30JUN08:
Oil to be USD200 by 30OCT08
USA Inflation to be 7.5% by 30OCT08 23APR08:
Next Rights Issue:
HBOS...yes
All & Lec ... 17APR08: Oil to be USD127 by 30SEP08
...16MAY08 losing my touch 27FEB08:
2 Banks go bust by 30JUN08
BS down, Lehman (a bit late I know) 20NOV07: Northern Crock to be sold for 15p
Nationalized 01NOV07: Oil to be USD103 EOM
...peaked too soon The Big Crash: 17OCT07
...well it's here 08OCT07:
SEC to fine Goldman for pricing issues
...still waiting 15JUN07: ML to buy-out BS
JPM got there first
As someone commented yesterday, we live in "troubled" times. Actually I think we are living in normal times. The troubled times were when I started writing this a couple of years ago and all around me at the debt-fest party were people partying as if it was 1999. The news is troubling though. Troubling in that so much is written by the traditional media about stories that we were discussing months ago.
This deja vu is troubling. Every morning (unless I am travelling like I am now) I read the news and scratch my head. Have I read this before, or am I psychic?
However, there is much to be pleased about. Being in Japan is like living on the moon. I can hardly understand what my interpreter says, cannot read the signs or order a drink. It is bliss. But my bliss will be coming to an end today as I fly off to the land of the depressed.
The United States of America. [Editor: This is really dull]
Both the Greenwich Global Hedge Fund Index ("GGHFI") and the Greenwich Composite Investable Index ("GI2") lost only a fraction of their gains in May, posting -0.42% and -0.38% on the month, respectively, well ahead of the S&P 500 Total Return (-8.43%), MSCI World Equity (-8.10%), and FTSE 100 (-7.06%) equity indices. Year-to-date, both the GGHFI and the GI2 remain flat, returning an identical -0.10%, while the S&P 500 Total Return, MSCI World Equity, and FTSE 100 Indices have produced returns of -11.92%, -11.76%, and -12.87%, respectively.
"The downside protection that characterizes hedge funds is clearly evident this year with long-only equity indices experiencing losses of 10% or more while hedge funds are essentially flat," notes Margaret Gilbert, Managing Director.
The GGHFI Directional Trading managers were the strongest performing group in June, posting a return of 2.02%. Market Neutral Funds lived up to their description during the month, gaining 0.32% despite turbulent circumstances in debt and equity markets. GGHFI Long-Short Equity funds lagged the global index during the month, losing -1.30%. The weakness in this sector was punctuated by an exceptional month for Short-selling managers who gained 9.39%, making them the second best performing sub-strategy group on the year. Finally, GGHFI Specialty Strategy managers exhibited the weakest returns among funds in June, returning -1.86% on average.
Fintag says This is rather troubling when hedge fund performance that is positive is celebrated. Hedge Fund performance should always be positive. Strangely in Japan where the expectations are so low, most investors are pleased to fall less than everyone else. Imagine that - being a failure but not as failed as those around you.
The Level 3 assets for which Goldman bears economic responsibility fell to $67.3bn, or 6% of total assets at fair value, from $82.3bn, or 11% of total assets at fair value, at the end of February.
Goldman chief financial officer David Viniar indicated last month when the company reported second-quarter results that its Level 3 assets—which some investors view as signs of future trouble—had declined.
Nevertheless, Goldman indicated that the value of illiquid loans and other cash assets continue to fall. It had $944m of unrealized losses on its Level 3 cash instruments as of the end of May 2008, a sign of "continued weakness in the credit markets," the filing said.
Fintag says I just don't know how they do it. All other banks have written off part or all of their level 3's. Goldman just tell us that they are disappearing. Where? Offshore? Or are their accountants being bribed? Or are these level 3's a figment of their imagination and they are just pretending to make them disappear?
Maybe Goldman are gods after all. Or maybe not ...
financial times says " Controversial 'mark to market' rule used to cushion losses "
Jaw-dropping as it might sound, Britain is facing the possibility - small, but growing ominously - of another Northern Rock-style debacle.
The implosion of Northern Rock last autumn triggered a spate of soul-searching and policy proposals from bankers, regulators and ministers. The first British bank run in a century and a half must never be allowed to happen again, it was said, as the country's international reputation for banking prudence and solidity suffered a pummelling. Yet a mere nine months on, Bradford & Bingley is now straying uncomfortably close to the same precipice.
