28JAN09:
Q1-09 DOW: 8900
Q2-09 DOW: 7250
Q3-09 DOW: 5810
Q4-09 DOW: 3960
CITI NATIONALIZED
OBAMA GETS SICK 30SEP08:
31DEC08 INDICES:
FTSE100:3550
DOW30:7550
# HEDGE FUNDS:4425 30JUN08: Oil to be USD200 by 30OCT08 USA Inflation to be 7.5% by 30OCT08
...oops 23APR08:
Next Rights Issue:
HBOS...yes
All & Lec ...
...1 Nil. 17APR08: Oil to be USD127 by 30SEP08
...16MAY08 losing my touch 27FEB08:
2 Banks go bust by 30JUN08
BS down, Lehman (a bit late I know) 20NOV07: Northern Crock to be sold for 15p
Nationalized 01NOV07: Oil to be USD103 EOM
...peaked too soon 08OCT07:
SEC to fine Goldman for pricing issues
...still waiting 15JUN07: ML to buy-out BS
JPM got there first 06JUN07: The Big Crash: 17OCT07
...well it's here
My Parisian Eurohedge 2008 invite arrived yesterday and I was pleased to see the lead speakers include a man who blew up a large hedge fund - Peloton - and another who fled the UK after being found out to be a crook - Jabre. I won't be going, obviously.
It is a tale of 3 men. One is a prematurely ejaculating market appeaser. The other is a snail like man who resembles Benny Hill and used to live next door to the 1929 obsessive. The third is a Frenchman who seems to know what he is doing. So while the USA burns, the UK smoulders, Europe moves on in an orderly fashion.
England lose to France in the football (didn't Becks look sweet and what a fascinating interview from the manager who speaks fluent Italian).
French president Sarkozy swans around London showing off his Eric Clapton reject wife [Editor: And many others too].
Non French news:
We look at a chart that freaks the jeebies out of me.
Hedge Funds take a tip from Spitzer.
Accountants are blamed for the credit crisis.
Hedge Fund closures increase.
ECB PRESIDENT TRICHET SAYS REDUCING INTEREST RATES WOULD RESULT IN EUROZONE CITIZENS SUBSIDISING BANKS THROUGH HIGHER INFLATION; SPAIN HEADS FOR PROPERTY HARD LANDING
ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet reaffirmed the European Central Bank's commitment to Eurozone price stability and fighting inflation in an interview with a German television network, broadcast on Wednesday. The ECB President had said earlier to the European Parliament: "If we had reduced rates for a reason other than maintaining price stability, we would in effect have been asking our fellow citizens to subsidise the banks via their suffering from inflation."
"In this phase, the European Central Bank is trying, more than anything else, to prevent the inflationary expectations," Trichet said in English, according to a report on the ARD TV web site.
"We are there to guarantee medium-term price stability," Trichet said.
Fintag says This man knows what he is doing. A safe pair of hands and he is French too. Shocking.
A sweeping five-month investigation into the collapse of one of the nation's largest subprime lenders points a finger at a possible new culprit in the mortgage mess: the accountants.
New Century Financial, whose failure just a year ago came at the start of the credit crisis, engaged in “significant improper and imprudent practices” that were condoned and enabled by auditors at the accounting firm KPMG, according to an independent report commissioned by the Justice Department.
In its scope and detail, the 580-page report is the most comprehensive document yet made public about the failings of a mortgage business. Some of its accusations echo charges that surfaced about the accounting firm Arthur Andersen after the collapse of Enron in 2001.
E-mail messages uncovered in the investigation showed that some KPMG auditors raised red flags about the accounting practices at New Century, but that the KPMG partners overseeing the audits rejected those concerns because they feared losing a client.
Fintag says The blame game. So now its the accountants turn. Let me cut out the expense. We can blame the current US depression on the reckless lending by US banks. It is simple as that.
