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28JAN09:
Q1-09 DOW: 8900
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CITI NATIONALIZED
OBAMA GETS SICK
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Mini Crash 21SEP09
Predicted correctly:
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Demise of Bear Stearns
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Demise of AIG
Subprime would cause problems
Date of 2007 crash
CRAs were to blame
G20 riots were a party
Northern Rock run
Northern Rock Nationalization
HBOS and RBS demise
UBS really was Useless


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THE FINTAG NEWSLETTER
@ Tue 24 June 2008 : GMT

FINTAG COMMENT

Pawn.

Pawn is back in fashion. Pawn shops are springing up everywhere, unless they were already there and I hadn't noticed them before. Here in Australia I have yet to find one. I am searching though. Despite the rise of ebay, it is so much easier to hand over Grandfather's hideous retirement clock for a few dollars and hope you can buy it back in a couple of months, than the embarrassment of posting it on ebay. The business model is as old as the hills and is my current long tip [Editor: No financial advice allowed]

Of course, apart from commodities, everyone is shorting everything. The current interest is who is shorting financial stocks and hey presto my old buddies GLG, as you would expect are short a British bank. The newspapers think this is a big deal. What alarms me is that so few are shorting which may explain why 207 returns were around libor.

Other non shocking news is that Goldman and Citi are pawning off their staff.

Other non shocking news is I have had carrot juice and white toast for breakfast.

GOLDMAN AND CITIGROUP TO CUT MORE JOBS

cityam

Fears of job cuts in the finance sector heightened on news that investment banks Goldman Sachs and Citigroup are to shed more jobs.

Goldman cut staff at its investment banking arm last week and is seen reducing staff levels by 10% in the division.

Citigroup is also expected to make cuts in its mergers and acquisitions division. The group is looking to reduce numbers by 6,500 in its investment banking arm and is already said to have made half of the lay-offs.
Fintag says
More resumes / cv's for the recruitment agents. Having carried out a recent headhunt cold call and spam count, my current rate is 5 calls a day and 4 spams. This time last year it was zero.

HEDGE FUND BETTING FORCES HBOS BELOW RIGHTS ISSUE PRICE

times

HBOS closed below its rights issue price for the first time yesterday, as some of the best-known hedge funds in London and New York revealed that they were betting the bank's stock will fall.

Shares in Britain's biggest mortgage lender closed down 4.25 per cent at 270.25p a share, compared with the 275p price of subscription to the bank's £4 billion rights issue. Shareholders will vote on the capital-raising on Thursday at the bank's extraordinary general meeting.

It is the third time that HBOS's share price has slipped below the subscription price, amid wild fluctuations since the rights issue was announced in April. Rules introduced by the Financial Services Authority (FSA) last Friday to stop those betting on stock price falls - short-sellers - from manipulating the market in the shares did little to prevent a further slide. HBOS is one of the most heavily shorted stocks in the FTSE 100, with 8.5 per cent of its market capitalisation on loan to short-sellers. According to Data Explorers, which monitors stock lending, a key element of the shorting process, this figure has risen from 4 per cent on June 5, and is well above the market average of 4.5 per cent of stock on loan.

Under the FSA's new rules, investors shorting more than 0.25 per cent of a company during a rights issue must declare their position. The regulator may bring in even stricter rules, such as a ban on lending the shares of companies carrying out rights issues.

Lansdowne Partners, the London hedge fund manager, said yesterday that it was shorting 0.58 per cent of HBOS's market capitalisation. Of this position, 0.49 per cent is held by Lansdowne's global financials fund.

Harbinger Capital Partners, the $25 billion (£12.7 billion) American hedge fund manager, is shorting 3.29 per cent of HBOS. Harbinger was founded by Philip Falcone, an activist investor who recently forced The New York Times to elect two new board members after criticising the newspaper company for being too slow to develop its internet offerings.

Mediator Capital Management, a London hedge fund manager, has a 0.3 per cent short position in HBOS. Mediator, along with GLG Partners, UBS O'Connor and Ferox Capital Management, was fined by the French financial regulator last June for using inside information to trade shares ahead of a bond issue by Vivendi, the French media company.
Fintag says
Slightly misleading. Hedge Funds maybe short but they haven't pushed the price down. The market has determined that HBOS is a highly leveraged property play with no diversification and is overvalued. Every day as residential house prices fall, HBOS's balance sheet falls in value too. It is not rocket science.

