30JUN08:
Oil to be USD200 by 30OCT08
USA Inflation to be 7.5% by 30OCT08 23APR08:
Next Rights Issue:
HBOS...yes
All & Lec ... 17APR08: Oil to be USD127 by 30SEP08
...16MAY08 losing my touch 27FEB08:
2 Banks go bust by 30JUN08
BS down, Lehman (a bit late I know) 20NOV07: Northern Crock to be sold for 15p
Nationalized 01NOV07: Oil to be USD103 EOM
...peaked too soon The Big Crash: 17OCT07
...well it's here 08OCT07:
SEC to fine Goldman for pricing issues
...still waiting 15JUN07: ML to buy-out BS
JPM got there first
In a world where everything of value is falling in price, except the stuff we need to live like wheat and oil, creating a trading strategy becomes very hard. Even though the hedge funds, prop desks and day traders can quickly get in and out, it doesn't make it any easier than just holding on. The largest asset owners are like the Titantic; they can see the ice berg but are too slow and cumbersome to react. Maybe the ice berg will have melted before they crash into it. Sometimes locking up the house and living in a monastery for 12 years is the best approach. My application is already in.
My IT expert has failed to explain why my laptop doesn't work. I use Windows XP Pro and he told me that since Microsoft decided the other day to stop selling it, a built in piece of software has kicked off that makes it stop working properly so you have to upgrade to Vista. Nice.
We look at gloom and doom blogs, the food versus interest rate debate and the first sight of the latest hedge fund soap opera Curzie.
SOME COUNTRIES AT “A TIPPING POINT” BECAUSE OF DOUBLE IMPACT OF RISING FOOD AND OIL PRICES; IMF SAYS 75 DEVELOPING COUNTRIES AT RISK
Some countries were now at “a tipping point” because of the double impact of rising food and oil prices, IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn warned on Tuesday. The surge in global food and oil prices could “severely weaken” the economies of up to 75 developing countries, including Pakistan and Indonesia, the International Monetary Fund said in its first broad survey of the crisis.
The impact of surging oil and food prices is being felt globally but is most acute for import-dependent poor and middle-income countries confronted by balance of payments problems, higher inflation, and worsening poverty, a new IMF study warns.
Fintag says Very frightening. I can see, smell and hear protectionism coming back. Fortress Europe versus the rest of the world - problem is Europe hasn't any decent oil and needs Russia to join immediately.
This is one odd list: Really? Greg Mankiw -- Doom & Gloom? What the hell is that about?
Here's the list, the full commentary is at the site:
10 Best Gloom And Doom Sites
1. Daily Reckoning 2. Clusterf*** Nation 3. The Big Picture 4. DollarCollapse.Com 5. Angry Bear 6. Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis 7. Naked Capitalism 8. Peter Schiff 9. GREG MANKIW'S BLOG 10. The mess that greenspan made
I don't know whether to be proud or insulted . . .
Fintag says Thankfully I was excluded which means I must be a blog full of the joys of spring. Of course they missed the first and truly the only blog worthy of this award - financialarmegeddon.com
The computer screen on Scott Topping's desk at Southwest Airlines flickered with row after row of dates and numbers, but they had nothing to do with arrivals and departures.
They tracked the price of oil futures for the next several months, and they told a grim tale: No letup in sight from record prices for jet fuel.
''We're on a one-way street right now,'' Topping said as he hunched over the screen, shaking his head.
Fintag says Uh? I thought airlines did this already?
The fund manager has started the process of giving back capital to investors.
Peloton, founded by Ron Bellor and Geoff Grant in 2005, raised $1.6 billion in 2007 for its multi-strategy fund.
Peloton ran into trouble in February 2008 when it lost $2 billion in its asset backed securities fund in which the multi-strategy fund had invested $700 million.
Fintag says And now the litigation starts - Goldman Sachs suing itself.
UK house prices fell by 0.9% on average last month, according to the latest survey from the Nationwide.
The decline was less severe than the record 2.5% fall seen in May, but prices were now 6.3% lower than a year ago, the Nationwide said.
The average home now costs £172,415 and is £13,629 cheaper than at the top of the market in October last year.
Fintag says Tell me. How do these "indices" work? If there are no buyers and sellers how can they tell you that house prices have fallen by this amount? The sample size is too small. I would like to see the spreads. I would like to see what the methodology. Something doesn't smell right.
Moody's, the credit rating agency, on Tuesday said it was beginning disciplinary proceedings against some of its staff as it admitted it had incorrectly rated about $1bn of complex debt securities due to a computer error.
The credit ratings agency said Noel Kirnon, the London-based head of its global structured finance business, would leave at the end of the month.
Fintag says Took their time:
IS YOUR FIRM 'IN VOGUE' IN THIS CREDIT CRUNCHED WORLD ?
