30JUN08:
Oil to be USD200 by 30OCT08
USA Inflation to be 7.5% by 30OCT08 23APR08:
Next Rights Issue:
HBOS...yes
All & Lec ... 17APR08: Oil to be USD127 by 30SEP08
...16MAY08 losing my touch 27FEB08:
2 Banks go bust by 30JUN08
BS down, whose next? ... 20NOV07: Northern Crock to be sold for 15p
Nationalized 01NOV07: Oil to be USD103 EOM
...peaked too soon The Big Crash: 17OCT07
...well it's here 08OCT07:
SEC to fine Goldman for pricing issues
...still waiting 15JUN07: ML to buy-out BS
JPM got there first
The British Soap Awards were on last night but GLG-enders wasn't in the running. Perhaps it is because as a soap it is too unrealistic? I mean when would a hedge fund let go its only asset and pretend everything was all ok and its stock price goes up?
Most Hedgies and Incompetent Bankers with families send their children to expensive private schools. Rumors are that the bursars are taking many more calls than usual from redundant daddys and mummys who can no longer afford to pay the USD60,000 school fees a year. Prepare for the closure of many small private schools (just like in the early 1990's) and an influx of well educated kids going to state schools.
And another thing. Has this even happened to you?
After the traumas of the Chelsea shooting, last night I went to a well known Michelin starred eatery owned by a foul mouth ex football player who has transfixed the USA with his cooking skills.
FT: Could I have the steak please? Waiter: How would you like that sir? FT: Rare Waiter: I need to fetch the manager FT: Uh? Manager: Sir. I am terribly sorry but we cannot serve you a rare steak. FT: Really? Why is that? Manager: It is for Health and Safety reasons.
So another evening was ruined.
I need to apologise to the thousands of you out of work. It is not a pleasant place to be and we have all been there sometime. I may have given the impression we have lots of jobs available. I think some of you misunderstand. I can give you any job you wish, will forward references on and help in your future careers. What I cannot do is provide real jobs that pay. Sorry.
My shoes are over polished as it is.
Today we look at depressed consumers, optimistic academics and useless hedge funds.
Consumers are less confident than at any time since the Nationwide began collecting data in May 2004, figures from the building society showed today.
Worries about the state of the economy caused the biggest ever monthly drop in the sentiment index, down to 70 in April from 77 the month before, 22% lower than a year ago.
"The cut in interest rates in April did little to lift consumer spirits," said Nationwide's chief economist Fionnuala Earley. "Food and fuel prices remain high and with house prices no longer rising it is unlikely that consumer confidence will pick up very quickly."
The survey revealed the biggest shift was in consumer sentiment around the current economic situation, with just 17% of the population thinking the present situation is good. That's less than half the corresponding figure of 36% recorded prior to the credit crunch and Northern Rock debacle last autumn.
Fintag says A dramatic headline for a study that has been going for 3 years!
GLG EXPECTS £4BN TO FOLLOW GREG COFFEY OUT OF THE DOOR
GLG Partners, the London-based hedge fund reeling from the departure of Greg Coffey, is expecting to lose more than $4 billion (£2.05 billion) in investment assets as disillusioned investors follow the star Australian fund manager out of the door.
Noam Gottesman, GLG's chairman and chief executive, told shareholders yesterday that the hedge fund had suffered $1.7 billion of investor redemptions since late April, when Mr Coffey left the firm to set up on his own.
Mr Coffey, an emerging markets specialist thought to have collected $300 million in performance fees last year, managed about $7 billion of the $24.6 billion that GLG has under management. Mr Coffey, who generated spectacular returns for GLG's fund investors, spurned a cash-and-shares payout worth a further $250 million to go it alone. Mr Gottesman admitted that as little as $2 billion of Mr Coffey's former assets could remain after October, when he formally leaves after an agreed handover period.
“Clearly, he managed $6.3 billion as at the end of April and I would expect the bulk to remain until October,” he said. “Once Greg goes, I would expect to retain at the very least $2 billion of that money, and hopefully more.”
