30JUN08:
Oil to be USD200 by 30OCT08
USA Inflation to be 7.5% by 30OCT08 23APR08:
Next Rights Issue:
HBOS...yes
All & Lec ... 17APR08: Oil to be USD127 by 30SEP08
...16MAY08 losing my touch 27FEB08:
2 Banks go bust by 30JUN08
BS down, Lehman (a bit late I know) 20NOV07: Northern Crock to be sold for 15p
Nationalized 01NOV07: Oil to be USD103 EOM
...peaked too soon The Big Crash: 17OCT07
...well it's here 08OCT07:
SEC to fine Goldman for pricing issues
...still waiting 15JUN07: ML to buy-out BS
JPM got there first
Luckily I don't predict the outcome of sport events for a living. Well done to Manchester United and Asia who support the team because they wear red. Stand up if you hate Man U ...
Oil reaches USD135 and now we are moving into a nasty 1970s scenario. However, oil is unlikely to be rationed because many companies and individuals won't be able to afford it. Time to short manufacturing, airlines and SUV's and go long kaftans, hemp seeds and tents.
Big boy hedge funds move into institutional territory.
The Fed goes into a post coital depression (the afterglow is long gone).
We look at useless AIG, Moody's, Cowboys, Gordon Brown and EPD.
OIL PRICE SURGES ABOVE $135 IN NEW YORK; INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY PREPARING SHARP DOWNWARD REVISION OF ITS OIL-SUPPLY FORECAST
Crude oil rose to another May record above $135 a barrel in New York on supply worries after US inventories unexpectedly dropped last week. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency, the energy adviser to 27 developed countries including Ireland, is reported to be preparing a sharp downward revision of its oil-supply forecast, a shift that reflects deepening pessimism over whether oil companies can keep abreast of booming demand.
Crude oil for July delivery rose as much as $1.87, or 1.4% to $135.04 a barrel in after-hours electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It later retreated to $134.27 a barrel, up $1.10 from Wednesday's close.
Oil for near-term delivery has surged 8.5% in the past week, while futures contracts for 2016 rose $20 to $142 a barrel.
Brent crude oil for July settlement rose $1.80, or 1.4% to a record $134.50 a barrel on London's ICE Futures Europe exchange.
US crude inventories fell 5.32 million barrels to 320.4 million barrels last week, the biggest fall in four months, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the US Energy Department said yesterday
Fintag says Thankfully they have found Iraq has the world's largest oil reserves. Maybe I can leave my electric car in the garage after all.
Federal Reserve officials acknowledge they are fighting a difficult, two-front war against slow economic growth and high inflation fed by soaring commodity prices.
In the minutes of the central bank's April 29-30 policy meeting, Fed officials provided a more downbeat view of the economy than in their latest forecast, in January. Their reduced expectations reflect the continuing housing downturn and credit crunch, as well as rising prices for food and energy.
Many said their monetary-policy tool, interest rates, "would be able to foster only a gradual return" of the economy to optimal levels, said the minutes, which were released Wednesday. ...
Fintag says The useless FED has lost its way. The drug dealer has run out of drugs.
Inalytics, the specialist manager evaluation company, has started a service analysing the skills of fund managers operating 130/30 funds.
By using quantitative forensic analysis and behavioural finance, Inalytics will identify 130/30 managers that add value by verifying that short positions generate returns.
The service will analyse every decision a manager takes when buying and selling in order to appraise skills. It will look at portfolio positions to see how, where and why alpha is generated or lost.
Fintag says So it analyses the behavior of some long only managers. And then what? Does it rank them?
Maurice "Hank" Greenberg, the former chief executive of American International Group, could face civil charges for his alleged role in overstating the insurance giant's financial strength.
Mr Greenberg was sent a "Wells notice" by the US Securities and Exchange Commission last week in connection with reinsurance transactions between AIG and Berkshire Hathaway's General Re in 2000. A Wells notice indicates that the SEC is considering civil charges and gives the recipient the chance to persuade the watchdog not to press charges.
