30JUN08:
Oil to be USD200 by 30OCT08
USA Inflation to be 7.5% by 30OCT08 23APR08:
Next Rights Issue:
HBOS...yes
All & Lec ... 17APR08: Oil to be USD127 by 30SEP08
...16MAY08 losing my touch 27FEB08:
2 Banks go bust by 30JUN08
BS down, Lehman (a bit late I know) 20NOV07: Northern Crock to be sold for 15p
Nationalized 01NOV07: Oil to be USD103 EOM
...peaked too soon The Big Crash: 17OCT07
...well it's here 08OCT07:
SEC to fine Goldman for pricing issues
...still waiting 15JUN07: ML to buy-out BS
JPM got there first
When we are feeling flush, the thought of paying USD10 for some air, salt and fat seems reasonable to satisfy those lunchtime hunger pains. The store is yellow and black, the food served by eastern european wenches and you line up for 15 minutes.
On a trip to ING on London Wall (guess where that it is), I took a few photographs of the lunchtime eateries that served the local financial institutions. I wonder how many of these will be here next year? As in the early 1990's, workers took to not eating, packed lunches or ate once every other day. That is of course if they were still employed.
The weekend's news was rough but most of us were caught up in watching a sporting event or two. Having tickets to center court yesterday, I witnessed Borg and McEnroe playing a match of epic proportions except they were called by other names. The man with the shaved arms and the wife beater won. The other man, he with the slight pot belly and one eye brow did well, but not well enough.
It has been a tough year for the Swiss.
This week I am speeding up climate change and spending many hours in the sky. Having not recovered from the last trip, I thought it made sense to really challenge my lungs to once more breathing in second hand flatulence. My destination is Japan and then New York. You would never believe how much the air fares have gone up. I did this trip 6 months ago, First Class, and if I paid the same again I would be lucky to even be in Economy [Editor: So you are flying at the back of the plane? Now I would like to see that ...].
Luckily I have never turned right onto a plane so will have to do the old "last person on the plane trick" where you put your luggage on board and wait until your name is called, sit in the loos for 15 minutes and slowly board the plane. Given the flight will be half empty as nobody can afford First Class, you turn left (the cabin crew will be in too much of a hurry to see your boarding card which you have suddenly lost) and you settle into an empty seat. When they come round and check the list and you are not on it after take off, you have fallen into a very deep sleep. Only works if you wear a suit and tie.
Enough of my tricks of the trade. What are the trades of the tricks?
Rules introduced by the UK's financial watchdog that force hedge funds to disclose short positions in companies holding rights issues have caused confusion among investors.
Nearly half the disclosures made by hedge funds since the Financial Services Authority announced the changes have contained errors as the funds struggle to get to grips with complex calculations.
According to analysis by the Financial Times, 20 of the 41 disclosures so far have missed filing deadlines, contained the wrong calculations or not been required.
Fintag says You bet it has been confusing. The good thing though is the FSA haven't a clue how to prove or disprove the numbers. So if I short a rights issue and want the world to know how I feel about it, I will fill in an FSA return. All the day traders and market makers will get to see my sentiment and push the price down.
I make money thanks to the FSA. Well having just paid my FSA fees I need some sort of pay back (I could hire a monkey instead).
telegraph says " Shareholders win as shorting costs escalate "
Strong returns at two of its flagship funds helped UK hedge fund Marshall Wace to a 57% jump in revenues to £217m (€274m) in the 12 months to the end of August last year, confirming its position among the most profitable hedge fund managers in Europe.
Fintag says I apologise if my Friday story about arson embarrassed anyone from MW. I can confirm that there is no connection to them whatsoever (even if the Principals know who I was talking about). [Editor: Almost as cryptic as the conspiracy surrounding the destruction of the third tower on 9/11]
BRADFORD & BINGLEY: MANY ADVISERS ARE RECOMMENDING THAT PRIVATE SHAREHOLDERS SELL
One million shareholders in Bradford & Bingley are being urged to ditch their shares after the beleaguered bank said it was raising £400m via a rights issue.