The era of credit controls was ended in the 1960's and now it is payback time. Lending money to people who don't / won't / cannot pay it back is reckless and we all suffer. With low interest rates, debt is seen as cheap so more attractive. Guess what, debt has to be paid back whether the interest is 0% or 100%.
I blame the human pysche and the I want it now culture. In fact I blame YouTube.
ABERDEEN ASSET MANAGEMENT CEO WELCOMES NEW HEDGE FUND THAT HAS BUILT MAJOR STAKE
Aberdeen Asset Management PLC (LSE: ADNP.L - news) chief executive officer Martin Gilbert has offered a hearty welcome to Toscafund, after the UK-based hedge fund took a near 10 pct stake in his company last week. Martin Hughes' Toscafund said that 'indiscriminate' selling in the stock market prompted it to buy the 9.82 pct stake in Aberdeen, which makes it the group's second largest shareholder behind fellow hedge fund Lansdowne Partners, which owns just over 11 pct.
Gilbert though was enthusiastic about having two hedge funds in control of more than a fifth of his company. He told Thomson Investment Management News: 'We welcome Toscafund as a major shareholder. We are very happy to have them on board.'
Fintag says Split cap masters saved by a Hedge Fund. Aberdeen are like Lehman - they never seem to die despite being so useless.
The Governor of the Bank of England yesterday pledged to continue supporting liquidity-starved banks, but stopped short of promising to buy worthless mortgage-backed securities.
Mervyn King told the Treasury Select Committee that following last week's summit meeting with leading banks, he was in continuing talks with the sector over finding a "longer-term solution" to the credit crisis.
Mr King promised that the central bank would "provide the liquidity assistance that the system needs in order to restore confidence". However, while the Governor confirmed that in December, January and March the Bank had broadened the range of collateral it accepted on repurchase agreements to include certain residential mortgage-backed securities, he denied any plans to begin buying unwanted mortgage-backed securities.
Fintag says Oh dear. His job to is protect us from inflation not bail out greedy property investors.
Janszen Interview with Australian Economist Dr. Steven Keen: Part I
* What is debt deflation? * Why it is occurring now? * What impact on the financial system, economy, households and businesses?
Dr. Keen is an economist for the University of West Sydney. He specializes in long term macro-economic trends with expertise in Debt Deflation, a rare economic and monetary process now taking place in the US, UK, Australia and other countries.
Before we get into the interview, we start with the latest post from Dr. Keen's debtdeflation.com blog.
Fintag says Please read. This chart says it all:
HEDGE FUND CLOSURES SLOW IN '07, ACCELERATE IN '08
Last year may have seemed like a rough one for hedge funds, but by at least one metric, things weren't so bad.
At least 49 U.S. hedge funds, with a total of $18.6 billion in assets, closed their doors in 2007, according to Absolute Return magazine. But that's a sharp decline from 2006, when 83 hedge funds with more than $35 billion went belly-up. Even excluding the catastrophic collapse of Amaranth Advisors, which managed some $9.1 billion at the time of its natural gas trading debacle, last year was quite a relief from its immediate predecessor.
This year has not started so well, with hedge funds managing $6.66 billion going out of business, including Drake Management, Peloton Partners and Sailfish Capital Partners. If that rate continues, more than $27 billion worth of hedge funds will close their door this year, exceeding 2006's ex-Amaranth total.
Fund managers expect to be able to trade a range of assets on a single electronic trading platform within the next two years.
Factors driving multi-asset trading
That was the surprising finding of a survey of buy-side firms conducted by the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association, which was published in February.
Of those polled, 85% said they wanted to use a single platform, and 55% expected to have one installed within two years.
The pressure is now on technology and systems providers to meet such demands. Although many are developing multi-asset trading platforms none can claim to have a single platform catering for all strategies.
Platforms already exist that allow buy side firms to trade securities alongside derivatives. But, according to Steve Grob, head of derivatives at Fidessa, a UK-based trading systems and market data systems supplier, the goal of being able to trade equities, derivatives, fixed income, bonds and foreign exchange together on one platform “is probably a bit further away”.