And here's our Mid-Credit Crunch 'In Vogue' Firm League Table
1. BlackRock
2. Barclays Global Investors
3. JPMorgan Asset Management
4. Renaissance Technologies Corp.
5. Macquarie
6. Nomura
7. Och-Ziff Capital Management Group
8. D. E. Shaw
9. BNP Paribas
10. Scotia Capital
11. SG Corporate & Investment Banking
12. State Street
13. The Financial Services Authority
14. KBC Group
15. Schroders
16. Panmure Gordon
17. RBC Capital Markets
18. Goldman Sachs Asset Management
19. Apollo Capital Partners
20. Barclays Capital
21. The Securities and Exchange Commission
22. Standard Bank Corporate & Investment Banking
23. Fortis Merchant Banking
24. Renaissance Capital
25. Ladenburg Thalman
26. Oppenheimer & Co
27. The London Stock Exchange
28. Morley Fund Management
29. Rabobank Wholesale Banking
30. Goldman Sachs
31. Santander Global Banking & Markets
32. Daiwa Securities SMBC
33. Gartmore
34. Lazard
35. Lloyds TSB Corporate Markets
36. Stephens Inc.
37. Axa Investment Management
38. Credit Suisse Private Bank
39. Citadel Investments
40. Deutsche Bank
41. Legg Mason
42. Insight Investments
43. Wedbush
44. ICAP
45. NM Rothschild
46. Man Investments
47. Barclays Wealth
48. GAM London Ltd
49. Wells Fargo Private Bank
50. Citi Private Bank
51. Societe Generale Asset Management
52. Fortress Investment Group
53. Blackstone
54. Cazenove
55. Houlihan Lokey
56. UBS Asset Management
57. Credit Suisse Investment Banking
58. Bank of Scotland Treasury
59. Kohlberg Kravis Roberts
60. JPMorgan Private Bank
61. Evercore Partners
62. Jefferies & Co
63. HSBC Asset Management
64. nabCapital
65. SEB Merchant Banking
66. Susquehanna International Group of Companies
67. Brown Brothers Harriman
68. Vanguard
69. Fidelity Investments
70. SAC Capital Advisors
71. Janus Capital
72. Threadneedle Investments
73. T Rowe Price
74. M&G Investment Management Limited
75. Collins Stewart
76. ING Wholesale Banking
77. Aberdeen Asset Management
78. Northern Trust
79. Standard Chartered Wholesale Banking
80. AIG Global Investment Management
81. UBS Wealth Management
82. The Federal Reserve
83. Bank of New York Mellon
84. F & C Asset Management
85. The Bank of England
86. Commerzbank Corporates & Markets
87. Bank of America Global Corporate & Investment Banking
88. Cantor Fitzgerald / BGC Partners
89. JPMorgan
90. HSBC Investment Bank
91. WestLB Corporates & Capital Markets
92. Morgan Stanley
93. Merrill Lynch
94. TD Ameritrade
95. TD Securities
96. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group
97. Dresdner Kleinwort
98. UBS Investment Bank
99. Unicredit Markets & Investment Banking
100. Moodys Investor Services
101. Charles Schwab
102. The New York Stock Exchange
103. Standard & Poor's
104. e*trade
105. CIBC World Markets
106. Fitch Ratings
107. Citi Institutional Clients Group
108. Fortis Asset Management
109. Morgan Stanley Asset Management
110. Credit Suisse Asset Management
111. Lehman Brothers
112. Calyon
113. Mizuho Securities
114. Natixis
115. Royal Bank of Scotland Global Markets & Banking
116. Wachovia Securities
Fintag says Is this the Kiss of Death list? Glad to see number 13 is the FSA.
In the meantime, here is the soap opera brief that is getting ITV all excited:
10 comments
anonymous said ...
You obviously need new IT "experts". Windows XP is not "sold" and won't get free support as before. But it is still being upgraded. The fact that M$ stopped selling it shouldn't mean your computer "knows"...
Are you sure you gave that guy a good bonus last year? Maybe that's the way of him getting back at you!
02 Jul 08 - 08:13 gmt
ITforHedgies said ...
anon is right- your IT guy either had a good laugh after that, or cluelessly walked away thinking "Man, I'm Good..."
If the latter, maybe you should send MsR in with her whips and chains and clean that department up a bit?
02 Jul 08 - 08:53 gmt
anonymous said ...
Can't leave comments
02 Jul 08 - 09:18 gmt
anonymous said ...
Moodys conveniently blaming it all on a computer error. How convenient. What about just doing some basic objective due dilligence instead of worrying about upsetting the banks and not getting paid their fee?
I hate IT geeks. They are just overpaid blaggers
02 Jul 08 - 10:04 gmt
anonymous said ...
Another 'I don't know what the write so I'll do a list' article....just what we need
02 Jul 08 - 11:42 gmt
Tomtzsrv said ...
Wonderfull great site airfare cheapest hotel niagara falls yuutb
02 Jul 08 - 15:58 gmt
Dan said ...
That list has repeats. Talk about slow day.
02 Jul 08 - 16:25 gmt
Dan said ...
Samuel Israel now in jail (Massachusetts).
02 Jul 08 - 16:27 gmt
Moron said ...
ho.ho.ho...the decline continues...keep shorting....how did people actually expect a rally here?:)))
02 Jul 08 - 16:48 gmt
anonymous said ...
findlay leaves threadneedle. Another case of the eurohedge curse; coffey (award), pelo-thingy (award), Findlay (he stood in for coffey at the keynote speaker at eurohedge paris)..... avoid those eurohedge guys like the plague..
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Some countries were now at “a tipping point” because of the double impact of rising food and oil prices, IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn warned on Tuesday. The surge in global food and oil prices could “severely weaken” the economies of up to 75 developing countries, including Pakistan and Indonesia, the International Monetary Fund said in its first broad survey of the crisis.
The impact of surging oil and food prices is being felt globally but is most acute for import-dependent poor and middle-income countries confronted by balance of payments problems, higher inflation, and worsening poverty, a new IMF study warns.