The warning comes as the credit crisis continues to batter the mortgage banks and follows similar rights issues from HBOS and Royal Bank of Scotland.
Almost 850,000 B&B shareholders are former building society customers who collected 250 "free" shares when it floated in 2000.
Then the shares were priced at 257p - giving members a demutualisation windfall worth £617.50. They are now worth just 50p.
Following Thursday's revelation that the bank had lost backing from a private equity firm, its share price nose-dived on Friday.
Fintag says I find it shocking that anyone is still long. I gave you ample warning (September 2007 to be precise).
So we go from this:
To this:
But nobody is lining up to withdraw their money because it is guaranteed by the UK government:
financial news says " Banks stand firm on B&B as FSA devises third rescue plan "
REFCO BANKER ELSNER, FLOTTL CONVICTED IN BAWAG CASE
Helmut Elsner, a banker for failed U.S. futures broker Refco Inc., and investor Wolfgang Flottl were convicted today of misuse of funds that led to 1.72 billion euros ($2.7 billion) of investment losses at Austria's Bawag PSK Bank.
Elsner, the 73-year-old former chief executive officer of Bawag, was sentenced to 9 1/2 years in prison by a court in Vienna. Flottl, 52, was ordered to spend 10 months in prison. They were among nine people convicted in the case on charges of improper use of funds, fraud and accounting violations.
Fintag says Refco, Bawag, Plusfunds, Lehmans and the Irish Mafia. The list is endless ...
One of the first-ever property hedge funds could be wound up after a year of torrid performance.
The board of the Rock Real Estate Securities Fund is in discussions with its investors over whether the fund should be wound up and cash rolled over into a new long-only vehicle.
The fund is managed by Rock Capital Group, headed by Roger Smee, and invests in UK and European property shares.
At the end of May, the Irish Stock Exchange-listed fund's net asset value dropped from ¤1 at its launch to 69 cents, implying that investors have lost almost one-third of their equity.
Hedge funds are able to take short positions in property shares, which means the fund profits if the price of a share falls. Because of this, a hedge fund should be able to outperform even if a market is falling.
Fintag says Bad timing - Property Derivatives is too new a concept. We all want to short property but apart from wide spread swaps with IPD, it is not really possible. Shorting REITS seems the best option - or supermarkets, banks with real estate exposure like the bank I visited on Friday, and so on.
financial news says " Banks face threat of real estate writedowns "
A-LISTERS CLAMOUR TO EMBRACE UMA THURMAN AND ARKI BUSSON
The paparazzi could hardly believe their luck. As the 100 guests made their way into the multimillion-pound London home of Arpad “Arki” Busson, the financier and philanthropist, to celebrate his engagement to the Hollywood A-lister Uma Thurman last week, almost everyone seemed worthy of a picture.
“It was a superglam occasion,” gushed one attendee. “Everyone was there - rock stars, supermodels, actresses, moguls and party girls. The guest list was, of course, pure social Viagra.”
The hostess, dressed simply in a long white gown, welcomed her guests with champagne and an Italian buffet. A couple of marquees had been erected in the garden for the party to spill out onto the lawn.
One of Goldman Sachs' top traders is leaving to join GLG Partners, London's second biggest hedge fund, amid a wave of defections from the City to Mayfair-based fund managers.
The arrival of Driss Ben-Brahim, a partner and head of the emerging markets trading business at Goldman, will give New York-listed GLG a boost as its current star trader, Greg Coffey, is due to leave in October.
Mr Ben-Brahim is one of the highest-profile hires by a hedge fund, as bank traders at his level typically choose to launch their own firms rather than join an existing fund. Indeed, former colleague Mark McGoldrick, Goldman's ex-head of distressed and special situations investing in Asia, is expected to raise several billion dollars for a new hedge fund he is preparing.