According to vendors, one of the difficulties is identifying exactly what is meant by a multi-asset trading platform.
A New York woman whose lawyer said worked at hedge funds was charged with operating a $2-million-a- year prostitution ring, Manhattan prosecutors alleged.
Kristin Davis, 32, was accused of money laundering and promoting prostitution through a ``high-end prostitution ring'' that charged from ``a few hundred to several thousand dollars per hour,'' Assistant District Attorney Artie McConnell said today in state court in Manhattan. Davis, who pleaded not guilty, was ordered held by Justice Charles Tejada because she was unable to make $2 million bail.
Fintag says I would say something crass but I won't. [Editor: What like you wish she had worked for you?]. So she is called Kristen / Kristin too? It is a popular name.
GOLDMAN RECLAIMS MOST OF $2BN IT PUT UP TO BAIL OUT HEDGE FUND
Goldman Sachs has reclaimed 90 per cent of the $2bn it used to bail out one of its troubled hedge funds last summer as the investment bank moved to avoid having to consolidate the fund on its balance sheet.
Goldman withdrew $1.8bn from its Global Equity Opportunities fund at the end of February, its first opportunity under a lock-up agreement made when it invested in August, according to people familiar with the quantitative, or computer-driven, fund. It wrote to investors last week to explain its decision but declined to comment yesterday.
Fintag says So what does this mean actually? They lost USD1.8bn? Have hidden it offshore? Creatively found the monies it had lost?
Outstanding: $4,513 bn [marketable securities only, including TIPS] In “foreign” hands: $2,402 bn At the Fed: $677 bn That leaves only $1,434 bn for U.S investors. Any flight to safety will create “short squeezes.” Net Issuance was negative in january and usually is very negative in april, may and june.
Fintag says Alea is my favorite grown up blog. No cartoons here.
If you want crass tabloid blogging read this: dealbreaker says " Tools Of The Week: Making Your Hedge Fund $$$ "
UNDER PRESSURE - ANOTHER TOP FIRM IN THE SPOTLIGHT
It was Merrill Lynch's turn in the spotlight Tuesday, as analysts revised their views on the firm's immediate prospects. Merrill's shares closed 1.1% down, after Fox-Pitt Kelton analyst David Drone said that the firm is likely to post a first quarter loss, and may end up writing down another $8bn in assets. There are, however, no liquidity concerns.
In the meantime, JPMorgan analysts lowered Merrill's earnings estimates 45%, predicting write-downs of some $5.1bn. UBS analysts are now also predicting that Merrill will post in loss in the first quarter.
And Trader Daily reports that Merrill is about to commence laying off between 10 - 15% of staff in its investment banking unit. Quoting an unnamed 'source familiar with the plans', the website says that up to 300 bankers are likely to be axed in the coming weeks. Directors and Managing Directors are said to be those mostly in the line of fire.
Fintag says Merrills are the next Bear Stearns and I predicted they would buy them out. How stupid can you get. No mistakes so far this year.
finalternatives says " Merrill Prime Brokerage Boosts Clients, Revenue By 50% "
5 comments
anonymous said ...
"This fax is confidential, unauthorised use is forbidden".....
How is Beller going to face standing up in front of a huge audience of hedgies?
27 Mar 08 - 08:56 gmt
ozgerbobble said ...
He's been subbed at the last minute by Paul Findlay from Threadneedle. Should be rivetting.........................
27 Mar 08 - 10:15 gmt
anonymous said ...
Beller, Jabre, Gilbert. Wonderful people.
27 Mar 08 - 10:36 gmt
Finbar said ...
Threadneedle eh? - even more reason not to go
27 Mar 08 - 12:56 gmt
t2k said ...
How much should UK banks be obliged to raise as new risk capital before Mervyn offers any more of UK taxpayers cash to support their dodgy balance sheets? Do I hear £100bn?
facebook
free daily e-mail
feed