Fintag says
Manny Roman (MR): Tosser Greg Coffey (GC) : Grey head MR: Girley hair GC: Dull brain MR: Small dick GC: No dick MR: Fat arse GC: Loser MR: Loser too GC: Nur nur nee nur nur MR: I am richer than you GC: Drunkard ...and so on
Listed below are our best estimates of where financial markets job cuts at the main firms have come / are likely to come because of the current market difficulties.
Citi - 7,900
Merrill Lynch - 5,600
Lehman Brothers - 4,990 (more job losses are likely in the next week or so)
UBS - 4,600
Morgan Stanley - 4,440
Bank of America - 3,650
HSBC - 1,800
Bear Stearns - 1,550 (between 8,500 and 10,000 of the firm's 14,000 current staff are thought likely to go following the merger with JPMorgan).
WestLB - 1,530
Goldman Sachs - 1,500
Credit Suisse - 1,350
Wachovia - 1,100
Royal Bank of Canada - 510
Royal Bank of Scotland - 500
Fortis - 490 ( most of these are in asset management and came as a result of the ABN AMRO deal)
Deutsche Bank - 470
Dresdner Kleinwort - 450
ABN AMRO - 300
Mizuho Financial Group - 300
Moody's Investor Services - 180
Fidelity International - 170
Thomas Weisel Partners - 160
Jefferies & Co - 150
BNP Paribas - 145
Fitch Ratings - 130
JPMorgan - 120 (speculation is mounting that up to 1,500 job cuts are likely due to the impending acquisition of Bear Stearns)
Henderson Global Investors - 45
Fintag says I assume this is UK only. No wonder house prices are falling and kids are being removed from private schools.
independent says " Savills warns sales of expensive homes are down by 40% in London this year "
money central says " Credit crisis over? Not likely "
The unexpected resignation of a star hedge fund manager, poor performance and the forced restatement of costs overshadowed GLG Partners' first-quarter results.
Noam Gottesman, chairman and chief executive, said the group that listed in New York in November was "facing cross-currents near-term".
Performance of the group's 40-plus funds had been "disappointing" overall since the beginning of the year, declining 7 per cent on average. "Some funds are below their high-water marks," said Mr Gottesman, although the group "was still performance-fee positive".
Assets under management were unchanged from December to March at $24.6bn (£12.6bn). Net inflows, including from new US clients, touched $700m and the group's assets have risen 53 per cent since the first quarter of 2007.
However, GLG was braced for big outflows from its $7bn emerging market funds following the surprise resignation last month of manager Greg Coffey, one of its biggest star managers. GLG has already had redemption requests of $1.7bn from emerging market funds, which would be withdrawn over the next few months
Fintag says I haven't checked this but aren't some of GLG's funds down quite sharply for April? With the drawdowns and redemptions, staff defections and low morale, it is good to see the rational stock markets pushing its stock price up. Correct me in I am wrong (my pertrac isn't working).
This is quite amusing (tip to big picture) mcsweeneys says " WORD PROBLEMS FOR FUTURE HEDGE - FUND MANAGERS."
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Thursday that regulators must move ahead on ways to prevent a future financial crisis from occurring even as they battle one that threatens to plunge the country into recession.
“We do not have the luxury of waiting for markets to stabilize before we think about the future,” Bernanke said in a speech in Richmond.
Last month Bernanke, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and other top economic policymakers called for stricter regulation of mortgage lenders as part of a broad effort to prevent a repeat of the credit and financial problems that have damaged the economy.
Fintag says Bernanke isn't a happy man. Perhaps if he shaved his beard off and wore a nice open collar pink shirt he would lighten up?
Investors anticipate a record-beating net inflow of $200bn (€130m) into hedge funds in 2008 despite the fact that fundraising in the first three months was at one of its lowest levels for years.
Investors with $4.5 trillion of assets told Deutsche Bank's capital raising group, on average, that they expected another $200bn of assets to flow into hedge funds this year.
This would beat last year's record of $195bn and come well ahead of the $126bn raised in 2006 and $99bn raised in 2002, the previous record years, according to US data provider Hedge Fund Research.
