28JAN09:
Q1-09 DOW: 8900
Q2-09 DOW: 7250
Q3-09 DOW: 5810
Q4-09 DOW: 3960
CITI NATIONALIZED
OBAMA GETS SICK 27AUG09:
Mini Crash 21SEP09 Predicted correctly:
Bailout=Bonuses
Demise of Bear Stearns
Demise of Lehman Bros.
Demise of AIG
Subprime would cause problems
Date of 2007 crash
CRAs were to blame
G20 riots were a party
Northern Rock run
Northern Rock Nationalization
HBOS and RBS demise
UBS really was Useless
As time moves on, lifestyle habits change. Cigarette smoking is a dying art form and all we are left with is ashtrays. A bit like banks. Soon we will have empty buildings with nothing but the name on the outside. Museums of the future. According to Goldman this is.
Today's news is up and down so I have decided to have a hello! day. Lots of cartoons and fluff. It's got to better than the carnage that pervades everything I read and touch. If only I was Warren Buffet.
Drawing a sharp distinction between himself and the two Democratic presidential candidates, Senator John McCain of Arizona warned Tuesday against vigorous government action to solve the deepening mortgage crisis and the market turmoil it has caused, saying that “it is not the duty of government to bail out and reward those who act irresponsibly, whether they are big banks or small borrowers.”
Mr. McCain's comments came a day after Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York called for direct federal intervention to help affected homeowners, including a $30 billion fund for states and communities to assist those at risk of foreclosure. Mrs. Clinton's Democratic opponent, Senator Barack Obama of Illinois, has similarly called for greater federal involvement, including creation of a $10 billion relief package to prevent foreclosures.
Fintag says And he is right (boom, boom). Putting sticky plaster on a cancer patient will not do and that is why Bernanke is failing to halt the USA's slide into a serious depression. We warned him 12 months ago but he didn't listen; he got stuck into his 1929 / Keynes books on socialist bailouts being the best for market stability and look where we are now?
All US banks are now underwritten by the US government and it is now become the world's largest hedge fund. Imagine that, George W Bush is the CEO and Bernanke the CIO. Good grief.
Goldman Sachs forecasts global credit losses stemming from the current market turmoil will reach $1.2 trillion, with Wall Street accounting for nearly 40 percent of the losses.
U.S. leveraged institutions, which include banks, brokers-dealers, hedge funds and government-sponsored enterprises, will suffer roughly $460 billion in credit losses after loan loss provisions, Goldman Sachs economists wrote in a research note released late on Monday.
Losses from this group of players are crucial because they have led to a dramatic pullback in credit availability as they have pared lending to shore up their capital and preserve their capital requirements, they said.
Fintag says So the banks have written off only 10% (USD120bn) so far? I feel very sick. This implies that if they wrote off the other 90%, the banks would all be decimated. So you think laying off 30,000 this year is about right? Looks to me like it should be 300,000.
A tough time for head hunters; a great time for authors of "how to get a job" books.
Four hundred people were trapped on the London Eye for more than an hour while engineers fixed a mechanical fault, a spokeswoman for the riverside tourist attraction said on Tuesday.
Sightseers were suspended up to 450 feet above the ground on Monday night as workmen repaired one of the four huge tires that turn the observation wheel.
Staff spoke to visitors over an intercom system fitted in each of the 32 glass pods. They were offered water, blankets and glucose tablets stored in "comfort packs."
Fintag says Sorry but the news is so depressing I thought some light relief was in order
He is some news on Sptizer's addiction:
times says " Rent boys and call girls - my ex-partner's sexual power trip "
New York remains the capital of the burgeoning global hedge fund industry, according to a new report.
Credit Agricole Structured Asset Management's 2007 Industry Report said that, though most hedge funds are domiciled abroad, 60% are based in the U.S. New York alone boasts the principal operations of 25% of the world's almost 10,000 hedge funds.
As of the end of last year, hedge funds managed $2.16 trillion, according to CASAM. Long/short equity is by far the largest strategy, with more than twice the assets of its nearest competitor. The strategy manages $568 billion, compared to $245 billion for event-driven multi-strategy funds and $221 billion for global macro funds.