Of course if the UK had a proper rights issue system we wouldn't be reading these sorts of articles.

S&P INKS VALUATION DEAL

icfa

Standard & Poor's (S&P) and SuperDerivatives have agreed a deal to combine their valuation services for a spectrum of fixed income and OTC and exchange traded derivatives, which will now be available via a single channel.

The companies said the alliance will offer the broadest coverage of asset classes and geographies in the market, enabling clients to more efficeintly manage their investment and operational risk and regulatory compliance.

Lou Eccleston, executive managing director, Standard & Poor's, said the move was driven by market demand for "more global coverage and depth for their derivatives portfolio valuations".
Fintag says
Given mis-pricing is the new fad, this is a great strategic move by S&P.

130/30 STRATEGY TO WATCH IN 2009 SAYS S&P

hedge funds review

130/30 funds is one of the trends Standards & Poor's (S&P) will watch closely in 2009, according to Srikant Dash, global head of research and design at S& P Index and Portfolio Services (S&P).

Dash said he thought around a quarter of the share of traditional active funds will be eaten into by 130/30 funds in the near future. He was speaking at an S&P briefing in London.

“130/30 funds combine the best of indexing and asset management. You have beta exposure and the ability to express market preferences. Asset managers are moving into this area and eventually these funds will take a significant share from traditional active funds,” he said.
Fintag says
And just when I thought S&P were doing well, they come out with this garbage. 130/30 has failed. It is a marketing persons dream.

EX-CITI FIXED-INCOME CHIEFS PLAN HEDGE FUND

finalternatives

Two former Citigroup executives who oversaw some of the Wall Street giant's huge losses are starting a hedge fund.

Randy Barker and Geoff Coley, who headed fixed-income at Citi before their departures late last year, are in the early stages of planning the fund and have spoken with some potential investors, according to Reuters. The fund is expected to focus on distressed debt and other credit strategies.
Fintag says
This made me laugh.

IS SKANDIA BARKING UP THE WRONG TREE?

telegraph

The launch means areas such as timber and currency are no longer restricted to high net worth investors as you can invest as little as £50 a month, or a lump sum of £1,000.

Multi-managers have traditionally focused on delivering returns by selected fund managers in their respective areas and combining them in one fund. However, this fund will focus on the 10 best sectors with a single fund representing each area.

For example, the fund will invest in a timber fund that uses derivatives to get exposure to the largest listed timber companies involved in areas such as paper products and packaging.

Besides investing in esoteric asset classes, it will also give investors exposure to wellknown alternative assets such as gold and commodities that are more readily available.
Fintag says
No.

SHORT SELLERS WAGER £60M THAT B&B STOCK WILL FALL

guardian

Hedge funds have taken out bets worth £60m that shares in Bradford & Bingley will continue to fall. The positions are worth more than 15% of the market value of the troubled buy-to-let lender and were disclosed for the first time yesterday under a new regime introduced by the Financial Services Authority for companies conducting rights issues.
Fintag says
All this disclosure makes the situation worse (for those who are long).

UBS BANKER ADMITS SMUGGLING DIAMONDS TO US IN TOOTHPASTE

here is the city

43-year-old former UBS privte banker Bradley Birkenfeld appears to be singing like a canary, after agreeing to assist US authorities in their quest to ascertain whether UBS helped clients conceal assets in a bid to evade taxes.

Birkenfield, who has already pleaded guilty to involvement in a tax evasion schemes, declared in the written statement accompanying his plea that 'rather than risk losing the approximately $20bn of assets under management in the United States undeclared business', UBS 'assisted these wealthy US clients in concealing ownership of the assets held offshore'. Bloomberg reports that Birkenfeld admitted that he even agreed to buy diamonds for a wealthy US client using Swiss funds, and smuggled them into the US in a toothpaste tube!
Fintag says
So much for airport security.