Deutsche Bank said investors were aware that the net inflow into hedge funds in the first three months of this year, at $16.5bn, was the lowest net inflow of any first three months in four years.
Deutsche Bank also said investors' optimism about the hedge fund market was "at odds with their generally bearish economic outlook."...
Fintag says More expectations ...
Is this a net raising figuring? Are these really commitments? Is this a real number?
Boris Ehsani, head of one of Merrill Lynch & Co.'s most profitable trading groups, is leaving the U.S. securities firm after it canceled a plan to spin off his unit as an independent hedge fund, people familiar with the matter said.
Ehsani, a 23-year Merrill veteran, said he now plans to start his own hedge fund with backing from other investors. His unit, the Principal Credit Group, has a staff of more than 30 people, oversees $2.8 billion and produced $461 million of total revenue last year, according to sales materials prepared for the planned fund in March.
Fintag says Toys out of pram. I will watch with interest. Just because he is a veteran doesn't mean anything, Investors today follow balance sheets - although with the shocking state Merrills balance sheet is in I guess following Ehsani makes no difference.
Since C's new slogan is “Citi Never Sleeps,” will the firm accordingly be passing out amphetamines to the staff, in case any two-bit reporters plan on doing a little late night undercover work to make sure everyone's taking this thing seriously? And if so, will the drugs be distributed using the same revenue boosting plan the firm's got going with its unused box seats, e.g. free for higher-ups, market price for peons? Interested parties would like to know.
Fintag says
SUB-PRIME FIASCO CLAIMS MOODY'S INVESTORS PRESIDENT
Brian Clarkson, the driving force behind Moody's Investors Service's push into lucrative but riskier businesses, is stepping down as president and chief operating officer of the oldest bond-rating firm, the company announced Wednesday.
Clarkson's exit, effective by July, marks the highest-profile casualty to date in the controversy over the complicity of credit-rating firms in the sub-prime meltdown.
Clarkson, 52 years old, once ran the group overseeing mortgages and other structured-finance products, and his stature rose as Moody's became a major player in analyzing complex securities based on home mortgages.
Last year, he was promoted to president and chief operating officer of the firm, the largest unit of Moody's. But his standing was tarnished when many of the products he oversaw suffered heavy losses.
Fintag says He took his time. The man responsible for thousands of homeless incompetent bankers.
6 comments
Dan said ...
Homeless incompetent bankers is not an issue. They should be flogged then jailed for criminal activities.
08 May 08 - 08:13 gmt
JAA said ...
hahaha Vikram what a story...SEC ruling on banks disclosure for capital/liquidity levels should keep him busy for a while...
08 May 08 - 08:17 gmt
ozgerbobble said ...
Good old financial journos. Can't be bothered to read the whole document so just misquote to grab a headline.
The DB report actually said that respondents to their 2008 survey (mostly fund of hedge funds/family offices etc) "suggested a median industry inflow of $200bn in 2008, demonstrating an optimism about the hedge fund market that is at odds with their generally bearish economic outlook"
08 May 08 - 09:12 gmt
anonymous said ...
Gordon ramsey won't serve up rare steaks ... what is the world coming too
08 May 08 - 09:26 gmt
ozgerbobble said ...
In his heyday Macro Pierre White would have thrown you out of his restaurant for asking for a steak done in any other way.
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Consumers are less confident than at any time since the Nationwide began collecting data in May 2004, figures from the building society showed today.
Worries about the state of the economy caused the biggest ever monthly drop in the sentiment index, down to 70 in April from 77 the month before, 22% lower than a year ago.
"The cut in interest rates in April did little to lift consumer spirits," said Nationwide's chief economist Fionnuala Earley. "Food and fuel prices remain high and with house prices no longer rising it is unlikely that consumer confidence will pick up very quickly."
The survey revealed the biggest shift was in consumer sentiment around the current economic situation, with just 17% of the population thinking the present situation is good. That's less than half the corresponding figure of 36% recorded prior to the credit crunch and Northern Rock debacle last autumn.