Fintag says I loved London in 2007 but the affair has ended. Until the socialist mayor and government are removed and more tax payers money is spent on improving the weather, I have fallen for New York again.
(Give me a job - anything for a green card - email: needtoescape@fintag.com)
More good news:
finalternatives says " Pequot Debuts Long/Short Equity Hedge Fund "
Credit-market gridlock has trapped Stephen Schwarzman, who relies on lenders to fund acquisitions, while leaving Warren Buffett free to pursue the debt-free deals that have helped make him the world's richest person.
Buffett, chairman of Omaha, Nebraska-based Berkshire Hathaway Inc., has $US59 billion ($65 billion) in cost-free money from insurance premiums to invest. Schwarzman's New York-based Blackstone Group LP, manager of the biggest private-equity fund, is being forced to bypass Wall Street banks after they stopped financing most leveraged buyouts.
Buffett and Schwarzman each takes a different approach to the same goal: finding companies they consider undervalued. Investors are betting Buffett's model will prevail, at least for now. Berkshire climbed 5.4% since the subprime-lending crisis sent the Standard & Poor's 500 Index tumbling as much as 19.7% from its Oct. 9 peak. Blackstone dropped 43% in the same period.
Fintag says Like the USD? I would suggest the Icelandic Krona where interest rates are 15%. Except the currency has almost collapsed against the dollar. Either way, the Buffoon must be licking his lips in anticipation of all those value stocks that will be hitting his radar in the not so distance future. Lucky him.
The Financial Services Authority is to publish an internal review of how it monitored Northern Rock's financial health prior to its problems last year.
It is expected to disclose shortcomings but not in the financial regulator's overall approach to supervising banks.
One of its conclusions is expected to be that too few regulators were assigned to monitor Northern Rock.
A substantial increase in the amount of money set aside for monitoring banks is expected as a result of the review.
The review, which was carried out by the FSA's director of internal audit, is expected to conclude that too few staff were monitoring Northern Rock at the time its problems began and there was a lack of stability in the supervisory team.
Fintag says After the horse has bolted...looks like the FSA should just turn into the SEC and sue at every opportunity. That way it can add to its art collection.
Hedge funds and institutional investors are starting to launch distressed mortgage funds to take advantage of an “unbelievable” buying opportunity, but they say they are running into resistance from risk-averse prime brokers.
Steve Persky, a principal at Dalton Investments, said his group was starting a distressed mortgage strategy for high net worth and institutional investors. “This is one of the best distressed sector opportunities I have seen in my lifetime,” said Mr Persky, who has been investing for more than 20 years.
“Prices have collapsed to such a level that some securities assume you will never get any capital back....It is an incredible buyers' market. Institutions are desperate to sell. There is such a huge flight to quality, it has gotten very extreme.”
But some investors said it was too soon to start buying distressed mortgages.
Kent Wosepka, who heads absolute return strategies at Standish Asset Management, said: “We have been talking about this for six months but I think it is a bit early. Prices are down a lot, but we're likely to see home prices depreciate by 15 per cent in 2008. There are a few macro things that need to be more firmly in place before we would do a mortgage fund.”
He said Standish had been buying opportunistically, picking up distressed securities at 5 cents in the dollar.
Morgan Stanley's board has come under renewed pressure to take responsibility for the group's recent lapses in risk control after two shareholder advisory firms called for a vote against several directors at next month's annual meeting.
However, both Glass Lewis and Proxy Governance, which advise investors on how to vote at company meetings, backed John Mack, Morgan Stanley's chairman and chief executive, saying shareholders should vote for his re-election.
Mr Mack and two directors, Robert Kidder and Howard Davies, have been under fire from CtW, a coalition of union-backed investment funds, for “risk management failures” that led to $9.4bn in mortgage-related write-downs.
This month, CtW said Mr Mack should not serve as chairman and chief executive and called for the election of a separate chairman - a request that has been rejected by Morgan Stanley
Fintag says Poor old Morgan Stanley. It has a warm comforting exterior but inside all is not well.