FORTRESS SAID TO MULL ADDITIONAL $1 BILLION FOR DISTRESSED ASSETS

dealbook

Fortress Investment Group is considering adding another $1 billion to the war chest it has amassed to take advantage of the pain being felt on Wall Street, The New York Post reported.
Fintag says
Making money out of misery. At last, a story that vaguely links into my pawn shop theme.



FEWER HEDGE FUNDS RETURN OVER 10% IN 2007

hedge funds review

There was a significant decline in the number of hedge funds around the world reporting returns in excess of 10% from calendar year 2006 to 2007 according to a study by Greenwich Associates and Global Custodian.

Of hedge funds participating, the proportion reporting returns better than 10% dropped from 62% for calendar year 2006 to just 52% for 2007. Over the same period the share of funds reporting returns of 5%-10% increased to 23% from 21% and the proportion reporting below 5% returns rose to 15% from 12%. Within this group of 1,355 hedge funds, the proportion reporting negative returns jumped to 9% in calendar year 2007 from 5% in 2006.
Fintag says
Is that good or bad?


15 comments
anonymous said ...
Goldman informing its staff tomorrow

24 Jun 08 - 04:55 gmt
anonymous said ...
Do you think the Times journo was talking about MEDITOR Capital Management?

24 Jun 08 - 09:08 gmt
Top Cat said ...
I work quite near that pawnbrokers - opposte Bonhams I believe. Never ever seen anyone go in there until recently.

Ms R - I have given up Asia much to my chagrin, and I recommend that you strike the 'happy finish' term that I mentioned from your phrasebook lest you be a lewd woman, which I am sure is not befitting of you. I'm sure Finbar will explain it all to you when he's back.

24 Jun 08 - 12:09 gmt
anonymous said ...
Fintag, I am opening a property pawn shop!!!

24 Jun 08 - 12:29 gmt
cheerleader said ...
Fintag, I am opening a property pawn shop!!!

24 Jun 08 - 13:14 gmt
MsR said ...
TC: Thank you for your guidance on the Asian thing. I wouldn't want you to think I was that type of woman. I am sure when Fin emerges from the ether of jetlag he will have lots to tell: I of course do not ask. A lady never does.

24 Jun 08 - 13:59 gmt
Top Cat said ...
I never doubted you Miss R.

This opener could just have easily read

"Porn.

Porn is back in fashion. Porn shops are springing up everywhere, unless they were already there and I hadn't noticed them before. Here in Australia I have yet to find one. I am searching though...."

24 Jun 08 - 14:52 gmt
Moron said ...
top cat...u need a psychiatrist mate:)))

24 Jun 08 - 14:57 gmt
MsR said ...
Moron: Actually it is possible Fin might be talking about porn (and pawn) - and of course in a recession (are we allowed to call it that) people have more sex for various reasons.boredom, being stuck in the same house, not much money to spend so they may as well shag..stands to reason really

24 Jun 08 - 15:04 gmt
Moron said ...
But Ms R , I thought in a recession ppl are too stressed really to......u know what:)))

24 Jun 08 - 15:09 gmt
Ms R said ...
Moron: Well obviously let's say a person who's been laid off may initially feel like that and roll over and go to sleep. But those who are still clinging to life and can still afford a loaf of bread and bag of rice will figure they're here for a good time, not a long time and get back to life's basics instead of coveting blinging bags etc. Cue board games, chocolate, alcohol, gatherings with friends and what a trend analyst once called 'cocooning'. And when you get cosy...

24 Jun 08 - 15:21 gmt
MsR said ...
PS Moron: I note Ann Summers has just opened a flagship in Oxford St. I know Jacqueline Gold and she's pretty savvy about the whole sex toy/lingerie thing obviously

24 Jun 08 - 15:28 gmt
Moron said ...
Ms R ...u are a smart cookie:)

24 Jun 08 - 15:38 gmt
MsR said ...
Thank you Moron: I spent a lot of time in ad agencies learning a lot about the way consumers behave.

24 Jun 08 - 15:43 gmt
Moron said ...
great...then we have a perfect recession trade....short luxury watches......long birth control:)))

24 Jun 08 - 19:23 gmt

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