Micrel as hedge funds are waging a smaller percentage of US activist shareholder campaigns for the third straight year.
Obrem, a hedge fund founded in 2005 by Andrew Rechtschaffen, a former employee of Citadel Investment Group, is Micrel's largest independent shareholder.
Fintag says Even less alpha...
FOUR OF SIX DOW JONES HEDGE FUND INDEXES ARE LOSERS IN JUNE
Four of the six hedge fund strategies covered by the Dow Jones Hedge Fund Indexes posted net-of-fees losses in June 2008.
Event-driven posted the worst loss, down 2.80%. Distressed securities was down 1.36%, merger arbitrage fell 1.03% and convertible arbitrage dipped 0.08%.
Equity long/short (up 0.53%) and equity market neutral (up 1.90%) were the only strategies posting gains for June.
On a quarterly basis, five of the six strategies posted gains in the second quarter. All six were down in the first quarter of 2008.
Greg Coffey is leaving big shoes to fill at GLG Partners. So big, in fact, that they will be filled by three people.
The London hedge fund completed its succession plan for the star manager, who is set to depart in October to found his own hedge fund, and continued its recent hiring spree with the addition of two Morgan Stanley veterans to take over three of Coffey's funds, the Financial Times reports. Among the funds that Bart Turtelboom and Karim Abdel-Motaal will jointly run is Coffey's—and the firm's—largest, with US$4.6 billion in assets.
Fintag says ...assuming it has any funds left when he leaves, this could be an expensive waste of time.
Nearly 1,000 bags are still going missing every day at Heathrow's Terminal 5, MPs have been told.
'The [Terminal 5 baggage] system is still resulting in significant numbers of bags not being reunited with passengers', MPs were told
The figure casts serious doubt on British Airways's public assurances that the cause of the chaos seen during the terminal's opening days in March has been addressed.
Giving evidence at a House of Commons Select Committee meeting to examine March's events, union leaders representing baggage handlers said that on average, 932 bags go missing at the terminal every day.
Steve Turner, Civil Air Transport National Secretary of Unite, said: "The system is still resulting in significant numbers of bags not being reunited with passengers. It will happen today and it will happen tomorrow."
Fintag says ...and I am one of those whose luggage went awol. Another great British achievement. Now its time to find an open window ...
18 comments
anonymous said ...
How do you change your faces so quickly ? man of mystery ... I will never miss this characteristic English accent in the Universe .... 8-)
10 Jul 08 - 12:19 gmt
anonymous said ...
You don't chop your wrist off, you just cut down to the artery. Cutting one is probably enough anyway.
10 Jul 08 - 15:33 gmt
MsR said ...
No. Have you watched movies? One wrist would be too slow..you'd be there all day..it would look like a pathetic cry for help...and people would say things like, "He was a crap fund manager and he didn't even know how to kill himself properly." Embarrassing really.
10 Jul 08 - 15:39 gmt
vp said ...
on a roll today, fintag
10 Jul 08 - 15:54 gmt
anonymous said ...
Best to use the noose, cutting, and an overdose all at once for certainty.
10 Jul 08 - 16:07 gmt
Dan said ...
Get a gun. It's cheap (bullets are anyways), and there's no chance of you coming back to fuddle more pathetic ramblings.
10 Jul 08 - 16:18 gmt
anonymous said ...
But you could end up just seriously harming yourself, blowing off an ear or some teeth. Perhaps a good way for Fin to maintain his anonymity anyway...
10 Jul 08 - 17:11 gmt
GalwayBoy said ...
Do what the Romans did. Open both wrists up whilst laying in a hot bath and then just slip into warm oblivion.................. But lets face it...its never THAT bad surely?
10 Jul 08 - 18:23 gmt
David said ...
Fin,
Why so gloomy? Take a cue from your opening observations and leave the "good time" consumption cycle for a moment. A bit of quiet reflection and stream angling may do some good!
10 Jul 08 - 18:54 gmt
Moron said ...
whats everyone so sad about....life is good.....as the saying goes....if u r smart....u'll find the best opportunities in times of great crisis....so ...just be smart:)))
10 Jul 08 - 19:07 gmt
anonymous said ...
LEH having its wrists cut too?
10 Jul 08 - 19:46 gmt
anonymous said ...
Jump off a building!
That way, many people get to witness (and enjoy!) the spectacle - better still, call the TV stations, pretend you are going to do a daring "base jump", then jump to your death for the delight of millions.
11 Jul 08 - 08:39 gmt
anonymous said ...
You've just been in Japan - surely it has to be a bit of harakiri! no messing around there
11 Jul 08 - 08:58 gmt
MsR said ...
I think my good friend Fin is actually wondering how the little people are making do and how they don't slash their wrists. He has many nice things to look forward to.
11 Jul 08 - 09:50 gmt
Spotforex said ...
Have Lorena Bobbit hold the knife to do the cutting. Forget the wrists, you'll be back singing in the Choir.
11 Jul 08 - 10:07 gmt
time for bed said ...
I'm waiting to see who commits seppuku.
11 Jul 08 - 10:11 gmt
anonymous said ...
Going to a live volcano and jumping right into the middle must have a high degree of certain death one would think
11 Jul 08 - 10:36 gmt
contrarian said ...
Why so gloomy? Short concert tickets, long knives (unless you live in London - you may end up with free accomodation). Surely this is a buying opportunity? The markets rallied on day 3 of the Iraq invasion, when there was seriously no good news anywhere. All we need is another US (eless) president to do the honours.
facebook
free daily e-mail
feed