District Judge Christopher Droney said last Friday that there was "sufficient evidence" to show that a financial conspiracy started with a phone call from Mr Greenberg.
Judge Droney oversaw a trial that resulted in convictions of former AIG and General Re executives for artificially boosting AIG's loss reserves to make the world's biggest insurer look financially stronger to investors.
Fintag says Hedge Fund managers used to be considered the cowboys of the financial markets. As we all know this is completely false. The real cowboys are Private Equity and Insurance.
Taking money on the probability that something might happen is not a real business.
Shares in US credit rating agency Moody's Investor Services have tumbled almost 16% after a newspaper report suggested it mislead investors.
The Financial Times reported that the New York firm wrongly assigned premium credit ratings to complex pools of debt, which were actually worth less.
Moody's said it was conducting a thorough review into the matter.
Ratings agencies, including Moody's, are already under scrutiny for their role in the world financial crisis.
Lawmakers and some investors have criticised the agencies for giving upbeat assessments of investments made up of bundles of debt that included US sub-prime mortgages, which are offered to homebuyers with inferior credit ratings.
Fintag says I know we did this yesterday, but it allows me to print another crap cartoon:
financial news says " Moody's reviews its rating of CPDOs "
The Big Apple remains the place to do business for the world's biggest hedge funds. Forty-five of the world's largest 100 hedge funds are based in New York City, according to Alpha magazine's annual rankings. Those funds manage $664.5 billion of the $1.35 trillion in assets under management in the top 100, or just under half the total. Including its suburbs—11 hedge funds based in southwestern Connecticut, plus one each in Long Island, New Jersey and Westchester County—the New York area boasts 59 of the top 100 funds, managing $812.5 billion, or 60% of the top 100's assets.
New York City—home to the world's largest hedge fund, JPMorgan Asset Management—has five of the top 10 hedge funds and 10 of the top 20. Including its suburbs, those numbers rise to seven of 10 and 13 of 20. Last year, the city was home to four of the top 10, with its suburbs accounting for another three.
London ranked second with 19 of the top 100 hedge funds, managing a total of $273.2 billion. All told, just 23 of the biggest hedge funds are based outside of the U.S., with one each in Bermuda, Paris, Tokyo and Zurich, Switzerland.
Fintag says I have to concede that New York has the best hedge funds, the most attractive women and the best night life. I am still not sure it has the best restaurants, the most attractive men or the funniest mayor but you cannot be good at everything.
One of the biggest problems in the hedge fund space is data mining. Aside from the crazy assumption that historical data and returns can extrapolate into the future, many users of commerically available databases somehow think that they have discovered or uncovered rare secrets from within a mystical hedge fund black box. This is hubris.
Take the latest example unleashed on the world by Pertrac. There are a vast litany of negative concerns related to hedge fund data including self-selection bias, sample selection bias, survivorship bias , backfill bias, and infrequent pricing bias.
Added to these, there are additional very serious classification issues that exist when you have two or more totally different databases with their own labels and you try to fit them together. For instance, where does one put an ABS fund in the HFR database, MSCI database and the Lipper TASS Hedge Fund Database? Is it a fixed income arbitrage fund, a multi-strategy fund or a relative value fund? No-one really knows. But where you put it will certainly impact the data results of risk and return across a number of strategies.
A former hedge fund manager was convicted Wednesday of leading an investment scheme that caused clients, ranging from former NFL players to his mother, to lose millions of dollars while he spent the money on jewelry, real estate and a $500,000 wedding.
Kirk Wright, 37, of Marietta faces up to what amounts to a life sentence after a federal jury found him guilty of mail fraud, securities fraud and money laundering.
The charges relate to the 2006 collapse of Wright's Atlanta-based hedge fund company, International Management Associates.
According to authorities, Wright and his company collected more than $150 million spread across thousands of client accounts since 1997 and used false statements and documents to mislead some of them to believe the value of those investments was increasing. Much of that money is missing.
Fintag says No. He wasn't a hedge fund manager. He was a crook. They are mutually exclusive.
Voters go to the polls in Crewe and Nantwich on Thursday in a closely watched by-election that could bring further misery for Gordon Brown.