THE NEW MANTRA FOR A CLEANER CITY: REGULATION, REGULATION, REGULATION
A demand by Britain's financial watchdog today for dozens more regulators to police the City will have been boosted by the speculative - and illegal - bear raid on HBOS shares last week. That attack has added to growing calls since the start of the credit crunch for a beefed-up regulatory regime.
Gordon Brown and Nicolas Sarkozy will discuss possible reforms of the financial system at their summit this week, while Paul Volcker, the former chairman of the Federal Reserve, America's central bank, made it clear last week that he favoured a policy of tough love for banks. "We're going to lend to them and protect them, shouldn't they be regulated?" he said.
UK Treasury sources said financial reform will be top of the agenda when finance ministers and central bank governors from the G7 meet in Washington next month. Alistair Darling is looking for greater cross-border cooperation to prevent a recurrence of the recent turbulence.
Vince Cable, the Liberal Democrats' Treasury spokesman, agrees there should be a greater role for the G7 and the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, the body that represents 30 rich countries, but says there is a need for more than just greater transparency and accountability.
"There has to be a period of re-regulation. We have highly leveraged institutions such as hedge funds and private equity firms that are essentially pyramid selling and creating a mountain of instability based on debt. That is now unwinding in a dangerous way."
Fintag says Now I am feeling depressed again. Please get me out of this awful country. I am quite handy with wallpaper, can unblock drains and scrub up well when wearing Paul Smith shirts and Lobb shoes? I am a great dinner companion and like to entertain, my preferences are [Editor: You need help]
TAXPAYERS MAY BE LIABLE FOR BILLIONS FROM BEAR, MORTGAGE RESCUE
Even as the Bush administration insists it won't risk public funds in a bailout, American taxpayers may already be liable for billions of dollars stemming from Federal Reserve and Treasury efforts to quell a financial crisis.
History suggests the Fed may not recover some of the almost $30 billion investment in illiquid mortgage securities it received from Bear Stearns Cos., said Joe Mason, a Drexel University professor who has written on banking crises. Treasury's push to have Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac buy more mortgage bonds reduces the capital the government-chartered companies hold in reserve at a time when foreclosures and defaults are surging.
Fintag says As I have been saying but nobody noticed. So here is the cartoon again:
Estate agents today called a 'buyer's market' as the number of potential purchasers fell to the lowest level for almost 20 years.
The National Association of Estate Agents (NAEA) said the number of house buyers dropped from an average of 276 per agent in January to 243 in February 2008 - the lowest figure since 1989/1990.
It said that the numbers of houses available and first-time buyer interest also fell during February as the difference between asking and selling prices continued to widen.
Fintag says Another reason to escape this awful country ...
U.K. HEDGE FUNDS UNAWARE OF VALUATION BEST PRACTICE
There is a lack of consensus about enforcement of standards on the part of U.K.-based hedge funds, according to new research.
The report by Kinetic Partners and the Bank of New York Mellon shows that despite the ongoing credit crunch, more than half of U.K.-based hedge fund managers have little or no awareness of the Alternative Investment Management Association's recommendations on hedge fund valuations.
Specifically, hedge funds managers across the pond were “confused” about AIMA's recommendations and feel that they haven't had a clear impact on the industry. The managers who were against further regulation in this area said that AIMA does not have jurisdiction to set binding rules, and that the cost of implementing these alongside the existing mandatory requirements, could damage the attractiveness of the U.K. as a center for investment managers.
Fintag says Maybe its because we are concentrating on leaving. Non-dom tax, CGT, National Insurance, Red Tape, Congestion Charge, Nobody speaks English, too many French (I can say that because I am English and they say that about us Brits - deep down we love each other to bits), ...[Editor: Enough]
3 comments
ozgerbobble said ...
Have you liberated an ashtray from Scotts yet?
26 Mar 08 - 12:32 gmt
Finbar said ...
Scotts is no smoking but I am sure they have some old stock. I have a Cipriani one if that helps? They are for my cigars ...
26 Mar 08 - 16:01 gmt
ozgerbobble said ...
Very amusing. I had a GF who was a closet klepto and she nicked ashtrays from virtually every decent restaurant she ate in and she didnt even smoke!.............Anyway I see WestHarbor Capital has just gone bust
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