B&B shares, which were trading at 400p a year ago, sank another 19 per cent yesterday to 34p. Some hedge funds and other speculators are betting that the bank will fail. Some analysts estimate that the bank is valueless.
Fintag says And I am being blamed for spreading rumors and short selling Bradford & Bungley.
Why is it I am not allowed to act on failure? Am I meant to sit around on cash and only buy things that may go up in price? This is laughable. Almost as laughable as Bloomberg. Take a look at this screenshot. Bloomberg would love to have nice pictures, videos and so on but I have to look at a courier type face and pop up window to look at a very old B&B picture. On the one hand I have an iPhone and the other this:
Here is a recent picture of a B&B office (please steal it from me like you do with most of my stories - take a look at Alliance & Leicester: they are next on the hit list). It was taken when the Bloomberg photographers were eating Turkey:
OUR RULERS FIND THE ULTIMATE SCAPEGOATS - YOU AND ME
Who broke the Broken Society? As politicians clamour to lay the blame for the gaping rends in our social fabric, one thing is becoming obvious. Behind their carapace of caring, their pious regrets and their hopes for a hopeless future, these architects of our society do not blame themselves. They blame us....
Fintag says Jan Moir should do a piece for the British Tourist Board. That would clear out all those slow paced tourists from Mayfair and I could walk around like in the old days without having to see a back pack or some poor student eating in the streets.
The charity founded by the hedge-fund activist, Christopher Hohn, has been approached by the Charity Commission about how it intends to narrow the £300m mismatch between its income and the donations it makes.
The accounts of the Children's Investment Fund Foundation (CIFF) for the year to August 2007 show the British charity had income of £324.5m, but approved charitable grants of only £10.2m. An analysis of cash flow shows it paid out £4.5m to good causes, but spent almost £320m on investments which helped swell the charity's net assets to more than £800m.
American regulators may have to continue offering emergency funding to investment banks into 2009, Ben Bernanke, chairman of the US Federal Reserve, said yesterday, with the credit crisis showing no sign of easing.
Mr Bernanke said the Fed was committed to ensuring financial stability and that it would do whatever it could to get on top of the credit crisis. "We are currently monitoring developments in financial markets closely and considering several options, including extending the duration of our facilities for primary dealers beyond year-end."
That would mean leading investment banks could continue to borrow from Fed facilities that offer hundreds of billions of dollars at reduced rates of interest if they find themselves constrained by liquidity problems. While Wall Street banks have made fewer calls on these facilities in recent weeks than when the funding was first offered, interbank interest rates remain significantly higher than US base rates, indicating that the credit squeeze is continuing.
Fintag says Benny has obviously felt unloved recently and so had to say something. Academics hate silence.
JAMIE DIMON SAYS DIRTY SHORT SELLERS SHOULD BE LOCKED UP
Reuters reports that JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon was in fine form on PBS Monday. Dimon said that US regulators should launch an investigation to ascertain whether short sellers of Bear Stearns stock spread false rumors to deliberately bring down the Wall Street firm.
Dimon said: 'Where there's smoke there's fire....This is even worse than insider trading. This is deliberate and malicious destruction of value and people's lives. (And) they shouldn't go to jail for a short period of time. If I was the SEC (US market regulator the Securities and Exchange Commission), I'd find out who made the money and investigate like they do when they come after us all the time - e-mails, phone records, you name it'.
Fintag says Mmmm.
JP Morgan is the second largest hedge fund (Goldman is first) in the world. So maybe he should take himself outside and beat himself with a large stick. What a tosser ....
Bigger may really be better for hedge funds at a time the $2 trillion (1 trillion pound) industry's smaller players face tough choices of either merging or being forced out of business.
In the first six months of 2008, more than a dozen smaller funds have already agreed to let larger players own a piece of them, and investors and managers expect that pace to quicken.
Fintag says What was I saying about deja vu?
Take a look at this video of Finbar Taggit (that's me by the way) who said the same thing 6 months ago ...
yahoo finance says " Finbar Taggit: International Man of Mystery "
HEDGE FUNDS LOST 0.75% IN FIRST HALF OF 2008, HFR SAYS
Hedge funds lost 0.68% in June, leaving them down 0.75% during the first half of 2008, according to early estimates released on Tuesday by industry performance tracker Hedge Fund Research. Convertible arbitrage managers and emerging markets hedge funds lost the most in June, while short selling, global macro and market neutral funds gained the most, HFR reported.