Surveys suggest the resurgent Conservatives are poised to pull off a political coup by gaining their first seat in a by-election for 26 years.
Polling stations close at 10 p.m. in the Labour-held Cheshire constituency with the result expected in the early hours of Friday morning.
The constituency combines the affluent and picturesque market town of Nantwich and its grimmer, more working class neighbour Crewe, once dominated by the railway industry and still a major rail junction.
Losing the seat, held for 34 years by no-nonsense Labour traditionalist Gwyneth Dunwoody, would have little effect on Brown's 67-MP majority in the Commons.
But the psychological impact of defeat could be heavy, with Brown already on the back foot after a rout in local elections three weeks ago and a backbench revolt over the abolition of the 10p starting rate of tax.
Fintag says Bye bye Brown.
this is money says " Lenders slash house price forecast "
Are we in for another round of write-offs from Wall Street? That's what Susanne Craig argues in the Wall Street Journal's "Heard On The Street" column today. This time the losses are coming from a rebound in the mortgage markets. Banks that had shorted mortgages to hedge their long exposures are now finding their shorts have become "counter-productive."
The worst off, Craig writes, is Lehman Brothers, which is looking at write-downs of somewhere between $1.5 billion and $2 billion. That eats up almost half the $4 billion of capital Lehman was forced to raise when rumors spread that the bank might face a crisis. Morgan Stanley is a distant second, with less than half that amount expected.
Fintag says Oh dear. You have a rights issue and then use it to net off against some bad debts.
TCI SETS UP REBELLION AT JAPANESE NUCLEAR GROUP'S AGM
The British hedge fund The Children's Investment Fund (TCI) has intensified its battle with the Japanese nuclear energy group Electric Power Development, saying it intends to gather shareholder support to push through a series of rebel proposals at next month's annual general meeting.
TCI said yesterday it was soliciting proxies from fellow shareholders in the group, known locally as J-Power, to support seven items it had proposed for the agenda of the AGM held at the end of June.
The activist investor, run by Christopher Hohn, said in a statement released in Tokyo: "Management's lack of respect for genuine shareholders has left TCI with no alternative but to solicit proxies from shareholders."
This is the latest step in an increasingly fractious relationship between J-Power and its largest shareholder. The hedge fund has pushed for a series of changes at the group. The dispute has spilt over into the political arena, as TCI called on the UK Government to impose trade sanctions on Japan, which had blocked it from increasing its stake in the nuclear group. Five of the seven AGM proposals were made on 17 April and "aimed at improving the broken corporate governance of the company", TCI said. It has made a further two yesterday.
Fintag says As the Japanese like to say, Children should be seen and not heard. Unless it is a brattish binge drinking brit kid of course.
EX-MERRILL EXEC.'S HEDGE FUND HIT WITH NEW SETBACKS
The former Merrill Lynch investment banking co-chief has been forced to delay the debut of his hedge fund after another major investment bank backed out on plans to seed it. New York-based Diamond Lake Investment Group had expected to launch last month with as much as $1 billion.
But the New York Post reports that Credit Suisse has not made good on its plans to invest—Diamond Lake may never see a dime from the bank—and that a Korean bank that had committed to invest up to $200 million has not come up with most of that money. Last year, Merrill cancelled plans to seed its alumnus' fund, as well, forcing Kim to downgrade his expected launch size from $3 billion to between $650 million and $1 billion.
Fintag says It is not quite as easy as one expects when you launch a hedge fund. Just because you have a big swinger doesn't mean you can use it outside an incompetent bank. Sometimes it just goes back inside and won't come out to play. [Editor: uh?]
It is a big boys game ...
finalternatives says " Biggest Hedge Funds Grow By 35%, JPMorgan Keeps Top Spot "
Don't tell me he wants up to set up a Hedge Fund too?
financial news says " Bear's Mayer turns down $27m from JP Morgan "
SEC WINS U.K. ORDER FREEZING HEDGE PRINCIPAL'S FUNDS
Glenn Manterfield, a hedge fund principal, had his assets frozen by a London court at the request of U.S. securities regulators investigating an alleged fraud by the fund.