Fintag says Another character enters Curzon Street. This Frenchie is quite awesome and I have to hand it to GLG for nabbing DBB. The head hunter fees must have been enormous too. I assume he is taking the USD250m that Greg Coffey left on the table as his golden handshake ...
He will of course feel at home working in another tiny cramped office with no windows.
A substantial increase in the number of commercial properties standing open will result in a significant tax windfall for the Treasury thanks to new rules introduced this year, leading accountants are warning.
Owners of commercial property that is not occupied or let out have, from 1 April, been unable to claim relief on business rates once the building has stood empty for more than three months, or six months in the case of industrial premises.
When it announced the tax change last July, the Government estimated that it would increase business rate revenue by £950m a year. However, a 15 per cent increase in the number of empty buildings since last summer means the actual tax take is likely to £1.1bn this year according to NB Real Estate, the property consultancy.
Fintag says Assuming that most of these empty office blocks ever get completed. If they are not completed they pay nothing.
15 comments
anonymous said ...
I doubt that a headhunter was used to nab Ben-Brahim. I bet that more than a few GS Partners have their cash invested in GLG and wanted some stability.
07 Jul 08 - 10:14 gmt
anonymous said ...
Bit of a strange day blg today..........
07 Jul 08 - 11:24 gmt
MacroHedgeBoy said ...
GS were worried that GLG would go after their prop traders - given that a certain senior GLG person is ex GS, it's not that surprising.....
07 Jul 08 - 11:26 gmt
Village said ...
The 'Eat' at the bottom of my building is still a scrum to get a sandwhich. No signs of recession hit workers there yet.
07 Jul 08 - 12:54 gmt
PBateman said ...
Finb - Do you really bank at ING? They have more leverage and questionable assets than anyone this side of Dexia (just start by checking out their Structured credit portfolio).
Scary stuff backing up your deposits....
07 Jul 08 - 13:39 gmt
anonymous said ...
Finbar, are you Mike Platt?
07 Jul 08 - 14:05 gmt
All beef pattie, special sauce, lettuce, cheese, pickle and onions, all in a sesame seed bun. said ...
I've just been out to support my local city eating establishment and I fee smug. Five Big Macs please! Supporting the global economy through US companies, immigrant workers and the local economy, ,,,eer maybe.
07 Jul 08 - 15:45 gmt
anonymous said ...
Who is this Mike Platt? is he related to David?
07 Jul 08 - 15:51 gmt
Moron said ...
mike platt = bluecrest
07 Jul 08 - 16:05 gmt
curious said ...
Isn't Mike Platt ex-JPMorgan? does not sound like Fin
07 Jul 08 - 16:47 gmt
anonymous said ...
this is very hard to leave comments
07 Jul 08 - 17:16 gmt
MsR said ...
Re the cheap eateries I think there will be more competition: I note that Chop'd are absolutely heaving at lunchtime and are opening up more outlets. Hummus Brothers are doing well and I reckon if those falafel guys at Borough market opened outlets they'd do really well. It's the health/money equation. People don't mind paying a bit more if the food's good. I'd say those who give value for money will win over purely cheap.
07 Jul 08 - 17:16 gmt
Moron said ...
Ms R it seens u silenced everyone
07 Jul 08 - 19:57 gmt
MsR said ...
Sorry. Just figured you'd see the opportunity there. Anyone want to invest in Ms R's new food idea..
07 Jul 08 - 20:26 gmt
MacroHedgeBoy said ...
Ms.R: Please tell us your new food idea.
Apart from supporting Ronald and the global economy, I favour Borough Market. Alas, only on a Thurs or Fri.
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Rules introduced by the UK's financial watchdog that force hedge funds to disclose short positions in companies holding rights issues have caused confusion among investors.
Nearly half the disclosures made by hedge funds since the Financial Services Authority announced the changes have contained errors as the funds struggle to get to grips with complex calculations.
According to analysis by the Financial Times, 20 of the 41 disclosures so far have missed filing deadlines, contained the wrong calculations or not been required.