Fintag says Crack open the champagne ... we are just about libor minus libor ...now lets look at the long only mutual funds ...ooofff
Mark Lay, the Pittsburgh hedge fund manager convicted of fraud in a scandal that cost an Ohio workers' compensation fund $216 million, has been sentenced to a dozen years in prison.
After a marathon 10-hour, two-day sentencing hearing—U.S. District Judge David Dowd complained it was the longest he had ever been a part of—Lay was sent straight to prison. In addition to the jailtime, Dowd ordered the founder of MDL Capital Management to pay back all $216 million he was accused of losing in highly-levered hedge funds he invested in without authorization.
Fintag says Oh dear. Shame we had to end on a troubled story.
13 comments
anonymous said ...
You are troubled mate. Get out that massage oil ans untrouble yourself. What's happened to your face?
09 Jul 08 - 07:25 gmt
anonymous said ...
Ahhh - seeing that video has just made me realise who you are!
09 Jul 08 - 07:46 gmt
anonymous said ...
Yo Fin - I thought Mann group was the biggest hedge fund?
09 Jul 08 - 08:16 gmt
Finbar said ...
Man are brokers with a few fund of funds and yes they are quite big. But they are not a hedge fund
09 Jul 08 - 08:31 gmt
anonymous said ...
Man aren't brokers any more! And I think they would classify their direct funds as hedge funds, even if most of their business is FoHF
09 Jul 08 - 08:42 gmt
anonymous said ...
yes, you are right. this is back to normal. The investment banking led debt fest wasnt normal. But it will all work out.......
09 Jul 08 - 08:55 gmt
Fat Banker said ...
There is one great thing about the States. Peanut Butter M&M's !!!!! MMMMMMM......... Peanut Butter
09 Jul 08 - 09:10 gmt
WSJ said ...
inflows into new us hedge funds have grown to $19.bn in the first half of this year, from $14 bn in the same period last year, a study by absolute return revealed this is despite a 50% decline in the number of hedge fund launches during the period from 72 to 35.
09 Jul 08 - 09:29 gmt
spot said ...
good times continue: Beauty Company Introduces Shampoo for $1,000 per Bottle
09 Jul 08 - 10:22 gmt
MsR said ...
@Spot..no you are kidding me. Having trawled the designer shampoos Ms R washes her curls with Sainbury's coconut shampoo..only 99pence..it's all made from the same stuff..
Ms R has noticed that a lot of the super wealthy have bad hair and they are such an easy target...
09 Jul 08 - 10:48 gmt
anonymous said ...
Great WSJ is now spamming your board Fin!
09 Jul 08 - 13:56 gmt
Dan said ...
You could use a bottle of that $1000 shampoo yourself based on the vid, Fin.
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Both the Greenwich Global Hedge Fund Index ("GGHFI") and the Greenwich Composite Investable Index ("GI2") lost only a fraction of their gains in May, posting -0.42% and -0.38% on the month, respectively, well ahead of the S&P 500 Total Return (-8.43%), MSCI World Equity (-8.10%), and FTSE 100 (-7.06%) equity indices. Year-to-date, both the GGHFI and the GI2 remain flat, returning an identical -0.10%, while the S&P 500 Total Return, MSCI World Equity, and FTSE 100 Indices have produced returns of -11.92%, -11.76%, and -12.87%, respectively.
"The downside protection that characterizes hedge funds is clearly evident this year with long-only equity indices experiencing losses of 10% or more while hedge funds are essentially flat," notes Margaret Gilbert, Managing Director.
The GGHFI Directional Trading managers were the strongest performing group in June, posting a return of 2.02%. Market Neutral Funds lived up to their description during the month, gaining 0.32% despite turbulent circumstances in debt and equity markets. GGHFI Long-Short Equity funds lagged the global index during the month, losing -1.30%. The weakness in this sector was punctuated by an exceptional month for Short-selling managers who gained 9.39%, making them the second best performing sub-strategy group on the year. Finally, GGHFI Specialty Strategy managers exhibited the weakest returns among funds in June, returning -1.86% on average.