The High Court in London granted an order freezing about $1 million of assets held by Manterfield, of Sheffield, England, the Securities and Exchange Commission said in a statement published on its Web site May 19. The order was granted May 16, the release said.
The SEC is suing Manterfield and Lydia Capital LLC, a Boston-based hedge fund that lists Manterfield as a principal, in federal court in Boston. The commission claims Lydia defrauded more than 60 customers who had invested more than $34 million in one of the company's funds, the release said.
Fintag says Interesting development. The SEC are a law enforcement agency? Or are they regulators of the financial services industry? It is all so confusing.
The largest hedge funds in the world account for 75% of hedge fund industry assets, compared with 69% the previous year, continuing the trend of larger funds eclipsing smaller players.
The largest 100 hedge funds have $1.3 trillion (€856.4bn) in assets under management, a 35% increase over 2007, according to Alpha magazine's Hedge Fund 100 report.
JP Morgan Asset Management topped the list with $44.7bn in assets, boosted by Highbridge Capital. The 10 largest hedge funds had assets of $324bn, a 29% increase over last year.
There were some dramatic shifts in the rankings over the previous year.
Paulson & Co rocketed to number eight in the list from 69 last year, with nearly $29bn in assets under management. The fund was boosted by its positions against the sub-prime mortgage market.
Harbert Management, a hedge fund with investments across real estate, private equity, convertible arbitrage and distressed debt and special situations. Its assets have increased from $1.5bn in 2002 to nearly $23bn as of March 1, according to its Web site. Its ranking rose sharply to 16 from 94 last year.
Fintag says As I said, it is a big boys game (google: finbar taggit man of mystery yahoo finance).
alpha magazine says " Alpha Magazine's Hedge Fund 100 Rankings Show a Flight to Hedge Funds in the Face of Turbulent Markets "
11 comments
ozgerbobble said ...
Perhaps Erin Callan at Lehman shares your love of phrenology(yesterday's picture). See if she'll let you feel her bumps in the interests of research
22 May 08 - 08:47 gmt
Yahoo said ...
Re: the Yahoo Finance Interview......rough haircut Finbar! Unless the barnet was attached to the Marx Bros. mask?
22 May 08 - 11:59 gmt
anonymous said ...
hedge fund manager and crook mutually exclusive? last i heard philippe jabre was running $3bn
22 May 08 - 12:20 gmt
anonymous said ...
Ah, finally figured out who you are!!
22 May 08 - 12:47 gmt
anonymous said ...
Well come on then - share
22 May 08 - 14:56 gmt
ozgerbobble said ...
Manny Roman...................
22 May 08 - 16:40 gmt
Dan said ...
Hoping to be rooted out so you no longer have to do this?
22 May 08 - 16:55 gmt
Finbar said ...
its an imposter. A paid actor. I am a woman for starters ...
22 May 08 - 18:30 gmt
Sparrows said ...
Is there really a Bird Game???
Love and kisses.
22 May 08 - 20:25 gmt
hedgehog said ...
Taking money on the probability that something might happen is not a real business? - it sure is real money, even when it happens
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Crude oil rose to another May record above $135 a barrel in New York on supply worries after US inventories unexpectedly dropped last week. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency, the energy adviser to 27 developed countries including Ireland, is reported to be preparing a sharp downward revision of its oil-supply forecast, a shift that reflects deepening pessimism over whether oil companies can keep abreast of booming demand.
Crude oil for July delivery rose as much as $1.87, or 1.4% to $135.04 a barrel in after-hours electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It later retreated to $134.27 a barrel, up $1.10 from Wednesday's close.
Oil for near-term delivery has surged 8.5% in the past week, while futures contracts for 2016 rose $20 to $142 a barrel.
Brent crude oil for July settlement rose $1.80, or 1.4% to a record $134.50 a barrel on London's ICE Futures Europe exchange.
US crude inventories fell 5.32 million barrels to 320.4 million barrels last week, the biggest fall in four months, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the US Energy Department said yesterday